Population | Insight Maker

THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

THE MODEL IS ZONE SPECIFIC AS GLOBAL WEATHER IS NOT HOMOGENEOUS BUT A COLLECTION OF HEAT BUMBPS DEPENDENT ON POPULATION SIZE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND MASSED CONURBATIONS AND AGGLOMERATIONS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

44

Shows projection of birth and death rate over time.. This one is for Australia.

Australia Population Projection 2045

Kristen M Martin

Simulation of how tiger population and anti poaching efforts effect the black market value of tiger organs.

Clone of Tiger Population and Black Market Value

Mikayla Kelley

Influence of migration on the number of working-age population.

Radno sposobno stanovništvo

rustyzor

This is a basic population estimator. Default values approximate recent data for the United States, except for the birth rate.

Clone of Population Projection (USA)

Alain Plante

3

A detailed insight map into the current population trends surrounding koalas and the different variables involved which will influence these trends in years to come.

UBD101- Koala Population

Mitch Perry

Shows the ecological impact of population in Russia

Population Ecological Impact- Russia

Lizi Sheppard

This simulation examines carbon stocks and flows as a function of population.

India: Carbon and Population

Elise North-Kirkman

The Logistic Map is a polynomial mapping (equivalently, recurrence relation) of degree 2, often cited as an archetypal example of how complex, chaotic behaviour can arise from very simple non-linear dynamical equations. The map was popularized in a seminal 1976 paper by the biologist Robert May, in part as a discrete-time demographic model analogous to the logistic equation first created by Pierre François Verhulst.

Mathematically, the logistic map is written

where:

is a number between zero and one, and represents the ratio of existing population to the maximum possible population at year n, and hence x0 represents the initial ratio of population to max. population (at year 0)r is a positive number, and represents a combined rate for reproduction and starvation. To generate a bifurcation diagram, set 'r base' to 2 and 'r ramp' to 1
To demonstrate sensitivity to initial conditions, try two runs with 'r base' set to 3 and 'Initial X' of 0.5 and 0.501, then look at first ~20 time steps

Clone of The Logistic Map

Nicole M Radziwill

17

WIP Ideas for a hybrid budding SD plus ABM depression dynamics model

Hybrid Depression Dynamics Model

Geoff McDonnell

Evolution of the world population

sow

Murali Krishnan_ Employment and Unemployment rate

Murali Krishnan

Predator-prey models are the building masses of the bio-and environments as bio masses are become out of their asset masses. Species contend, advance and scatter essentially to look for assets to support their battle for their very presence. This model is designed to represent the moose and wolf population on Isle Royal. The variables include moose population, wolf population, moose birth rate, wolf birth rate, moose death proportionality constant, and wolf death proportionality constant. This model was adapted from https://insightmaker.com/insight/3A0dqQnXXh8zxWJtkwwAH9/Lotka-Volterra-Model-Prey-Predator-Simulation.

Looking at Lotka-Volterra Model:

The well known Italian mathematician Vito Volterra proposed a differential condition model to clarify the watched increment in predator fish in the Adriatic Sea during World War I. Simultaneously in the United States, the conditions contemplated by Volterra were determined freely by Alfred Lotka (1925) to portray a theoretical synthetic response wherein the concoction fixations waver. The Lotka-Volterra model is the least complex model of predator-prey communications. It depends on direct per capita development rates, which are composed as f=b−py and g=rx−d.

A detailed explanation of the parameters:

The parameter b is the development rate of species x (the prey) without communication with species y (the predators). Prey numbers are reduced by these collaborations: The per capita development rate diminishes (here directly) with expanding y, conceivably getting to be negative.
The parameter p estimates the effect of predation on x˙/x.
The parameter d is the death rate of species y without connection with species x.
The term rx means the net rate of development of the predator population in light of the size of the prey population.

Reference:

http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Predator-prey_model

https://insightmaker.com/insight/3A0dqQnXXh8zxWJtkwwAH9/Lotka-Volterra-Model-Prey-Predator-Simulation

Lotka-Volterra Model: Moose-Wolf Simulation

Emily Blackaby

Verkoppelung der drei Teilmodelle zu einem Gesamtmodell, der "Miniwelt" im Umfang von Bossel.

Eine Modifikation besteht darin, dass ein hohes Konsumniveau wieder zu einer Absenkung der Geburten führt.

Miniwelt nach Bossel, Reiche kriegen weniger Kinder

Thomas Neher

This model has two main components. First is modelling the change in population composition as non-First Nations immigration increases with the opening of new mines in the region. The second is modelling the increasing income disparity between First Nations and non-First Nations as mining jobs are disproportionately gained by non-First Nations workers.

Northern Ontario Demographic and Income Trend Model

Steve Williams

Simulation of how tiger population and anti poaching efforts effect the black market value of tiger organs.

Clone of Tiger Population and Black Market Value

Juan Antonio Jaramillo Zapata

Adapted from Hartmut Bossel's "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."

Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for the elderly, pensions dynamics, etc.

Clone of Z602 Population with four age groups

David Gilding

Een dynamisch model over een prooi predator relatie tussen verschillende populaties onder invloed van abiotische factoren.

Catastrophe, Abiotischefactoren Koein en Reuzenvogels en blumentjens Dio 5V prey predator

Dionijs Burmeister

Show relation of birth and death rate over time, creating the elements of the demographic transition. This one is for Indonesia. You can clone this insight for other nations, just plug in the new crude birth and death rates and find the starting population in 1960.

Demographic Transition-Indonesia

Gregory Fulkerson

Koala populations in South East Queensland have been plummeting for decades and is only speeding up. Here is a Systems Dynamics model of key factors that increase and decrease the Koala population in SEQ.

Throughout the model it is clear that if SEQ continues to grow with urbanisation and are not proactive with community awareness, Koala numbers will plummet.

David De Marco

David De Marco's Koala insight