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A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions

The government has reduced both the epidemic and economic development by controlling immigration.

Yuhao c, BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data.

Yuhao Chen

INTRODUCTION

This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID 19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure) affect the local economy. This model has 13 positive loops and seven negative loops. Government response is dependent on the number of reported COVID-19 cases which in turn thought to be dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered from COVID 19 and dead. Economic activity is dependent on the economic growth rate, increased in online shopping, increased in unemployment, number of people who do not obey the rules, COVID 19 cases and health policies.

ASSUMPTIONS

· Both infection and economic growth is reduced by enforcing government policies

· However, the negative effect of government policies is reduced by the number of people who do not obey government health policies

· Govt policies are enforced when the reported COVID-19 case are 10 or greater.

· Number of COVID cases reported is dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered and dead.

· The higher number of COVID-19 cases have a negative effect on local economy. This phenomena is known as negative signalling.

· Government policies have a negative effect on economic activity because health policies limit both social and economic activities which directly or indirectly affect the economy in Burnie .

· This negative effect is somewhat reduced by the increase in online shopping and the number of people who do not obey heath rules.

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

The test ratings seem to play a vital role in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. Higher Rates of COVID testings decrease the number of COVID 19 deaths and number of infected. This is because higher rates of testing accelerate the government involvement (as the government intervention is triggered earlier, 10 COVID cases mark is reached earlier). Delaying the government intervention by reducing the COVID testing rates increases the death rates and number of infected.

Increased testing rates allow the figures (deaths, susceptible, infected) to reach a plateau quickly.

BMA708- Shakila Bethmage- 548351 - COVID 19 Outbreak in Burnie

Shakila Piyumi Perera Bethmage

Tourism Flow

Robert Luetkemeier

Farmers use intensive pesticides to harvest cotton, which is harmful to not only the health of the farmers using them, but also our environment as it pollutes rivers and groundwater that negatively interfere with the ecosystem. Even though these farmers know of the health and environmental risks, they still use harmful pesticides to produce cotton, but why is this so. This stock and flow map should explain what impacts farmers to use pesticides to grow cotton despite the risks and explain the cause and effect relationship their use has on the cotton industry and the environment.

According to Clevo Wilson and Clem Tisdell article, "Why farmer continue to use pesticides despite environmental, health and sustainable costs,"

Pesticide use by farmers:

"used to reduce yield losses to pests"
"avoid economic losses to ensure economical survival"
"increase supply market and reduce market prices"
"ignorance of sustainable use"
"integral part of commercially grow high yielding varieties so without use, high yields may not be sustained"
"damage to agriculture land from the use occurs over long period of time so costs may not look serious short term, but reduces economic welfare in long term"
"environmental damage: pollutes rivers and groundwater, destroys beneficial predators and interferes with ecosystem overall"
"health risks underestimated"
"chemical companies selling it have incentive to push their use by advertising and promotion" (1,9).

Farmer Pesticide Use On Cotton

Neilah

Adapted from Hartmut Bossel's "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."

Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for the elderly, pensions dynamics, etc.

Z602 Population with four age groups

Joe Van Steen

30

My Insight_ENVS8019 report 5 exercise

Tilia

WIP Summary of Davies 2017 article from special Theory Culture and Society issue on Elites and Power after Financialization

Elite Power under Advanced Neoliberalism

Geoff McDonnell

Based on the Market and Price simulation model in System Zoo 3.

I wrote an explanation of the model which you can find here: https://kdrive.infomaniak.com/app/share/1524656/f05f288f-6b27-4b32-87aa-46114dccc956

Z504 Market and Price - System Zoo 3

Henny van Dongen

8 2 months ago

Correlation of National Electrification with Internal and External Influence Factors

Manik Mahajan

This model shows the operation of an extremely simple economy. The system produces and consumes each item (or good) at a fixed rate.

When production exceeds consumption, consumer goods accumulate in stocks. Trading may occur between actors in this system. That will not, however, affect the quantities of the stocks of goods. It only affects ownership (not a concern of this model.)

Simple Economy: Model 1

Jim Berger

4

MODERN MONETARY THEORY SHOWS HOW FULL EMPLOYMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED!

POTENTIAL GDP is a level of overall spending - by the government and the non-government sector - at which there is full employment. If the economy is not operating at its potential, then the private sector has failed to invested or spend enough to generate the necessary growth nor has income from net exports contributed enough. This only leaves the government to close the spending gap. Conceptually, a government disposing of its own freely floating currency could act using two powerful tools - spending in excess of tax revenue, and taxation - to ensure that the gap between the actual economic activity and potential GDP is quickly closed. Achieving the full employment that prevailed for 30 years between 1945 and 1975 in western economies is definitely possible!

MANAGING FULL EMPLOYMENT

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model

Introduction

This model simulates how COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government responses influence the economic community. Government responses are based on the reported COVID-19 cases amount, whcih is considered to be based on testing rate times number of people who are infected minus those recovered from COVID-19 and dead.

Government interventions include the implement of healthy policy, border surveillance, quarantine and travel restriction. After outbreak, economic activities are positively affected by the ecommerce channel development and normal economic grwoth, while the unemployement rate unfortunately increases as well.

Assumption

Enforcing government policies reduce both infection and economica growth.
When there are 10 or greater COVID-19 cases reported, the governmwnt policies are triggered.
Greater COVID-19 cases have negatively influenced the economic activities.
Government policies restict people's activities socially and economically, leading to negative effects on economy.
Opportunities for jobs are cut down too, making umemployment rate increased.
During the outbreak period, ecommerce has increased accordingly because people are restricted from going out.

Interesting insights

An increase in vaccination rate will make difference on reduing the infection. People who get vaccinated are seen to have higher immunity index to fight with COVID-19. Further research is needed.

Testing rate is considered as critical issue to reflect the necessity of government intervention. Higher testing rate seems to boost immediate intervention. Reinforced policies can then reduce the spread of coronvirus but absoluately have negative impacts on economy too.

Mengling Xue 561743 BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data

Mengling Xue

Model description:

This model is designed to simulate the Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania by estimating several factors such as exposed population, infection rate, testing rate, recovery rate, death rate and immunity loss. The model also simulates the measures implemented by the government which will impact on the local infection and economy.

Assumption:

Government policies will reduce the mobility of the population as well as the infection. In addition, economic activities in the tourism and hospitality industry will suffer negative influences from the government measures. However, essential businesses like supermarkets will benefit from the health policies on the contrary.

Variables:

Infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, testing rate are the variables to the cases of Covid-19. On the other hand, the number of cases is also a variable to the government policies, which directly influences the number of exposed.

The GDP is dependent on the variables of economic activities. Nonetheless, the government’s lockdown measure has also become the variable to the economic activities.

Interesting insights:

Government policies are effective to curb infection by reducing the number of exposed when the case number is greater than 10. The economy becomes stagnant when the case spikes up but it climbs up again when the number of cases is under control.

Sample Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania by Yim Fong Ng (544885)

Chrissie Ng

WIP replication of Khalid Saeed's draft paper presented by the Economics chapter of the SD Society in Sept 2019 youtube video

Unlinking public finance and taxation in fiat currency

Geoff McDonnell

World3

Mickaël Ringuet

3

Explanation of the Model

This is a sample model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania showing how the Government responds by implementing relevant health policy and the effects on the Economy of the area.

Assumptions

Economic growth rate is dependent on the proportion of the population who can be exposed. Number of COVID cases negatively impacts the economy. Govt policy is triggered when COVID-19 cases are 10 or more.

Interesting Insights

1) Exposure to the disease has a positive relationship with economic growth rate because the more people goes out, more business activity takes place, resulting in Economic Growth.

2) Increasing the Testing rate results in:

- Higher cases being detected

- Stricter Govt Policy

- Less Deaths

Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania

Mohammad Samiul Islam

5

Based on the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model of disease, this is an upgraded model with more specifc vaeriables.

Insights:

When the growth rate and the number of the recovered is much larger than deaths, the economic activity remain steady growing.

Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania

Yini Song

3

This causal loop diagram illustrates the interconnected factors affecting the economic empowerment of Congolese refugee women in Rwanda, with economic dependency as the central problem reinforced by limited access to vocational training, employment opportunities, and financial services. The diagram shows two key reinforcing loops: one where vocational training leads to employment and income generation, which reduces dependency and improves access to further training (R1), and another where income generation builds self-confidence and skills recognition, leading to better employment opportunities (R2), while language barriers and cultural constraints act as inhibiting factors throughout the system.

Causal Loop Diagram: Economic Empowerment of Congolese refugee women in Rwanda.

Christine

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Climate, Weather, Ecology, Economics, Population, Welfare, Energy, Policy, CO2, Carbon Cycle, GHG (green house gasses, combined effects)

As general population is composed of 85% with an education level of a 12 grader or less (a 17 year old), a simple block of components concerning the health of the planet needs to be broken down into simple blocks.

Perhaps this picture will show the basics on which to vote for a sustained healthy future

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram of Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

3

This model analyzes the interaction between climate change mitigation and adaptation in the land use sector using the concept of forest transition as a framework.

Forest Transition

Martín López Ramírez

4

• This model examines how sustainable consumerism is from social, economic, and environmental aspects. The question in focus is "How will our second-hand clothing donations affect communities in developing countries, specifically Kenya?"

5 Stock Variables:

• U.S. Consumers

• Multinational Corporations

• Overseas Factories

• Kenya

Highlight Findings:

To sum up, there are 4 major problems associated to donations:

• 1. Source of problem is the consumer: Cheap deals attract hundreds of millions in revenue for fast fashion, and contribute to 100,000 tonnes of clothing to Kenya annually.

• 2. Rapid consumerism leads to over-utilization of slowly-renewable resources, such as water.

• 3. Nearly 96% of textiles jobs are eradicated by the massive inflow of clothing donations to Kenya.

• 4. The offshoring of textiles jobs enrages U.S. blue-collar workers, leading to the rise of protectionism.

Environmental, social, and economic sustainability aspects of textiles donations

Christina Cheung

Causal loop diagram illustrating a variety of feedback loops influencing the price of oil.

Oil Price Influencers (3-Loop)

Franz Weismann

10

Crusoe economics test

richardvdlinde

When people talk about a government deficit, they forget that this is only one side of the ledger. On the other is a corresponding non-government SURPLUS. The money the government spends is not lost but shows up in the private sector as income. When one talks only of the deficit then one can understand that many think it should be reduced or even converted into a surplus, but reducing the government deficit reduces private sector income and a government surplus forces a deficit on the private sector with a potentially devastating effect on private sector wealth and economic activity. Unless the economy is overheating, government deficits are usually healthy. For countries that run traditionally a trade deficit, such as the US they are necessary to maintain economic activity. Consider this fact: for almost all of past 40 years the US and the UK have run deficits without any harmful effects!

This video by professor Stephanie Kelton contains evidence that supports the modle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6rlprwQB5E

The Dynamic that shows that Government Deficits benefit the Private Sector

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann