Данная модель отражает распространение COVID-19 в России на основе статистики за 2020 год. Модель построена в среде Insight Maker по типу SEIRD (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Dead), с упрощённой динамикой.
Основные параметры:
-Исходное население (масштабировано): 1000 человек
-Заражённые в начале: 2.12% → 21 человек
-Выздоровевшие (Recovery period): через 14 дней
-Смертность: 1.71% от заболевших
-Потеря иммунитета: не учитывается (0%)
-Exogenous (внешнее заражение): 2.12%
-Transmit: 0.3 (зависит от количества заражённых и восприимчивых)
Variant of the model "COVID-19 spread" made by Anxo-Lois Pereira and Miquel Martínez de Morentin, including reinfection, permanent immunity and Vaccines. Made for the subject of TAED.
COVID-19 spread with reinfeccion, permanent immunity and vaccines
This model was designed from SIR model(susceptible, infected, revovered) to find out the effect of covid-19 outbreak into economic outcomes via government policy.
Assumptions
The government policy is triggered when number of infected is more than ten.
The government policies will take negative effect into Covid-19 outbreaks and financial system
Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be change from vaccination rate.
Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)
Economic's parameters
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)
Interesting insight
Increase vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number amount of infected case and a little bit more negative effect to economic system. However economic system still need a long time to recover in both cases.
BMA708_Assignment 3_ndkvo_520272_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy
This model indicate indicates the modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government policies with the effect on the local economy. Model was occurred at Burnie, Tasmania. The model mainly contains three parts: COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, four differences government policies and what the impact on economy from those policies.
Assumptions:
(1) Various variables influence the model, which can result in varied outcomes. The following values are based on an estimate and may differ from actual values. Government initiatives are focused at reducing Covid-19 infections and, as a result, affecting (both positive and negative) economic growth.
(2) 42% of infected people will recovery. 10% of people who are infected will die and the rate relatively higher due to the much old people living in Burnie, Tasmania.
78% of cases get tested.
(3) Government policy will only be implemented when there are ten or more recorded cases. Four government policies have had influences on infection.
(4) The rising number of instances will have a negative impact on Burnie's economic growth.
Insights:
1. As a result of the government's covid 19 rules, fewer people will be vulnerable. Less people going to be susceptible.
2. After the government policy intervention, there is a effectively reduce of infected people.
3. Overall, there is no big differences of economic performance from the graph, might due to the positive and negative effect of economy. And after two weeks, the economy maintained a level of development without much decline.
Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo. É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.
Dados iniciais de infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.
