Wagdy Samir work in progress. Addition of Bill Mitchell's draft textbook chapter1  See also The value of everything book IM

 Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen. THis can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.

WIP Summary of Michael Thompson's Book See also Marco Verweij's 2011 book Clumsy Solutions for a Wicked World

Assignment Four - Big Data & Marketing Analytics MKT563

Student No : 94040609

Trish Anderson

The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment (JR) project is a community led program that demonstrates how the redirection of government funding into community programs can address underlying issues which lead to crime in the community (KPMG, 2018). This interactive model shows how the redirection of funding from the Justice System into Community Programs improves the rate of year 12 graduates, reduces the number of incidents of domestic violence whilst reducing the number of days spent in custody. This model also shows how investment in Community Programs leads to positive economic impacts for the Community as well as cost savings for the Justice System over time.

 

One of the key findings of the Maranguka JP project found that redirecting funding from the Justice system into the Community has multiple benefits. This model begins with NSW government funding on a scale from 0 to 1000 which can be adjusted using the sliders based on available funding, sliding the scale to the right increases the available funding. The % Community Funding and % Justice System Funding variables can then be adjusted in the sliders to determine how much of the funding goes to the community as a percentage and how much of the available funding gets allocated to the justice system.  

 

Investment into Community Programs is made available by the investments into the Bourke community.  Community Leaders in the Bourke Community develop programs and each program has shown to have a positive impact on the number of students graduating year 12 in the community, the number of domestic violence incidents and the number of days spent in custody.

 

Variables

The current number of Year 12 graduates, the current number of domestic violence incidents and the current number of days in Custody are input into the sliders on the hand panel and the model simulation will show how these figures are impacted through investment in the community over time. These variables also contribute to the growth of Youth Development, Family Strength and Adult Empowerment in the community. These factors result in reinvestment opportunities, which have positive economic impacts on the community. Savings are also passed back to the justice system as underlying issues in the community are addressed over time.

 

The slider scale on the right hand panel uses six adjustable variables to model how the rate of investment in the community can impact the rate of positive impacts in the community and the rate of reinvestment opportunities that can be achieved. Running the simulation will show the larger the % of Community Funding, the faster the results can be seen over time and the greater the economic impact and justice system savings will be. The smaller the % Community Funding will show how impacts are still positive but occur over a longer period of time.

 

% Community Funding and % Justice System are a percentage of funding whereas NSW Government Funding is represented in dollars ($). NSW Government Funding is on a scale from 0 to 1000 but the assumed scale is $000’s, where 1,000 equals $1,000,000.

 

 

Parameter Settings

With community funding, the amount of Year 12 graduates increases by 31% (KPMG, 2018)

With community funding, the number of Domestic Violence incidents decreases by 23% (KPMG, 2018) (KPMG, 2018)

With community funding, the number of days spent in custody decreases by 42% KPMG, 2018)

Reinvestment opportunities contribute to 1/3 of economic impacts back the community where 2/3 of the reinvestment opportunities contribute to savings within the Justice System KPMG, 2018).

 

Assumptions

The rate of impact on year 12 graduating students, Domestic Violence Incidents and Days spent in custody changes at the same rate of % Community Funding available to the community.

 

References

 

Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. (Thompson, G). abc.net.au.

KPMG. (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project Impact Assessment. Retrieved from https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf

there is a distributed net of independent carriers interacting geographically to build continuous supply chain. We model the dynamics of the system, assuming scarcity of available agents, under the condition that the total path must be no longer then X defined economically.

Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen's illustration of Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis "stability begets instability". This can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.

Peak oil will occur when it is too expensive to bring oil to the surface and not when reserves reach their limit. Companies must make a profit to be able to extract oil and stay in the oil business.  However, that endeavour is becoming more and more difficult because of diminishing returns. They have to dig ever deeper to get to the oil  at ever increasing costs, and the oil they find deep down is of a lesser quality.  We have now reached a point where the price needed by oil companies to make a profit and stay in business is far higher than the price  the market can bear. That price is probably about $ 100 per barrel - and rising every year! A market price o $ 100 will almost certainly cause a sharp recession and cause the price of oil to fall back beyond the point of profitability. For example, the combined profit of ExxonMobile, Chevron and Conocophillips fell from 80.4 billion in 2011 to only 3.7 billon in 2016 - see URL below. What the market can bear depends on the spending power of the mass of non-elite workers. The CLD shows the negative feedback loops that prevent oil prices to rise above the level of  affordability. If non-elite workers cannot afford the goods and services offered,  then there will be no demand for them and by extension for oil.  In this situation the market price will not the cover the cost that oil companies need to extract oil. Oil supplies will decline and so will economic activity!

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-blood-bath-continues-in-the-u-s-major-oil-industry/

Extended from Im-628 Supply and demand by adding control folder.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

WIP  based on Where profits come from paper , Nathan Tankus blog and other historical sources

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Based on the Market and Price simulation model in System Zoo 3, Z504. I made some more intrusive changes that make the model more realistic, or more 'economic', in another version 'simplified and improved'.