This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania, death cases, the governmental responses and Burnie local economy.
More importantly, the impact of governmental responses to both Covid-19 infection and to local economy, the impact of death cases to local economy are illustrated.
The model is based on SIR (Susceptible, Infected and recovered) model.
Variables:
The simulation takes into account the following variables:
Variables related to Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): Death rate. (4): Immunity loss rate.
Variables related to Governmental policies: (1): Vaccination mandate. (2): Travel restriction to Burnie. (3): Economic support. (4): Gathering restriction.
Variables related to economic growth: Economic growth rate.
Adjustable variables are listed in the part below, together with the adjusting range.
Assumptions:
(1): Governmental policies are aimed to control(reduce) Covid-19 infections and affect (both reduce and increase) economic growth accordingly.
(2) Governmental policy will only be applied when reported cases are 10 or more.
(3) The increasing cases will negatively influence Burnie economic growth.
Enlightening insights:
(1) Vaccination mandate, when changing from 80% to 100%, doesn't seem to affect the number of death cases.
(2) Governmental policies are effectively control the growing death cases and limit it to 195.
Burnie Tasmania Covid - 19 outbreak simulation Model by Yankang Huang 541 277
Here we have a basic model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.
We add simple containment meassures that affect different paramenters.
The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Hong Kong.
The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.
In this activity show the agent based model or ABM, this activity represent the population and incubation percentage, and move the ink to incubation, included the person, vulnerable, incubation, infected, recuperation, and also recuperated. This model help us to identify where to quickly become infected.
Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo. É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.
Dados diários sobre infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.
Dados diários para o município de Juiz de Fora podem ser obtidos no site da Prefeitura.
Model based on several references: 1. https://insightmaker.com/insight/4iVOp2JcrDSTBvqjER7pxM/TA-Pemsim-SEIR-Covid-19-Model 2. https://insightmaker.com/insight/5GiU0WZLpKCLGOoe6xeIhT/SEIR-COVID-19-New-Kl-1 3. https://insightmaker.com/insight/DaOeZ0N9RcgU1Q87ofIj8/COVID-19-SEIR-Model-for-Indonesia
