Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that an already very weak and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with
extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the
industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American
economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a
second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global
Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but
emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the
atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight
back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these
aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as
much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period
time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the
furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting
dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture. As events unfold in the next few months, we may discover that it is too late to act, that our reign on this planet has, indeed, come to an abrupt end?
Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2
Model based on several references: 1. https://insightmaker.com/insight/4iVOp2JcrDSTBvqjER7pxM/TA-Pemsim-SEIR-Covid-19-Model 2. https://insightmaker.com/insight/5GiU0WZLpKCLGOoe6xeIhT/SEIR-COVID-19-New-Kl-1 3. https://insightmaker.com/insight/DaOeZ0N9RcgU1Q87ofIj8/COVID-19-SEIR-Model-for-Indonesia
