This model is to explain the COVID-19 outbreak in Brunie Island, Tasmania, Australia, and the relationship between it and the government policies , also with the local economy.
This model is upgraded on the basis of the SIR model and adds more variables.
A large number of COVID-19 cases will have a negative impact on the local economy. But if the number of cases is too small, it will have no impact on the macro economy
Government policy will help control the growth of COVID-19 cases by getting people tested.
BMA708 Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie island. Ming Liu 501335
Данная модель отражает распространение COVID-19 в России на основе статистики за 2020 год. Модель построена в среде Insight Maker по типу SEIRD (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Dead), с упрощённой динамикой.
Основные параметры:
-Исходное население (масштабировано): 1000 человек
-Заражённые в начале: 2.12% → 21 человек
-Выздоровевшие (Recovery period): через 14 дней
-Смертность: 1.71% от заболевших
-Потеря иммунитета: не учитывается (0%)
-Exogenous (внешнее заражение): 2.12%
-Transmit: 0.3 (зависит от количества заражённых и восприимчивых)
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2
This model describes the whole process about government response and economic impact when the covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. When the reported cases increase to a certain level, the government realizes its high risk, then publishes a series of policies to protect the public, such as travel restriction, social distance and quarantine. The economic damage is also severe, especially for tourism and hostility industry and retail industry.
Clearly, in the beginning, the number of infected people and death cases increase sharply, but due to government policies and vaccination, it effectively reduces covid-19 cases. For economy, on one hand, the government health policies slow down the pace of growth, on the other hand, the government build vaccine confidence, which leads to more people getting vaccinated, and help the economy back to normal.
