The complex model reflects the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. The model explains how the COVID-19 outbreak will influence the government policies and economic impacts. The infected population will be based on how many susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals in Burnie. It influences the probability of infected population meeting with susceptible individuals.

The fatality rate will be influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical conditions. Even though individuals can recover from COVID-19 disease, some of them will have immunity loss and become part of the susceptible individuals, or they will be diagnosed with long term illnesses (mental and physical). Thus, these variables influence the number of confirmed cases in Burnie and the implementation of government policies.

The government policies depend on the confirmed COVID-19 cases. The government policies include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing rate. These variables have negative impacts on the infection of COVID-19 disease. However, these policies have some negative effects on commercial industry and positive effects on e-commerce and medical industry. These businesses growth rate can influence the economic growth of Burnie with the economic

Most of the variables are adjustable with the slider provided below. They can be adjusted from 0 to 1, which illustrates the percentages associated with the specific variables. They can also be adjusted to three decimal points, i.e., from 0.1 to 0.001.

Assumptions

- The maximum population of Burnie is 20000.
- The maximum number of infected individuals is 100.
- Government policies are triggered when the COVID-19 cases reach 10 or above.
- The government policies include business restrictions, lock down, vaccination and testing rates only. Other policies are not being considered under this model.
- The vaccination policy implemented by the government is compulsory.
- The testing rate is set by the government. The slider should not be changed unless the testing rate is adjusted by the government.
- The fatality rate is influenced by the elderly population and pre-existing medical conditions only. Other factors are not being considered under this model.
- People who recovered from COVID-19 disease will definitely suffer form immunity loss or any other long term illnesses.
- Long term illnesses include mental illnesses and physical illnesses only. Other illnesses are not being considered under this model.
- Economic activities are provided with an assumption value of 1000.
- The higher the number of COVID-19 cases, the more negative impact they have on the economy of Burnie. 

Interesting Insights

A higher recovery rate can decrease the number of COVID-19 cases as well as the probability of infected population meeting with susceptible persons, but it takes longer for the economy to recover compared to a lower recovery rate. A higher recovery rate can generate a larger number of people diagnosed with long term illnesses.

Testing rate triggers multiple variables, such as government policies, positive cases, susceptible and infected individuals. A lower testing rate can decrease the COVID-19 confirmed cases, but it can increase the number of susceptible people. And a higher testing rate can trigger the implementation of government policies, thus decreasing the infection rate. As the testing rate has a strong correlation with the government policies, it can also influence the economy of Burnie. 

Model-SIM from Chapter 3 of Wynn Godley and Marc Lavoie's Monetary Economics, adapted for an open economy. The model is stock-flow consistent with only government money--no bills or bonds. No central bank and interest rates do not change. Government spends buying output from the production sector. The production sector is passive turning over all revenue over to households. Households save out of income and spend partially spend out of wealth. Imports and exports pass through the production sector illustrating the idea that consumer households buy from domestic businesses that which they have imported. The model also tracks the sectoral balance flows and changes in equity. Sectoral flows and equity balances match each other dollar for dollar to satisfy the sectoral balances accounting identity (Household Saving - Consumption) + (Business Saving - Expenditure) + (Taxes - Government Spending) - (Exports - Imports) = 0. Since business investment occurs internally to the Business Sector, 

Based on chapter 14 of Modeling Dynamic Economic Systems

Study of the self-and all the rest society

MODERN MONETARY THEORY SHOWS HOW FULL EMPLOYMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED!

POTENTIAL GDP is a level of overall spending - by the government and the non-government sector - at which there is full employment. If the economy is not operating at its potential, then the  private sector has failed to invested or spend enough to generate the necessary growth nor has income  from net exports contributed enough. This only leaves the government to close the spending gap. Conceptually, a government disposing of its own freely floating currency could act using two powerful tools -  spending in excess of tax revenue, and taxation - to ensure that the gap between the actual economic activity and potential GDP is quickly closed. Achieving the  full employment that prevailed for 30 years between 1945 and 1975 in western economies is definitely possible! 

Smithian growth model from Michael Joffe Fig. 3.7 p57 Ch3 Feedback Economics Book

Develop a system model using the gathered  Biophysical, Socio-economic, and Cultural data of Iwahig

This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse, the fractional rate of saving.) It also, unlike Models 2 & 3, shows the influence Savings has on the production rate.

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of both production and consumption in the long-run.

This model simulates the economics of buying a home. It was created to compare buying a home against using investment returns to pay for rent. According to Micheal Finke, house prices typically run 20x monthly rental rates. 

This Model was developed from the SEIR Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) and it predicts the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. This pandemic outbreak contributes to diverse rates including infection rate, death rates and recovery rate, government policies and its economic impacts.    

Assumptions:

 This model is driven by its determined rates, e.g., incubation rate, morality rate, test rate and immunity loss rate and its recovery rate.

Government policies are involved in fully vaccination rate, social distance, national border closure, travel, and business restriction which effect Burnie’s economy.

There are three economic entities dimensions in Burnie Island, we can tell that the pandemic has negative impact on Brick-and-Mortar enterprises and tourism business to some extent, whereas, e commercial business plays a crucial role to stimulate the regional economic activities during the COVID-19 period.

 

Interesting Insights:

 The figure of susceptible changes significantly during the initial 3 weeks because of low recovery rate and high infection rate. On the other hand, the implementation and interventions of government policies is effective, because the number of patients who tested negative is increased and the majority of them release and go back home after medical follow-up. 

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

This model demonstrate how the exisitng tested COVID cases effects economic recovery via goverment intervenes.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Based on G.P. Cimellaro et al. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 3639–3649 paper

​Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Economic capital growth in a system constrained by a non-renewable resource, Figure 37 from Thinking in Systems by Donella H. Meadows

Implementation of a DSGE Model solved in a Macroeconomics class by Harald Uhlig (link), using Rational Expectations, in this case, the Hansens Real Business Cycle Model.

Sandbox for testing InsightMaker features using pipeline Construction & ROW land conversion as a driver of changes in ecosystem service value.

References:

http://hcrs.co/wp-content/uploads/Hay%20Egg%20Loss%20Folder/
Dahlberg%201979%20A%20Review%20of%20Surviva
l%20Rates%20of.pdf

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-36716579

https://adventure.howstuffworks.com/outdoor-activities/fishing/fish-conservation/fish-populations/fishing-quota1.htm

https://healthresearchfunding.org/pros-cons-fish-farming/

http://www.academyforchange.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Fishery-Causal-Loop-Diagram-2011.9.pdf

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/Library/329545.pdf

http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-2/fisheries/illegal-fishing/

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/stats/commercial/cfs/2012/section4-eng.htm

http://fishcount.org.uk/fish-count-estimates

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/how-many-fish-are-there-in-the-ocean.html

http://www.umich.edu/~csfound/545/1998/narayans/chap07.htm

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09669580802276000

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/oceans/mpa-zpm/index-eng.html

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/selling-sea-how-our-fish-lost-their-freedom-market-forces

Projeto  de investimentos , custos   e viabilidade econômico de LCC

A planta foi dimensionada para produzir 9.000 Ton/ano da Resina usando o matéria prima

LCC , operando 24h/dia, durante os três turnos por 300 dias/anuais. O preço do produto de projeto de lcc 

veja  o prova html aula passados 

1. Calcule o investimento em planta (If) usando o método rápido e investimento em

equipamento (Ie) baseado no método de lang. Admita valor de N e f1 de acordo com o fluxograma do processo.

Dados fornecidos: Entrada (alimentação)-sólido; Saída-líquido;

Equipamentos principais da produção: Destilador e fermentador.

2. Calcule o investimento fixo total pelo método chilton através das estimativas dos investimentos fixos diretos: Tubulação, instrumentação, estrutura física, planta de serviço e conexões entre unidades; e investimentos fixos indiretos. Tome como base o investimento em equipamentos.

             veja dados na prova html   simulados sobre fator chiltons , modelos  de lang , decico , chiltons e dados na prova html 

3. Calcule o custo de mão-de- obra direta e indireta baseando-se no fluxograma de processo , atualizando  o valor salário mínimo e nos salários:

Valor do salário mínimo = R$180,00

Engenheiro químico = 10 salários mínimos

Operador industrial = 3 salários mínimos

Administração:

Gerente = 8 salários mínimos

Auxiliar de escritório = 3 salários mínimos

Secretária = 2 salários mínimos

Dados fornecidos: Considere os encargos sociais de 65% sobre o salário base. Mão-de- obra

indireta seja 20% da mão-de- obra direta. O custo de mão-de- obra indireta engloba

manutenção.

4. Calcule os custos fixos abaixo, baseando-se pelo método Sebrae:

Dados 

4.1 Depreciação = 10%If

4.2 Manutenção = 3%If

4.3 Seguro = 1%If

4.4 Imposto = 2%If

5. Calcule o custo de consumo anual de matéria-prima de acordo com os dados  , veja prova html a seguir 

5.2 Calcule o custo unitário de matéria prima sendo 80% do valor do custo total anual da

matéria-prima. , dados  , veja na link enunciados  e prova html 

6. Calcule os custos totais:

6.1 Encargos anuais

6.2 Administração = 0.6 (mão-de- obra direta + mão-de- obra indireta + encargos anuais)

6.3 Suprimentos = 0.15 (Manutenção)

6.4 Calcule os custos fixos

6.5 Calcule os custos variáveis

6.6 Calcule os custos variáveis

* Os custos fixos englobam administração

Custo variável = custo de matéria – prima + custo de utilitários + custo de suprimentos.

Custo de suprimentos é 10% da mão-de- obra direta.

Depreciação = 10% do investimento fixo.

7. Estimar o ponto de equilíbrio em quantidade e em porcentagem baseado em dados obtidos de custo variável unitário) e Custo fixo do problema 06.

8. Estime os itens da análise de investimento:

– Taxa de retorno de engenharia simples

– Tempo de retorno

– % de lucro em relação ao preço de venda

– Lucro após o imposto de renda

– Lucratividade

– Rentabilidade

– Fluxo de caixa

9. Estimar potencial econômico de projeto de perdas devido ao baixo rendimento de operação em nível de 90% de rendimento máximo em vez de 98%.

 

 Dados de  consumos de  materiais e energia obtidos  via uso de calculadora usando    quiz html de modelos já apresentados aula passos