Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

We add simple containment meassures that affect two paramenters, the Susceptible population and the rate to become infected.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.

The validation process hence becomes critical, and allows to estimate the different parameters of the model from the data we obtain. This simulation approach allows to obtain somethings that is crucial to make decisions, the causality. We can infer this from the assumptions that are implicit on the model, and from it we can make decisions to improve the system behavior.

Yes, simulation works with causality and Flows diagrams is one of the techniques we have to draw it graphically, but is not the only one. On https://sdlps.com/projects/documentation/1009 you can review soon the same model but represented in Specification and Description Language.

Using the reading assignment from El-Taliawi and Hartley on using a SSM for COVID-19 follow the steps for SSM to include:

1)  Describe the Problem (unstructured).

2)  Develop a Root Definition for the COVID-19 problem space by identifying the three elements:  what, how, why.   A System to do X, by (means of) Y, in order to achieve Z.

        X - What the system does

        Y -  How it does it

        Z - Why is it being done

(see slide 33 in the Systems Thinking Workshop reading)

3)  Identify the Perspectives (CATWOE)

4)  Develop a basic Systemigram / Rich Picture to tell the story.

Submit your assignment as a Word document or PDF that addresses #1-4.  You can use InsightMaker to create your systemigram or use the Systemitool which you can access at SERC hereLinks to an external site.. 

If you use InsightMaker, try presenting your results as a Story using the Storytelling capabilityLinks to an external site..

You will have TWO WEEKS to complete this assignment (due on March 7th).

Model description:

This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania. It also tell us the impact of economic policies on outbreak models and economic growth.

Variables:

The simulation takes into account the following variables and its adjusting range: 

On the left of the model, the variables are: infection rate( from 0 to 0.25), recovery rate( from 0 to 1), death rate( from 0 to 1), immunity loss rate( from 0 to 1), test rate ( from 0 to 1), which are related to Covid-19.

In the middle of the model, the variables are: social distancing( from 0 to 0.018), lock down( from 0 to 0.015), quarantine( from 0 to 0.015), vaccination promotion( from 0 to 0.019), border restriction( from 0 to 0.03), which are related to governmental policies.

On the right of the model, the variables are: economic growth rate( from 0 to 0.3), which are related to economic growth.

Assumptions:

(1) The model is influenced by various variables and can produce different results. The following values based on the estimation, which differ from actual values in reality.

(2) Here are just five government policies that have had an impact on infection rates in epidemic models. On the other hand, these policies will also have an impact on economic growth, which may be positive or negative.

(3) Governmental policy will only be applied when reported cases are 10 or more. 

(4) This model lists two typical economic activities, namely e-commerce and physical stores. Government policies affect these two types of economic activity separately. They together with economic growth rate have an impact on economic growth.

Enlightening insights:

(1) In the first two weeks, the number of susceptible people will be significantly reduced due to the high infection rate, and low recovery rate as well as government policies. The number of susceptible people fall slightly two weeks later. Almost all declines have a fluctuating downward trend.

(2) Government policies have clearly controlled the number of deaths, suspected cases and COVID-19 cases.

(3) The government's restrictive policies had a negative impact on economic growth, but e-commerce economy, physical stores and economic growth rate all played a positive role in economic growth, which enabled the economy to stay in a relatively stable state during the epidemic.