A Model for COVID-19 outbreak

The Logistic Map is a polynomial mapping (equivalently, recurrence relation) of degree 2, often cited as an archetypal example of how complex, chaotic behaviour can arise from very simple non-linear dynamical equations. The map was popularized in a seminal 1976 paper by the biologist Robert May, in part as a discrete-time demographic model analogous to the logistic equation first created by Pierre François Verhulst. 

Mathematically, the logistic map is written

where:

 is a number between zero and one, and represents the ratio of existing population to the maximum possible population at year n, and hence x0 represents the initial ratio of population to max. population (at year 0)r is a positive number, and represents a combined rate for reproduction and starvation.
For approximate Continuous Behavior set 'R Base' to a small number like 0.125To generate a bifurcation diagram, set 'r base' to 2 and 'r ramp' to 1
To demonstrate sensitivity to initial conditions, try two runs with 'r base' set to 3 and 'Initial X' of 0.5 and 0.501, then look at first ~20 time steps

This model is based off Meadows economic capital with reinforcing growth loop constrained by a renewable resource model.

This model is designed for the local government of Burnie, Tasmania, aiming to help with balancing COIVD-19 and economic impacts during a possible outbreak. 

The model has been developed based upon the SIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model used in epidemiology. 

It lists several possible actions that can be taken by the government during a COVID-19 outbreak and provide the economic impact simulation. 

The model allow users to Change the government policies factors (Strength of Policies) and simulate the total economic impact.

Interestingly, the government plicies largely help with controlling the COVID outbreak. However, the stronger the policies are, the larger impact on local economy

Simple model of the global economy, the global carbon cycle, and planetary energy balance.

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Jim Webb. The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

This model simulates the economics of buying a home. It was created to compare buying a home against using investment returns to pay for rent.

Scott Page's Aggregation diagram from Complexity and Sociology 2015 article see also IM-9115 and SA IM-1163

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Hillary Clinton's economic policy based on the information at: https://www.hillaryclinton.com/the-four-fights/economy-of-tomorrow/
The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Bernie Sanders. The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

Simple causal loop diagram of a compound interest savings account.