SIR model with deaths by disease. We are working on the
speficication of this model for it to represent the global development
of the COVID-19 pandemic. This project is ongoing under the
responsibility of PPGEA Pandemics Task Force Team, from Universidade
Federal de Viçosa - UFV.
This stock-flow simulation model is to show Covid-19 virus spread rate, sources of spreading and safety measures followed by all the countries affected around the world.
The simulation also aims at predicting for how much more period of time the virus will persist, how many people could recover at what kind of rate and also about the virus toughness dependence based on its excessive speed, giving rise to bigger numbers day-by-day.
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government policy impacts the economy. The possible phases when the infectious disease spreads in Burnie can be labelled as Susceptible, Infection and Recovery, which are main factors in the model. It is concluded that the government policy can reduce the infectious disease and also the impact in the overall economy.
Assumption
The Government Healthy Policy will affect the decrease in the infection and economy growth rate at the same time.
The Government Health Policy is only triggered when there are more than 10 cases
The increase in number of COVID-19 cases can affect negatively towards the economic growth.
Interesting Insights:
The Government's vaccination promote will reduce the possibility of spreading the infectious disease.
When vaccination rate increase, the dead, infected people and susceptible group will all decrease. This reveals that the crucial role in government's vaccination promote program.
When there is more than 10 confirmed cases, the government policies can effectively reduce the infections and the overall economic activities.
