Woodland caribou is a species at risk because of northward expansion of resource development activity.  Some herds are in dire condition and well below self-sustainability, while others are only moderately below self-sustaining levels.  Given limited conservation dollars, what are the most effective conservation actions, and how much money needs to be spent?  Which herds should be a priority for conservation efforts? The purpose of this model to provide insight into these difficult conservation questions.  

This model was developed by Rob Rempel and Jen Shuter, and was based in part on input from attendees of a modelling workshop ("Modelling the Caribou Questions") held at the 16th North American Caribou Workshop in Thunder Bay, Ontario, May 2016.

​Predator-prey models are the building masses of the bio-and environments as bio masses are become out of their asset masses. Species contend, advance and scatter essentially to look for assets to support their battle for their very presence. This model is designed to represent the moose and wolf population on Isle Royal. The variables include moose population, wolf population, moose birth rate, wolf birth rate, moose death proportionality constant, and wolf death proportionality constant. This model was adapted from https://insightmaker.com/insight/3A0dqQnXXh8zxWJtkwwAH9/Lotka-Volterra-Model-Prey-Predator-Simulation.

 Looking at Lotka-Volterra Model:

The well known Italian mathematician Vito Volterra proposed a differential condition model to clarify the watched increment in predator fish in the Adriatic Sea during World War I. Simultaneously in the United States, the conditions contemplated by Volterra were determined freely by Alfred Lotka (1925) to portray a theoretical synthetic response wherein the concoction fixations waver. The Lotka-Volterra model is the least complex model of predator-prey communications. It depends on direct per capita development rates, which are composed as f=b−py and g=rx−d. 

A detailed explanation of the parameters:

• The parameter b is the development rate of species x (the prey) without communication with species y (the predators). Prey numbers are reduced by these collaborations: The per capita development rate diminishes (here directly) with expanding y, conceivably getting to be negative. 
• The parameter p estimates the effect of predation on x˙/x. 
• The parameter d is the death rate of species y without connection with species x. 
• The term rx means the net rate of development of the predator population in light of the size of the prey population.

Reference:

http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Predator-prey_model

https://insightmaker.com/insight/3A0dqQnXXh8zxWJtkwwAH9/Lotka-Volterra-Model-Prey-Predator-Simulation

- Police funding

- Community Development

- Youth Alienation

And the impact they have on youth engagement levels over time in the NSW town of Bourke. 

Assumptions

The model assumes the youth population of bourke to be 1000 people. 

Constants

-Community Group effect is delayed by 3 months, aligning the model to seasonality to account for the large impact seasonal sport has on rural community.

- 20% of youth will disengage with the community after realising the development funding doesn't align to their interests. 

- 80% of disengaged youth will be at risk of committing a crime.

- 19% of youth arrested will have their charges dropped

- 81% will have a conviction recorded 

- 21% of detained youth will be rehabilitated in line with the NSW average.

- 79% of detained youth will re-offend in line with the NSW average. 

Variables

- Police Force Funding can be adjusted upward or downward to simulate the effect on engagement, disengagement and crime levels. 

- Community Development Funding can be adjusted to simulate the positive effect developing programs and opportunity for youth in Bourke may have on their engagement in society and the overall crime rate amongst their cohort. 

- Youth Alienation slider allows the rate of youth alienation (Exposure to violence, drugs, alcohol. Lack of training, education and opportunity), to be slowed and speed up to simulate the impact it has on engagement and crime levels. 

Woodland caribou is a species at risk because of northward expansion of resource development activity.  Some herds are in dire condition and well below self-sustainability, while others are only moderately below self-sustaining levels.  Given limited conservation dollars, what are the most effective conservation actions, and how much money needs to be spent?  Which herds should be a priority for conservation efforts? The purpose of this model to provide insight into these difficult conservation questions.  

This model was developed by Rob Rempel and Jen Shuter at the Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research, and was based in part on input from attendees of a modelling workshop ("Modelling the Caribou Questions") held at the 16th North American Caribou Workshop in Thunder Bay, Ontario, May 2016.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Acest model este adaptat după reprezentarea lui Harmut Bossel, în lucrarea  "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."

Utilizarea modelului ne poate ajuta pentru a vizualiza evolutia populatiei pe grupe de varsta sau pentru a gestiona probleme cum ar fi ocuparea forței de muncă.