WIP of Rammelt's 2019 System Dynamics Review Article which has STELLA and Minsky software versions as supplements. Compare with the older IM-2011 version

• This model examines how sustainable consumerism is from social, economic, and environmental aspects. The question in focus is "How will our second-hand clothing donations affect communities in developing countries, specifically Kenya?"

• This model examines how sustainable consumerism is from social, economic, and environmental aspects.  

WIP Cloned insight (Fig 3.1 from Jorgen Randers book 2052 a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years) with Fidel Kaboub MMT Prespective CLD kumu added ALso AI based work at Gene's brain link  and Colonial origins (Why Nations Fail Critique paper (also via brain link) Continued top down integration at insight

Based on System Zoo EZ412D, EZ411, EZ412A.

Taken from Saeed, Khalid. ‘Limits to Growth Concepts in Classical Economics’. In Feedback Economics: Economic Modeling with System Dynamics, edited by Robert Y. Cavana, Brian C. Dangerfield, Oleg V. Pavlov, Michael J. Radzicki, and I. David Wheat, 217–46. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67190-7_9.

Model description:

This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania. It also tell us the impact of economic policies on outbreak models and economic growth.

 

Variables:

The simulation takes into account the following variables and its adjusting range: 

 

On the left of the model, the variables are: infection rate( from 0 to 0.25), recovery rate( from 0 to 1), death rate( from 0 to 1), immunity loss rate( from 0 to 1), test rate ( from 0 to 1), which are related to Covid-19.

 

In the middle of the model, the variables are: social distancing( from 0 to 0.018), lock down( from 0 to 0.015), quarantine( from 0 to 0.015), vaccination promotion( from 0 to 0.019), border restriction( from 0 to 0.03), which are related to governmental policies.

 

On the right of the model, the variables are: economic growth rate( from 0 to 0.3), which are related to economic growth.

 

Assumptions:

(1) The model is influenced by various variables and can produce different results. The following values based on the estimation, which differ from actual values in reality.

 

(2) Here are just five government policies that have had an impact on infection rates in epidemic models. On the other hand, these policies will also have an impact on economic growth, which may be positive or negative.

 

(3) Governmental policy will only be applied when reported cases are 10 or more. 

 

(4) This model lists two typical economic activities, namely e-commerce and physical stores. Government policies affect these two types of economic activity separately. They together with economic growth rate have an impact on economic growth.

 

Enlightening insights:

(1) In the first two weeks, the number of susceptible people will be significantly reduced due to the high infection rate, and low recovery rate as well as government policies. The number of susceptible people fall slightly two weeks later. Almost all declines have a fluctuating downward trend.

 

(2) Government policies have clearly controlled the number of deaths, suspected cases and COVID-19 cases.

 

(3) The government's restrictive policies had a negative impact on economic growth, but e-commerce economy, physical stores and economic growth rate all played a positive role in economic growth, which enabled the economy to stay in a relatively stable state during the epidemic.

Cutbacks can have a counterintuitive effect. The government knows precisely how much it custs in spending. However, it cannot know the extent to which tax revenues shrink in a non-linear complex economic system as the economy contracts. In addition, the treasury has to spend more as automatic stabilizers activate and payments are made to an increasing number of unemployed workers. The effect of this is that initially the deficit shrinks, but later it rises as tax revenues fall short of expectations and more spending takes place. The ironic part is that often the very indicator that promted austerity measurs, the defcit to GDP ratio, becomes worse than it was at the outset. We could observe this in Spain and Portugal where planned deficits have been repeatedly missed, as austerity measures  (fiscal cutbacks) were introduced to deal with the effects of  the 2008 financial crisis.

No economy can function well without adequate funding and in the absence of finance will eventually fall into recession. Funds (financial assets in the model) are primarily injected through investments. This is certainly true for investments and payments undertaken by the government but also for private investments via bank loans. Net exports (i.e.trade surpluses) also represent an injecton of financial assets into the economy. By contrast financial assets are taken out of the economy through taxation, the repayment of bank loans and the running of a negative trade balance. Also, if the population in aggregate decides to save more this has the effect as if money were taken out of the economy. I have deliberately avoided specifying where the funds for treasury payments and public investments come from, as this is controversial. Modern Monetary Theory, for instance, says that these funds are not provided through tax revenue. Austerity can be seen as a process that deliberately diminishes or takes out financial assets from the economy through taxation, restrictions on bank loans or cutbacks in payments and public spending by the government. It is probably useful to look at insights 2740 and 2741 before examining this CLD because they provide the context and purpose for net public spending and investment.

First pass at model depicting importance of Net Capital Accumulation on economic growth of firm - from firm's perspective

Summary of Ch1 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for overview

Summary of UNEP ecosystems services CBA 2011 article by Wegner and Pascual

​Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Introduction:

This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse the fractional rate of saving.)

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the long-run.

Peak oil occurs not when there are no more reserves, but when it is too expensive to bring them to the surface. The diagram describes a dynamic where peak oil leads to oil prices that are too low for oil companies to produce oil. There are two keys to understand this counterintuitive situation. First, it is important to realize that without energy (oil) no economic activity can take place. Second, when supplies of oil become scarce, non-elite workers  - because of the contraction of the economy - will lose their jobs or suffer salary cuts. This will make goods containing (or using) oil products too expensive for the masses. Demand for those products (most things on the market) will decline and with it demand for oil - oil prices will drop too low for oil companies to produce oil!

These ideas stem from Gail Tverberg's blog: 'Our Finite World'. https://ourfiniteworld.com/

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

See the dynamics of how some viscous cycles can hurt food security, but hopefully, after overall economic indicators show a problem, the market and government can take corrective action to turn those viscous cycles into virtuous cycles!

WIP SD REpresentation of Steve Keen's BOMD Minsky model (described in Fig.5 of his patreon Jan2021 Draft New Economics Manifesto) to hope to make the causal structure clearer