Here we have a basic model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.
We add simple containment meassures that affect different paramenters.
The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Hong Kong.
The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.
This Model was first developed from the SIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationship between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its influences on the economy as well as well-being of local residents.
Assumptions:
Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;
Government policies reduces the infection and economic growth at the same time.
Interesting Insights:
In the first two weeks, the infected people showed an exponential growth, in another word, that’s the most important period to control the number of people who got affected.
Clone of Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
Pada Tugas 3 mata kuliah Pemodelan Transportasi Laut, ditugaskan untuk membuat pemodelan penyebaran COVID-19 di negara yang dipilih, dan pada simulasi ini merupakan negara Indonesia
Dosen Pengampu : Dr.-Ing Ir Setyo Nugroho
Simulasi Pemodelan Penyebaran COVID-19 di Indonesia
The model here shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie Tasmania, which has impacted in the local economy. the relationship between COVID-19 and economic situation has been shown in the graph. Based on the susceptible and exposed rate, the period of spreading can be controlled by lockdown policy.
Susceptible can be exposed by go out. resident has a possibility to infect and be infected by others. The infection rate, new cases, immunity rate as well as doing exercise can effect the recovery rate. The economy situation is proportionate to the recovery rate. If there are more recovery rate from the pandemic, the economy situation will recover as well.
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that an already very weak and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with
extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the
industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American
economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a
second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global
Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but
emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the
atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight
back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these
aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as
much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period
time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the
furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting
dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture. As events unfold in the next few months, we may discover that it is too late to act, that our reign on this planet has, indeed, come to an abrupt end?
Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences
