A system dynamics model to CBA of smart grid project
A system dynamics model to CBA of smart grid project
11 9 months ago
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
  Goodwin Model:   This is a basic version of the Goodwin Model based on Kaoru Yamagushi (2013),  Money and Macroeconomic Dynamics , Chapter 4.5 ( link )     Equilibrium conditions:   Labor Supply  = 100  Devation from the equilibrium conditions generates growth cycles.
Goodwin Model:
This is a basic version of the Goodwin Model based on Kaoru Yamagushi (2013), Money and Macroeconomic Dynamics, Chapter 4.5 (link)

Equilibrium conditions:
  • Labor Supply = 100
Devation from the equilibrium conditions generates growth cycles.
This Insight is used for simulating growth of a company with specified parameters.
This Insight is used for simulating growth of a company with specified parameters.
Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.
Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.
The model is built to demonstrates how Burnie Tasmania can deal with a new COVID-19 outbreaks, taking government policies and economic effects into account. The susceptible people are the local Burnie residents. If residents were infected, they would either recovered or dead. However, even they do r
The model is built to demonstrates how Burnie Tasmania can deal with a new COVID-19 outbreaks, taking government policies and economic effects into account.
The susceptible people are the local Burnie residents. If residents were infected, they would either recovered or dead. However, even they do recover, there is a chance that they will get infected again if immunity loss occurs.
From the simulation result we can see that with the implementation of local government policies including travel ban and social distancing,  the number of infected people will decrease. The number of recovered people will increase in the first 5 weeks but then experience a decrease.
In addition, with the implementation of local government policy, the economic environment in Burnie will be relatively stable when the number of COVID-19 cases is stable.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover       Assumptions   Govt policy reduces infection and
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.

Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights

Higher testing rates trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy, though, of higher detected cases is negative. 




39 3 months ago
Peak oil occurs not when there are
no more reserves, but when it is too expensive to bring them to the surface. The
diagram describes a dynamic where peak oil leads to oil prices that are too low
for oil companies to produce oil. There are two keys to understand this
counterintuitive situation. Firs
Peak oil occurs not when there are no more reserves, but when it is too expensive to bring them to the surface. The diagram describes a dynamic where peak oil leads to oil prices that are too low for oil companies to produce oil. There are two keys to understand this counterintuitive situation. First, it is important to realize that without energy (oil) no economic activity can take place. Second, when supplies of oil become scarce, non-elite workers  - because of the contraction of the economy - will lose their jobs or suffer salary cuts. This will make goods containing (or using) oil products too expensive for the masses. Demand for those products (most things on the market) will decline and with it demand for oil - oil prices will drop too low for oil companies to produce oil!

These ideas stem from Gail Tverberg's blog: 'Our Finite World'. https://ourfiniteworld.com/

This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse, the fractional rate of saving.) It also, unlike Models 2 & 3, shows the influence Savings has on the  production rate .  In summary, lower rates of co
This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse, the fractional rate of saving.) It also, unlike Models 2 & 3, shows the influence Savings has on the production rate.

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of both production and consumption in the long-run.
   Model description:   This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania, death cases, the governmental responses and Burnie local economy.     More importantly, the impact of governmental responses to both Covid-19 infection and to local economy, the impact of death
Model description:
This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania, death cases, the governmental responses and Burnie local economy. 

More importantly, the impact of governmental responses to both Covid-19 infection and to local economy, the impact of death cases to local economy are illustrated. 

The model is based on SIR (Susceptible, Infected and recovered) model. 

Variables:
The simulation takes into account the following variables: 

Variables related to Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): Death rate. (4): Immunity loss rate. 

Variables related to Governmental policies: (1): Vaccination mandate. (2): Travel restriction to Burnie. (3): Economic support. (4): Gathering restriction.

Variables related to economic growth: Economic growth rate. 

Adjustable variables are listed in the part below, together with the adjusting range.

Assumptions:
(1): Governmental policies are aimed to control(reduce) Covid-19 infections and affect (both reduce and increase) economic growth accordingly.

(2) Governmental policy will only be applied when reported cases are 10 or more. 

(3) The increasing cases will negatively influence Burnie economic growth.

Enlightening insights:
(1) Vaccination mandate, when changing from 80% to 100%, doesn't seem to affect the number of death cases.

(2) Governmental policies are effectively control the growing death cases and limit it to 195. 

Irving Fisher's Debt Deflation Theory from Michael Joffe Fig. 3.4 p54  Ch3 Feedback Economics Book  with Private Credit Inflation boom added to the  bust cycles
Irving Fisher's Debt Deflation Theory from Michael Joffe Fig. 3.4 p54 Ch3 Feedback Economics Book with Private Credit Inflation boom added to the  bust cycles
From Schluter et al 2017  article  A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems COMSeS2017  video .   See also Balke and Gilbert 2014 JASSS  article  How do agents make decisions? (recommended by Kurt Kreuger U of S)
From Schluter et al 2017 article A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems COMSeS2017 video. See also Balke and Gilbert 2014 JASSS article How do agents make decisions? (recommended by Kurt Kreuger U of S)
A simple model for cc adoption which depends on several condions.
A simple model for cc adoption which depends on several condions.