Launch page for Macroeconomics Textbook 2019 by Mitchell, Wray and Watts. There is also a book companion site

I propose we grow this sim model (or similar) over time to help ourselves better understand the opposing investment and austerity strategies now being advocated for the U.S. government. The hope is to build as simple a model as possible that subsumes the major underlying feedback loops that probably exist in the mental models of proponents of each of these positions. Starting this model was inspired by this Investment vs. Austerity discussion http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Investment-vs-Austerity-How-can-4582801.S.157876413

Multiscale view of Combined PH and Economic Views IM 70763  in preparation for integrating with Prevention Investment Framework (private) IM

Overview 

This model not only reveals the conflict between proposed logging of adjacent coups and Mountain bike in Derby but also simulates competition between them. The simulation model aims to investigate the potential coexistence opportunities between the mountain biking and forestry and find out the optimal point for coexistence to help improve Tasmania’s economy. 

 

How the model works 

It is recognized that the mountain biking and forestry industries can help support the Tasmanian community and strengthen the Tasmanian economy. The logging and forest sector in Derby can help the local community generate wealth and create more employment opportunities. The sector main source of income come from selling timber such as domestic and export sales. Nevertheless, the sector’s profit has decreased over the past few years on account of the weaker demand and reduced output. Accordingly, the profitability and output of the sector have fluctuated in response to the availability of timber, the timber price movements as well as the impact of changing demand conditions in downstream timber processing sectors. The slow growth rate for a timber has a negative impact on the profitability of the forestry industry and the economic contribution of this industry is set to grow slower, as there is a positive correlation between these variables. In addition, the mountain biking industry in Derby can bring a huge significant economic contribution to the local community. The revenue streams of the industry come from bike rental, accommodation, retail purchase and meals and beverages. These variables also influence the past experience which is positive correlation between reviews and satisfaction that can impact the demand for the mountain biking trails. More importantly, the low regeneration rate for a timber can have a negative impact on the landscape of the mountain biking and the tourist’s past experience that led to a decrease in the demand of tourists for the mountain biking, as the reviews and satisfaction are dependent on the landscape and past experience. It is evident that the industry not only helps the local community generate wealth through industry value addition but also creates a lot of employment opportunities. Therefore, the Mountain Bike Trails can be regarded as sustainable tourism that can help increase employment opportunities and economic contribution that can be of main economic significance to the Tasmania’s economy. Therefore, both industries can co-exist that can maximise the economic contribution to the local community and the Tasmanian economy.

Interesting Insights

It is interesting to note that the activity of cutting down trees does not influence the development of Mountain Biking industry. By lowering the prices of accommodation, food, bike rental and souvenirs, it can help increase the reviews and recommendations of Mountain Biking that will enhance the number of tourists. In this case, the Mountain Biking industry can achieve sustainable economic growth in the long-term while the economic growth rate of forestry industry will continue to decrease. 

WIP Summary of MIchael Hudson's Book Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt destroy the Global Economy 

This model shows the operation of a simple economy with two modifications made to Model 2 -- 1) feedback from production rate to consumption rate and 2) the use of a fractional rate input for calculating consumption rate. 

In summary, lower fractional rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher levels of Savings.

The upper diagram shows the principal factors that have an influence on the budget deficit and indicates what needs to be done to correct it. But this is not the full story. The diagram below shows that  cutting public expenditure reduces aggregate demand and  increases unemployment. The reduction of aggregate demand  reduces  economic activity which has the effect of reducing  tax revenue.  In addition, the state has to pay out funds as there is a need for more unemployment benefit payments.   The result of these austerity measures  is often the opposite of their intended purpose: they can increase rather than decrease the budget deficit.

There is plenty of empiric evidence to show that this has happened time and time again. For instance, a report from UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) found that between 1990 and 2000 in all the  cases examined where cutbacks in public spending and tax increases were used, the fiscal situation did not only not improve but worsened. Despite such repeated evidence, unfortunately calls for  austerity measures continue to be heard. 

During the 'big recession' many governments have deliberately repressed salaries, usually via structural reforms, in order to gain competitivity. However, repression of salaries increases inequality, social discontent and often has counterintuitive effects. Salaries are a cost for companies, but they are also the basis for the demand for the goods and services they offer: people with little income cannot afford them. Scientific studies have shown repeatedly that economic growth generated via salary increases does not endanger the creation of employment, but rather reinforces it. In most countries, the 'positive effect of salary increases' eclipses any possible negative effects on export competitivity and even any detrimental effect on investment. A good example of such a study is the work of ONARAN and OBST on Wage-led Growth in the EU15 Member States (2016).  This positive dynamic has been highlighted in the model by prominent arrows. The policy implications for governments are clear! 

Irving Fisher's Debt Deflation Theory from Michael Joffe Fig. 3.4 p54 Ch3 Feedback Economics Book with Private Credit Inflation boom added to the  bust cycles

WIP SD representation of Ch11 of their 2007 Monetary Economics book, as suggested by Adam K. Plan is to do a top down simple money flow SFC mmt model and successively split sectors. See also essence of MMT IM and simpler version Ch3 IM

 Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen. THis can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.

Unfolding story based on Bogdanov's original A Short Course of Economic Science text and Pilyugina's 2019 article

WIP of Rammelt's 2019 System Dynamics Review Article which has STELLA and Minsky software versions as supplements. Compare with the older IM-2011 version

A clone of the Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen's illustration of Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis "stability begets instability". This can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/4538470.

This model requires development and testing. Please contact the author if you are able to help.