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Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Pagandai V Pannirselvam
Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups
The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach. 
This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. 
Important Variables:1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition
Other Variables:4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer5. Total Available Market : Total available market size6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Startup Business Forecasting Sales

  • 4 years 1 week ago

Clone of To Be Business and Technology Architecture

Pagandai V Pannirselvam

​Purpose
Enables the different components in the 5 capability model in a visual manner for Enterprise and Business Architecture stakeholders.  

5 Capability Model
The 5 capability model has many stock and flow children which each organization will need to model based on their current state.  

Semantic

Getting terms to align to the generic objects can be a trying task, unless you simply list the stakeholders "semantic" term below the stakeholder in the presentation layer by order shown in the business process management section above the capability management group.  



Business Technology Quality 5 Capability Model Application As Is To Be Enterprise And Business Architecture

  • 2 years 11 months ago

Clone of Seeing the forest for the trees example

Bechara Assouad
This is a model which attempts to replicate a simple reinforcing loop described by Dennis Sherwood on page 75-87 of his book 'Seeing the forest for the trees - a manager's guide to applying systems thinking.

This is not a realistic model but I just wanted to reproduce it as practice of implementing causal loop models.

www.stantonattree.com

Dennis Sherwood Business Reinforcing Loop Seeing The Forest For The Trees A Managers Guide Applying Systems Thinking.www.stantonattree.com

  • 2 years 10 months ago

Clone of Clone of OSCON 2017: Help Desk - True Cost Impact of Improper Escalation

Pagandai V Pannirselvam
​The Problem: What is the true cost of escalating too many Tier 1/Level 1 tickets to Level 2/3 engineers?
Things to measure: How does this impact:1. (MONEY) Cost per incident - what does this cost the business? 2. (TIME) Service Level - how does this impact desired service levels/SLAs? 3. (PEOPLE) Agent utilization - how does this impact backlog? are we overworking engineers? Does this contribute to staff burnout?

Business Help Desk Technology

  • 3 years 1 week ago

Optim Inv Copia

Antonio Medrano
Multi-echelon inventory optimization (sounds like a complicated phrase!) looks at the way we are placing the inventory buffers in the supply chain. The traditional practice has been to compute the safety stock looking at the lead times and the standard deviation of the demand at each node of the supply chain. The so called classical formula computes safety stock at each node as Safety Stock = Z value of the service level* standard deviation * square root (Lead time). Does it sound complicated? It is not. It is only saying, if you know how much of the variability is there from your average, keep some 'x' times of that variability so that you are well covered. It is just the maths in arriving at it that looks a bit daunting. 
While we all computed safety stock with the above formula and maintained it at each node of the supply chain, the recent theory says, you can do better than that when you see the whole chain holistically. 
Let us say your network is plant->stocking point-> Distributor-> Retailer. You can do the above safety stock computation for 95% service level at each of the nodes (classical way of doing it) or compute it holistically. This simulation is to demonstrate how multi-echelon provides better service level & lower inventory.  The network has only one stocking point/one distributor/one retailer and the same demand & variability propagates up the supply chain. For a mean demand of 100 and standard deviation of 30 and a lead time of 1, the stock at each node works out to be 149 units (cycle stock + safety stock) for a 95% service level. You can start with 149 units at each level as per the classical formula and see the product shortage. Then, reduce the safety stock at the stocking point and the distributor levels to see the impact on the service level. If it does not get impacted, it means, you can actually manage with lesser inventory than your classical calculations. 
That's what your multi-echelon inventory optimization calculations do. They reduce the inventory (compared to classical computations) without impacting your service levels. 
Hint: Try with the safety stocks at distributor (SS_Distributor) and stocking point (SS_Stocking Point) as 149 each. Check the number of stock outs in the simulation. Now, increase the safety stock at the upper node (SS_stocking point) slowly upto 160. Correspondingly keep decreasing the safety stock at the distributor (SS_Distributor). You will see that for the same #stock outs, by increasing a little inventory at the upper node, you can reduce more inventory at the lower node.

Business Logistics Supply Chain

  • 3 months 3 weeks ago

Clone of AGILE 2017: True Cost of Escalation

sub cribed
​The Problem: What is the true cost of escalation?
Things to measure: How does this impact:1. (MONEY) Cost per incident - what does this cost the business? 2. (TIME) Service Level - how does this impact desired service levels/SLAs? 3. (PEOPLE) Agent utilization - how does this impact backlog? are we overworking engineers? Does this contribute to staff burnout?

Business Help Desk Technology

  • 2 years 9 months ago

Clone of OSCON 2017: Help Desk - True Cost Impact of Improper Escalation

Adam Abrahami
​The Problem: What is the true cost of escalating too many Tier 1/Level 1 tickets to Level 2/3 engineers?
Things to measure: How does this impact:1. (MONEY) Cost per incident - what does this cost the business? 2. (TIME) Service Level - how does this impact desired service levels/SLAs? 3. (PEOPLE) Agent utilization - how does this impact backlog? are we overworking engineers? Does this contribute to staff burnout?

Business Help Desk Technology

  • 2 years 5 months ago

Clone of OSCON 2017: Help Desk - True Cost Impact of Improper Escalation

Pagandai V Pannirselvam
​The Problem: What is the true cost of escalating too many Tier 1/Level 1 tickets to Level 2/3 engineers?
Things to measure: How does this impact:1. (MONEY) Cost per incident - what does this cost the business? 2. (TIME) Service Level - how does this impact desired service levels/SLAs? 3. (PEOPLE) Agent utilization - how does this impact backlog? are we overworking engineers? Does this contribute to staff burnout?

Business Help Desk Technology

  • 4 years 1 week ago

Clone of Simple Retail Sector (tweaked)

David Horgan
Original (more DYNAMO-like) version is here: http://insightmaker.com/insight/14464

The Simple Retail Sector model from Section 1.7 of DYNAMO User's Manual by Alexander L Pugh III, which is adapted from one from Industrial Dynamics by Jay Forrester.
http://www.amazon.com/DYNAMO-Manual-Edition-System-Dynamics/dp/0262660296 (I bought the 5th edition without realising there was a later one, hopefully it's still the same model in there.)

DYNAMO Retail Business

  • 2 years 2 months ago

Clone of OSCON 2017: Help Desk - True Cost Impact of Improper Escalation

sub cribed
​The Problem: What is the true cost of escalating too many Tier 1/Level 1 tickets to Level 2/3 engineers?
Things to measure: How does this impact:1. (MONEY) Cost per incident - what does this cost the business? 2. (TIME) Service Level - how does this impact desired service levels/SLAs? 3. (PEOPLE) Agent utilization - how does this impact backlog? are we overworking engineers? Does this contribute to staff burnout?

Business Help Desk Technology

  • 2 years 11 months ago

Clone of Clone of 2 Sided Marketplace with Churn

David Horgan

Simple Bass diffusion modified from Sterman Business Dynamics Ch9. Compare with the SI infectious disease model Insight 584, to which we added churn and duplicated it to model a 2 sided marketplace..

In this 2-sided market model -- take etsy for example --  the adoption rate of end users is also a factor of how many vendors the company has on-boarded.  You can control the impact on end user adoption via the Choice Impact Factor.

Conversely,  the rate at which vendors will be on-boarded is a factor of the perceived opportunity they have to sell their wares.  You can control the rate at which suppliers are on-boarded via the Opportunity Impact Factor.

Copyright 2016 Whatifics Pte Ltd

Business Technology Diffusion Ecommerce

  • 1 year 9 months ago

Clone of Clone of AGILE 2017: True Cost of Escalation

sub cribed
​The Problem: What is the true cost of escalation?
Things to measure: How does this impact:1. (MONEY) Cost per incident - what does this cost the business? 2. (TIME) Service Level - how does this impact desired service levels/SLAs? 3. (PEOPLE) Agent utilization - how does this impact backlog? are we overworking engineers? Does this contribute to staff burnout?

Business Help Desk Technology

  • 2 years 9 months ago

Clone of OSCON 2017: Help Desk - True Cost Impact of Improper Escalation

r mud
​The Problem: What is the true cost of escalating too many Tier 1/Level 1 tickets to Level 2/3 engineers?
Things to measure: How does this impact:1. (MONEY) Cost per incident - what does this cost the business? 2. (TIME) Service Level - how does this impact desired service levels/SLAs? 3. (PEOPLE) Agent utilization - how does this impact backlog? are we overworking engineers? Does this contribute to staff burnout?

Business Help Desk Technology

  • 2 years 4 months ago

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