Based on the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model of disease, this is an upgraded model with more specifc vaeriables.
Government policy includes quarantine and social distance. Quarantine can reduce the exposed people as more people are staying at home, while social distance can reduce the infected people who are exposed.
However, quarantine has negative impact on ecnomic activity. The economic activity also be influenced by the offline shopping sales volume growth rate, online shopping sales volume growth rate and economic growth rate. As most people are staying home for quarantine and less people exposed, thus, the offline shopping sales volume can be much lower than online sales volume.
Insights:
When the growth rate and the number of the recovered is much larger than deaths, the economic activity remain steady growing.
Clone of Yini Song 547059 Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania
This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.
Assumptions
The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.
The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.
Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.
Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)
Economic's parameters
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)
Interesting insight
An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.
Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo. É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.
Dados iniciais de infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.
