Details:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-          <!--[endif]-->This model shows the effect of ‘reinvestment program ‘or the expenditure on policing and community development affects the cycles of petty-crime and youth detention, and domestic violence and jail.

More details:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-          <!--[endif]--> Bourke is a town of 3000 people in the North West of New South Wales, about 750Km from Sydney. See the map: https://goo.gl/maps/VgNqgMNzJ7H2. It’s nowhere and there’s not much to do there if you’re young. So, a lot of kids get into mischief, and a lot of adult’s drink. Sometimes they’re violent.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-          <!--[endif]-->http://www.justreinvest.org.au/justice-reinvestment-in-bourke/

Assumption:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Bourke Funding consist of Law enforcement funding and Community Development funding only

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->Bourke budget only has $400,000

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Juvenile detention stay last for 6 months

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->There is only 2 options as a Youth, commit petty crime or engage in Youth development programs

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->1 unit of Police, Juvenile and Educational program HR and Equipment is = 0.25

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->1 unit increase results in an 0.25 effectiveness increase

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Sport clubs, educational programs and social programs are comprised into Youth Development Program as 1 stock.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Juvenile support relies on encouraging youth who are in detention centers to join youth development programs, if not they will reoffend.

Stocks:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->Home

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->Youth Development program

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->Discharged

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->Juvenile detention center

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->Petty Crime

Variable:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Reinvestment Allocation – ranges from 0 – 1 , law enforcement investment allocation is 1 – reinvestment allocation. Slide the slider through 0 to 1 to change the reinvestment allocation by 10% l

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Bourke funding budget is fixed to make it seem more realistic (imagine employing a whole army of teachers or police, it wouldn’t make sense)

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Youth Population varies , from 1000 to 10,000 for realism along with its time period (4 years). Slider the the slider to increase or decrease the population by 1,000s

Juvenile support effectiveness rate, Youth development program effectiveness rate, conviction rate, Police HR/ equipment, Juvenile Support HR/ equipment, Youth Development program HR/ equipment

Interrelationship and reinforcing loops

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->The youth population starts as as Neutral (Home) then leans towards alienation and connectedness

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Alienation Reinforcing Loop -  Alienation has Conviction rate as a factor as conviction rate increase Alienation increase. This is because as youths get arrested, meaning they’ll have to stay in Detention centers, their friends are more likely to follow on due to them getting ‘bored’.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Connectedness Reinforcing Loop - The opposite exist with Connectedness, as educational program effectiveness increase so as Connectedness. This follows onto the same assumption that youth will always follow peer pressure. The more friends they have in the program, the more likely they will join aswell.

Analysis:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->1.       <!--[endif]-->Which loop is the youth in?

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Once the allocation slider is used with its minimum or maximum value, the loop at which majority of the youth population is ‘stuck in’ becomes obvious. E.g. Once allocation = 1, the entire youth is stuck between educational program and their home, showing the effectiveness of community development funding. On the other hand, once allocation = 0, the entire youth loops around from doing Petty Crimes, spending their time in Juvenile detention centers, then getting discharged to only commit petty crimes again.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->2.       <!--[endif]-->Alienation vs. Connectedness

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Set the allocation slider on 0.8, The massive difference between the youth of population feeling connected with their community and youth being alienated can be seen. The increase in Reinvestment, the increase in connectedness. Try the extremes as well, 100% reinvestment funding results in 0 Alienation rate.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->3.       <!--[endif]--> What is the Youth Engaged in ? Educational Programs or Petty Crime ?

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Leaving the slider on 0.8, it can be seen that the there are more youth engaged into educational programs than petty crime. This shows that reinvestment and petty crime has a negative relationship .

<!--[if !supportLists]-->4.       <!--[endif]-->More police = safer ?

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-          <!--[endif]-->Set the slider on 0.1 , it can be seen that Conviction which has police as a factor is positively correlated to Crime. This means that an increase in conviction rate is equivalent to more youth being alienated and committing crime. Therefore, more police less safer.

 Have fun! 

We start with an SEIR social virality model and adapt it to model social media adoption of Playcast Hosts.  *Note that this model does not attempt to model WOM emergent virality.  

IM-1175 with computable arguments, based on ideas from Micropublications paper about Claims, Evidence, Representations and Context Networks