A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM

WIP Book Summary

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

WIP to explain iterative modelling of linkages over space and time see also causal pathways IM

Summary of Ray Pawson's Book The Science of Evaluation: A Realist Manifesto See also lse review 2013

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

Overview of Evaluation Approaches from Pawson and Tilley's Book comparing Realist, Constructivist, Experimental and Pragmatic Evaluation Approaches. Combined with Van de Ven's Alternative Philosophies of Science in his Engaged Scholarship book. See also Burrell and Morgan's research paradigms video

​See also Realist Evaluation IM-1713 and Holon wikipedia and Multiscale modelling process IM-10070

Marketing cost model

Working model of Yellowstone dynamics created by students in Ecology 2015 at McDaniel College.​ This class collaboration is the first attempt by these students to develop a functioning model that includes competition, disease, predation, invasives and impacts of environmental variables on the major species over the last 30 years.
Although we are attempting to create a realistic model, we are not researchers and depend on varied data sources for coefficients.

Addition of multilevel system dynamics to the context mechanism outcome realist evaluation framework of Pawson and Tilley. See also multilevel holons IM-3546

Inference Robustness Assessment entails demonstrating that the ways a model differs from the real world do not affect model based inferences. From Jim Koopman's work on Infection Transmission Science esp Biological Networks Book Ch 13 p 453-4 and this accessible paper pdf

WIP Understanding pathways to observed effects complex causation Pathways Moving to Opportunity NYC example from Nate Osgood's big data lecture youtube video Feb 2017 Sydney.

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

A decent match to the data is made with
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate Factor = 0.0203
Moose Death Rate Factor = 1.08
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is MDRF*Sqrt(M*W)
Wolf birth flow is WBRF*Sqrt(M*W)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

Documentation

From Roy Bhaskar et al Book Interdisciplinarity and climate change: transforming knowledge and practice for our global future 

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

Based on a book chapter by Rosemarie Sadsad based on her PhD Thesis. See also other Insights tagged Multiscale and Realist ( IM-3546 and IM-3834 are embedded here)

A launchpad to tie together some ideas about Reality. See wikipedia

An overview of Thomas A Goudge's Book on The Thought of CS Peirce Dover NY 1950 and Thomas Knight's Book Charles Peirce NY 1965. See also causality insight

Simulate an impact of an asteroid of any Diameter at any given Speed!