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THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES CHAOTIC TURBULENCE (+controls)
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Explanation of the Model
This is a Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania which shows the government actions in response to the pandemic COVID-19 and its affects on the Economy. The government health policy changes depending on the reported cases, which is a dependent upon the testing rate. 

Assumptions
Lockdown and travel ban were the main factor in government policy. It negatively impacts on the Economic growth as individuals are not going out which is directly affects the business around the world, in this insight 'Burnie'. This reduces the economic growth and the factors positively effecting economic growth such as Tourism.

Government policies has a negative impact on Exposer of individuals. Moreover, it also has a negative impact on chances of infection when exposed as well as other general infection rate.
 

Interesting Insight 
There is a significant impact of test rating on COVID-19 outbreak. Higher rates increases the government involvement, which decreases cases as well as the total death. 
In contrast, lower testing rates increase the death rate and cases. 

Tourism which plays a avital role in Tasmanian Economy greatly affects the Economic Growth. The decline of Tourism in parts of Tasmania such as Burnie, would directly decrease the economy of Tasmania.


  
BMA 708, Assessment Tast 3: Complex System, Burnie COVID-19 outbreak, Diprina Shakya-519673
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In this Insight I focus on the demand site of the Market and Price model, leaving the supply side out.
Demand factors
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Самостаятельная работа часть 1 Акилбеков Асет
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This model is made to illustrate the components that impact profitability on a basic level. 
Profit maximizing
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Economic growth model delay function
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Spending by the government creates its own 'financial resource' as the process of crediting an account in the private sector takes place. This may sound like nonsense, but in fact it is 'monetary reality'. This premise is supported by Bell (1998; 2000) and Wray (1998a) who argue that the Treasury does not need to collect or borrow funds in order to spend, but crates new funds as it spends.

Perhaps the following thought experiment  helps to understand how this is possible.  

If you imagine two drawers, each representing an account. The first drawer contains 100 gold coins and the second is empty. Also imagine that there are no other gold coins available at this time. Let's call the first drawer account A and the second account B. Now if you want to transfer 30 gold coins from account A to account B, you would actually first have to take the coins out of drawer A and then place them into drawer B. Account A will then necessarily have 30 coins less in it. Now imagine accounts A and B are held in a computer as electronic money. Instead of 100 gold coins, account A only contains the computer generated number '100'  and account B shows '0'. To get account B to show a balance of '30', it would now simple be necessary to change the '0' to '30' on the computer. The need to raid account A and to take '30' from the number '100' before you could credit  account B does not exist. Money is created as it is entered in B's account irrespective of whether A's account is debited before or after this process or not at
Monetary Reality
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Rx vs Wilfire
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Introduction:
This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. It shows how the government policy tries to reduce the spread of COVID-19 whilst also impacting the local economy.

Assumptions:
This model has four variables that influence the number of COVID-19 cases: infection rate, immunity loss rate, recovery rate and death rate.

In order to reduce the pandemic spread, in this model, assume the government released six policies when Burnie COVID-19 cases are equal or over 10 cases. Policies are vaccination promotion, travel restriction to Burnie, quarantine, social distance, lockdown and testing rate.

Government policies would reduce the pandemic. However, it decreases economic growth at the same time. In this model, only list three variable that influence local economic activities. 
Travel restrictions and quarantine will reduce Burnie tourism and decrease the local economy. On the other hand, quarantine, social distance, lockdown allow people to stay at home, increasing E-commerce business.
As a result, policies that cause fewer COVID-19 cases also cause more considerable negative damage to the economy.

Interesting insights:
One of the interesting findings is that the government policy would reduce the COVID-19 spread significantly if I adjust the total government policies are over 20% (vaccine promotion, travel restriction, quarantine, social distance, lockdown), 3560 people will die, then no more people get COVID-19.
However, if I change the total government policy to less than 5%, the whole Burnie people will die according to the model. Therefore, we need to follow the polices, which saves our lives.
BMA708 assignment3 - Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie
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Marine tourism and snorkeling in the maldives
5 11 months ago
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The causes of homelessness is illustrated in this causal loop diagram
Homelessness problem
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Georgism
5 months ago
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Backup: MONEY_People, Experts. Knowledge IPN_Model2_Oscillations_R_0.2.2.B
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Stage 5 World Premiere Economy and Fossil Fuels
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Description:

This is a system dynamics model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie which shows the process of infections and how  government responses, impact on the local economy.  

First part is outbreak model, we can know that when people is infected, there are two situations. One is that he recovers from  treatment, but even if he recovered, the immunity loss rate increase, makes him to become infected again. The other situation is death. In this outbreak, the government's health policies (ban on non-essential trips, closure of non-essential retailers, limits on public gatherings and quarantine )  help to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 new cases. Moreover,  government legislation is dependent on  number of COVID-19 cases and testing rates. 

 Second part: the model of Govt legislation and economic impact. Gov policy can help to reduce infection rate and local economy at same way. The increase of number of COVID-19 cases has a negative impact on local Tourism industry and economic growth rate. On the other hand, Govt legislation also can be change when reported COVID-19 case are less or equal to 10.






Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie(Yafei Shi 489576)
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This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Hillary Clinton's economic policy based on the information at: https://www.hillaryclinton.com/the-four-fights/economy-of-tomorrow/
The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
DRAFT IPA of Hillary Clinton Economic Policy
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Lakon_Energy Economics Fossil Fuel
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This paper aims at describing a case where system dynamics modeling was used to evaluate the effects of information and material supply lead-time variation on sales contributions margins and operating cash conversion cycle of a commodity export business.  An empirical dynamic model, loaded with econometric theory of price effect on competitive demand, was used to describe the input data.  The model simulation outputs proved themselves relevant in analyzing the complex interconnections of multiple variables affecting  the profitability in a commercial routine, supporting the decision process among sales managers.

SDR Case study System dynamic modelling
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Launch page for Macroeconomics Textbook 2019 by Mitchell, Wray and Watts. There is also a book companion site
Macroeconomics Textbook Overview
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This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Mike Huckabee's economic policy based on the information at: http://www.mikehuckabee.com/tax-reform and http://www.mikehuckabee.com/spending-debt (here, the candidate did not have a single clear economic policy, so we used economic elements from other policy statements that were clearly relevant).   The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
DRAFT IPA of Mike Huckabee Economic Policy
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Economic Model - Final Project
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Clone of Pesticide Use in Central America for Lab work


This model is an attempt to simulate what is commonly referred to as the “pesticide treadmill” in agriculture and how it played out in the cotton industry in Central America after the Second World War until around the 1990s.

The cotton industry expanded dramatically in Central America after WW2, increasing from 20,000 hectares to 463,000 in the late 1970s. This expansion was accompanied by a huge increase in industrial pesticide application which would eventually become the downfall of the industry.

The primary pest for cotton production, bol weevil, became increasingly resistant to chemical pesticides as they were applied each year. The application of pesticides also caused new pests to appear, such as leafworms, cotton aphids and whitefly, which in turn further fuelled increased application of pesticides. 

The treadmill resulted in massive increases in pesticide applications: in the early years they were only applied a few times per season, but this application rose to up to 40 applications per season by the 1970s; accounting for over 50% of the costs of production in some regions. 

The skyrocketing costs associated with increasing pesticide use were one of the key factors that led to the dramatic decline of the cotton industry in Central America: decreasing from its peak in the 1970s to less than 100,000 hectares in the 1990s. “In its wake, economic ruin and environmental devastation were left” as once thriving towns became ghost towns, and once fertile soils were wasted, eroded and abandoned (Lappe, 1998). 

Sources: Douglas L. Murray (1994), Cultivating Crisis: The Human Cost of Pesticides in Latin America, pp35-41; Francis Moore Lappe et al (1998), World Hunger: 12 Myths, 2nd Edition, pp54-55.

Clone of Clone of REM 221 - Causal Loop diagramming
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Very basic stock-flow diagram of simple interest with table and graph output in interest, bank account and savings development per year. Initial deposit, interest rate, yearly deposit and withdrawal, and initial balance bank account can all be modified. 
I have developed a lesson plan in which students work on both simple and compound interest across both IM and Excel. I also wrote an article about this in Dutch, which you can translate using for example Google Translate: https://kdrive.infomaniak.com/app/share/1524656/93e2021a-6fc1-4b2c-8bcd-643a607526db

Also have a look at some of my other diagrams, for example: https://insightmaker.com/insight/6hPaqcl0YETrQcWKYkXeu2
Stock-Flow diagram of savings account - simple interest
8 10 months ago