Pada Tugas 3 mata kuliah Pemodelan Transportasi Laut, ditugaskan untuk membuat pemodelan penyebaran COVID-19 di negara yang dipilih, dan pada simulasi ini merupakan negara Indonesia
Dosen Pengampu : Dr.-Ing Ir Setyo Nugroho
Simulasi Pemodelan Penyebaran COVID-19 di Indonesia
Here we have a basic model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.
We add simple containment meassures that affect different paramenters.
The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Hong Kong.
The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.
This model can be used to investigate how government interventions affect transmission and mortality associated with COVID-19 during an outbreak, and how these interventions impact on the economic activities in Burnie, Tasmania.
Assumptions can be made that effective government intervention can reduce the number of people infected, whereas the local economy is severely impacted.
Insights:
1. When COVID-19 case are more than 10, government policy will be triggered.
2. Testing rate is very crucial to understanding the spread of the pandemic and responding appropriately.
BMA708_Marketing insights_Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania_Jing XU
This model simulates the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie, the government reactions, as well as the economic impact. The government's strategy is based on the number of COVID-19 cases reported and testing rates and recovered.
Assumptions
In the same trend that government policy decreases infection, it also reduces economic growth.
When there are ten or fewer COVID-19 cases reported, government policy is triggered.
The economy suffers as a result of an increase in COVID-19 cases.
Interesting insights
The higher testing rates appear to result in a more quick government response, resulting in fewer infectious cases. However, it has a negative influence on the economy.
Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania - Xiaoqing Ren 525418
