Bourke is a remote town in NSW with a population of 2634 people. In 2013 crime figures from Bourke showed the highest assault, break-ins and car theft rates in NSW with crime spikes mostly occurring during nights and school holidays. Over the past five years, the Aboriginal Community has come together to trial a model for change, called Just Reinvest.
This model illustrates the relationship between Community Factors (which includes social disadvantage, economic issues, family trauma) on Disengaged Youth, Crime and the impact of the Just Reinvest Program. This model particularly illustrates the complexity of factors on outcomes and how factors are interrelated making crime a wicked problem that is not easily viewed in isolation from the socio-economic and social causes.
Stocks
Youth in Burke is set based on Australian Bureau of Statistics levels but is easily modified to track population changes on modelling
Disengaged Youth are those with problematic behaviour
Crime Levels are those Disengaged Youth who go on to commit a crime
Early Intervention Programs are those run through Just Reinvest as part of the community program - the quantity of these can be adjusted.
Data of Note
- Economic Impact is five times cost of running the program
- Justice Impacts are roughly 66% and Non-Justice Impacts make up the remaining 33%.
Assumptions
While the UN defines "Youth" as 15 - 24 year olds, the KPMG report outlines programs for 10 - 24 year olds therefore in the context of Bourke the 10 - 24 year old age bracket is considered "Youths". This has been rounded to 700 people (ABS 2016 Census).
- It is estmated 70% of Bourke Youths will have problematic behaviour with 50% of those going on to commit a crime and be caught
- Cost of Early Intervention Youth Program is estimated at $100 per person per crime
Conclusion
While this model shows the impacts and benefits of additional funding on early intervention programs and the flow on affects this has on crime, it does not take into account the underlying cultural and social disadvantage issues that are often motivators for crime nor does this model take into account issues such as cultural prejudice and bias, over-policing or additional early intervention methods.
