MKT563 Models
These models and simulations have been tagged “MKT563”.
Clone of Inventory/Production Model
MKT563: Assessment Item 4
Student Name: Christopher Brockman
Student ID: 1153 2934B
Insight Maker was used to model the impact of police enforcement and community development (TAFE, local gym and local soccer club) would have on illegal activities and crime rates of the adolescents in the town of Bourke.
By examining relationships between various variables (eg local gym membership vs alienated adolescents), we can identify if an inverse relationship occurs between crime rates and community development in the town of Bourke.
About the model
As Bourke is a quiet country town, there is a tendency for a proportion of adolescents to become easily bored and alienated throughout their development. This model seeks to determine if there is any tangible benefits of establishing more community structures in an attempt to stimulate the adolescents to make positive changes in their lives (gym, education, sports).
It is assumed if the adolescents of Bourke are undertake a TAFE course, participating in a team or working on their fitness, less crime that will be committed in Bourke. There is a 18 month average in TAFE education (represented as a 10 month delay), to show that it will take time for the benefits of further community development to be reaped.
Variables/relationships
The variables are shown in boxes, and relationships are shown as arrows. Variables consist of:
- Police Enforcement: As further police presence is established, it is expected that more crimes will be solved and will also act as a deterrent to not commit crime for the average adolescent.
- Community Development: It is expected that there will be an inverse relationship between crime and community development.
Interesting parameters
As the user increases the values in the sliders, we see a trend of youth committing less crime (which also means less in juvenile detention).
Conclusion
From the model, we can gather that community development is/would be highly effective in reducing crime rates by adolescents in Bourke. Further investigation is strongly recommended.
Bourke - Relationship Among Different Players
Model Explanation
This complex system model visualizes relationships between the investment on police and community and the change of youth crime rate in Bourke, NSW.
Assumptions
Total number of youth population (aged 13 – 19 years old) in Bourke: 1,000
80% of Bourke youth population are assumed to behave negatively.
50% of alienated teenagers are assumed to breach of law or rules.
70% of alienated youth who breach of law or rules will be arrested by police.
60% of teenagers arrested are assumed to be convicted and detained.
40% of teenagers arrested are assumed not to be convicted and detained.
70% of teenagers detained are assumed to participate in juvenile community programs after being released.
70% of teenagers participated in community programs will rehabilitate.
Variables
Drugs & Alcohol, Domestic violence, Long-term unemployment
Police expenses
Community funding
Conclusion
It can be seen that the number of alienated youth and the crime rate will decline over time when investing more on police and juvenile community programs.
MKT563 Assessment 4 - Simulation of Bourke youth alienation problem - 11641572 SHAN CHEN
Assessment 4, MKT563 201930
Danielle Skerrett
Student ID: 11664109
Charles Sturt University
About this Model:
This balancing structure loop model visualises the various factors that can affect
the youth of Bourke, NSW. High crime rates have severely affected this LGA in
previous years, however the introduction of a new program is proving to be an
effective limiter for young offenders. This new Community Reinvestment program
is proving to not only have positive impacts on the youth of Bourke, but is
also saving the region a lot of money. This in turn allows for investment back
into local community programs, that would have otherwise gone towards judicial
processes.
Assumptions:
Based on 2016 Census data:
Bourke Population: 3000
Indigenous persons: 1000
Youth*: 669 or 21%
*For the purposes of this model, “youth” is classified as members of the population under 25 years of age.
Results of reinvestment program:
38% reduction in charges across the top five juvenile offence categories
31% increase in year 12 student retention rates
27% reduction in bail breaches by juveniles
Variables:
Youth Crime rates in Australia as of 2016: 3.33%
References:
Allam, L., (2018). The Guardian. Unique community policing sees crime rates
plunge in Bourke. Retrieved from
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). Census Data for Bourke LGA. Retrieved from
https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/SSC10522
KPMG Impact Assessment (2018). Maranguka
Justice Reinvestment Project. Retrieved from
http://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/
Milliken, R., (2018). Inside Story.
Breakthrough at Bourke. Retrieved from
https://insidestory.org.au/breakthrough-at-bourke/
Thompson, G., McGregor, L., Davies, A.,
(2016). ABC Four Corners. Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving
young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114
Assessment 4 - Effect of Community Reinvestment on Bourke's Youth Population
The effects of youth engagement in the town of Burke
The model
This model simulates the effects of youth alienation, risk behaviours (unemployment and drug and alcohol abuse), community engagement expenditure and police expenditure on youth engagement in the town of Bourke,
Assumptions
Youth population 15-24 years old.
At risk behaviours may include illegal activity, isolation and impulsive and self-destructive behaviour.
Initial Values
Youth population in the town of Burke is 1000
Constants
80% of socially disengaged youth will become alienated.
50% of alienated youth will commit a crime.
70% of alienated youth who commit a crime will be arrested.
20% of youth arrested will be convicted and sent to youth detention
60% of youth arrested and not convicted will return to their former life of social disengagement.
20% of youth arrested will not be convicted and be rehabilitated
Variables (Sliders)
Unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact a high rate of unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse has on youth alienation leading to illegal activity (committing a crime). The variable can also be reduced to show how a decrease in unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse can reduce illegal activity.
Police Expenditure: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact of youth being arrested and going to youth detention and potentially being rehabilitated.
Community Engagement Expenditure: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact of having community engagement expenditure to create positive behaviour changes in alienated youth. Positive behavioural changes decrease when this variable is reduced.
Conclusion
When the sliders are set to a moderate range (unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse – 18, police expenditure – 12, community engagement expenditure – 25), relationships between variables and stocks are apparent. The increase of unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse show an increase in alienation, crime and youth detention. When police expenditure is increased, despite there being an increase in arrests and individuals in youth detention, there is an increase in youth rehabilitation in the town, which prompts positive behavioural changes. When community engagement expenditure is increased there is the increase of community programs which leads to positive behavioural changes after rehabilitation.
The effects of youth engagement in the town of Burke
Youth Alienation in Town Of Bourke
Model
The model give us insight about how alienation in town of Bourke and the relationship between Youth Alienation, Police, and Community engagement.
Assumptions
Youth Population 15 - 26 years old
Youth negative behavior including Drugs, Alcohol Abuse, Unemployment, Violence, Bully.
Initial Values
Youth Population: 1000
Constants
70 % Youth become socially disengage.
70 % Alienation Youth will have Negative Behavior trigger by Unemployment, Drugs, Alcohol Abuse.
60 % Youth with Negative Behavior will join community by asking for help or get information from neighborhood.
40% Youth with Negative Behavior will commit crime.
80 % Rehabilitation member will join Community Group.
Variables (Sliders)
Unemployment, Drugs, Alcohol Abuse: rate of Unmployment, Drugs and Alcohol Abuse in Alienated Youth. This variable can be adjust to show how big the impact is.
Crime Rate: rate of crime by Youth with negative behavior. This variable can be adjust to show increase in crime rate can have significant impact on Police expenditure.
Community Engagement Expenditure : this variable can be adjusted to show the impact of having community engagement expenditure.
Police Engagement Expenditure : This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of youth being arrested and going to youth detention and potentially being rehabilitated.
Conclusion
With this model Youth Crime can be decrease with help from Community Group in 2 years and Youth With positive behavior ( Youth with fulltime and partime job, sports, social services ) will be increase in 2 years.
Assignment 4 - Youth Alienation in Town of Bourke
MKT563 Deborah Graham 11548159
This model has been developed to demonstrate the positive impact the reinvestment program has had on reducing the rate of domestic violence (DV) crimes and driving offences within the community of Bourke.
Assumptions have been made on the starting rate of driving offences.
This simulation demonstrates the impact initiatives such as the Maranguka council's domestic violence intervention approach and police volunteers providing driving lesson has had on the community.
The two main variables are the number domestic violence consultations provided and the number of driving lessons provided. These variables have a direct impact on reducing the corresponding crime rates.
The relationship between domestic violence offences and the consultations provided is fixed. As is the relationship between the rate of driving offences, the number of police volunteers equating to the number of driving lessons and in turn the number of new drivers’ licenses achieved.
Based on the research provided there is approximately 35 domestic violence consultations per year and 8 police volunteers providing driving lessons.
Using the sliders, these variables can be adjusted. Increasing the number of DV consultations provided in a one-year period will see a greater impact to the decrease of domestic violence offences.
Similarly, an increase to the number of driving lessons provided will see the number of drivers licenses increase and therefore the rate of driving related offences decline more rapidly.
Reinvestment in the community of Bourke
Level of youth social engagement in Bourke
The model demonstrates the level of youth social engagement in Bourke depending on 5 variable factors:
1) academic performance during high school, 2) college/university attendance,
3) police expenditure,
4) community programmes expenditure,
5) youth allowance.
Assumptions
Youth population in Bourke amounts to 800 people.
60% of youth generation experience high positive parental involvement, the rest 40% - low or negative.
80% of arrested youth are convicted guilty, the rest 20% - not guilty.
Variables have value from 0 to 1 and have slider option.
Assessment 4_MKT563_Iuliia Goncharenko_11640878
The purpose of this complex system model is to demonstrate the relationships between young adults with good lifestyle and bad lifestyles and how they could be controlled by government funding on police spending and community programs
Variables:
Drugs & Alcohol, Domestic violence, Long-term unemployment, police expenditure and community spending
Conclusion
From the complex system developed above, it could be concluded that the crime rate is indirectly proportional to the amount of government spending on community and police force funding. This means the more they spend on these two infrastrutures the less crime rate it is. Also, factors such as strengthening the family relationship in young adults will also help to reduce the crime rates.
Assessment item 4 - Complex systems_The affect of Police and Community expenditures on Youth crime rate_11693027
Assessment 4 MKT563 Complex systems
Robbins Thapa
Student ID: 11672807
Charles Sturt University
Insights:
The population of the Brouke which is located at the north-west of NSW is 2364, provided by KPMG data.
The various simulations shows that the crime rate decreases with a gradual increase in police and community funding. The youth seeking help from the community tends to have a positive behavioral change.
References:
Allam, L., (2018). The Guardian. Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. Retrieved from
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke
KPMG Impact Assessment (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. Retrieved from
http://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/
Assessment 4 MKT563 Complex systems
Bourke is a remote town in NSW with a population of 2634 people. In 2013 crime figures from Bourke showed the highest assault, break-ins and car theft rates in NSW with crime spikes mostly occurring during nights and school holidays. Over the past five years, the Aboriginal Community has come together to trial a model for change, called Just Reinvest.
This model illustrates the relationship between Community Factors (which includes social disadvantage, economic issues, family trauma) on Disengaged Youth, Crime and the impact of the Just Reinvest Program. This model particularly illustrates the complexity of factors on outcomes and how factors are interrelated making crime a wicked problem that is not easily viewed in isolation from the socio-economic and social causes.
Stocks
Youth in Burke is set based on Australian Bureau of Statistics levels but is easily modified to track population changes on modelling
Disengaged Youth are those with problematic behaviour
Crime Levels are those Disengaged Youth who go on to commit a crime
Early Intervention Programs are those run through Just Reinvest as part of the community program - the quantity of these can be adjusted.
Data of Note
- Economic Impact is five times cost of running the program
- Justice Impacts are roughly 66% and Non-Justice Impacts make up the remaining 33%.
Assumptions
While the UN defines "Youth" as 15 - 24 year olds, the KPMG report outlines programs for 10 - 24 year olds therefore in the context of Bourke the 10 - 24 year old age bracket is considered "Youths". This has been rounded to 700 people (ABS 2016 Census).
While the UN defines "Youth" as 15 - 24 year olds, the KPMG report outlines programs for 10 - 24 year olds therefore in the context of Bourke the 10 - 24 year old age bracket is considered "Youths". This has been rounded to 700 people (ABS 2016 Census).
- It is estmated 70% of Bourke Youths will have problematic behaviour with 50% of those going on to commit a crime and be caught
- Cost of Early Intervention Youth Program is estimated at $100 per person per crime
Conclusion
While this model shows the impacts and benefits of additional funding on early intervention programs and the flow on affects this has on crime, it does not take into account the underlying cultural and social disadvantage issues that are often motivators for crime nor does this model take into account issues such as cultural prejudice and bias, over-policing or additional early intervention methods.
Relationship between Youth Alienation, Police and Community Development in Bourke
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This model is looking at the youth in the town of Bourke, in NSW Australia. It has been designed to look at the impacts that the police force and community engagement can have on the youth in Bourke, specifically in relation to the crime rates within the town and what factors impact on this, including unemployment and drug and alcohol use.
Assumptions:
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->Total youth in Bourke = 25,000
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->Currently in Jail = 15,500
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->Currently in rehabilitation = 6,500
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->Youth who participate in a Community program and complete it = 75%
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->Youth with antisocial behaviour = 2,000
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->Youth with drug and alcohol problems = 6,500
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->Unemployment = 10,000
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->Youth placed into rehab due to drugs = 1,500
The youth in Bourke enter into a community program, and 75% of youth complete the program and return to the total youth. The 25% that do not complete become disengaged and wind up in jail. They complete a rehabilitation program and return to the community after 6 months. Youth with unemployment are impacted by drug and alcohol use and they are either detected by the police and placed into the rehabilitation program, or they are not detected and continue on a cycle of unemployment and drug and alcohol use.
The Government funding goes into the community programs and into the jail. The police force impacts on the disengaged youth entering into jail, the youth who become rehabilitated and detecting the drug and alcohol use of the youth.
There are two graphs in particular that are called out in this model. They are:
<!--[if !supportLists]-->1) <!--[endif]-->Youth in Jail and Disengagement
<!--[if !supportLists]-->2) <!--[endif]-->Youth in the Community Program and Youth Completing the Program
When looking at graph number one with the sliders on 100 Police Staff Members and $50,000 Government Funding you can see that the more youth that complete the program, the less youth there are in jail. We can identify that the completion of the program decreases the amount of youth in jail.
When these sliders are decreased to their lowest with 5 police staff members and $5,000 of government funding we see that the time it takes for the completion of community programs to be surpass the youth in jail occurs after 11 years as opposed to 7 years in the previous graph.
The second graph identifies when the sliders are at their highest the delay and time it takes to engage the youth in the rehabilitation program vs. the youth in the community program, and that the youth entering into the programs and completing match up to one another. When the sliders are at there lowest the rehabilitation sits much lower at all times and the time taken to increase the amount of youth completing the program is substantially longer.
Overall this model stimulates the importance on not only the police force and government funding, but the two working alongside one another for optimum results for the youth in Bourke.
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Sarah Herring Assignment Three
The effects of youth engagement in the town of Burke
The model
This model simulates the effects of youth alienation, risk behaviours (unemployment and drug and alcohol abuse), community engagement expenditure and police expenditure on youth engagement in the town of Bourke,
Assumptions
Youth population 15-24 years old.
At risk behaviours may include illegal activity, isolation and impulsive and self-destructive behaviour.
Initial Values
Youth population in the town of Burke is 1000
Constants
80% of socially disengaged youth will become alienated.
50% of alienated youth will commit a crime.
70% of alienated youth who commit a crime will be arrested.
20% of youth arrested will be convicted and sent to youth detention
60% of youth arrested and not convicted will return to their former life of social disengagement.
20% of youth arrested will not be convicted and be rehabilitated
Variables (Sliders)
Unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact a high rate of unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse has on youth alienation leading to illegal activity (committing a crime). The variable can also be reduced to show how a decrease in unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse can reduce illegal activity.
Police Expenditure: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact of youth being arrested and going to youth detention and potentially being rehabilitated.
Community Engagement Expenditure: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact of having community engagement expenditure to create positive behaviour changes in alienated youth. Positive behavioural changes decrease when this variable is reduced.
Conclusion
When the sliders are set to a moderate range (unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse – 18, police expenditure – 12, community engagement expenditure – 25), relationships between variables and stocks are apparent. The increase of unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse show an increase in alienation, crime and youth detention. When police expenditure is increased, despite there being an increase in arrests and individuals in youth detention, there is an increase in youth rehabilitation in the town, which prompts positive behavioural changes. When community engagement expenditure is increased there is the increase of community programs which leads to positive behavioural changes after rehabilitation.
Clone of The effects of youth engagement in the town of Burke
ContextBourke is a remote town located 800km northwest of Sydney, situated on the Darling River. The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment project emerged as Bourke was concerned about the number of Aboriginal families experiencing high levels of social disadvantage and rising crime. Bourke has worked for many years to develop a model for improving outcomes and creating better coordinated support for vulnerable families and children through the true empowerment of the local Aboriginal community. Maranguka, meaning ‘caring for others’ in Ngemba language, is a model of Indigenous self-governance which empowers the community to coordinate the right mix and timing of services through an Aboriginal community owned and led, multi-disciplinary team working in partnership with relevant government and non-government agencies (Impact of Maranguka Justice Reinvestm...)
The Model
This model simulates the effects of community support funding and crime on at risk youth in the town of Bourke. It also shows how key indicators affect the engagement of youth in society. Breaking the cycle of self destruction by providing support at all stages.
Variables
Bourke Youth- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of population numbers on the effectiveness of community projects and funding levels.Community Funding- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of community support programs to create positive behaviour change.Crime Rate – This variable can be adjusted to show the impact on at risk youth.
Conclusion
The model clearly shows that an increase in support services via increased funding will help break the cycle of youth alienation and build better futures.
The Model
This model simulates the effects of community support funding and crime on at risk youth in the town of Bourke. It also shows how key indicators affect the engagement of youth in society. Breaking the cycle of self destruction by providing support at all stages.
Variables
Bourke Youth- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of population numbers on the effectiveness of community projects and funding levels.Community Funding- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of community support programs to create positive behaviour change.Crime Rate – This variable can be adjusted to show the impact on at risk youth.
Conclusion
The model clearly shows that an increase in support services via increased funding will help break the cycle of youth alienation and build better futures.
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
MKT563 - Assessment 4
Brittany Lawrence, 11660796
This model demonstrates the relationship and factors experienced by the youth of Bourke, in particular how youth alienation, police, and community development and other variables interact with each other. The model simulates the positives and negatives involved with being either socially engaged or socially disengaged. For example, community involvement and rehabilitation for positive factors to drug and alcohol abuse and unemployment for negative factors.
Variances:
There are 3 key variables identified and outlined in the model. They are also the 3 sliders at the bottom.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Community Engagement Expenditure – this shows the impact of having community investment and programs in order to generate positive behavioural changes.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Police Expenditure – this shows the impact of police arresting the disengaged youth and getting involved to prevent further crime. This potentially results in rehabilitation.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Unemployment, Drugs & Alcohol Abuse – this is the strongest negative variance and shows the impact of how a high rate of unemployment, domestic violence and drugs and alcohol abuse can have on youth alienation.
By reducing the negative variables like unemployment and abuse, it decreases the crimes committed and hopefully police expenditure and increases the percentage of socially engaged youth. Additionally, by increasing the community expenditure, it may reduce the percentage of alienated disengaged youths, increasing the positive behavioural changes.
Assumptions:
From the information and sites provided, Bourke’s population is 3,000 and about 1,000 (1/3) identify as Aboriginal. According to ABC’s report “just about all [youth] are aboriginal”. Thus, this model has set the youth population as 1,000 people. Youth has been defined as 10-24 years.
The model resembles the game snakes and ladders, one slip up and Bourke’s disengaged youth can find themselves back at the beginning where they are either at risk or back to committing crime. For instance, if there is no behavioural change once they make it to rehabilitation, whether convicted of their crime or not, they will
As can be seen from the model, it is a slippery slope once Bourke’s youth are disengaged and start to feel alienated, however it is possible to get back on track, whether though police expenditure and involvement, community investment and programs to assist with rehabilitation. Additionally, there is a risk that if an arrested youth is not convicted of the crime, there can be an increase of recidivism, however with the variables in place.
From the KMPG campaign results so far, the variables in place seem to be working and reducing the number of youth in juvenile detention, increase of drivers licences, increase of employment and re-entering into the community.
Bourke Youth Population
Model Explanation
This complex system model visualizes relationships between the investment on police and community and the change of youth crime rate in Bourke, NSW.
Assumptions
Total number of youth population (aged 13 – 19 years old) in Bourke: 1,000
80% of Bourke youth population are assumed to behave negatively.
50% of alienated teenagers are assumed to breach of law or rules.
70% of alienated youth who breach of law or rules will be arrested by police.
60% of teenagers arrested are assumed to be convicted and detained.
40% of teenagers arrested are assumed not to be convicted and detained.
70% of teenagers detained are assumed to participate in juvenile community programs after being released.
70% of teenagers participated in community programs will rehabilitate.
Variables
Drugs & Alcohol, Domestic violence, Long-term unemployment
Police expenses
Community funding
Conclusion
It can be seen that the number of alienated youth and the crime rate will decline over time when investing more on police and juvenile community programs.
Clone of MKT563 Assessment 4 - Simulation of Bourke youth alienation problem - 11641572 SHAN CHEN
MKT563 Deborah Graham 11548159
This model has been developed to demonstrate the positive impact the reinvestment program has had on reducing the rate of domestic violence (DV) crimes and driving offences within the community of Bourke.
Assumptions have been made on the starting rate of driving offences.
This simulation demonstrates the impact initiatives such as the Maranguka council's domestic violence intervention approach and police volunteers providing driving lesson has had on the community.
The two main variables are the number domestic violence consultations provided and the number of driving lessons provided. These variables have a direct impact on reducing the corresponding crime rates.
The relationship between domestic violence offences and the consultations provided is fixed. As is the relationship between the rate of driving offences, the number of police volunteers equating to the number of driving lessons and in turn the number of new drivers’ licenses achieved.
Based on the research provided there is approximately 35 domestic violence consultations per year and 8 police volunteers providing driving lessons.
Using the sliders, these variables can be adjusted. Increasing the number of DV consultations provided in a one-year period will see a greater impact to the decrease of domestic violence offences.
Similarly, an increase to the number of driving lessons provided will see the number of drivers licenses increase and therefore the rate of driving related offences decline more rapidly.
Clone of Reinvestment in the community of Bourke
3 months ago
