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HANDY Model of Societal Collapse from Ecological Economics Paper

see also D Cunha's model at IM-15085 (Spanish)

Human and Nature Dynamics of Societal Inequality

19 7 months ago

The model is built to demonstrates how Burnie Tasmania can deal with a new COVID-19 outbreaks, taking government policies and economic effects into account.

The susceptible people are the local Burnie residents. If residents were infected, they would either recovered or dead. However, even they do recover, there is a chance that they will get infected again if immunity loss occurs.

From the simulation result we can see that with the implementation of local government policies including travel ban and social distancing, the number of infected people will decrease. The number of recovered people will increase in the first 5 weeks but then experience a decrease.

In addition, with the implementation of local government policy, the economic environment in Burnie will be relatively stable when the number of COVID-19 cases is stable.

How Burnie, Tasmania can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19

Jie Sun

3

Tourism Flow

Robert Luetkemeier

Decarbonization Stories

Dean M

12

My Insight_ENVS8019 report 5 exercise

Tilia

Buying and storing electricity when it is cheap, and selling it when it is expensive. What are the benefits, both public and private?

Smart Grid: Electricity storage and variable energy pricing

Carlos

14

FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION
BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

FORCED GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE

Guy Lakeman

5

Correlation of National Electrification with Internal and External Influence Factors

Manik Mahajan

Farmers use intensive pesticides to harvest cotton, which is harmful to not only the health of the farmers using them, but also our environment as it pollutes rivers and groundwater that negatively interfere with the ecosystem. Even though these farmers know of the health and environmental risks, they still use harmful pesticides to produce cotton, but why is this so. This stock and flow map should explain what impacts farmers to use pesticides to grow cotton despite the risks and explain the cause and effect relationship their use has on the cotton industry and the environment.

According to Clevo Wilson and Clem Tisdell article, "Why farmer continue to use pesticides despite environmental, health and sustainable costs,"

Pesticide use by farmers:

"used to reduce yield losses to pests"
"avoid economic losses to ensure economical survival"
"increase supply market and reduce market prices"
"ignorance of sustainable use"
"integral part of commercially grow high yielding varieties so without use, high yields may not be sustained"
"damage to agriculture land from the use occurs over long period of time so costs may not look serious short term, but reduces economic welfare in long term"
"environmental damage: pollutes rivers and groundwater, destroys beneficial predators and interferes with ecosystem overall"
"health risks underestimated"
"chemical companies selling it have incentive to push their use by advertising and promotion" (1,9).

Farmer Pesticide Use On Cotton

Neilah

World3

Mickaël Ringuet

3

Based on the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model of disease, this is an upgraded model with more specifc vaeriables.

Insights:

When the growth rate and the number of the recovered is much larger than deaths, the economic activity remain steady growing.

Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania

Yini Song

3

• This model examines how sustainable consumerism is from social, economic, and environmental aspects. The question in focus is "How will our second-hand clothing donations affect communities in developing countries, specifically Kenya?"

5 Stock Variables:

• U.S. Consumers

• Multinational Corporations

• Overseas Factories

• Kenya

Highlight Findings:

To sum up, there are 4 major problems associated to donations:

• 1. Source of problem is the consumer: Cheap deals attract hundreds of millions in revenue for fast fashion, and contribute to 100,000 tonnes of clothing to Kenya annually.

• 2. Rapid consumerism leads to over-utilization of slowly-renewable resources, such as water.

• 3. Nearly 96% of textiles jobs are eradicated by the massive inflow of clothing donations to Kenya.

• 4. The offshoring of textiles jobs enrages U.S. blue-collar workers, leading to the rise of protectionism.

Environmental, social, and economic sustainability aspects of textiles donations

Christina Cheung

This model analyzes the interaction between climate change mitigation and adaptation in the land use sector using the concept of forest transition as a framework.

Forest Transition

Martín López Ramírez

4

This causal loop diagram illustrates the interconnected factors affecting the economic empowerment of Congolese refugee women in Rwanda, with economic dependency as the central problem reinforced by limited access to vocational training, employment opportunities, and financial services. The diagram shows two key reinforcing loops: one where vocational training leads to employment and income generation, which reduces dependency and improves access to further training (R1), and another where income generation builds self-confidence and skills recognition, leading to better employment opportunities (R2), while language barriers and cultural constraints act as inhibiting factors throughout the system.

Causal Loop Diagram: Economic Empowerment of Congolese refugee women in Rwanda.

Christine

11 months ago

Pathways Causal Loop - Health

Mandy Ableidinger

9

COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model

Introduction

This model simulates how COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government responses influence the economic community. Government responses are based on the reported COVID-19 cases amount, whcih is considered to be based on testing rate times number of people who are infected minus those recovered from COVID-19 and dead.

Government interventions include the implement of healthy policy, border surveillance, quarantine and travel restriction. After outbreak, economic activities are positively affected by the ecommerce channel development and normal economic grwoth, while the unemployement rate unfortunately increases as well.

Assumption

Enforcing government policies reduce both infection and economica growth.
When there are 10 or greater COVID-19 cases reported, the governmwnt policies are triggered.
Greater COVID-19 cases have negatively influenced the economic activities.
Government policies restict people's activities socially and economically, leading to negative effects on economy.
Opportunities for jobs are cut down too, making umemployment rate increased.
During the outbreak period, ecommerce has increased accordingly because people are restricted from going out.

Interesting insights

An increase in vaccination rate will make difference on reduing the infection. People who get vaccinated are seen to have higher immunity index to fight with COVID-19. Further research is needed.

Testing rate is considered as critical issue to reflect the necessity of government intervention. Higher testing rate seems to boost immediate intervention. Reinforced policies can then reduce the spread of coronvirus but absoluately have negative impacts on economy too.

Mengling Xue 561743 BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data

Mengling Xue

Crusoe economics test

richardvdlinde

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions

The government has reduced both the epidemic and economic development by controlling immigration.

Yuhao c, BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data.

Yuhao Chen

This is a protoype of the bahai high level economic model in accordance to the bahai-economic principles.

Bahai high level economic model

Werner Schoenfeldinger

When people talk about a government deficit, they forget that this is only one side of the ledger. On the other is a corresponding non-government SURPLUS. The money the government spends is not lost but shows up in the private sector as income. When one talks only of the deficit then one can understand that many think it should be reduced or even converted into a surplus, but reducing the government deficit reduces private sector income and a government surplus forces a deficit on the private sector with a potentially devastating effect on private sector wealth and economic activity. Unless the economy is overheating, government deficits are usually healthy. For countries that run traditionally a trade deficit, such as the US they are necessary to maintain economic activity. Consider this fact: for almost all of past 40 years the US and the UK have run deficits without any harmful effects!

This video by professor Stephanie Kelton contains evidence that supports the modle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6rlprwQB5E

The Dynamic that shows that Government Deficits benefit the Private Sector

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Introduction:

This model aims to show that how the Tasmania government's COVID-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policies can damage the economy.

Assumption:

Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actual situation.

The government will implement stricter travel bans and social distant policies as there are more cases.

Government policies reduce infection and limit economic growth at the same time.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.

Interesting insights:

A higher testing rate will make the infection increase and the infection rate will slightly increase as well.

Government policies are effective to lower the infection, however, they will damage the local economy. While the higher number of COVID-19 cases also influences economic activities.

Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie_Guoyu Shen

Guoyu Shen

Based on G.P. Cimellaro et al. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 3639–3649 paper

Facilities Disaster Resilience

Geoff McDonnell

CLD ofClimate Change & Economic Activity

Victoria Yanco

Irving Fisher's Debt Deflation Theory from Michael Joffe Fig. 3.4 p54 Ch3 Feedback Economics Book with Private Credit Inflation boom added to the bust cycles

Irving Fisher's Debt Deflation Theory

Geoff McDonnell