Based on the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model of disease, this is an upgraded model with more specifc vaeriables.
Government policy includes quarantine and social distance. Quarantine can reduce the exposed people as more people are staying at home, while social distance can reduce the infected people who are exposed.
However, quarantine has negative impact on ecnomic activity. The economic activity also be influenced by the offline shopping sales volume growth rate, online shopping sales volume growth rate and economic growth rate. As most people are staying home for quarantine and less people exposed, thus, the offline shopping sales volume can be much lower than online sales volume.
Insights:
When the growth rate and the number of the recovered is much larger than deaths, the economic activity remain steady growing.
Clone of Yini Song 547059 Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania
This stock-flow simulation model is to show Covid-19 virus spread rate, sources of spreading and safety measures followed by all the countries affected around the world.
The simulation also aims at predicting for how much more period of time the virus will persist, how many people could recover at what kind of rate and also about the virus toughness dependence based on its excessive speed, giving rise to bigger numbers day-by-day.
Variant of the model "COVID-19 spread" made by Anxo-Lois Pereira and Miquel Martínez de Morentin, including reinfection, permanent immunity and Vaccines. Made for the subject of TAED.
COVID-19 spread with reinfeccion, permanent immunity and vaccines
Here we have a basic model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.
We add simple containment meassures that affect different paramenters.
The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Hong Kong.
The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.
