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Circular equations WIP for Runy.

Added several versions of the model. Added a flow to make C increase. Added a factor to be able to change the value 0.5. Older version cloned at IM-46280

Clone of Circularity in Economic models

Runy Calmera

GSGS4610_FastFashion_FinalModel

Lanier Ellison

2 months ago

Scott Page's Aggregation diagram from Complexity and Sociology 2015 article see also IM-9115 and SA IM-1163

Macro micro dynamics

Geoff McDonnell

Overview

The model shows the industry connection and conflict between Forestry and Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. The objective of this simulation is to find out the balance point for co-exist.

How Does the Model Work?

Both industries can provide economic contribution to Tasmania. Firstly, selling timbers through logging would generate income. Also, spendings from mountain bike riders would generate incomes. However, low tree regrowth rate can not cover up logging, which influences the beautiful vistas and riders' experiences. While satisfaction and expectation depend on vistas and experience, the demand of mountain biking would be influenced through repeat visits and world of mouth as well.

Interesting Insights

Although forestry can provide a great amount of economic contribution to Tasmania, over logging goes against ESG framework as well as creating conflict with mountain tourism. As long as the number of rider visits is stable, tourism can always provide a greater economic contribution compared to forestry. Therefore, the government should consider the balance point between two industries.

Simulation of Derby Mountain Bikes versus Forestry

Silong Lou

Based on G.P. Cimellaro et al. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 3639–3649 paper

Facilities Disaster Resilience

Geoff McDonnell

Simple model of the global economy, the global carbon cycle, and planetary energy balance.

The planetary energy balance model is a two-box model, with shallow and deep ocean heat reservoirs. The carbon cycle model is a 4-box model, with the atmosphere, shallow ocean, deep ocean, and terrestrial carbon.

The economic model is based on the Kaya identity, which decomposes CO2 emissions into population, GDP/capita, energy intensity of GDP, and carbon intensity of energy. It allows for temperature-related climate damages to both GDP and the growth rate of GDP.

This model was originally created by Bob Kopp (Rutgers University) in support of the SESYNC Climate Learning Project.

Clone of Simple Climate-Carbon-Economic Model

Ana Belén Ríos CArmona

Ijssel Delta Final

B G

Solow

LUcas van der Velde

Economic Model

Stella Mosher

3. PROBLEMAS e PERGUNTAS SOBRE projetos de SISTEMA INTEGRADO DE GESTÃO CUSTOS , INVESTIMENTOS BASEADO MODELOS MATEMÁTICOS: veja https://docs.google.com/document/d/1oGmItBcErhVF0PWuI37AnpP3n8Up3Zu45W7QB1MMbcY/edit?usp=sharing

Projeto de investimentos , custos e viabilidade econômico de LCC

A planta foi dimensionada para produzir 9.000 Ton/ano da Resina usando o matéria prima

LCC , operando 24h/dia, durante os três turnos por 300 dias/anuais. O preço do produto de projeto de lcc

veja o prova html aula passados

1. Calcule o investimento em planta (If) usando o método rápido e investimento em

equipamento (Ie) baseado no método de lang. Admita valor de N e f1 de acordo com o fluxograma do processo.

Dados fornecidos: Entrada (alimentação)-sólido; Saída-líquido;

Equipamentos principais da produção: Destilador e fermentador.

2. Calcule o investimento fixo total pelo método chilton através das estimativas dos investimentos fixos diretos: Tubulação, instrumentação, estrutura física, planta de serviço e conexões entre unidades; e investimentos fixos indiretos. Tome como base o investimento em equipamentos.

veja dados na prova html simulados sobre fator chiltons , modelos de lang , decico , chiltons e dados na prova html

3. Calcule o custo de mão-de- obra direta e indireta baseando-se no fluxograma de processo , atualizando o valor salário mínimo e nos salários:

Valor do salário mínimo = R$180,00

Engenheiro químico = 10 salários mínimos

Operador industrial = 3 salários mínimos

Administração:

Gerente = 8 salários mínimos

Auxiliar de escritório = 3 salários mínimos

Secretária = 2 salários mínimos

Dados fornecidos: Considere os encargos sociais de 65% sobre o salário base. Mão-de- obra

indireta seja 20% da mão-de- obra direta. O custo de mão-de- obra indireta engloba

manutenção.

4. Calcule os custos fixos abaixo, baseando-se pelo método Sebrae:

Dados

4.1 Depreciação = 10%If

4.2 Manutenção = 3%If

4.3 Seguro = 1%If

4.4 Imposto = 2%If

5. Calcule o custo de consumo anual de matéria-prima de acordo com os dados , veja prova html a seguir

5.2 Calcule o custo unitário de matéria prima sendo 80% do valor do custo total anual da

matéria-prima. , dados , veja na link enunciados e prova html

6. Calcule os custos totais:

6.1 Encargos anuais

6.2 Administração = 0.6 (mão-de- obra direta + mão-de- obra indireta + encargos anuais)

6.3 Suprimentos = 0.15 (Manutenção)

6.4 Calcule os custos fixos

6.5 Calcule os custos variáveis

6.6 Calcule os custos variáveis

* Os custos fixos englobam administração

Custo variável = custo de matéria – prima + custo de utilitários + custo de suprimentos.

Custo de suprimentos é 10% da mão-de- obra direta.

Depreciação = 10% do investimento fixo.

7. Estimar o ponto de equilíbrio em quantidade e em porcentagem baseado em dados obtidos de custo variável unitário) e Custo fixo do problema 06.

8. Estime os itens da análise de investimento:

– Taxa de retorno de engenharia simples

– Tempo de retorno

– % de lucro em relação ao preço de venda

– Lucro após o imposto de renda

– Lucratividade

– Rentabilidade

– Fluxo de caixa

9. Estimar potencial econômico de projeto de perdas devido ao baixo rendimento de operação em nível de 90% de rendimento máximo em vez de 98%.

Dados de consumos de materiais e energia obtidos via uso de calculadora usando quiz html de modelos já apresentados aula passos

NOME E DESCRIÇÃO

LINK

TAMANHO

Prova1validacao.:Investimento Fixo e Tomada de Decisões Rápidas

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184101

33 KB

Prova.2 Validacao .Investimento fixo método Lang

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184144

32 KB

Prova 3 :Investimento Fixo método Chilton

ihttps://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184169

33 KB

Prova4:Custo Fixo

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184189

32 KB

Prova 5::Custo de mao de obra

customaohtm custo de mao de obra

33 KB

Prova 6 Validao : Custo de mat,comb e enegia

CustoMat prima , energia

34 KB

Prova 7 Custo total

custo de operacional de producao

33 KB

Prova 8 Ponto deEquilibrio

ponto de eqilibrioibrio

32 KB

Prova 9:Analise de lucro e beneficios

Fluxo de caixa

33 KB

gestao economical planta resina fenolicas lcc .Modelos e resultados validados validado via planilhas

Pagandai V Pannir Selvam

This model is based off Meadows economic capital with reinforcing growth loop constrained by a renewable resource model.

Tourism Simulator

JP Burklow

4

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Real Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.02

Elliott Hansing

ISCI 360 Project - Stage 2

Our model examines the relationship between two straw types (plastic straws and biodegradable straws) and their impact on the environment and economics. Specifically, we are interested in figuring out whether biodegradable straws are a viable solution to plastic straws.

Our model is broken down into three aspects: Social, Environmental and Economic. Color coding is used to differentiate between the different aspects and is explained below:

Turquoise represents the social aspect.

Purple represents the economic aspects.

Green represents the environmental aspects.

Blue represents other crucial stocks and flows in the model that do not necessarily fit into the three aspects above.

In our model, the Canadian population is assumed to increase steadily until a carrying capacity is reached. This can be seen in the graph as the line increases linearly before plateauing indefinitely. We assumed that we will be able to maintain the population at our carrying capacity due to technological advances.

Social Aspect:

The social aspect refers to the impact that awareness of the detrimental costs of straws can have on the usage of straws. The two flows that contribute to awareness are word of mouth (i.e. your friends and family informing you about the effects of straws and influencing you to stop using them) and media coverage (i.e. the media highlights the effects of straws). Both of these flows are dependent on the Canadian population such that 25% of the Canadian population at any time will be impacted by word of mouth or media coverage. (Side note: since word of mouth and media coverage are dependent on the Canadian population, they will plateau when the population does.) This is an arbitrary number but was chosen to show what a change in perspectives of the Canadian population can do. These flows input into an 'awareness of detrimental effects of using plastic straws' stock that reduces the number of plastic straws being used.

Plastic Straws

According to data from the United States individuals usually use 1.6 straws everyday and thus, we have assumed that to be true in Canada as well. Plastic straws start at a base value (due to the previous straw usage) and grow with the Canadian population while subtracting the awareness component of the model.

Environmental Aspect

Since the decomposition of plastic versus paper is significantly different, the amounts that accumulate in the ocean and landfills can be monitored. In addition, the impact on the environment can be monitored. Since plastic straws take longer to decompose, they have a larger impact on wildlife in the ocean than biodegradable straws. Thus, as the plastic straw usage decreases, the amount of habitat loss occurring plateaus. We have also included the aspect of clean-up in which the plastic from the ocean can be moved to the landfill. You will notice that the habitat loss plateaus but does not decrease. This is because we cannot reverse the damage we have done (without additional rigorous clean-up) but can mitigate additional damage. (Please note that clean-up affects only the stock 'Plastic Straws in the ocean' and thus, does not affect the stock 'habitat loss.' Therefore, clean-up will reduce the number of plastic straws in the ocean and indirectly affect the stock 'habitat loss.' However, it will not clean up the plastic straws already impacting 'habitat loss.')

Economic Aspect

The economic aspect monitors the amount of money it takes to make plastic straws versus biodegradable straws and the amount of money the government needs to fund ocean clean-ups. It can be seen that a the usage of plastic straws decreases, the need for clean-up money from the government decreases. However, there is a base level of damage that has already been done by us and thus, larger scale clean-ups will be needed to reverse that. In other words, smaller clean-ups will mitigate the damage we are currently doing but not reverse the damage we have already done. We can also track the cost of making each straw; it can be seen that biodegradable straws are more expensive to make.

However, the energy required to make the straws is less for biodegradable straws than plastic straws. Thus, there are trade-offs for using biodegradable straws.

Although, biodegradable straws are more expensive, they require less energy to make, decompose faster, require less funding for clean-up and impact the wildlife in the ocean to a lesser degree.

Project Stage 2

Eisha Sharda

Economic Model

Maria Sol Perez Aguirreburualde

BMA708_Assignment 3_Xiaoya Zuo

Xiaoya Zuo

3

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Lindsey Graham's economic policy based on the information at: http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/restore-fiscal-discipline/ http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/ease-tax-and-regulatory-burdens/ http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/achieve-energy-independence/ http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/reform-entitlements/ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

DRAFT IPA of Lindsey Graham Economic Policy

Steve Wallis

PO 2020

Andreas Romppel

Causal loop structure of system dynamics models of the business cycle and the Kondratieff long wave from Gene Bellinger's AI gemini prompts mc and mr Jan2026 From MIT Sloan school work esp Forrester and Sterman

Short and Long Business and Economic Cycles

Geoff McDonnell

5 months ago

THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

THE MODEL IS ZONE SPECIFIC AS GLOBAL WEATHER IS NOT HOMOGENEOUS BUT A COLLECTION OF HEAT BUMBPS DEPENDENT ON POPULATION SIZE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND MASSED CONURBATIONS AND AGGLOMERATIONS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

45

Clone of Pesticide Use in Central America for Lab work

This model is an attempt to simulate what is commonly referred to as the “pesticide treadmill” in agriculture and how it played out in the cotton industry in Central America after the Second World War until around the 1990s.

The cotton industry expanded dramatically in Central America after WW2, increasing from 20,000 hectares to 463,000 in the late 1970s. This expansion was accompanied by a huge increase in industrial pesticide application which would eventually become the downfall of the industry.

The primary pest for cotton production, bol weevil, became increasingly resistant to chemical pesticides as they were applied each year. The application of pesticides also caused new pests to appear, such as leafworms, cotton aphids and whitefly, which in turn further fuelled increased application of pesticides.

The treadmill resulted in massive increases in pesticide applications: in the early years they were only applied a few times per season, but this application rose to up to 40 applications per season by the 1970s; accounting for over 50% of the costs of production in some regions.

The skyrocketing costs associated with increasing pesticide use were one of the key factors that led to the dramatic decline of the cotton industry in Central America: decreasing from its peak in the 1970s to less than 100,000 hectares in the 1990s. “In its wake, economic ruin and environmental devastation were left” as once thriving towns became ghost towns, and once fertile soils were wasted, eroded and abandoned (Lappe, 1998).

Sources: Douglas L. Murray (1994), Cultivating Crisis: The Human Cost of Pesticides in Latin America, pp35-41; Francis Moore Lappe et al (1998), World Hunger: 12 Myths, 2nd Edition, pp54-55.

Clone of ENV 221 - Casual Loop diagramming