First pass at model depicting importance of Net Capital Accumulation on economic growth of firm - from firm's perspective
The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed
Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)
The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks
See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)
The complex model reflects the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. The model explains how the COVID-19 outbreak will influence the government policies and economic impacts. The infected population will be based on how many susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals in Burnie. It influences the probability of infected population meeting with susceptible individuals.
The fatality rate will be influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical conditions. Even though individuals can recover from COVID-19 disease, some of them will have immunity loss and become part of the susceptible individuals, or they will be diagnosed with long term illnesses (mental and physical). Thus, these variables influence the number of confirmed cases in Burnie and the implementation of government policies.
The government policies depend on the confirmed COVID-19 cases. The government policies include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing rate. These variables have negative impacts on the infection of COVID-19 disease. However, these policies have some negative effects on commercial industry and positive effects on e-commerce and medical industry. These businesses growth rate can influence the economic growth of Burnie with the economic
Most of the variables are adjustable with the slider provided below. They can be adjusted from 0 to 1, which illustrates the percentages associated with the specific variables. They can also be adjusted to three decimal points, i.e., from 0.1 to 0.001.
Assumptions
- The maximum
population of Burnie is 20000.
- The maximum
number of infected individuals is 100.
- Government
policies are triggered when the COVID-19 cases reach 10 or above.
- The government
policies include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing
rates only. Other policies are not being considered under this model.
- The vaccination
policy implemented by the government is compulsory.
- The testing
rate is set by the government. The slider should not be changed unless the testing
rate is adjusted by the government.
- The
fatality rate is influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical
conditions only. Other factors are not being considered under this model.
- People who
recovered from COVID-19 disease will definitely suffer form immunity loss or any
other long term illnesses.
- Long term
illnesses include mental illnesses and physical illnesses only. Other illnesses
are not being considered under this model.
- Economic activities
are provided with an assumption value of 1000.
- The higher
the number of COVID-19 cases, the more negative impact they have on the economy
of Burnie.
Interesting Insights
A higher recovery rate can decrease the number of COVID-19 cases as well as the probability of infected population meeting with susceptible persons, but it takes longer for the economy to recover compared to a lower recovery rate. A higher recovery rate can generate a larger number of people diagnosed with long term illnesses.
Testing rate triggers multiple variables, such as government policies, positive cases, susceptible and infected individuals. A lower testing rate can decrease the COVID-19 confirmed cases, but it can increase the number of susceptible people. And a higher testing rate can trigger the implementation of government policies, thus decreasing the infection rate. As the testing rate has a strong correlation with the government policies, it can also influence the economy of Burnie.
Assumptions are 1.) Indeterminate variety tomato 2.) One initial purchase of 55 Bonnie indeterminate heirloom varieties required, subsequent plantings are from seed-saving and price included initial cost3.) Chard seeds bought new per season 4.) Entire area of greenhouse devoted to chard or tomato at one time 5.) No maintenance costs required- greenhouse structure built to withstand 5 years
Tomato
10.6kg/1.85m2= 5.7kg/m2/season
Total potential tomato production/season= 5.7kg/m2*11m2(total area greenhouse) = 63.02 kg tomatoes/season
Average Price of Tomatoes (USDA report) Southwest U.S.1 = 2.29$/kg
Potential Harvest Income= 2.29$/kg* 63.02 kg tomatoes/season= $144.3/season
Swiss Chard
8.7kg/1.85m2= 4.7 kg/m2/season
Total potential swiss chard production/season= 4.7 kg/m2*11m2(total area greenhouse)= 51.7 kg chard/season
Average Price Swiss Chard (FreshDirect)= $6.6/kg
Potential Harvest Revenue =$6.6/kg*51.7 kg chard/season= $341.22/season
ROI (assuming t=5 years)
Bonnie Tomato Plants= 9 plants/1.85 meters≈ 5 plants/m2*11m2=55 plants/greenhouse
Price Per Bonnie Tomato Plant≈ 4dollars/plant (averaged due to the different varieties in use)
$4/plant*55 plants= $220
Chard plants= 8 plants/1.85 meters≈ 4 plants/m2*11m2= 44 plants/greenhouse
1 seed packet/1.85 meters= 6 packets/11m2/year= $4.14*6=$24.84/year
Total Variable Cost = 24.84/year
Total Investment Cost= Initial fixed costs (construction and tomato purchase) + 5 year variable= $1800 +($220)+($22.84*5)= 2,134.2
Total annual revenue= $341.22 chard+ ($144.3*2) tomato= $629.82
Total revenue for 5 Years= $629.82*5=3,149.1
ROI Greenhouse= ($3,149.1-$2,134.2)/$2,134.2= 48% return on investment
Annualized ROI (5 years)
=[(1+.48)⅕-1]*100%= 8.1% annual ROI
https://www.freshdirect.com/pdp.jsp?productId=veg_chrd_rnbw_or&catId=grns
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/fvwretail.pdf
https://www.magnifymoney.com/blog/news/average-american-savings/
THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
No economy can function well without adequate funding and in the absence of finance will eventually fall into recession. Funds (financial assets in the model) are primarily injected through investments. This is certainly true for investments and payments undertaken by the government but also for private investments via bank loans. Net exports (i.e.trade surpluses) also represent an injecton of financial assets into the economy. By contrast financial assets are taken out of the economy through taxation, the repayment of bank loans and the running of a negative trade balance. Also, if the population in aggregate decides to save more this has the effect as if money were taken out of the economy. I have deliberately avoided specifying where the funds for treasury payments and public investments come from, as this is controversial. Modern Monetary Theory, for instance, says that these funds are not provided through tax revenue. Austerity can be seen as a process that deliberately diminishes or takes out financial assets from the economy through taxation, restrictions on bank loans or cutbacks in payments and public spending by the government. It is probably useful to look at insights 2740 and 2741 before examining this CLD because they provide the context and purpose for net public spending and investment.
