The model here shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie Tasmania, which has impacted in the local economy. the relationship between COVID-19 and economic situation has been shown in the graph. Based on the susceptible and exposed rate, the period of spreading can be controlled by lockdown policy.
Susceptible can be exposed by go out. resident has a possibility to infect and be infected by others. The infection rate, new cases, immunity rate as well as doing exercise can effect the recovery rate. The economy situation is proportionate to the recovery rate. If there are more recovery rate from the pandemic, the economy situation will recover as well.
This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania, death cases, the governmental responses and Burnie local economy.
More importantly, the impact of governmental responses to both Covid-19 infection and to local economy, the impact of death cases to local economy are illustrated.
The model is based on SIR (Susceptible, Infected and recovered) model.
Variables:
The simulation takes into account the following variables:
Variables related to Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): Death rate. (4): Immunity loss rate.
Variables related to Governmental policies: (1): Vaccination mandate. (2): Travel restriction to Burnie. (3): Economic support. (4): Gathering restriction.
Variables related to economic growth: Economic growth rate.
Adjustable variables are listed in the part below, together with the adjusting range.
Assumptions:
(1): Governmental policies are aimed to control(reduce) Covid-19 infections and affect (both reduce and increase) economic growth accordingly.
(2) Governmental policy will only be applied when reported cases are 10 or more.
(3) The increasing cases will negatively influence Burnie economic growth.
Enlightening insights:
(1) Vaccination mandate, when changing from 80% to 100%, doesn't seem to affect the number of death cases.
(2) Governmental policies are effectively control the growing death cases and limit it to 195.
Burnie Tasmania Covid - 19 outbreak simulation Model by Yankang Huang 541 277
This model is to explain the COVID-19 outbreak in Brunie Island, Tasmania, Australia, and the relationship between it and the government policies , also with the local economy.
This model is upgraded on the basis of the SIR model and adds more variables.
A large number of COVID-19 cases will have a negative impact on the local economy. But if the number of cases is too small, it will have no impact on the macro economy
Government policy will help control the growth of COVID-19 cases by getting people tested.
BMA708 Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie island. Ming Liu 501335
