Goodwin Model:
This is a basic version of the Goodwin Model based on Kaoru Yamagushi (2013), Money and Macroeconomic Dynamics, Chapter 4.5 (link)
Equilibrium conditions:
Devation from the equilibrium conditions generates growth cycles.
Goodwin Model
Insight Stage 4 Dress Rehearsal Economy and Fossil Fuels
Commercial aviation economic activity in the EU
The causes of homelessness is illustrated in this causal loop diagram
Homelessness problem
WIP Exttension of IM-172005 Simulation of Goodwin01 Minsky Model. Compare with Part3 slide 5 of presentation in patreon
Goodwin02 Minsky Simulation Keen Economic Dynamics Aug2019
Buying and storing electricity when it is cheap, and selling it when it is expensive. What are the benefits, both public and private?
Smart Grid: Electricity storage and variable energy pricing
WIP based on Bill mitchell's blogs.
Sectoral balances are relationships among money flows during an accounting period. Where we perceive accumulations of past imbalances to be accrued is another matter....
MMT Fiscal position
ABOUT THE MODEL
This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the
health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak
in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the
area.
ASSUMPTIONS
The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly
proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region.
The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.
INTERESTING INSIGHTS
1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy
is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration
rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to
enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government.
2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity.
3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Rajaa Sajjad, 538837)
This is to support a discussion on money flows and growth. Money as a lubricant for the flow of embodied energy in human systems.
See also A Prosperous Way Down website
Odum Money and Energy Flows
Simple epidemiological model for Burnie, Tasmania
SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts
Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected. So the government's policy is to reduce infections by increasing the number of people tested and starting early. At the same time, it has slowed the economic growth (which, according to the model, will stop for next 52 weeks).
Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania (Yue Xiang 512994)
This simple model describes wealth accumulation. The value in income is described by the following simple equation:
simple wealth accumulation model 1.1
Causal loop diagram capturing the interactions, trade-offs, and synergies between agriculture (SDG 2), water availability (SDG 6), economic growth (SDG 8), and life on land (SDG 15). Positive feedback linkages are shown as a positive sign (+), whereas negative feedback linkages are shown with a negative sign (−). The purple arrows indicate the enviro-biophysical linkages. The green arrows indicate the socio-economic linkages. The SDG icons are courtesy of the UN SDG communications material.
Reference - Bandari, Reihaneh, et al. "Participatory Modeling for Analyzing Interactions Between High‐Priority Sustainable Development Goals to Promote Local Sustainability." Earth's Future 11.12 (2023): e2023EF003948.
The Story of Interactions of SDGs
I made this model to simulate how a companies revenue will change depending on the lifetime of the appliances it manufactures, in combination with the ratio of repair costs and price. It also shows the accumulation of e-waste.
Appliances lifetime simulation with folder
• This model examines how sustainable consumerism is from social, economic, and environmental aspects. The question in focus is "
How will our second-hand clothing donations affect communities in developing countries, specifically Kenya?"
5 Stock Variables:
• U.S. Consumers
• Multinational Corporations
• Overseas Factories
• Kenya
Highlight Findings:
To sum up, there are 4 major problems associated to donations:
• 1.
Source of problem is the consumer: Cheap deals attract hundreds of millions in revenue for fast fashion, and contribute to 100,000 tonnes of clothing to Kenya annually.
• 2. Rapid consumerism leads to over-utilization of slowly-renewable resources, such as water.
• 3. Nearly 96% of textiles jobs are eradicated by the massive inflow of clothing donations to Kenya.
• 4. The offshoring of textiles jobs enrages U.S. blue-collar workers, leading to the rise of protectionism.
Environmental, social, and economic sustainability aspects of textiles donations
Any activity requires the use of energy. Economic activity
is not possible without energy,
especially fossil fuels. An increase in economic activity necessarily
leads to an increase in the use fossil
fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there will be a commensurate increase in waste products,
pollution and heat. This is dictated by the laws of physics and unavoidable. A problem arise when the cost of this degeneration
caused by continual economic growth surpasses the benefit society derives from it. The ecological economist Professor Herman Daly (2014) explained that
when the impact on the ecosystem is correctly measured, global growth has reached
a point where the total private and social costs of economic growth outweigh
the private and social benefits. In other words, more economic growth is making global society worse off overall - growth has become uneconomic! The model
shows that eventually pressures will build up that counteract the perennial
belief that all social ills can be solved with economic growth.
The dynamic of UNECONOMIC growth
When people talk about a government deficit, they forget
that this is only one side of the ledger. On the other is a corresponding non-government
SURPLUS. The money the government spends is not lost but shows up in the private
sector as income. When one talks only of the deficit then one can understand that
many think it should be reduced or even converted into a surplus, but reducing
the government deficit reduces private sector income and a government surplus
forces a deficit on the private sector with a potentially devastating
effect on private sector wealth and economic activity. Unless the economy is overheating, government
deficits are usually healthy. For countries that run traditionally a trade deficit,
such as the US they are necessary to maintain economic activity. Consider this
fact: for almost all of past 40 years the US and the UK have run deficits without
any harmful effects!
This video by professor Stephanie Kelton contains evidence that supports the modle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6rlprwQB5E
The Dynamic that shows that Government Deficits benefit the Private Sector
Storytelling of My Investigating Insight Theme
This is an important Henry George insight; labor creates all wealth (rather than capital creating it).
This model attempts to illustrate (crudely) how capital responds to price discovery.
Among many things it will be necessary to show how money is created and the link between money and capital. (10/11/2014)
To Do
find out how to draw appropriate flows; reinforcing and balancing loops etc
Labor creates Wealth
Stage 5 World Premiere Economy and Fossil Fuels
COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model
Introduction
This model simulates how COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government responses influence the economic community. Government responses are based on the reported COVID-19 cases amount, whcih is considered to be based on testing rate times number of people who are infected minus those recovered from COVID-19 and dead.
Government interventions include the implement of healthy policy, border surveillance, quarantine and travel restriction. After outbreak, economic activities are positively affected by the ecommerce channel development and normal economic grwoth, while the unemployement rate unfortunately increases as well.
Assumption
- Enforcing government policies reduce both infection and economica growth.
- When there are 10 or greater COVID-19 cases reported, the governmwnt policies are triggered.
- Greater COVID-19 cases have negatively influenced the economic activities.
- Government policies restict people's activities socially and economically, leading to negative effects on economy.
- Opportunities for jobs are cut down too, making umemployment rate increased.
- During the outbreak period, ecommerce has increased accordingly because people are restricted from going out.
Interesting insights
An increase in vaccination rate will make difference on reduing the infection. People who get vaccinated are seen to have higher immunity index to fight with COVID-19. Further research is needed.
Testing rate is considered as critical issue to reflect the necessity of government intervention. Higher testing rate seems to boost immediate intervention. Reinforced policies can then reduce the spread of coronvirus but absoluately have negative impacts on economy too.
Mengling Xue 561743 BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data
Very simple causal loop diagram of a loan, which can be any loan. However, when the loan is a fixed amount, that needs to be repaid in x periods, you can cross out the 'taking out' arrow from debt to bank account.
Causal loop diagram of a loan
The model is built to demonstrates how Burnie Tasmania can deal with a new COVID-19 outbreaks, taking government policies and economic effects into account.
The susceptible people are the local Burnie residents. If residents were infected, they would either recovered or dead. However, even they do recover, there is a chance that they will get infected again if immunity loss occurs.
From the simulation result we can see that with the implementation of local government policies including travel ban and social distancing, the number of infected people will decrease. The number of recovered people will increase in the first 5 weeks but then experience a decrease.
In addition, with the implementation of local government policy, the economic environment in Burnie will be relatively stable when the number of COVID-19 cases is stable.
How Burnie, Tasmania can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19
WIP Ideas from Science Special Issue May 2014
The Science of Inequality
WIP of Rammelt's 2019 System Dynamics Review Article which has STELLA and Minsky software versions as supplements. Compare with the older IM-2011 version
Simplified Keen Goodwin Minsky Financial Instability model
