Find Insights | Insight Maker

Implementation of a DSGE Model solved in a Macroeconomics class by Harald Uhlig (link), using Rational Expectations, in this case, the Hansens Real Business Cycle Model.

It shows the capacity of implementing Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Analysis using System Dynamics.

Real Business Cycle Model (DSGE)

Fernando Fernandes Neto

Based on oid 2016 report to be compared with the Just Justice Framework WIP insight

Overcoming Indigenous Disadvantage

Geoff McDonnell

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions

Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.

Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights

Higher testing rates trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy, though, of higher detected cases is negative.

Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2

Steven D'Alessandro

39 4 months ago

A simple budget planning system. What additional complexities can you add?

ISD Savings Plan

Kevin Collins

126

Marine Tourism Task III - Great Blue Hole

Emma Malte Larsen

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Final Project 1 W/ Socio-Economic Factors

Geoffrey Alan Chapman

3

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

This Scenario has Affluence decreasing due to Anthropogenic climate change

Final Project 3 W/ Socio-Economic Factors - Temperature Degradation

Geoffrey Alan Chapman

First pass at model depicting importance of Net Capital Accumulation on economic growth of firm - from firm's perspective

Economic Growth Rev 0

Gary Midock

Case 1

April Rose Alpha

Introduction:

This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. It shows how the government policy tries to reduce the spread of COVID-19 whilst also impacting the local economy.

Assumptions:

This model has four variables that influence the number of COVID-19 cases: infection rate, immunity loss rate, recovery rate and death rate.

In order to reduce the pandemic spread, in this model, assume the government released six policies when Burnie COVID-19 cases are equal or over 10 cases. Policies are vaccination promotion, travel restriction to Burnie, quarantine, social distance, lockdown and testing rate.

Government policies would reduce the pandemic. However, it decreases economic growth at the same time. In this model, only list three variable that influence local economic activities.

Travel restrictions and quarantine will reduce Burnie tourism and decrease the local economy. On the other hand, quarantine, social distance, lockdown allow people to stay at home, increasing E-commerce business.

As a result, policies that cause fewer COVID-19 cases also cause more considerable negative damage to the economy.

Interesting insights:

One of the interesting findings is that the government policy would reduce the COVID-19 spread significantly if I adjust the total government policies are over 20% (vaccine promotion, travel restriction, quarantine, social distance, lockdown), 3560 people will die, then no more people get COVID-19.

However, if I change the total government policy to less than 5%, the whole Burnie people will die according to the model. Therefore, we need to follow the polices, which saves our lives.

BMA708 assignment3 - Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie

Zhiyuan Wang

WIP Elements from macroeconomics, neoliberalism and commercial determinants of health frameworks to provide a background to the effects of the universal basic income on health and wellbeing for the first 1000 days. UBI diagram modified from Johnson2021 article Expanded in Insight 2

Employment and Welfare Interventions Effect on the first 1000 days 1

Geoff McDonnell

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Ben Carson's economic policy based on the information at:

https://www.bencarson.com/issues/tax-reform/

https://www.bencarson.com/issues/balanced-budget-amendment/ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

DRAFT IPA of Ben Carson economic policy

Steve Wallis

Smithian growth model from Michael Joffe Fig. 3.7 p57 Ch3 Feedback Economics Book

Adam Smith's Growth through Division of labour

Geoff McDonnell

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Q2 Final Project w/ socio-economic

Claire Murley

COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model

Introduction

This model simulates how COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government responses influence the economic community. Government responses are based on the reported COVID-19 cases amount, whcih is considered to be based on testing rate times number of people who are infected minus those recovered from COVID-19 and dead.

Government interventions include the implement of healthy policy, border surveillance, quarantine and travel restriction. After outbreak, economic activities are positively affected by the ecommerce channel development and normal economic grwoth, while the unemployement rate unfortunately increases as well.

Assumption

Enforcing government policies reduce both infection and economica growth.
When there are 10 or greater COVID-19 cases reported, the governmwnt policies are triggered.
Greater COVID-19 cases have negatively influenced the economic activities.
Government policies restict people's activities socially and economically, leading to negative effects on economy.
Opportunities for jobs are cut down too, making umemployment rate increased.
During the outbreak period, ecommerce has increased accordingly because people are restricted from going out.

Interesting insights

An increase in vaccination rate will make difference on reduing the infection. People who get vaccinated are seen to have higher immunity index to fight with COVID-19. Further research is needed.

Testing rate is considered as critical issue to reflect the necessity of government intervention. Higher testing rate seems to boost immediate intervention. Reinforced policies can then reduce the spread of coronvirus but absoluately have negative impacts on economy too.

Mengling Xue 561743 BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data

Mengling Xue

This model demonstrate how the exisitng tested COVID cases effects economic recovery via goverment intervenes.

Assumption:Goverment intervenes positively contribute on transmission, patients recovery, and death elimination. When existing cases equal or lower than 10 cases, economic growth will be soaring with helps of influencial elements.

Interesting points: even though there are certain amount of unknow cases, enhancing social restriction and increasing test rate ould still reduce amount of cases

Complex Model to Simulate How COVID Outbreak Influence Economic Recovery in Burnie

Youjia Xiao

This Model was developed from the SEIR Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) and it predicts the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. This pandemic outbreak contributes to diverse rates including infection rate, death rates and recovery rate, government policies and its economic impacts.

Assumptions:

This model is driven by its determined rates, e.g., incubation rate, morality rate, test rate and immunity loss rate and its recovery rate.

Government policies are involved in fully vaccination rate, social distance, national border closure, travel, and business restriction which effect Burnie’s economy.

There are three economic entities dimensions in Burnie Island, we can tell that the pandemic has negative impact on Brick-and-Mortar enterprises and tourism business to some extent, whereas, e commercial business plays a crucial role to stimulate the regional economic activities during the COVID-19 period.

Interesting Insights:

The figure of susceptible changes significantly during the initial 3 weeks because of low recovery rate and high infection rate. On the other hand, the implementation and interventions of government policies is effective, because the number of patients who tested negative is increased and the majority of them release and go back home after medical follow-up.

Xueli Huang 501514, BMA708 Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

XUELI HUANG

not a mathematical model. just a general one

impact of globalization

Venkatesan S

Book Summary of The Great Transformation by Karl Polanyi see Wikipedia . See also more Karl Polanyi ideas IM-181325

The Great Transformation

Geoff McDonnell

8

Description for Each Simulation Tag:

CRISIS:

- Price increasing dramatically, surpasses average detached home price of 3 million in 3 years if left unaddressed

- Housing Demand by potential buyer population will increase due to unmet financial means (Interest rate and price too high). To secure housing, the outflow is linked to price that is affected by supply and demand.

- Total occupied homes will decrease as empty homes purchased by foreign investors for "house flipping" increase and doubles within 5 years.

DEMAND:

- Demand for housing in Vancouver will increase, but the amount of people motivated to buy with financial means "buyer population", will decrease in correlation.

SUPPLY:

- Prices do not follow traditional supply and demand concepts. Supply of houses on the market is increasing but, as shown, unable to sell because of unaffordability.

SYSTEMS MODEL LOGISTICS:

- Split into demand and supply with interlinked links

- Supply is a feedback system with sold houses branching off into empty housing or occupied housing

- All flows and stocks are linked with the intention that as market price changes, so will various system dynamics

- Used various functions to simulate a more diverse and accurate system

Sustainability: Economic (prices, housing market), Social (motivation to buy and sell)

Crisis Model - Vancouver Housing Crisis

Ray C

The Logistic Map is a polynomial mapping (equivalently, recurrence relation) of degree 2, often cited as an archetypal example of how complex, chaotic behaviour can arise from very simple non-linear dynamical equations. The map was popularized in a seminal 1976 paper by the biologist Robert May, in part as a discrete-time demographic model analogous to the logistic equation first created by Pierre François Verhulst.

Mathematically, the logistic map is written

where:

is a number between zero and one, and represents the ratio of existing population to the maximum possible population at year n, and hence x0 represents the initial ratio of population to max. population (at year 0)r is a positive number, and represents a combined rate for reproduction and starvation.
For approximate Continuous Behavior set 'R Base' to a small number like 0.125To generate a bifurcation diagram, set 'r base' to 2 and 'r ramp' to 1
To demonstrate sensitivity to initial conditions, try two runs with 'r base' set to 3 and 'Initial X' of 0.5 and 0.501, then look at first ~20 time steps

The Logistic Map