This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania, death cases, the governmental responses and Burnie local economy.
More importantly, the impact of governmental responses to both Covid-19 infection and to local economy, the impact of death cases to local economy are illustrated.
The model is based on SIR (Susceptible, Infected and recovered) model.
Variables:
The simulation takes into account the following variables:
Variables related to Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): Death rate. (4): Immunity loss rate.
Variables related to Governmental policies: (1): Vaccination mandate. (2): Travel restriction to Burnie. (3): Economic support. (4): Gathering restriction.
Variables related to economic growth: Economic growth rate.
Adjustable variables are listed in the part below, together with the adjusting range.
Assumptions:
(1): Governmental policies are aimed to control(reduce) Covid-19 infections and affect (both reduce and increase) economic growth accordingly.
(2) Governmental policy will only be applied when reported cases are 10 or more.
(3) The increasing cases will negatively influence Burnie economic growth.
Enlightening insights:
(1) Vaccination mandate, when changing from 80% to 100%, doesn't seem to affect the number of death cases.
(2) Governmental policies are effectively control the growing death cases and limit it to 195.
Burnie Tasmania Covid - 19 outbreak simulation Model by Yankang Huang 541 277
