No economy can function well without adequate funding and in the absence of finance will eventually fall into recession. Funds (financial assets in the model) are primarily injected through investments. This is certainly true for investments and payments undertaken by the government but also for private investments via bank loans. Net exports (i.e.trade surpluses) also represent an injecton of financial assets into the economy. By contrast financial assets are taken out of the economy through taxation, the repayment of bank loans and the running of a negative trade balance. Also, if the population in aggregate decides to save more this has the effect as if money were taken out of the economy. I have deliberately avoided specifying where the funds for treasury payments and public investments come from, as this is controversial. Modern Monetary Theory, for instance, says that these funds are not provided through tax revenue. Austerity can be seen as a process that deliberately diminishes or takes out financial assets from the economy through taxation, restrictions on bank loans or cutbacks in payments and public spending by the government. It is probably useful to look at insights 2740 and 2741 before examining this CLD because they provide the context and purpose for net public spending and investment.

This Model was developed from the SEIR Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) and it predicts the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. This pandemic outbreak contributes to diverse rates including infection rate, death rates and recovery rate, government policies and its economic impacts.    

Assumptions:

 This model is driven by its determined rates, e.g., incubation rate, morality rate, test rate and immunity loss rate and its recovery rate.

Government policies are involved in fully vaccination rate, social distance, national border closure, travel, and business restriction which effect Burnie’s economy.

There are three economic entities dimensions in Burnie Island, we can tell that the pandemic has negative impact on Brick-and-Mortar enterprises and tourism business to some extent, whereas, e commercial business plays a crucial role to stimulate the regional economic activities during the COVID-19 period.

Interesting Insights:

 The figure of susceptible changes significantly during the initial 3 weeks because of low recovery rate and high infection rate. On the other hand, the implementation and interventions of government policies is effective, because the number of patients who tested negative is increased and the majority of them release and go back home after medical follow-up. 

References:

http://hcrs.co/wp-content/uploads/Hay%20Egg%20Loss%20Folder/
Dahlberg%201979%20A%20Review%20of%20Surviva
l%20Rates%20of.pdf

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-36716579

https://adventure.howstuffworks.com/outdoor-activities/fishing/fish-conservation/fish-populations/fishing-quota1.htm

https://healthresearchfunding.org/pros-cons-fish-farming/

http://www.academyforchange.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Fishery-Causal-Loop-Diagram-2011.9.pdf

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/Library/329545.pdf

http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-2/fisheries/illegal-fishing/

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/stats/commercial/cfs/2012/section4-eng.htm

http://fishcount.org.uk/fish-count-estimates

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/how-many-fish-are-there-in-the-ocean.html

http://www.umich.edu/~csfound/545/1998/narayans/chap07.htm

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09669580802276000

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/oceans/mpa-zpm/index-eng.html

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/selling-sea-how-our-fish-lost-their-freedom-market-forces

Nobody seems to notice bubbles until they burst. One possible reason is that those caught up in a bubble are completely blinded by the grip, the overpowering logic and force excerted by the positive feedback loop that drives it. Financial bubbles occur time and time again - and nobody seems to learn. Another example on a different time scale is an argument that spins out of control and ends in violence. The participants seem to be blind to the consequences; the immediate and imperative logic of the feedback loop imposes itself. The vortex created by the feedback loop even seems to draw in outsiders, such as new investors. Is this the reason why we don't notice bubbles? This explanation is meant to stimulate discussion!

The recent moratorium on deep-sea drilling will reduce the supply of oil. But the world-wide trend is an ever increasing demand for it. This simple CLD  tries to illustrate the dampening effect on demand and on economic activity of diminishing oil supplies and of rising prices: oil prices  affect virtually all products and especially agricultural production. As it becomes more and more difficult to extract oil, prices must rise. At the moment the global recession counteracts this effect, but the recession will not last forever. Is it too early to speak of Peak Oil?