This model simulates the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie, the government reactions, as well as the economic impact. The government's strategy is based on the number of COVID-19 cases reported and testing rates and recovered.
Assumptions
In the same trend that government policy decreases infection, it also reduces economic growth.
When there are ten or fewer COVID-19 cases reported, government policy is triggered.
The economy suffers as a result of an increase in COVID-19 cases.
Interesting insights
The higher testing rates appear to result in a more quick government response, resulting in fewer infectious cases. However, it has a negative influence on the economy.
Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania - Xiaoqing Ren 525418
Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo. É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.
Dados diários sobre infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.
Dados diários para o município de Juiz de Fora podem ser obtidos no site da Prefeitura.
Данная модель отражает распространение COVID-19 в России на основе статистики за 2020 год. Модель построена в среде Insight Maker по типу SEIRD (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Dead), с упрощённой динамикой.
Основные параметры:
-Исходное население (масштабировано): 1000 человек
-Заражённые в начале: 2.12% → 21 человек
-Выздоровевшие (Recovery period): через 14 дней
-Смертность: 1.71% от заболевших
-Потеря иммунитета: не учитывается (0%)
-Exogenous (внешнее заражение): 2.12%
-Transmit: 0.3 (зависит от количества заражённых и восприимчивых)
This model is to explain the COVID-19 outbreak in Brunie Island, Tasmania, Australia, and the relationship between it and the government policies , also with the local economy.
This model is upgraded on the basis of the SIR model and adds more variables.
A large number of COVID-19 cases will have a negative impact on the local economy. But if the number of cases is too small, it will have no impact on the macro economy
Government policy will help control the growth of COVID-19 cases by getting people tested.
BMA708 Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie island. Ming Liu 501335
