This simulation models the stock and flow of energy between a star, a planet’s surface (primarily its oceans, which are the largest reservoir of heat), and space.The assumptions governing this model are:

1. The planet absorbs a fraction of the shortwave radiation arriving from its star, with that fraction given by (1-A), where A is albedo. 

2. The planet radiates longwave infrared radiation into space, with the amount of radiation into space given by σΤe4, where σ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant and Te is the temperature of the effective radiating level.

3. The atmospheric lapse rate is 6 K/km.

4. If there is an imbalance between shortwave radiation absorbed and longwave radiation emitted, the imbalance affects the temperature of the planet. However, it does not do so instantaneously – the imbalance must heat or cool the mixed layer of the ocean.

5. At the start of the simulation, the planet is extremely close to equilibrium given its default parameters. If any of these parameters are changed, the planet will be out of equilibrium, and will have to adjust.

The cotton industry expanded dramatically in Central America after WW2, increasing from 20,000 hectares to 463,000 in the late 1970s. This expansion was accompanied by a huge increase in industrial pesticide application which would eventually become the downfall of the industry.

The primary pest for cotton production, bol weevil, became increasingly resistant to chemical pesticides as they were applied each year. The application of pesticides also caused new pests to appear, such as leafworms, cotton aphids and whitefly, which in turn further fuelled increased application of pesticides. 

The treadmill resulted in massive increases in pesticide applications: in the early years they were only applied a few times per season, but this application rose to up to 40 applications per season by the 1970s; accounting for over 50% of the costs of production in some regions. 

The skyrocketing costs associated with increasing pesticide use were one of the key factors that led to the dramatic decline of the cotton industry in Central America: decreasing from its peak in the 1970s to less than 100,000 hectares in the 1990s. “In its wake, economic ruin and environmental devastation were left” as once thriving towns became ghost towns, and once fertile soils were wasted, eroded and abandoned (Lappe, 1998). 

Sources: Douglas L. Murray (1994), Cultivating Crisis: The Human Cost of Pesticides in Latin America, pp35-41; Francis Moore Lappe et al (1998), World Hunger: 12 Myths, 2nd Edition, pp54-55.