COVID-19 SEIR Model for Indonesia
SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries
- please
adjust variables accordingly
Italy
- elderly population (>65): 0.228
- estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11
- starting population size: 60 000 000
- high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)
- heart disease: 0.04 (statista)
- free intensive care units: 3 100
Germany
- elderly population (>65): 0.195 (bpb)
- estimated undetected cases factor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
- starting population size: 83 000 000
- high blood pressure: 0.26 (gbe-bund)
- heart disease: 0.2-0.28 (herzstiftung)
- free intensive care units: 5 880
France
- elderly population (>65): 0.183 (statista)
- estimated undetected cases factor: 3-5
- starting population size: 67 000 000
- high blood pressure: 0.3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
- heart disease: 0.1-0.2 (oecd)
- free intensive care units: 3 000
As you wish
- numbers of encounters/day: 1 = quarantine, 2-3 = practicing social distancing, 4-6 = heavy social life, 7-9 = not caring at all // default 2
- practicing preventive measures (ie. washing hands regularly, not touching your face etc.): 0.1 (nobody does anything) - 1 (very strictly) // default 0.8
- government elucidation: 0.1 (very bad) - 1 (highly transparent and educating) // default 0.9
- Immunity rate (due to lacking data): 0 (you can't get immune) - 1 (once you had it you'll never get it again) // default 0.4
Key
- Healthy: People are not infected with SARS-CoV-19 but could still get it
- Infected: People have been infected and developed the disease COVID-19
- Recovered: People just have recovered from COVID-19 and can't get it again in this stage
- Dead: People died because of COVID-19
- Immune: People got immune and can't get the disease again
- Critical recovery percentage: Chance of survival with no special medical treatment
Clone of SARS-CoV-19 model
Modelling of the SARS-Cov-2 viral outbreak using an SEIR model plus specific extensions to model demand for health and care resources.
The model includes biths and deaths, and migration to accommodate import and export of infected individuals from other areas.
Healthcare resources identifies need for hospital beds and critical care.
The model is uses arrays to reflect the different impacts of modelled parameters by age and sex.
Clone of Infectious Disease Model (Covid)
This model is to explain the COVID-19 outbreak in Brunie Island, Tasmania, Australia, and the relationship between it and the government policies , also with the local economy.
This model is upgraded on the basis of the SIR model and adds more variables.
A large number of COVID-19 cases will have a negative impact on the local economy. But if the number of cases is too small, it will have no impact on the macro economy
Government policy will help control the growth of COVID-19 cases by getting people tested.
BMA708 Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie island. Ming Liu 501335
Evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil:
A System Dynamics Approach
Villela, Paulo (2020)
paulo.villela@engenharia.ufjf.br
This model is based on Crokidakis, Nuno. (2020). Data analysis and modeling of the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. For more details see full paper here.
Evolução da Covid-19 no Brasil
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Clone of Infectious Disease Model (Version 3.0)
Modelo epidemiológico simples
SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados
Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo. É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.
Dados iniciais de infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.
Clone of Modelo SIR simples - Covid 19
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that an already very weak and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with
extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the
industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American
economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a
second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global
Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but
emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the
atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight
back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these
aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as
much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period
time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the
furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting
dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture. As events unfold in the next few months, we may discover that it is too late to act, that our reign on this planet has, indeed, come to an abrupt end?
Clone of Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2
The SEIRS(D) model for the purpose of experimenting with the phenomena of viral spread. I use it for COVID-19 simulation.
Clone of SEIR - COVID-19 (v.1)
Description:
This is a system dynamics model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie which shows the process of infections and how government responses, impact on the local economy.
First part is outbreak model, we can know that when people is infected, there are two situations. One is that he recovers from treatment, but even if he recovered, the immunity loss rate increase, makes him to become infected again. The other situation is death. In this outbreak, the government's health policies (ban on non-essential trips, closure of non-essential retailers, limits on public gatherings and quarantine ) help to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 new cases. Moreover, government legislation is dependent on number of COVID-19 cases and testing rates.
Second part: the model of Govt legislation and economic impact. Gov policy can help to reduce infection rate and local economy at same way. The increase of number of COVID-19 cases has a negative impact on local Tourism industry and economic growth rate. On the other hand, Govt legislation also can be change when reported COVID-19 case are less or equal to 10.
Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie(Yafei Shi 489576)
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that an already very weak and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with
extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the
industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American
economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a
second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global
Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but
emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the
atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight
back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these
aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as
much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period
time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the
furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting
dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture. As events unfold in the next few months, we may discover that it is too late to act, that our reign on this planet has, indeed, come to an abrupt end?
Clone of Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences
Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus
Modelo SEIR para COVID-19
Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus
Clone of Clone of Clone of Clone of Clone of Clone of Clone of Clone of Clone of SEIR Infectious Disease Model for COVID-19
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2
Самостаятельная работа часть 1 Акилбеков Асет
Украина короновирус, 2021 жыл
Modelo epidemiológico simples
SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados
Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo. É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.
Dados iniciais de infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.
Clone of Modelo SIR simples - Covid 19
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Clone of Infectious Disease Model (Version 3.0)
The System Dynamics Model presents the the COVID-19 status in Puerto Princesa City
Clone of Clone of Ph_Covid19SDM_AngelKateCacayan
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Clone of Clone of Infectious Disease Model (Version 4.0)
This model can be used to investigate how government interventions affect transmission and mortality associated with COVID-19 during an outbreak, and how these interventions impact on the economic activities in Burnie, Tasmania.
Assumptions can be made that effective government intervention can reduce the number of people infected, whereas the local economy is severely impacted.
Insights:
1. When COVID-19 case are more than 10, government policy will be triggered.
2. Testing rate is very crucial to understanding the spread of the pandemic and responding appropriately.
BMA708_Marketing insights_Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania_Jing XU
