This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.  We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale websi
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

Improvement Science as one of the clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery using  complex decision technologies IM-17952
Improvement Science as one of the clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery using complex decision technologies IM-17952
Summary of Ray Pawson's Book The Science of Evaluation: A Realist Manifesto See also  lse review  2013
Summary of Ray Pawson's Book The Science of Evaluation: A Realist Manifesto See also lse review 2013
6 months ago
Overview of Evaluation Approaches from Pawson and Tilley's  Book  comparing Realist, Constructivist, Experimental and Pragmatic Evaluation Approaches. Combined with Van de Ven's Alternative Philosophies of Science in his Engaged Scholarship  book . See also Burrell and Morgan's research paradigms  v
Overview of Evaluation Approaches from Pawson and Tilley's Book comparing Realist, Constructivist, Experimental and Pragmatic Evaluation Approaches. Combined with Van de Ven's Alternative Philosophies of Science in his Engaged Scholarship book. See also Burrell and Morgan's research paradigms video
From
Roy Bhaskar et al  Book  Interdisciplinarity and climate change: transforming
knowledge and practice for our global future 
From Roy Bhaskar et al Book Interdisciplinarity and climate change: transforming knowledge and practice for our global future 
 Adapted from Pawson and Tilley (1997) and Ratze et al. (2007) by Rosie Sadsad for a forthcoming  book chapter . Contextual factors, mechanisms and outcomes are conceptualised as holons. Their state may change over time (t) and across levels of organisation (l). Holons are components and form part o
Adapted from Pawson and Tilley (1997) and Ratze et al. (2007) by Rosie Sadsad for a forthcoming book chapter. Contextual factors, mechanisms and outcomes are conceptualised as holons. Their state may change over time (t) and across levels of organisation (l). Holons are components and form part of a compound holon. Holons are connected by weak or strong links.
​See also Realist Evaluation IM-1713 and Holon wikipedia and Multiscale modelling process IM-10070
6 months ago
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.  We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale websi
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

A decent match to the data is made with
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate Factor = 0.0203
Moose Death Rate Factor = 1.08
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is MDRF*Sqrt(M*W)
Wolf birth flow is WBRF*Sqrt(M*W)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

 Addition of multilevel system dynamics to the context mechanism outcome realist evaluation framework of Pawson and Tilley. See also multilevel holons  IM-3546

Addition of multilevel system dynamics to the context mechanism outcome realist evaluation framework of Pawson and Tilley. See also multilevel holons IM-3546



3 6 months ago
  Model Explanation       

 The model to be simulate the possible
crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of
alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here
the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of the interested participated
on t

Model Explanation


The model to be simulate the possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of the interested participated on the community activities which government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore they can specified on the reduce the rate of criminal activity. 

Assumption:

The assumption of the 2530 youth of the Bourke n the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based on the factor presented, no external influences

Variable:

Alienation includes any factors that can increase the like hood of youth to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background community engagement expenditure is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of growth detention policing is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided.

Stocks: 

conviction rate is set to 60% A growth detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 months the top 30% of the most server offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke assuming in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crime community activities are set to last 3 months to be calculating the align with the seasons: sporting club of the growth of community participants have 20% change of being disengaged as it may not align with their interests investments into policing are felt immediately & community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months. 

Finding the interest:

1. Alienation of the set maximum value is 0.2, policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation where by all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into growth detention even after a base value on the 500 youth placed into growth detention- this shouts that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youth as they overrun brouke.

2.  Set of community activity they can identified the 0.01 policing to max & alienation to max. The lack of social crime has caused much trouble among young people. The Police Immigration Police has not been deployed to the city of town, which has such a crime rate. Growth prevention can only last a long time, and all young people cannot be rehabilitated, so if they continue to commit crimes.

3. It plays an important role in considering the crime of young people. In order to keep the criminal activity minimal, the bulk of the budgets in police and social involvement among young people must be put at risk. Realistically, budget in a small town is an important factor, it may be engagement. 

4. To be set the police value 0.2, and engaged alienation expenditure value 0.04 of the community activities that can use of improve the youth in town of Bourke





 

A launchpad to tie together some ideas about Reality. See  wikipedia
A launchpad to tie together some ideas about Reality. See wikipedia
Based on a  book  chapter by Rosemarie Sadsad based on her  PhD Thesis . See also other Insights tagged Multiscale and Realist (  IM-3546  and IM-3834 are embedded here)
Based on a book chapter by Rosemarie Sadsad based on her PhD Thesis. See also other Insights tagged Multiscale and Realist ( IM-3546 and IM-3834 are embedded here)
8 months ago
WIP Understanding pathways to observed effects complex causation Pathways Moving to Opportunity NYC example from Nate Osgood's big data lecture  youtube video  Feb 2017 Sydney.
WIP Understanding pathways to observed effects complex causation Pathways Moving to Opportunity NYC example from Nate Osgood's big data lecture youtube video Feb 2017 Sydney.
 IM-1175 with computable arguments, based on ideas from Micropublications  paper  about Claims, Evidence, Representations and Context Networks

IM-1175 with computable arguments, based on ideas from Micropublications paper about Claims, Evidence, Representations and Context Networks

7 months ago
 Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.      With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.     We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:
 Modified from Sterman (2006)  article  and Gene Bellinger's Assumptions  IM-351  by Dr Rosemarie Sadsad UNSW See also  Complex Decision Technologies IM  and  IM-63975

Modified from Sterman (2006) article and Gene Bellinger's Assumptions IM-351 by Dr Rosemarie Sadsad UNSW See also Complex Decision Technologies IM and IM-63975

3 6 months ago
 Documentation       The Insight shown demonstrates how demand and supply in a real estate market can affect pricing.      Demand, Supply and Price have been represented by stocks. Each has an inflow where it has an increase in stock, and a corresponding outflow where stock is decreased.      Linkin
Documentation

The Insight shown demonstrates how demand and supply in a real estate market can affect pricing. 

Demand, Supply and Price have been represented by stocks. Each has an inflow where it has an increase in stock, and a corresponding outflow where stock is decreased. 

Linking each stock and flow is a variable that changes that which it is linked to. These have been labelled appropriately. Each variable takes a decimal value and multiplies it with that it is linked to, such as the rate of demand affecting the price set as 0.001*Demand. This is to generate the loops required to show the rise and fall in price, demand and supply.

Adjustments can be made to the price, supply and demand stocks to simulate different scenarios. Price can be between 400 (400,000) and 1000 (1,000,000) in accordance to average housing prices. Demand and supply can be between 0 (0%) and 100 (100%), although having these set as realistic figures will demonstrate the simulation best. 

Each simulation can be focused on how either demand and price interact over time or supply and price. These are shown in different tabs. 

When the simulation is carried out, the way in which demand and supply rates affect pricing can be seen. Demand and supply are shown with price following shortly after with a slight delay, since changes in market behavior does not immediately affect prices of housing. 

It should also be noted that the lines that represent each stock do not directly reflect the prices of housing in reality. Prices do not fluctuate so rapidly from 400 to near 0 like they do on the graph, however these are just representations of the interactions between each stock in a marketplace.
A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also  Complex Decision Technologies IM  Interventions and leverage points added in  IM-1400  (complex!) 
A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM
Interventions and leverage points added in IM-1400 (complex!)