Description
Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.
Assumptions
The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.
The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.
Parameters
We set some fixed and adjusted variables.
Covid-19 outbreak's parameter
Fixed parameters: Infection rate, Background disease, recovery rate.
Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.
Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)
Economic's parameters
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)
Interesting insight
An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.
![Initial data from: Italian data [ link ], as of Mar 28 Incubation estimation [ link ] Model focuses on outbreak dynamics and control, this version ignores symptom onset to hospital admission and the rest of recovery dynamics.](https://insightmakercloud-files.storage.googleapis.com/a945023c-0f59-409e-b0a3-460d30361ee8/images/cover.jpg?X-Goog-Algorithm=GOOG4-RSA-SHA256&X-Goog-Credential=insightmakercloud-file-access%40insightmakercloud.iam.gserviceaccount.com%2F20251121%2Fauto%2Fstorage%2Fgoog4_request&X-Goog-Date=20251121T010447Z&X-Goog-Expires=3600&X-Goog-SignedHeaders=host&X-Goog-Signature=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)
