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Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.

SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Indonesia (Revised)

Firly Feisal

3

The System Dynamics Model presents the the COVID-19 status in Puerto Princesa City

самостоятельная

Ксения

Турциядағы COVID-19 Жүйелік динамика

JET I Nurzhigitkyzy Zhannur

3 4 months ago

COVID-19 в США

Sayazhan Kabdolla

Modelo Epidemiológico para os Casos de Covid-19

Insigh Authors:

Luis Felipe (UFSM)

Carlos Heitor (UFSM)

Paulo Vilella (UFJF)

Modelo UFSM - COVID-19

Luis Felipe Dias Lopes

My Insight

Каракат Алдажарова

Introduction:

This model aims to show that how the Tasmania government's COVID-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policies can damage the economy.

Assumption:

Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actual situation.

The government will implement stricter travel bans and social distant policies as there are more cases.

Government policies reduce infection and limit economic growth at the same time.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.

Interesting insights:

A higher testing rate will make the infection increase and the infection rate will slightly increase as well.

Government policies are effective to lower the infection, however, they will damage the local economy. While the higher number of COVID-19 cases also influences economic activities.

Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie_Guoyu Shen

Guoyu Shen

This model estimates the deaths due to COVID19 in Bangalore City.

Assumptions:

City has a population = 8 Million

Initial infected population = 10

Probability of infection = 8%

Contact rate in population = 6

Average duration of recovery = 10 days

Death rate = 1%

Quarantine rate = 80%

Delay in quarantine = 5 days

COVID-19_SIR_MODEL_No_Quarantine

Abhijith N

Systemigram - COVID-19

Student

5 months ago

Sike Liu's model on COVID-19 & Burnie Economy

This model contains three parts, the first part stimulates the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in Burnie; the second part describes possible government policies on pandemic control; and the third part examines the possible negative impact on economy growth from those policies.

Assumptions:

1. The state boarder has already been closed and all new arrivals in Burnie need to enter a fixed period of quarantine. And the quarantine rate measures the strength of the government policy on quarantine (such as length and method).

2. Patient zero refers to the initial number of undetected virus carriers in the community.

3. Government policies such as social distancing, compulsory mask and lock down could effectively reduce community’s exposure to the virus.

4. Social distancing and compulsory mask will be triggered when COVID-19 cases reach and beyond 10 and lock down will be triggered when cases reach and beyond 1000.

4. High vaccine rate, on the other hand, could effectively reduce the exposed people’s chance of getting infected.

5. Only when vaccine rate reaches 0.6 and beyond, then the spread of COVID-19 will be significantly slowed.

6. Vaccine can’t 100% prevent the infection of the virus.

7.The infected people will need to be tested so that they could be counted as COVID-19 cases and the test rate decides the percentage of infected people being tested.

8. After people recover, there are chances of them losing immunity and the immunity lost rate measures that.

9. The COVID-19 cases could also be detected at quarantine facilities, and the quarantine process will effectively reduce the Infection and exposure rate.

10. Social distancing and compulsory mask wearing are considered as light restrictions in this model and will have less impact on both supply and demand side, and lockdown is considered as heavy restriction which will have strong negative impact on economy growth in this model.

11. In this model, light restrictions will have more negative impacts on the demand side compared to the supply side.

12. In this model, both supply side and demand side will power the economy growth.

Interest hints:

The vaccine could significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19 and effectively reduce the number of COVID-19 cases.

The number of the COVID-19 cases will eventually be stabilized when the number of susceptible is running out in a community (reached community immunity).

Quarantine could slightly reduce the cases numbers, but the most effective way is to reduce the number of new arrivals.

BMA708_Assignment 3_Sike Liu_567871_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy

Sike Liu

COVID-19 pandemic

Taylor Gendel

The SEIRS(D) model for the purpose of experimenting with the phenomena of viral spread. I use it for COVID-19 simulation.

SEIR - COVID-19 (v.1)

Remigiusz Kinas

67

АҚШтағы COVID-19 Агенттік модель

MERS Aizhan

5 4 months ago

The System Dynamics Model presents the the COVID-19 status in Puerto Princesa City

Сомшв

Aruzhan

Covid-19 in Spain

Дамира Жанабай

covid 19 China

Amir Utemisov

49

Using the reading assignment from El-Taliawi and Hartley on using a SSM for COVID-19 follow the steps for SSM to include:

1) Describe the Problem (unstructured).

2) Develop a Root Definition for the COVID-19 problem space by identifying the three elements: what, how, why. A System to do X, by (means of) Y, in order to achieve Z.

X - What the system does

Y - How it does it

Z - Why is it being done

(see slide 33 in the Systems Thinking Workshop reading)

3) Identify the Perspectives (CATWOE)

4) Develop a basic Systemigram / Rich Picture to tell the story.

Submit your assignment as a Word document or PDF that addresses #1-4. You can use InsightMaker to create your systemigram or use the Systemitool which you can access at SERC hereLinks to an external site..

If you use InsightMaker, try presenting your results as a Story using the Storytelling capabilityLinks to an external site..

You will have TWO WEEKS to complete this assignment (due on March 7th).

Systemigram Model Building Exercise Luis Vega

Luis Vega

Covid-19 model

Covid-19

sakon supakul

Systemigram Model COVID-19

Devyn Dodge

5

Данная модель отражает распространение COVID-19 в России на основе статистики за 2020 год. Модель построена в среде Insight Maker по типу SEIRD (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Dead), с упрощённой динамикой.

Основные параметры:

-Исходное население (масштабировано): 1000 человек

-Заражённые в начале: 2.12% → 21 человек

-Выздоровевшие (Recovery period): через 14 дней

-Смертность: 1.71% от заболевших

-Потеря иммунитета: не учитывается (0%)

-Exogenous (внешнее заражение): 2.12%

-Transmit: 0.3 (зависит от количества заражённых и восприимчивых)

Clone of covid-19 in russia

Аяна Нукеева

9 months ago

Overview:

The COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania shows the process of COVID-19 outbreak, the impacts of government policy on both the COVID-19 outbreak and the GDP growth in Burnie.

Assumptions:

We set some variables at fix rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death rate, infection rate and case impact rate, as they usually depend on the individual health conditions and social activities.

It should be noticed that we set the rate of recovery, which is 0.7, is higher than that of immunity loss rate, which is 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be reduced over time.

Adjustments: (please compare the numbers at week 52)

Step 1: Set all the variables at minimum values and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 135; Recovered – 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.

Step 2: Increase the variables of Health Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the same as step 1, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 166 (up); Recovered – 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).

So, the increase of health policy, quarantine and travel restriction will help increase recovery, decrease confirmed cases, decrease death, but also decrease GDP.

Step 3: Increase the variables of Testing Rate to 0.4, others keep the same as step 2, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 152 (down); Recovered – 243 (down); Cases – 1022 (up); Death – 17,625 (down); GDP – 824 (same).

So, the increase of testing rate will help to increase the confirmed cases.

Step 4: Change GDP Growth Rate to 0.14, Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 152 (same); Recovered – 243 (same); Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); GDP – 6,632 (up).

So, the increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will helps to improve the GDP in Burnie.

COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania - Lin Ling 523592

Lin Ling

3

The model represents the interaction between influenza and SARS-CoV-2. The data used is for Catalonia region.

Influenza and SARS-CoV-2 interaction v1

Pau Fonseca

9

okonchatelny

Сымбат Мурат

3

Агентное моделирование COVID-19 в Китае

Алихан Болатаев

8 months ago