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Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Q1 Final Project w/ socio-economic

Based on G.P. Cimellaro et al. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 3639–3649 paper

Facilities Disaster Resilience

Geoff McDonnell

Overview of Part G Ch 27 to 30 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview

History of Macroeconomic Thought

Geoff McDonnell

6

The World Socio-Economics model is computer model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the earth and human systems based on the World3 model by the work of Club of Rome, The Limits to Growth[1].

The World3 model builds by system dynamics theory that is has an approach to understanding the nonlinear behaviour of complex systems over time using stocks, flows, feedback loops, table functions and time delays.

The Limits to Growth concludes that, without substantial changes in resource consumption, "the most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity".

Since the World3 model was originally created, it has had minor tweaks to get to the World3-91 model used in the book Beyond the Limits[2], later improved to get the World3-03 model used in the book Limits to Growth: the 30 year update[3].

References;

[1] Meadows, Donella H., Meadows, Dennis L., Randers, Jørgen., Behrens III, William W (1972). The Limits to Growth.

[2] Meadows, Donella H., Dennis L. Meadows, Randers, Jørgen., (1992). Beyond the limits: global collapse or a sustainable future.

[3] Meadows, Dennis., Randers, Jørgen., (2004). The limits to growth: the 30-year update.

World Socio-Economics model 2000-2100

滑川英樹

47 9 months ago

A system dynamics model to CBA of smart grid project

STATIC_Model_System dynamics approach to Isernia CBA Case

Jose Angel L V

11 11 months ago

• This model examines how sustainable consumerism is from social, economic, and environmental aspects. The question in focus is "How will our second-hand clothing donations affect communities in developing countries, specifically Kenya?"

5 Stock Variables:

• U.S. Consumers

• Multinational Corporations

• Overseas Factories

• Kenya

Highlight Findings:

To sum up, there are 4 major problems associated to donations:

• 1. Source of problem is the consumer: Cheap deals attract hundreds of millions in revenue for fast fashion, and contribute to 100,000 tonnes of clothing to Kenya annually.

• 2. Rapid consumerism leads to over-utilization of slowly-renewable resources, such as water.

• 3. Nearly 96% of textiles jobs are eradicated by the massive inflow of clothing donations to Kenya.

• 4. The offshoring of textiles jobs enrages U.S. blue-collar workers, leading to the rise of protectionism.

The environmental, social, and economic sustainability aspects of textiles donations

Christina Cheung

Model description:

This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania. It also tell us the impact of economic policies on outbreak models and economic growth.

Variables:

The simulation takes into account the following variables and its adjusting range:

On the left of the model, the variables are: infection rate( from 0 to 0.25), recovery rate( from 0 to 1), death rate( from 0 to 1), immunity loss rate( from 0 to 1), test rate ( from 0 to 1), which are related to Covid-19.

In the middle of the model, the variables are: social distancing( from 0 to 0.018), lock down( from 0 to 0.015), quarantine( from 0 to 0.015), vaccination promotion( from 0 to 0.019), border restriction( from 0 to 0.03), which are related to governmental policies.

On the right of the model, the variables are: economic growth rate( from 0 to 0.3), which are related to economic growth.

Assumptions:

(1) The model is influenced by various variables and can produce different results. The following values based on the estimation, which differ from actual values in reality.

(2) Here are just five government policies that have had an impact on infection rates in epidemic models. On the other hand, these policies will also have an impact on economic growth, which may be positive or negative.

(3) Governmental policy will only be applied when reported cases are 10 or more.

(4) This model lists two typical economic activities, namely e-commerce and physical stores. Government policies affect these two types of economic activity separately. They together with economic growth rate have an impact on economic growth.

Enlightening insights:

(1) In the first two weeks, the number of susceptible people will be significantly reduced due to the high infection rate, and low recovery rate as well as government policies. The number of susceptible people fall slightly two weeks later. Almost all declines have a fluctuating downward trend.

(2) Government policies have clearly controlled the number of deaths, suspected cases and COVID-19 cases.

(3) The government's restrictive policies had a negative impact on economic growth, but e-commerce economy, physical stores and economic growth rate all played a positive role in economic growth, which enabled the economy to stay in a relatively stable state during the epidemic.

Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

LILI LIU

Summary WIP of Thomas Palley's 2012 Book

From Financial Crisis to Stagnation

Geoff McDonnell

This Insight is used for simulating growth of a company with specified parameters.

CompanyGrowth

Stanislav Kubis

Enunciado do ploblema do projeto:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-QIzc4nqMvKdWJLdEZXSzJMTzA/edit?usp=sharing

Perquentas e problemas

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-e5AFCR_wXCamHt_JJt_j045YCKeQ-woegZT7y3Fe80/edit

simulador economico

https://projetobiomassa.slack.com/messages/C02FPF8GF/files/F59249AKT/

NOME E DESCRIÇÃO

LINK

TAMANHO

Prova1.Investimento Fixo e Tomada de Decisões Rápidas

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184101

33 KB

Prova.2.Investimento método Lang

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184144

32 KB

Prova 3 Investimento Fixo método Chilton

ihttps://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184169

33 KB

Prova4:Custo Fixo

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184189

32 KB

Prova 5:Custo de mao de obra

customaohtm custo de mao de obra

33 KB

Prova 6 Custo de mat,comb e enegia

CustoMat prima , energia

34 KB

Prova 7 Custo total

custo de operacional de producao

33 KB

Prova 8 Ponto deEquilibrio

ponto de eqilibrioibrio

32 KB

Prova 9:Analise de lucro e beneficios

Fluxo de caixa

33 KB

Simulacao e otimizacao economica Miniemporesa

Pagandai V Pannir Selvam

40

Summary of Ch1 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for overview

Macroeconomics Introduction

Geoff McDonnell

56

BACKGROUND:

The following simulation model demonstrates the relationship between supply, demand and pricing within the real estate and housing world. I have based the model on a small city with a population of 100,000 residents as of 2015.

AXIS:

X-Axis

The X-Axis shows the time. It begins in 2015 in the month of October and continues for 36 consecutive years.

Y-Axis

There are 2 Y-Axis on this model. The left hand side relates to the price, demand, and supply, while the right hand side solely lists the population.

As you could see, this town has a population of 100,000 residents to-date. The bottom of the model shows a population loop that produces an exponential growth rate of 2.5%. This dynamic and growing city populates approximately 240,000 residents after 36 years.

MODEL

The model consists of 2 folders named: Buyers/Consumers & Suppliers/Producers. This first folder represents the 'Demand'. It includes a buyers growth rate, buyers interest increase and decrease, a price demand and the demand price. The formulas form an exponential rise in demand due to the rapid and continuous increase in population in this new city. As population increases, so does the demand from buyers.

The second folder conveys the supply of houses. It includes a sophisticated loop of real estate. Residents who own houses in the market decide to sell the home. This becomes the Houses for sale, also known as the 'supply'. Those houses are sold and the sold houses re-enter the market and the loop continues.

The supply has an inverse relationship with the price. When prices drop, supplies drop because the demand goes up. And when the price goes up, so does the supply. This will represent the growth of new houses in the market.

PRICE

Note: The price is based on monthly rent rates.

The price is dependant on many variables. Most importantly, the supply and demand. It also includes factors such as expectations & the economic value of the house. I have included a stable, 'good' economic value for all homes as this fictional town is in a stable and growing area.

Price fluctuates throughout the entire simulation, however it also goes up in price. Over the years houses continue to rise in price while they regularly fluctuate. For example, in 2018 (3 years later), the max price for a home was: $4254.7 and min price was: $852.98. On the other hand, in October 2051 (36 years later), the max price was: $14906 and the min price was: $7661. (This is based on the following data: Houses for Sale: 500, Houses that have sold: 100, Houses in the Market: 730).

SLIDERS

There are 3 sliders on the bottom that could be altered. The simulation would react accordingly. The 3 sliders include changeable data on:

- Houses for Sale.

- Houses that have Sold.

- Houses in the Market.

Real Estate Simulation Assignment - Mitchell Bassil 43290264

Mitchell Bassil

8

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Climate, Weather, Ecology, Economics, Population, Welfare, Energy, Policy, CO2, Carbon Cycle, GHG (green house gasses, combined effects)

As general population is composed of 85% with an education level of a 12 grader or less (a 17 year old), a simple block of components concerning the health of the planet needs to be broken down into simple blocks.

Perhaps this picture will show the basics on which to vote for a sustained healthy future

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram of Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

3

Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.

@LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube

Why Nations Fail

Gene Bellinger

18

Causal loop diagram on an extension of the US budget because of corona in connection to the Chinese budget for the sake of a discussion (in Dutch)

Financiering VS lening

Henny van Dongen

There are many reasons why reality does not alter doctrines. Some of the factors and their dynamics are shown in the CLD.

However, an unchanging doctrine may prompt actions that influence and change reality. Do ill-adapted doctrinal reactions not increase the complexity in the world, potentially making everything worse? Some Neoliberal economic remedies come to mind.

THE INALTERABILITY OF DOCTRINES TENDS TO INCREASE COMPLEXITY

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Brainstorming - Scoping constraints of tradeoff microanalysis

Laura Anne Geronimo

Introduction:

This model aims to show that how the Tasmania government's COVID-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policies can damage the economy.

Assumption:

Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actual situation.

The government will implement stricter travel bans and social distant policies as there are more cases.

Government policies reduce infection and limit economic growth at the same time.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.

Interesting insights:

A higher testing rate will make the infection increase and the infection rate will slightly increase as well.

Government policies are effective to lower the infection, however, they will damage the local economy. While the higher number of COVID-19 cases also influences economic activities.

Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie_Guoyu Shen

Guoyu Shen

This simple model describes wealth accumulation. The value in income is described by the following simple equation:

simple wealth accumulation model

Larry Lee

24

Economics model

Arkadiy Simonov

A system diagram for the Mojave Desert including example socio-economic factors for an assignment at OSU- RNG 341.

Mojave Desert System Diagram with SES

Abi Wells

This model is based on the article Dynamic modeling of Infectious Diseases, An application to Economic Evaluation of Influenza Vaccination Farmacoeconomics 2008, 26(1): 45-56 .

And EBOLA

Dynamic Modeling of Infectious Diseases

Guy Lakeman

4

This is a reconstruction of the SIMM model presented in Chapter 2 of Feedback Economics (Contemporary Systems Thinking)

@LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube

Simple Macroeconomic Model (SIMM) (SFD)

Gene Bellinger

9

A systems model of the relationships amongst economic situation, health situations and Covid-19 in Burnie, Tasmania.

Health situation

According to exposed and go out population decreases, the population of infected decreases after a stable high cases period.

Economic situation

When the infected population decreases, the population economic recovery increases over time, then become stable after a period of time.

BMA708 Assessment 3 Complex system

Jingyi Qiu