Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that an already very weak and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with
extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the
industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American
economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a
second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global
Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but
emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the
atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight
back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these
aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as
much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period
time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the
furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting
dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture. As events unfold in the next few months, we may discover that it is too late to act, that our reign on this planet has, indeed, come to an abrupt end?
Clone of Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences
Modelo epidemiológico simples
SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados
Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo. É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.
Dados iniciais de infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.
Clone of Modelo SIR simples - Covid 19
Economic
collapse, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that an already very weak and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with
extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the
industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American
economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a
second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global
Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but
emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the
atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight
back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these
aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as
much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period
time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the
furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting
dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture. As events unfold in the next few months, we may discover that it is too late to act, that our reign on this planet has, indeed, come to an abrupt end?
Clone of Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences
Ausbreitung von SARS-CoV-19 in verschiedenen Ländern
- bitte passen Sie die Variablen über die Schieberegler weiter unten entsprechend an
Italien
ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,228
Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 4-11
Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 60 000 000
hoher Blutdruck: 0,32 (gbe-bund)
Herzkrankheit: 0,04 (statista)
kostenlose Intensivstationen: 3 100
Deutschland
ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,195 (bpb)
geschätzte unentdeckte Fälle Faktor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 83 000 000
hoher Blutdruck: 0,26 (gbe-bund)
Herzkrankheit: 0,2-0,28 (Herzstiftung)
kostenlose Intensivstationen: 5 880
Frankreich
ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,183 (statista)
Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 3-5
Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 67 000 000
Bluthochdruck: 0,3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
Herzkrankheit: 0,1-0,2 (oecd)
kostenlose Intensivstationen: 3 000
Je nach Bedarf:
Anzahl der Begegnungen/Tag: 1 = Quarantäne, 2-3 = soziale Distanzierung , 4-6 = erschwertes soziales Leben, 7-9 = überhaupt keine Einschränkungen // Vorgabe 2
Praktizierte Präventivmassnahmen (d.h. sich regelmässig die Hände waschen, das Gesicht nicht berühren usw.): 0.1 (niemand tut etwas) - 1 (sehr gründlich) // Vorgabe 0.8
Aufklärung durch die Regierung: 0,1 (sehr schlecht) - 1 (sehr transparent und aufklärend) // Vorgabe 0,9
Immunitätsrate (aufgrund fehlender Daten): 0 (man kann nicht immun werden) - 1 (wenn man es einmal hatte, wird man es nie wieder bekommen) // Vorgabe 0,4
Schlüssel
Anfällige: Menschen sind nicht mit SARS-CoV-19 infiziert, könnten aber infiziert werden
Infizierte: Menschen sind infiziert worden und haben die Krankheit COVID-19
Geheilte: Die Menschen haben sich gerade von COVID-19 erholt und können es in diesem Stadium nicht mehr bekommen
Tote: Menschen starben wegen COVID-19
Immunisierte: Menschen wurden immun und können die Krankheit nicht mehr bekommen
Kritischer Prozentsatz der Wiederherstellung: Überlebenschance ohne spezielle medizinische Behandlung
Clone of SARS-CoV-19 Modell von Lucia Vega Resto
Evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil:
A System Dynamics Approach
Villela, Paulo (2020)
paulo.villela@engenharia.ufjf.br
This model is based on Crokidakis, Nuno. (2020). Data analysis and modeling of the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. For more details see full paper here.
Evolução da Covid-19 no Brasil
SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries
- please
adjust variables accordingly
Italy
- elderly population (>65): 0.228
- estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11
- starting population size: 60 000 000
- high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)
- heart disease: 0.04 (statista)
- free intensive care units: 3 100
Germany
- elderly population (>65): 0.195 (bpb)
- estimated undetected cases factor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
- starting population size: 83 000 000
- high blood pressure: 0.26 (gbe-bund)
- heart disease: 0.2-0.28 (herzstiftung)
- free intensive care units: 5 880
France
- elderly population (>65): 0.183 (statista)
- estimated undetected cases factor: 3-5
- starting population size: 67 000 000
- high blood pressure: 0.3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
- heart disease: 0.1-0.2 (oecd)
- free intensive care units: 3 000
As you wish
- numbers of encounters/day: 1 = quarantine, 2-3 = practicing social distancing, 4-6 = heavy social life, 7-9 = not caring at all // default 2
- practicing preventive measures (ie. washing hands regularly, not touching your face etc.): 0.1 (nobody does anything) - 1 (very strictly) // default 0.8
- government elucidation: 0.1 (very bad) - 1 (highly transparent and educating) // default 0.9
- Immunity rate (due to lacking data): 0 (you can't get immune) - 1 (once you had it you'll never get it again) // default 0.4
Key
- Healthy: People are not infected with SARS-CoV-19 but could still get it
- Infected: People have been infected and developed the disease COVID-19
- Recovered: People just have recovered from COVID-19 and can't get it again in this stage
- Dead: People died because of COVID-19
- Immune: People got immune and can't get the disease again
- Critical recovery percentage: Chance of survival with no special medical treatment
Clone of SARS-CoV-19 model
Modelo epidemiológico simples
SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados
Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo. É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.
Dados diários sobre infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.
Dados diários para o município de Juiz de Fora podem ser obtidos no site da Prefeitura.
Juiz de Fora - Covid-19
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.
It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.
Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.
On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.
Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreaks and economic impacts_Pui Chu Daisy Cheung 524767
The System Dynamic Model represents the Covid19 cases in Brgy. Sicsican, Puerto Princesa City as of May 27,2022.
Total population of Brgy. Sicsican - 22625
Total Covid19 cases as of May 27, 2022 - 250
Local transmission - 241
Imported transmission - 9
Recovery - 226
Death Due to Covid19 - 15
Ph_Covid19SDM_EvelynBacalla
Clone of SARS-CoV-19 model
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Clone of Infectious Disease Model (Version 4.0)
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Clone of Infectious Disease Model (Version 3.0)
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
nfectious Disease Model 5yr (Version2.0)
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that an already very weak and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with
extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the
industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American
economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a
second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global
Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but
emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the
atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight
back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these
aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as
much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period
time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the
furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting
dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture. As events unfold in the next few months, we may discover that it is too late to act, that our reign on this planet has, indeed, come to an abrupt end?
Clone of Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences
The SEIRS(D) model for the purpose of experimenting with the phenomena of viral spread. I use it for COVID-19 simulation.
Clone of SEIRS MODEL
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.
It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.
Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.
On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.
Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreaks and economic impacts_Pui Chu Daisy Cheung 524767
SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries
- please
adjust variables accordingly
Italy
- elderly population (>65): 0.228
- estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11
- starting population size: 60 000 000
- high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)
- heart disease: 0.04 (statista)
- free intensive care units: 3 100
Germany
- elderly population (>65): 0.195 (bpb)
- estimated undetected cases factor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
- starting population size: 83 000 000
- high blood pressure: 0.26 (gbe-bund)
- heart disease: 0.2-0.28 (herzstiftung)
- free intensive care units: 5 880
France
- elderly population (>65): 0.183 (statista)
- estimated undetected cases factor: 3-5
- starting population size: 67 000 000
- high blood pressure: 0.3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
- heart disease: 0.1-0.2 (oecd)
- free intensive care units: 3 000
As you wish
- numbers of encounters/day: 1 = quarantine, 2-3 = practicing social distancing, 4-6 = heavy social life, 7-9 = not caring at all // default 2
- practicing preventive measures (ie. washing hands regularly, not touching your face etc.): 0.1 (nobody does anything) - 1 (very strictly) // default 0.8
- government elucidation: 0.1 (very bad) - 1 (highly transparent and educating) // default 0.9
- Immunity rate (due to lacking data): 0 (you can't get immune) - 1 (once you had it you'll never get it again) // default 0.4
Key
- Healthy: People are not infected with SARS-CoV-19 but could still get it
- Infected: People have been infected and developed the disease COVID-19
- Recovered: People just have recovered from COVID-19 and can't get it again in this stage
- Dead: People died because of COVID-19
- Immune: People got immune and can't get the disease again
- Critical recovery percentage: Chance of survival with no special medical treatment
Clone of SARS-CoV-19 model
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Clone of Infectious Disease Model (Version 3.0)
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that an already very weak and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with
extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the
industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American
economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a
second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global
Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but
emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the
atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight
back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these
aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as
much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period
time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the
furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting
dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture. As events unfold in the next few months, we may discover that it is too late to act, that our reign on this planet has, indeed, come to an abrupt end?
Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Clone of Infectious Disease Model (Version 3.0)
Tugas Permodelan Transportasi Laut
Clone of Clone of Tugas Permo_Corona
Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus
Modelo SEIR para COVID-19
