A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
The government has reduced both the epidemic and economic development by controlling immigration.
Yuhao c, BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data.
241004_economic growth model structure_SFD
Pathways Causal Loop - Health
I propose we grow this sim model (or similar) over time to help ourselves better understand the opposing investment and austerity strategies now being advocated for the U.S. government. The hope is to build as simple a model as possible that subsumes the major underlying feedback loops that probably exist in the mental models of proponents of each of these positions. Starting this model was inspired by this Investment vs. Austerity discussion http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Investment-vs-Austerity-How-can-4582801.S.157876413
20120908a_InvestmentVsAusterity
Introduction:This model aims to show that how the Tasmania government's COVID-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policies can damage the economy.
Assumption:
Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actual situation.
The government will implement stricter travel bans and social distant policies as there are more cases.
Government policies reduce infection and limit economic growth at the same time.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.
Interesting insights:
A higher testing rate will make the infection increase and the infection rate will slightly increase as well.
Government policies are effective to lower the infection, however, they will damage the local economy. While the higher number of COVID-19 cases also influences economic activities.
Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie_Guoyu Shen
A systems model of the relationships amongst economic situation, health situations and Covid-19 in Burnie, Tasmania.
Health situation
According to exposed and go out population decreases, the population of infected decreases after a stable high cases period.
Economic situation
When the infected population decreases, the population economic recovery increases over time, then become stable after a period of time.
BMA708 Assessment 3 Complex system
Laying out and testing before coupling to main model (which is Final Project)
Socio-Economic Factors
The economy is a self-organizing
system that needs continuous growth and a constant inflow of energy and
materials in order to maintain itself.
Absence of growth will make the system fragile, and economic contraction
could lead very quickly to its collapse. These are characteristics of dissipative
systems that apply to the free market economy. Another characteristic is that
economic activity will unavoidably lead to the generation of waste heat,
greenhouse gases and waste materials that the system must expel into its
environment, making the system unviable in the present context of global
warming and increasing oil prices.
The simplified graphic
representation of the economy shows how it is basically profits that generate the
funds for the resources needed to guarantee that the system can continue to
grow. Loans do not fulfil this function, since loans must be repaid from profit
and credit institutions will be reluctant to extend loans if they fear their
profits are endangered by the inability of creditors to generate enough income
to meet interest payments. So the system depends on private companies and blind
market forces. However, society can no longer rely on a system that is blindly
guided by the profit motive and that is to a large degree responsible for much
of the environmental problems that now afflict us. The system cannot continue in
its present self-reinforcing growth mode. Governments can and must step in to
fulfil their responsibility and fundamentally reform a system that has become harmful
and that is driven exclusively by profit.
The profit motive leads to an unsustainable situation and government intervention.
Overview of Part D Ch 17 to 19 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview
Unemployment and Inflation Theory and Policy
Diagram to illustrate delay in changing to another product when their is a price increase.
Delay in a causal loop diagram
GSGS4610_FastFashion_FinalModel
This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Marco Rubio's
economic policy based on the information at: https://marcorubio.com/issues/debt/ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA)
available:
http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
DRAFT IPA of Marco Rubio economic policy
Map of SD work on Samuelson's 1939 model of the business cycle. See also D-memo D-2311-2 Gilbert Low 1976 and IM-165713. An alernative to the Ch 26 Macroeconomics textbook exposition. From Gil Low's Multiplier Accelerator Model of Business Cycles, Ch 4 of Elements of the System Dynamics Method Book edited by Jorgen Randers 1976 (MIT Press) and 1980 (Productivity Press)
Samuelson multiplier accelerator model
Based on G.P. Cimellaro et al. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 3639–3649 paper
Facilities Disaster Resilience
Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.
Q3 Final Project w/ socio-economic
This Insight Maker model illustrates the complex relationships involved in the destruction of rainforests. The reinforcing loop emphasizes the destructive cycle where economic development leads to increased deforestation, while the balancing loop highlights the negative consequences on biodiversity, climate, and economic activities, attempting to counteract the destructive forces. The model serves as a simplified representation to better understand the interconnected factors contributing to rainforest destruction and the importance of considering feedback loops in addressing environmental issues.
Destruction of Rainforests
Storytelling of My Investigating Insight Theme
Book Fig. 42-43 Economic capital with its reinforcing growth loop constrained by a renewable resource.
THE NEW SCIENCE OF PLEASURE Daniel L. McFadden NBER Working Paper 18687
From Extended Neoclassical to Behavioral Choice Models
Despite a mature field of inquiry, frustrated educational policy makers face a crisis characterized by little to no clear research-based guidance and significant budget limitations -- in the face of too often marginal or unexpectedly deleterious achievement impacts. As such, education performance has been acknowledged as a
complex system and a general call in the literature for causal models has been sounded. This modeling effort represents a strident first step in the development of an evidence-based causal hypothesis: an hypothesis that captures the widely acknowledged complex interactions and multitude of cited influencing factors. This non-piecemeal, causal, reflection of extant knowledge engages a neuro-cognitive definition of students. Through capture of complex dynamics, it enables comparison of different mixes of interventions to estimate net academic achievement impact for the lifetime of a single cohort of students. Results nominally capture counter-intuitive unintended consequences: consequences that too often render policy interventions effete. Results are indexed on Hattie Effect Sizes, but rely on research identified causal mechanisms for effect propagation. Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes of impact have been roughly adjusted to Hattie Ranking Standards (calibration): a non-causal evidence source.
This is a demonstration model and seeks to exemplify content that would be engaged in a full or sufficient model development effort. Budget & time constraints required significant simplifying assumptions. These assumptions mitigate both the completeness & accuracy of the outputs. Features serve to symbolize & illustrate the value and benefits of causal modeling as a performance tool.
Version 10: Hattie Calibrated Education Scenario Tool Capability Demonstration
From Neil WIlson and Steve Keen's double entry accounting view of the money circuit model
Bank money flows
