A recent article by a former Australian cricketer got me thinking about how Agent Based Models could help understand how bowlers and batsmen behave in cricket....      http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2013/aug/20/ashes-glenn-mcgrath-england-australia       To try and keep things simple I've ass
A recent article by a former Australian cricketer got me thinking about how Agent Based Models could help understand how bowlers and batsmen behave in cricket.... 


To try and keep things simple I've assumed there are 4 bowlers and 4 batsmen.

There are 2 innings for each side in each game and 5 games in the series, therefore 10 innings for each bowler-batsman combination in the series.

In each innings I model, for each batsman, the following parameters:

- A baseline estimate for how likely each bowler is to get the batsman out in each innings (the baseline varies between batsmen, but is kept constant for each combination for each innings)
- Whether or not the bowler got the batsman out in this innings
- The number of times the bowler has got the batsman out in previous innings
 An implementation of the classic Game of Life using agent based modeling. Rules:   A live cell with less than two alive neighbors dies.  A live cell with more than three alive neighbors dies.  A dead cell with three neighbors becomes alive.

An implementation of the classic Game of Life using agent based modeling.

Rules:
  • A live cell with less than two alive neighbors dies.
  • A live cell with more than three alive neighbors dies.
  • A dead cell with three neighbors becomes alive.
 A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (healthy and temporarily immune).

A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (healthy and temporarily immune).

 A simple agent based foraging model. Consumer agents will move between fertile patches consuming them.

A simple agent based foraging model. Consumer agents will move between fertile patches consuming them.

 An implementation of the classic Game of Life using agent based modeling. Rules:   A live cell with less than two alive neighbors dies.  A live cell with more than three alive neighbors dies.  A dead cell with three neighbors becomes alive.

An implementation of the classic Game of Life using agent based modeling.

Rules:
  • A live cell with less than two alive neighbors dies.
  • A live cell with more than three alive neighbors dies.
  • A dead cell with three neighbors becomes alive.
A new archetype, The Tyranny of Small Steps (TYST) has been observed. Explained through a system dynamics perspective, the archetypical behaviour TYST is an unwanted change to a system through a series of small activities that may be independent from one another. These activities are small enough no
A new archetype, The Tyranny of Small Steps (TYST) has been observed. Explained through a system dynamics perspective, the archetypical behaviour TYST is an unwanted change to a system through a series of small activities that may be independent from one another. These activities are small enough not to be detected by the ‘surveillance’ within the system, but significant enough to encroach upon the “tolerance” zone of the system and compromise the integrity of the system. TYST is an unintentional process that is experienced within the system and made possible by the lack of transparency between an overarching level and a local level where the encroachment is taking place.

Reference:

Haraldsson, H. V., Sverdrup, H. U., Belyazid, S., Holmqvist, J. and Gramstad, R. C. J. (2008), The Tyranny of Small Steps: a reoccurring behaviour in management. Syst. Res., 25: 25–43. doi: 10.1002/sres.859 

 An implementation of the classic Game of Life using agent based modeling. Rules:   A live cell with less than two alive neighbors dies.  A live cell with more than three alive neighbors dies.  A dead cell with three neighbors becomes alive.

An implementation of the classic Game of Life using agent based modeling.

Rules:
  • A live cell with less than two alive neighbors dies.
  • A live cell with more than three alive neighbors dies.
  • A dead cell with three neighbors becomes alive.
 An implementation of the classic Game of Life using agent based modeling. Rules:   A live cell with less than two alive neighbors dies.  A live cell with more than three alive neighbors dies.  A dead cell with three neighbors becomes alive.

An implementation of the classic Game of Life using agent based modeling.

Rules:
  • A live cell with less than two alive neighbors dies.
  • A live cell with more than three alive neighbors dies.
  • A dead cell with three neighbors becomes alive.
 This model is a classic instance of an Erlang Queuing Process.     We have the entities:  - A population of cars which start off in a "cruising" state;  - At each cycle, according to a Poisson distribution defined by "Arrival Rate" (which can be a constant, a function of time, or a Converter to sim
This model is a classic instance of an Erlang Queuing Process.

We have the entities:
- A population of cars which start off in a "cruising" state;
- At each cycle, according to a Poisson distribution defined by "Arrival Rate" (which can be a constant, a function of time, or a Converter to simulate peak hours), some cars transition to a "looking" for an empty space state.
- If a empty space is available (Parking Capacity  > Count(FindState([cars population],[parked]))) then the State transitions to "Parked."
-The Cars stay "parked" according to a Normal distribution with Mean = Duration and SD = Duration / 4
- If the Car is in the state "Looking" for a period longer than "Willingness to Wait" then the state timeouts and transitions to impatient and immediately transitions to "Crusing" again.

The model is set to run for 24 hours and all times are given in hours (or fraction thereof)

WIP:
- Calculate the average waiting time;
- Calculate the servicing level, i.e., 1- (# of cars impatient)/(#cars looking)

A big THANK YOU to Scott Fortmann-Roe for helping setup the model's framework.
 A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (healthy and temporarily immune).

A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (healthy and temporarily immune).

 A simple agent based foraging model. Consumer agents will move between fertile patches consuming them.

A simple agent based foraging model. Consumer agents will move between fertile patches consuming them.

 A simple agent based foraging model. Consumer agents will move between fertile patches consuming them.

A simple agent based foraging model. Consumer agents will move between fertile patches consuming them.

A random walk demonstration using an ABM. As individuals drink more they become more intoxicated and their walk becomes more random. And when they drink to much it finally kills them.    If you find these contributions meaningful your  sponsorship  would be greatly appreciated.
A random walk demonstration using an ABM. As individuals drink more they become more intoxicated and their walk becomes more random. And when they drink to much it finally kills them.

If you find these contributions meaningful your sponsorship would be greatly appreciated.
Try with ABM, just for fun.
Try with ABM, just for fun.
Clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery. Includes Forrester quotes on statistical vs SD methods and the Modeller's dilemma. Simplified version of  IM-14982  combined with  IM-17598  and  IM-9773
Clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery. Includes Forrester quotes on statistical vs SD methods and the Modeller's dilemma. Simplified version of IM-14982 combined with IM-17598 and IM-9773
7 months ago
This is my first attempt at creating a simple Agent Based Simulation Model. Nothing fancy, just something that works.
This is my first attempt at creating a simple Agent Based Simulation Model. Nothing fancy, just something that works.