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Rating Matrix of S&P

Rating Matrix

Antonio Espana

Economic capital, with its reinforcing growth loop constrained by a nonrenewable resource. pg 58-66

Fig 37

Fatima Zehra Qazi

4 18 hours ago

Structure of model in Nathan Forrester's 1983 MIT Thesis comprising 4 models

Macroeconomics System Dynamics Nathan Forrester

Geoff McDonnell

3 6 months ago

Peak oil occurs not when there are no more reserves, but when it is too expensive to bring them to the surface. The diagram describes a dynamic where peak oil leads to oil prices that are too low for oil companies to produce oil. There are two keys to understand this counterintuitive situation. First, it is important to realize that without energy (oil) no economic activity can take place. Second, when supplies of oil become scarce, non-elite workers - because of the contraction of the economy - will lose their jobs or suffer salary cuts. This will make goods containing (or using) oil products too expensive for the masses. Demand for those products (most things on the market) will decline and with it demand for oil - oil prices will drop too low for oil companies to produce oil!

These ideas stem from Gail Tverberg's blog: 'Our Finite World'. https://ourfiniteworld.com/

PEAK OIL LEADS TO LOW OIL PRICES

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Farmers use intensive pesticides to harvest cotton, which is harmful to not only the health of the farmers using them, but also our environment as it pollutes rivers and groundwater that negatively interfere with the ecosystem. Even though these farmers know of the health and environmental risks, they still use harmful pesticides to produce cotton, but why is this so. This stock and flow map should explain what impacts farmers to use pesticides to grow cotton despite the risks and explain the cause and effect relationship their use has on the cotton industry and the environment.

According to Clevo Wilson and Clem Tisdell article, "Why farmer continue to use pesticides despite environmental, health and sustainable costs,"

Pesticide use by farmers:

"used to reduce yield losses to pests"
"avoid economic losses to ensure economical survival"
"increase supply market and reduce market prices"
"ignorance of sustainable use"
"integral part of commercially grow high yielding varieties so without use, high yields may not be sustained"
"damage to agriculture land from the use occurs over long period of time so costs may not look serious short term, but reduces economic welfare in long term"
"environmental damage: pollutes rivers and groundwater, destroys beneficial predators and interferes with ecosystem overall"
"health risks underestimated"
"chemical companies selling it have incentive to push their use by advertising and promotion" (1,9).

Farmer Pesticide Use On Cotton

Neilah

This is a reconstruction of the SIMM model presented in Chapter 2 of Feedback Economics (Contemporary Systems Thinking)

@LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube

Simple Macroeconomic Model (SIMM) (SFD)

Gene Bellinger

9

Clone of Wagdy Samir Macroeconomics work in progress IM-901 Additions and deletions based on Robert Skidelsky's description of Keynes general THeory from his Biography Vol2 p 549 -571

Keynes General Theory

Geoff McDonnell

Plan for CCP project completion see IM-102242 for WIP detail of the structures of the related models

CCP Project Scope Deliverables and Extensions

Geoff McDonnell

3

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Real Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.02

Elliott Hansing

I have tried to capture the unemployment benefits budget in a causal loop diagram. You can make this as extensive as you want, but I have tried to focus on how unemployment benefits are financed and on the main determinants of expenditures and income. I was not (yet) able to 'close te loop' - to build the diagram up from feedback cycles.
The diagram is in Dutch.

Causal loop diagram of unemployment benefits

Henny van Dongen

This Insight is the first in a series of models that examine the dynamics of population growth and decline in a simple environment. It follows on from a series of four Insights that introduce the basic concepts of Systems Dynamics that start here.

The next Insight model introduces the concept of limits to growth and explores the more complex behaviour this generates. The model can be found here.

The models are based on the activities from an Open University short course that can be accessed here.

Understanding the Environment 101: Population Dynamics

Bob Hawkins

19

Explanation of the Model

This is a Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania which shows the government actions in response to the pandemic COVID-19 and its affects on the Economy. The government health policy changes depending on the reported cases, which is a dependent upon the testing rate.

Assumptions

Lockdown and travel ban were the main factor in government policy. It negatively impacts on the Economic growth as individuals are not going out which is directly affects the business around the world, in this insight 'Burnie'. This reduces the economic growth and the factors positively effecting economic growth such as Tourism.

Government policies has a negative impact on Exposer of individuals. Moreover, it also has a negative impact on chances of infection when exposed as well as other general infection rate.

Interesting Insight

There is a significant impact of test rating on COVID-19 outbreak. Higher rates increases the government involvement, which decreases cases as well as the total death.

In contrast, lower testing rates increase the death rate and cases.

Tourism which plays a avital role in Tasmanian Economy greatly affects the Economic Growth. The decline of Tourism in parts of Tasmania such as Burnie, would directly decrease the economy of Tasmania.

BMA 708, Assessment Tast 3: Complex System, Burnie COVID-19 outbreak, Diprina Shakya-519673

Diprina Shakya

6

Clone of Pesticide Use in Central America for Lab work

This model is an attempt to simulate what is commonly referred to as the “pesticide treadmill” in agriculture and how it played out in the cotton industry in Central America after the Second World War until around the 1990s.

The cotton industry expanded dramatically in Central America after WW2, increasing from 20,000 hectares to 463,000 in the late 1970s. This expansion was accompanied by a huge increase in industrial pesticide application which would eventually become the downfall of the industry.

The primary pest for cotton production, bol weevil, became increasingly resistant to chemical pesticides as they were applied each year. The application of pesticides also caused new pests to appear, such as leafworms, cotton aphids and whitefly, which in turn further fuelled increased application of pesticides.

The treadmill resulted in massive increases in pesticide applications: in the early years they were only applied a few times per season, but this application rose to up to 40 applications per season by the 1970s; accounting for over 50% of the costs of production in some regions.

The skyrocketing costs associated with increasing pesticide use were one of the key factors that led to the dramatic decline of the cotton industry in Central America: decreasing from its peak in the 1970s to less than 100,000 hectares in the 1990s. “In its wake, economic ruin and environmental devastation were left” as once thriving towns became ghost towns, and once fertile soils were wasted, eroded and abandoned (Lappe, 1998).

Sources: Douglas L. Murray (1994), Cultivating Crisis: The Human Cost of Pesticides in Latin America, pp35-41; Francis Moore Lappe et al (1998), World Hunger: 12 Myths, 2nd Edition, pp54-55.

REM 221 - Causal Loop diagramming

Steve Conrad

371

Stage 5 World Premiere Economy and Fossil Fuels

Victor Wong

Economic BPA/BPS Model

john johnson

This simple model describes wealth accumulation. The value in income is described by the following simple equation:

simple wealth accumulation model

Larry Lee

24

WIP based on Bill mitchell's blogs.

Sectoral balances are relationships among money flows during an accounting period. Where we perceive accumulations of past imbalances to be accrued is another matter....

MMT Fiscal position

Geoff McDonnell

3

About the Model

This model is a dynamic model which explains the relationship between the police of the government and the economy situation in Burnie Tasmania after the outbreak of Corona Virus.

This model is based on SIR model, which explains the dynamic reflection between the people who were susceptible, infected,deaths and recovered.

Assumptions

This model assumes that when the Covid-19 positive is equal or bigger than 10, the government policy can be triggered. This model assumes that the shopping rate in retail shops and the dining rates in the restaurants can only be influenced by the government policy.

Interesting Insights

The government police can have negative influence on the infection process, as it reduced the possibility of people get infected in the public environments. The government policy has a negative effect on shopping rate in retail shops and the dining rate in the restaurants.

However, the government policy would cause negative influence on economy. As people can not shopping as normal they did, and they can not dinning in the restaurants. The retail selling growth rate and restaurant revenue growth rate would be reduced, and the economic situation would go worse.

Corona virus outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Xuexiao Zhang 538712)

Xuexiao Zhang

Simple epidemiological model for Burnie, Tasmania

SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts

Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected. So the government's policy is to reduce infections by increasing the number of people tested and starting early. At the same time, it has slowed the economic growth (which, according to the model, will stop for next 52 weeks).

Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania (Yue Xiang 512994)

Yue Xiang

5

Task 3 - DPSIR model

s243051

4 months ago

Explanation of the Model

The sample model demonstrate the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania appearing how the government reacts by executing important health approaches and the impacts on the economy of the region

Assumptions

The economic growth rate is subordinate on the extent of the populace who can be exposed. The number of COVID-19 cases adversely impacts the economy. The government arrangement is activated when the COVID-19 cases are 10 or above

Interesting Insights

1. There is a positive relationship between exposure to COVID- 19 and economic growth rate. Since the more individuals go out, the more trade activity takes place and that ultimately results economic growth

2. Expanding the testing rate results

- Higher cases being recognized

- Strict government intervention

- Less deaths

BMA708_Assignment3_Md Shihabul Islam_548056

Md Shihabul Islam

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Lab 13 (Scenario 3)

Dustin Gaines

This model bases on the SIR model aims to indicate the relationship between the lockdown policy of the government for combating with COVID-19 and the economic activity in Burnie Tasmania during the pandemic.

This model assumes that more COVID-19 cases will lead to the more serious lockdown policy of the local government, which indirectly affect the economic activities and economic growth. The primary reason is that the lockdown policy force people to stay at home and reduce the chance to work and consume.

The simulation trend of the model is that the economy will keep a steady increase when the serious government policy reduces the COVID-19 spreading speed rate.

COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie model by LUJIN 517217

LU JIN

The complex model reflects the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. The model explains how the COVID-19 outbreak will influence the government policies and economic impacts. The infected population will be based on how many susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals in Burnie. It influences the probability of infected population meeting with susceptible individuals.

The fatality rate will be influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical conditions. Even though individuals can recover from COVID-19 disease, some of them will have immunity loss and become part of the susceptible individuals, or they will be diagnosed with long term illnesses (mental and physical). Thus, these variables influence the number of confirmed cases in Burnie and the implementation of government policies.

The government policies depend on the confirmed COVID-19 cases. The government policies include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing rate. These variables have negative impacts on the infection of COVID-19 disease. However, these policies have some negative effects on commercial industry and positive effects on e-commerce and medical industry. These businesses growth rate can influence the economic growth of Burnie with the economic

Most of the variables are adjustable with the slider provided below. They can be adjusted from 0 to 1, which illustrates the percentages associated with the specific variables. They can also be adjusted to three decimal points, i.e., from 0.1 to 0.001.

Assumptions

- The maximum population of Burnie is 20000.
- The maximum number of infected individuals is 100.
- Government policies are triggered when the COVID-19 cases reach 10 or above.
- The government policies include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing rates only. Other policies are not being considered under this model.
- The vaccination policy implemented by the government is compulsory.
- The testing rate is set by the government. The slider should not be changed unless the testing rate is adjusted by the government.
- The fatality rate is influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical conditions only. Other factors are not being considered under this model.
- People who recovered from COVID-19 disease will definitely suffer form immunity loss or any other long term illnesses.
- Long term illnesses include mental illnesses and physical illnesses only. Other illnesses are not being considered under this model.
- Economic activities are provided with an assumption value of 1000.
- The higher the number of COVID-19 cases, the more negative impact they have on the economy of Burnie.

Interesting Insights

A higher recovery rate can decrease the number of COVID-19 cases as well as the probability of infected population meeting with susceptible persons, but it takes longer for the economy to recover compared to a lower recovery rate. A higher recovery rate can generate a larger number of people diagnosed with long term illnesses.

Testing rate triggers multiple variables, such as government policies, positive cases, susceptible and infected individuals. A lower testing rate can decrease the COVID-19 confirmed cases, but it can increase the number of susceptible people. And a higher testing rate can trigger the implementation of government policies, thus decreasing the infection rate. As the testing rate has a strong correlation with the government policies, it can also influence the economy of Burnie.

BMA708 COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

ching tung li

4