Find Insights | Insight Maker

Системная динамика COVID-19 в Казахстане в 2020 году

Эрметов Диёрбек Нодирбекович

8 months ago

COVID-19 SEIR Model (Indonesia values)

Hervi Nur Rahmandien

13

corona virus model for spread.

correlated to US and Italy

covid-19

Z

Overview:

Overall, this analysis showed a COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, the government policies to curtail that, and some of the impacts it is having on the Burnie economy.

Variables

The simulation made use of the variables such as; Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): Death rate. (4): Immunity loss rate etc.

Assumptions:

From the model, it is apparent that government health policies directly affect the economic output of Burnie. A better health policy has proven to have a better economic condition for Burnie and verse versa.

In the COVID-19 model, some variables are set at fixed rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death rate, infection rate, and case impact rate, as this is normally influenced by the individual health conditions and social activities.

Moving forward, we decided to set the recovery rate to 0.7, which is a rate above the immunity loss rate of 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be diminished over time.

Step 1: Try to set all value variables at their lowest point and then stimulate.

Outcome: the number of those Infected are– 135; Recovered – 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.

Step 2: Try to increase the variables of Health Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the same as step 1, and simulate

Outcome: The number of those Infected – 166 (up); Recovered – 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).

With this analysis, it is obvious that the increase of health policy, quarantine, and travel restriction will assist in increase recovery rate, a decrease in confirmed cases, a reduction in death cases or fatality rate, but a decrease in Burnie GDP.

Step 3: Enlarge the Testing Rate to 0.4, variable, others, maintain the same as step 2, and simulate

Outcome: It can be seen that the number of Infected is down to – 152; those recovered down to – 243; overall cases up to – 1022; those that died down to–17,625; while the GDP remains – 824.

In this step, it is apparent that the increase of testing rate will assist to increase the confirmed cases.

Step 4: Try to change the GDP Growth Rate to 0.14, then Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and then simulate the model

Outcome: what happens is that the Infected number – 152 remains the same; Recovered rate– 243 the same; Number of Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); but the GDP goes up to– 6,632.

This final step made it obvious that the increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will help to improve the overall GDP performance of Burnie's economy.

The Recent COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania - Buchi Okafor 546792

Buchi Okafor

The model is built to demonstrates how Burnie Tasmania can deal with a new COVID-19 outbreaks, taking government policies and economic effects into account.

The susceptible people are the local Burnie residents. If residents were infected, they would either recovered or dead. However, even they do recover, there is a chance that they will get infected again if immunity loss occurs.

From the simulation result we can see that with the implementation of local government policies including travel ban and social distancing, the number of infected people will decrease. The number of recovered people will increase in the first 5 weeks but then experience a decrease.

In addition, with the implementation of local government policy, the economic environment in Burnie will be relatively stable when the number of COVID-19 cases is stable.

How Burnie, Tasmania can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19

Jie Sun

3

An S-I-R Model of COVID-19 in Cameroon. This model has been optimized using observed data.

Week 7 S-I-R Model COVID Cameroon

Kyla Langotsky

COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model

Introduction:

This model simulates the COVID-19 outbreak situation in Burnie and how the government responses impact local economy. The COVID-19 pandemic spread is influenced by several factors including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate and government's intervention policies.Government's policies reduce the infection spread and also impact economic activities in Burnie, especially its tourism and local businesses.

Assumptions:

- This model was built based on different rates, including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, testing rate and economic growth rate. There can be difference between

this model and reality.

- This model considers tourism and local business are the main industries influencing local economy in Burnie.

- Government's intervention policies will positive influence on local COVID-19 spread but also negative impact on local economic activity.

- When there are more than 10 COVID-19 cases confirmed, the government policies will be triggered, which will brings effects both restricting the virus spread and reducing local economic growth.

- Greater COVID-19 cases will negatively influence local economic activities.

Interesting Insights:

Government's vaccination policy will make a important difference on restricting the infection spread. When vaccination rate increase, the number of deaths, infected people and susceptible people all decrease. This may show the importance of the role of government's vaccination policy.

When confirmed cases is more than 10, government's intervention policies are effective on reducing the infections, meanwhile local economic activities will be reduced.

BMA708-Tian Liang-586868-Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

Tian Liang

Explanation of the Model

The sample model demonstrate the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania appearing how the government reacts by executing important health approaches and the impacts on the economy of the region

Assumptions

The economic growth rate is subordinate on the extent of the populace who can be exposed. The number of COVID-19 cases adversely impacts the economy. The government arrangement is activated when the COVID-19 cases are 10 or above

Interesting Insights

1. There is a positive relationship between exposure to COVID- 19 and economic growth rate. Since the more individuals go out, the more trade activity takes place and that ultimately results economic growth

2. Expanding the testing rate results

- Higher cases being recognized

- Strict government intervention

- Less deaths

BMA708_Assignment3_Md Shihabul Islam_548056

Md Shihabul Islam

spread model of COVID-19

HIKARU ASANO

This Agent-based Model was an idea of Christopher DICarlo "Disease Transmission with Agent Based Model' aims to present the COVID cases in Puerto Princesa City as of June 3, 2021

Insight author: Pia Mae M. Palay

ABM Model of COVID-19 in Puerto Princesa City

Pia Mae Palay

11

Agent-Based Model Covid-19

Pearl Angeli Padul

48

Spring 2023

COVID-19 Crisis by Rashid

Md Mamunur Rashid

Evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil:

A System Dynamics Approach

Villela, Paulo (2020)
villela.paulo@gmail.com

This model is based on Crokidakis, Nuno. (2020). Data analysis and modeling of the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. For more details see full paper here.

Evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil: A System Dynamics Approach

Paulo Villela

3 7 months ago

COVID-19 outbreak model brief description

The model stimulated the COVID-19 outbreak at Burnie in Tasmania. The pandemic spread was driven by infection rate, death rate, recovery rate, and government policy.

The government policy reduces the infection in some way, but it also decreases the physical industry. Online industry plays a vital role during the pandemic and brings more opportunities to the world economy.

The vaccination directly reduces the infection rate. The national border will open as long as residents have been fully vaccinated.

Assumption:

The model was created based on different rates, including infection rate, death rate, testing rate and recovered rate. There will be difference between the real cases and the model.

The model only list five elements of government policies embracing vaccination rate, national border and state border restrictions, public health orders, and business restrictions. Public health order includes social distance and residents should wear masks in high spread regions.

This model only consider two industries which are physical industry, like manufacturer, retailers, or hospitality industries, and online industry. During the pandemic, employees star to work from home and students can have online class. Therefore, the model consider the COVID-19 has positive impact on online industry.

Interesting insights:

The susceptible will decrease dramatically in first two weeks due to high infection rate and low recovery rate and government policy. After that, the number of susceptible will have a slight decline.

The death toll and recovery rate was increased significantly in the first two weeks due to insufficient healthy response. And the trend will become mild as government policy works.

BMA708_DafeiMeng_567691_Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

Dafei Meng

BMA708_Assignment 3_Xiaoya Zuo

Xiaoya Zuo

3

Tugas Permo

Tugas Permo_Corona

Yopy Anjas

This model estimates the deaths due to COVID19 in Bangalore City.

Assumptions:

City has a population = 80 Million

Initial infected population = 10

Probability of infection = 8%

Contact rate in population = 6

Average duration of recovery = 10 days

Death rate = 1%

Quarantine rate = 80%

Delay in quarantine = 5 days

COVID-19_SIR_MODEL

Abhijith N

Сovid 19 South Korea

Dauren07

6

COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model

Introduction

This model simulates how COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government responses influence the economic community. Government responses are based on the reported COVID-19 cases amount, whcih is considered to be based on testing rate times number of people who are infected minus those recovered from COVID-19 and dead.

Government interventions include the implement of healthy policy, border surveillance, quarantine and travel restriction. After outbreak, economic activities are positively affected by the ecommerce channel development and normal economic grwoth, while the unemployement rate unfortunately increases as well.

Assumption

Enforcing government policies reduce both infection and economica growth.
When there are 10 or greater COVID-19 cases reported, the governmwnt policies are triggered.
Greater COVID-19 cases have negatively influenced the economic activities.
Government policies restict people's activities socially and economically, leading to negative effects on economy.
Opportunities for jobs are cut down too, making umemployment rate increased.
During the outbreak period, ecommerce has increased accordingly because people are restricted from going out.

Interesting insights

An increase in vaccination rate will make difference on reduing the infection. People who get vaccinated are seen to have higher immunity index to fight with COVID-19. Further research is needed.

Testing rate is considered as critical issue to reflect the necessity of government intervention. Higher testing rate seems to boost immediate intervention. Reinforced policies can then reduce the spread of coronvirus but absoluately have negative impacts on economy too.

Mengling Xue 561743 BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data

Mengling Xue

Santa Maria Covid-19

Paulo Villela

13

COVID-19 modelling with SEIR(D) Model method to predict transmission of COVID-19.

SEIR(D) Model COVID-19

pemsim kelompok 3

Өзіндік жұмыс (3-бөлімге)

Өзіндік жұмыс Агент

anel bahtybek

24 last month

Covid-19

Adiba Muminova

Description:

This is a system dynamics model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie which shows the process of infections and how government responses, impact on the local economy.

First part is outbreak model, we can know that when people is infected, there are two situations. One is that he recovers from treatment, but even if he recovered, the immunity loss rate increase, makes him to become infected again. The other situation is death. In this outbreak, the government's health policies (ban on non-essential trips, closure of non-essential retailers, limits on public gatherings and quarantine ) help to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 new cases. Moreover, government legislation is dependent on number of COVID-19 cases and testing rates.

Second part: the model of Govt legislation and economic impact. Gov policy can help to reduce infection rate and local economy at same way. The increase of number of COVID-19 cases has a negative impact on local Tourism industry and economic growth rate. On the other hand, Govt legislation also can be change when reported COVID-19 case are less or equal to 10.

Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie(Yafei Shi 489576)

Yafei Shi