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This model analyzes the interaction between climate change mitigation and adaptation in the land use sector using the concept of forest transition as a framework.
Forest Transition
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• This model examines how sustainable consumerism is from social, economic, and environmental aspects. The question in focus is "How will our second-hand clothing donations affect communities in developing countries, specifically Kenya?"

5 Stock Variables: 
• U.S. Consumers
• Multinational Corporations
• Overseas Factories
• Kenya

Highlight Findings: 
To sum up, there are 4 major problems associated to donations:
• 1. Source of problem is the consumer: Cheap deals attract hundreds of millions in revenue for fast fashion, and contribute to 100,000 tonnes of clothing to Kenya annually. 
• 2. Rapid consumerism leads to over-utilization of slowly-renewable resources, such as water.
• 3. Nearly 96% of textiles jobs are eradicated by the massive inflow of clothing donations to Kenya. 
• 4. The offshoring of textiles jobs enrages U.S. blue-collar workers, leading to the rise of protectionism.  



Environmental, social, and economic sustainability aspects of textiles donations
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COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model

Introduction

This model simulates how COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie and how the government responses influence the economic community.  Government responses are based on the reported COVID-19 cases amount, whcih is considered to be based on testing rate times number of people who are infected minus those recovered from COVID-19 and dead.
Government interventions include the implement of healthy policy, border surveillance, quarantine and travel restriction. After outbreak, economic activities are positively affected by the ecommerce channel development and normal economic grwoth, while the unemployement rate unfortunately increases as well. 

Assumption
  • Enforcing government policies reduce both infection and economica growth.                                                                                                         
  • When there are 10 or greater COVID-19 cases reported, the governmwnt policies are triggered.                                                          
  • Greater COVID-19 cases have negatively influenced the economic activities.                                                                                             
  • Government policies restict people's activities socially and economically, leading to negative effects on economy.                                          
  • Opportunities for jobs are cut down too, making umemployment rate increased.                                                                                   
  • During the outbreak period, ecommerce has increased accordingly because people are restricted from going out.                                  
Interesting insights

An increase in vaccination rate will make difference on reduing the infection. People who get vaccinated are seen to have higher immunity index to fight with COVID-19. Further research is needed.

Testing rate is considered as critical issue to reflect the necessity of government intervention. Higher testing rate seems to boost immediate intervention. Reinforced policies can then reduce the spread of coronvirus but absoluately have negative impacts on economy too.
Mengling Xue 561743 BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data
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Any activity  requires the use of energy. Economic activity is not possible without energy,  especially fossil fuels. An increase in economic activity necessarily leads to an increase in the use  fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there will   be a commensurate increase in waste products, pollution and heat. This is dictated by the laws of physics and unavoidable.  A problem arise when the cost of this degeneration caused by continual economic growth surpasses the benefit society derives from it. The ecological economist Professor Herman Daly (2014) explained that when the impact on the ecosystem is correctly measured, global growth has reached a point where the total private and social costs of economic growth outweigh the private and social benefits. In other words, more economic growth is making global society worse off overall - growth has become uneconomic! The model shows that eventually pressures will build up that counteract the perennial belief that all social ills can be solved with economic growth. 

The dynamic of UNECONOMIC growth
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This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Lindsey Graham's economic policy based on the information at: http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/restore-fiscal-discipline/     http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/ease-tax-and-regulatory-burdens/      http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/achieve-energy-independence/     http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/reform-entitlements/       The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
DRAFT IPA of Lindsey Graham Economic Policy
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​Farmers use intensive pesticides to harvest cotton, which is harmful to not only the health of the farmers using them, but also our environment as it pollutes rivers and groundwater that negatively interfere with the ecosystem. Even though these farmers know of the health and environmental risks, they still use harmful pesticides to produce cotton, but why is this so. This stock and flow map should explain what impacts farmers to use pesticides to grow cotton despite the risks and explain the cause and effect relationship their use has on the cotton industry and the environment.
According to Clevo Wilson and Clem Tisdell article, "Why farmer continue to use pesticides despite environmental, health and sustainable costs,"

Pesticide use by farmers:
  • "used to reduce yield losses to pests"
  • "avoid economic losses to ensure economical survival"
  • "increase supply market and reduce market prices"
  • "ignorance of sustainable use"
  • "integral part of commercially grow high yielding varieties so without use, high yields may not be sustained"
  • "damage to agriculture land from the use occurs over long period of time so costs may not look serious short term, but reduces economic welfare in long term"
  • "environmental damage: pollutes rivers and groundwater, destroys beneficial predators and interferes with ecosystem overall"
  • "health risks underestimated"
  • "chemical companies selling it have incentive to push their use by advertising and promotion" (1,9).
Farmer Pesticide Use On Cotton
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To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity, since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. So whilst economic activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a break on economic growth and wealth.  As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'

Clone of LIMITS TO ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROMINENT NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOPS
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Unfolding story based on Emery Roe's 2013 book Making the Most of Mess, revised in 2026. See also Dynamics in Action IM-3239 for more on behavior and The Art of the State IM-11962 for more on Grid-Group Cultural Theory
Managing Mess
4 last month
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WIP of Rammelt's 2019 System Dynamics Review Article which has STELLA and Minsky software versions as supplements. Compare with the older IM-2011 version

Simplified Keen Goodwin Minsky Financial Instability model
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Introduction:
This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. It shows how the government policy tries to reduce the spread of COVID-19 whilst also impacting the local economy.

Assumptions:
This model has four variables that influence the number of COVID-19 cases: infection rate, immunity loss rate, recovery rate and death rate.

In order to reduce the pandemic spread, in this model, assume the government released six policies when Burnie COVID-19 cases are equal or over 10 cases. Policies are vaccination promotion, travel restriction to Burnie, quarantine, social distance, lockdown and testing rate.

Government policies would reduce the pandemic. However, it decreases economic growth at the same time. In this model, only list three variable that influence local economic activities. 
Travel restrictions and quarantine will reduce Burnie tourism and decrease the local economy. On the other hand, quarantine, social distance, lockdown allow people to stay at home, increasing E-commerce business.
As a result, policies that cause fewer COVID-19 cases also cause more considerable negative damage to the economy.

Interesting insights:
One of the interesting findings is that the government policy would reduce the COVID-19 spread significantly if I adjust the total government policies are over 20% (vaccine promotion, travel restriction, quarantine, social distance, lockdown), 3560 people will die, then no more people get COVID-19.
However, if I change the total government policy to less than 5%, the whole Burnie people will die according to the model. Therefore, we need to follow the polices, which saves our lives.
BMA708 assignment3 - Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie
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To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity, since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. So whilst economic activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a break on economic growth and wealth.  As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'

Clone of LIMITS TO ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROMINENT NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOPS
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When people talk about a government deficit, they forget that this is only one side of the ledger. On the other is a corresponding non-government SURPLUS. The money the government spends is not lost but shows up in the private sector as income. When one talks only of the deficit then one can understand that many think it should be reduced or even converted into a surplus, but reducing the government deficit reduces private sector income and a government surplus forces a deficit on the private sector with a potentially devastating effect on private sector wealth and economic activity.  Unless the economy is overheating, government deficits are usually healthy. For countries that run traditionally a trade deficit, such as the US they are necessary to maintain economic activity. Consider this fact: for almost all of past 40 years the US and the UK have run deficits without any harmful effects!

This video by professor Stephanie Kelton contains evidence that supports the modle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6rlprwQB5E

The Dynamic that shows that Government Deficits benefit the Private Sector
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ABOUT THE MODEL

This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the area.

 ASSUMPTIONS

The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region. The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government. 

2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity. 

3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.


COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Rajaa Sajjad, 538837)
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Clone of Pesticide Use in Central America for Lab work


This model is an attempt to simulate what is commonly referred to as the “pesticide treadmill” in agriculture and how it played out in the cotton industry in Central America after the Second World War until around the 1990s.

The cotton industry expanded dramatically in Central America after WW2, increasing from 20,000 hectares to 463,000 in the late 1970s. This expansion was accompanied by a huge increase in industrial pesticide application which would eventually become the downfall of the industry.

The primary pest for cotton production, bol weevil, became increasingly resistant to chemical pesticides as they were applied each year. The application of pesticides also caused new pests to appear, such as leafworms, cotton aphids and whitefly, which in turn further fuelled increased application of pesticides. 

The treadmill resulted in massive increases in pesticide applications: in the early years they were only applied a few times per season, but this application rose to up to 40 applications per season by the 1970s; accounting for over 50% of the costs of production in some regions. 

The skyrocketing costs associated with increasing pesticide use were one of the key factors that led to the dramatic decline of the cotton industry in Central America: decreasing from its peak in the 1970s to less than 100,000 hectares in the 1990s. “In its wake, economic ruin and environmental devastation were left” as once thriving towns became ghost towns, and once fertile soils were wasted, eroded and abandoned (Lappe, 1998). 

Sources: Douglas L. Murray (1994), Cultivating Crisis: The Human Cost of Pesticides in Latin America, pp35-41; Francis Moore Lappe et al (1998), World Hunger: 12 Myths, 2nd Edition, pp54-55.

Clone of REM 221 - Causal Loop diagramming
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Marine tourism and snorkeling in the maldives
5 11 months ago
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WIP Ideas from Science Special Issue May 2014
The Science of Inequality
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Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.

Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.
Why Nations Fail
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Health Determinants
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The economy is a self-organizing system that needs continuous growth and a constant inflow of energy and materials in order to maintain itself.  Absence of growth will make the system fragile, and economic contraction could lead very quickly to its collapse. These are characteristics of dissipative systems that apply to the free market economy. Another characteristic is that economic activity will unavoidably lead to the generation of waste heat, greenhouse gases and waste materials that the system must expel into its environment, making the system unviable in the present context of global warming and increasing oil prices.

The simplified graphic representation of the economy shows how it is basically profits that generate the funds for the resources needed to guarantee that the system can continue to grow. Loans do not fulfil this function, since loans must be repaid from profit and credit institutions will be reluctant to extend loans if they fear their profits are endangered by the inability of creditors to generate enough income to meet interest payments. So the system depends on private companies and blind market forces. However, society can no longer rely on a system that is blindly guided by the profit motive and that is to a large degree responsible for much of the environmental problems that now afflict us. The system cannot continue in its present self-reinforcing growth mode. Governments can and must step in to fulfil their responsibility and fundamentally reform a system that has become harmful and that is driven exclusively by profit.

The profit motive leads to an unsustainable situation and government intervention.
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Prosperity Loop v1.0
11 months ago
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This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Chris Christi's economic policy based on the information at: https://d70h9a36p82zs.cloudfront.net/Ccpres2016/base/assets/1-0-1/production/Chris-Christie-TheEconomy.pdf   The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
DRAFT IPA of Chris Christi economic policy
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A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
ISD Savings Plan
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Based on the Market and Price simulation model in System Zoo 3.
I wrote an explanation of the model which you can find here: https://kdrive.infomaniak.com/app/share/1524656/f05f288f-6b27-4b32-87aa-46114dccc956
Z504 Market and Price - System Zoo 3
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