If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually
become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic
growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most
governments is to impose restrictive
measures when the virus threatens to overwhelm hospital services and to relax these
restrictions as this danger recedes. This is short-sighted. It cannot eliminate
the highly infectious delta variant, which has an estimated R0-value of between
6 & 9. Periodic lockdowns will be hard to avoid in the future.
However, eradication is possible, herd immunity can be achieved
quickly worldwide, reducing the R0 permanently to below 1, which will lead to
the disappearance of the virus. Critical in achieving this is Ivermectin, a medicine
that is cheap, readily available and can
be manufactured by most countries. A recent meta study has shown that Ivermectin,
prophylactically employed, can prevent infection with the virus by 86 % on average – very similar to the efficacy
of vaccines. Eradication will require employment of all the instruments shown
in the graph: future generations do not have to live with this plague.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2
Model based on several references: 1. https://insightmaker.com/insight/4iVOp2JcrDSTBvqjER7pxM/TA-Pemsim-SEIR-Covid-19-Model 2. https://insightmaker.com/insight/5GiU0WZLpKCLGOoe6xeIhT/SEIR-COVID-19-New-Kl-1 3. https://insightmaker.com/insight/DaOeZ0N9RcgU1Q87ofIj8/COVID-19-SEIR-Model-for-Indonesia
