A launchpad to tie together some ideas about Reality. See  wikipedia
A launchpad to tie together some ideas about Reality. See wikipedia
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.  Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.  Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.
Attempts to model in the social dynamics of returning players
Attempts to model in the social dynamics of returning players
Overview of Evaluation Approaches from Pawson and Tilley's  Book  comparing Realist, Constructivist, Experimental and Pragmatic Evaluation Approaches. Combined with Van de Ven's Alternative Philosophies of Science in his Engaged Scholarship  book . See also Burrell and Morgan's research paradigms  v
Overview of Evaluation Approaches from Pawson and Tilley's Book comparing Realist, Constructivist, Experimental and Pragmatic Evaluation Approaches. Combined with Van de Ven's Alternative Philosophies of Science in his Engaged Scholarship book. See also Burrell and Morgan's research paradigms video
8 months ago
Summary of Ray Pawson's Book The Science of Evaluation: A Realist Manifesto See also  lse review  2013
Summary of Ray Pawson's Book The Science of Evaluation: A Realist Manifesto See also lse review 2013
4 months ago
Attempts to model in the social dynamics of  Pavilion host aquisition
Attempts to model in the social dynamics of  Pavilion host aquisition
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.  We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale websi
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

Based on a  book  chapter by Rosemarie Sadsad based on her  PhD Thesis . See also other Insights tagged Multiscale and Realist (  IM-3546  and IM-3834 are embedded here)
Based on a book chapter by Rosemarie Sadsad based on her PhD Thesis. See also other Insights tagged Multiscale and Realist ( IM-3546 and IM-3834 are embedded here)
5 months ago
This simulation allows you to compare different approaches to influence flow, the Flow Times and the throughput of a work process.   By adjusting the sliders below you can    observe the work process  without  any work in process limitations ( WIP Limits ),   with process step specific WIP Limits* (
This simulation allows you to compare different approaches to influence flow, the Flow Times and the throughput of a work process.

By adjusting the sliders below you can 
  • observe the work process without any work in process limitations (WIP Limits), 
  • with process step specific WIP Limits* (work state WIP limits), 
  • or you may want to see the impact of the Tameflow approach with Kanban Token and Replenishment Token 
  • or see the impact of the Drum-Buffer-Rope** method. 
* Well know in (agile) Kanban
** Known in the physical world of factory production

The "Tameflow approach" using Kanban Token and Replenishment Token as well as the Drum-Buffer-Rope method take oth the Constraint (the weakest link of the work process) into consideration when pulling in new work items into the delivery "system". 

You can also simulate the effects of PUSH instead of PULL. 

Feel free to play around and recognize the different effects of work scheduling methods. 

If you have questions or feedback get in touch via twitter @swilluda

The work flow itself
Look at the simulation as if you would look on a kanban board

The simulation mimics a "typical" software delivery process. 

From left to right you find the following ten process steps. 
  1. Input Queue (Backlog)
  2. Selected for work (waiting for analysis or work break down)
  3. Analyse, break down and understand
  4. Waiting for development
  5. In development
  6. Waiting for review
  7. In review
  8. Waiting for deployment
  9. In deployment
  10. Done
 Addition of multilevel system dynamics to the context mechanism outcome realist evaluation framework of Pawson and Tilley. See also multilevel holons  IM-3546

Addition of multilevel system dynamics to the context mechanism outcome realist evaluation framework of Pawson and Tilley. See also multilevel holons IM-3546



3 4 months ago
 Adapted from Pawson and Tilley (1997) and Ratze et al. (2007) by Rosie Sadsad for a forthcoming  book chapter . Contextual factors, mechanisms and outcomes are conceptualised as holons. Their state may change over time (t) and across levels of organisation (l). Holons are components and form part o
Adapted from Pawson and Tilley (1997) and Ratze et al. (2007) by Rosie Sadsad for a forthcoming book chapter. Contextual factors, mechanisms and outcomes are conceptualised as holons. Their state may change over time (t) and across levels of organisation (l). Holons are components and form part of a compound holon. Holons are connected by weak or strong links.
​See also Realist Evaluation IM-1713 and Holon wikipedia and Multiscale modelling process IM-10070
4 months ago
WIP Understanding pathways to observed effects complex causation Pathways Moving to Opportunity NYC example from Nate Osgood's big data lecture  youtube video  Feb 2017 Sydney.
WIP Understanding pathways to observed effects complex causation Pathways Moving to Opportunity NYC example from Nate Osgood's big data lecture youtube video Feb 2017 Sydney.
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.  We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale websi
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

A decent match to the data is made with
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate Factor = 0.0203
Moose Death Rate Factor = 1.08
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is MDRF*Sqrt(M*W)
Wolf birth flow is WBRF*Sqrt(M*W)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also  Complex Decision Technologies IM  Interventions and leverage points added in  IM-1400  (complex!) 
A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM
Interventions and leverage points added in IM-1400 (complex!)