HANDY Model of Societal Collapse from Ecological Economics Paper 

This story presents a conceptual model of nitrogen cycling in a dune-lake system in the Northland region of New Zealand. It is based on the concept of a stock and flow diagram. Each orange ellipse represents an input, while each blue box represents a stock. Each arrow represents a flow. A flow involves a loss from the stock at which it starts and an addition to the stock at which it ends.

In Chile, 60% of its population are exposed to levels of Particulate Matter (PM) above international standards. Air Pollution is causing 4,000 premature deaths per year, including health costs over US$8 billion.

This diagram provides an accessible description of the key processes that influence the water quality within a lake.

Simple mass balance model for lakes, based on the Vollenweider equation:

dMw/dt = Min - sMw - Mout

The model was first used in the 1960s to determine the phosphorus concentration in lakes and reservoirs, for eutrophication assessment.

Economic growth cannot go on forever, although politicians and most economist seem to think so. The activity involved in economic growth necessarily  generates entropy (disorder and environmental degradation). Entorpy in turn generates powerful negative feedback loops which will, as a response from nature, ensure that economic activity will eventually grind to a complete halt.  In these circumstances organised society cannot persist and will collapse. The negative feedback loops shown in this graph have already started to operate. The longer economic growth continues unabated, the more powerful these negative feedback loops will become. How long can economic growth continue before it is overwhelmed? It may not be very far in the future.

Simple model to illustrate oyster growth based on primary production of Phytoplankton as a state variable, forced by light and nutrients, running for a yearly period.

Phytoplankton growth based on on Steele's and Michaelis-Menten equations), where: 

Primary Production=(([Pmax]*[I]/[Iopt]*exp(1-[I]/[Iopt])*[S])/([Ks]+[S]))

Pmax: Maximum production (d-1)
I: Light energy at depth of interest (uE m-2 s-1)
Iopt: Light energy at which Pmax occurs (uE m-2 s-1)
S: Nutrient concentration (umol N L-1)
Ks: Half saturation constant for nutrient (umol N L-1).

Further developments:
- Nutrients as state variable in cycle with detritus from phytoplankton and oyster biomass.
- Light limited by the concentration of phytoplankton.
- Temperature effect on phytoplankton and Oyster growth.

Simple model to illustrate Steele's equation for primary production of phytoplankton.

The equation is:

Ppot = Pmax I/Iopt exp(1-I/Iopt)

Where:

Ppot: Potential production (e.g. d-1, or mg C m-2 d-1)
Pmax: Maximum production (same units as Ppot)
I: Light energy at depth of interest (e.g. uE m-2 s-1)
Iopt: Light energy at which Pmax occurs (same units as I)

The model contains no state variables, just illustrates the rate of production, by making the value of I equal to the timestep (in days). Move the slider to the left for more pronounced photoinhibition, to the right for photosaturation.

This story contains a conceptual model of phosphorus cycling in a dune-lake system in the Northland region of New Zealand. It is based on the concept of a stock and flow diagram. Each orange ellipse represents an input, while each blue box represents a stock. Each arrow represents a flow. A flow involves a loss from the stock at which it starts and an addition to the stock at which it ends.

Primitives for Watershed modeling project. Click Clone Insight at the top right to make a copy that you can edit.

The converter in this file contains precipitation for Phoenix only.

UDB 100 Assignment 1D


This simulation shows the drastic decline in the SEQ koala population due to various issues including human urban development, environmental issues, disease, habitat loss and domestic animals.

In Chile, 60% of its population are exposed to levels of Particulate Matter (PM) above international standards. Air Pollution is causing 4,000 premature deaths per year, including health costs over US$8 billion.

In Chile, 60% of its population are exposed to levels of Particulate Matter (PM) above international standards. Air Pollution is causing 4,000 premature deaths per year, including health costs over US$8 billion.

WIP Stock Flow representation of Panarchy Adaptive Cycles

The time-variable solution to a step-function change in inflow concentration for an ideal, completely mixed lake.

Primitives for Watershed modeling project. Click Clone Insight at the top right to make a copy that you can edit.

The converter in this file contains precipitation for Tucson only. Tucson watersheds are Arroyo Chico, Canada Agua, and Lower Canada del Oro.

Food Web

In Chile, 60% of its population are exposed to levels of Particulate Matter (PM) above international standards. Air Pollution is causing 4,000 premature deaths per year, including health costs over US$8 billion.

Simple model to illustrate oyster growth based on primary production of Phytoplankton as a state variable, forced by light and nutrients, running for a yearly period.

Phytoplankton growth based on on Steele's and Michaelis-Menten equations), where: 

Primary Production=(([Pmax]*[I]/[Iopt]*exp(1-[I]/[Iopt])*[S])/([Ks]+[S]))

Pmax: Maximum production (d-1)
I: Light energy at depth of interest (uE m-2 s-1)
Iopt: Light energy at which Pmax occurs (uE m-2 s-1)
S: Nutrient concentration (umol N L-1)
Ks: Half saturation constant for nutrient (umol N L-1).

Further developments:
- Nutrients as state variable in cycle with detritus from phytoplankton and oyster biomass.
- Light limited by the concentration of phytoplankton.
- Temperature effect on phytoplankton and Oyster growth.

Forcings and feedbacks based on Tom Fiddaman, James Hansen and other feedback and cycle diagrams