THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

Multiscale view of Combined PH and Economic Views IM 70763  in preparation for integrating with Prevention Investment Framework (private) IM

Adapted from Hartmut Bossel's "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."

​Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for the elderly, pensions dynamics, etc.

Irving Fisher's Debt Deflation Theory from Michael Joffe Fig. 3.4 p54 Ch3 Feedback Economics Book with Private Credit Inflation boom added to the  bust cycles

Assumptions are 1.) Indeterminate variety tomato 2.) One initial purchase of 55 Bonnie indeterminate heirloom varieties required, subsequent plantings are from seed-saving and price included initial cost3.) Chard seeds bought new per season 4.) Entire area of greenhouse devoted to chard or tomato at one time 5.) No maintenance costs required- greenhouse structure built to withstand 5 years

Tomato

10.6kg/1.85m2= 5.7kg/m2/season

Total potential tomato production/season= 5.7kg/m2*11m2(total area greenhouse) = 63.02 kg tomatoes/season

Average Price of Tomatoes (USDA report) Southwest U.S.1 = 2.29$/kg

Potential Harvest Income= 2.29$/kg* 63.02 kg tomatoes/season= $144.3/season

Swiss Chard

8.7kg/1.85m2= 4.7 kg/m2/season

Total potential swiss chard production/season= 4.7 kg/m2*11m2(total area greenhouse)= 51.7 kg chard/season

Average Price Swiss Chard (FreshDirect)= $6.6/kg

Potential Harvest Revenue =$6.6/kg*51.7 kg chard/season= $341.22/season

ROI (assuming t=5 years)

Bonnie Tomato Plants= 9 plants/1.85 meters≈ 5 plants/m2*11m2=55 plants/greenhouse 

Price Per Bonnie Tomato Plant≈ 4dollars/plant (averaged due to the different varieties in use)

 $4/plant*55 plants= $220 

Chard plants= 8 plants/1.85 meters≈ 4 plants/m2*11m2= 44 plants/greenhouse

1 seed packet/1.85 meters= 6 packets/11m2/year= $4.14*6=$24.84/year

Total Variable Cost = 24.84/year

Total Investment Cost= Initial fixed costs (construction and tomato purchase) + 5 year variable= $1800 +($220)+($22.84*5)= 2,134.2

Total annual revenue= $341.22 chard+ ($144.3*2) tomato= $629.82

Total revenue for 5 Years= $629.82*5=3,149.1

ROI Greenhouse= ($3,149.1-$2,134.2)/$2,134.2= 48% return on investment

Annualized ROI (5 years)

=[(1+.48)⅕-1]*100%= 8.1% annual ROI

On the occasion of th G20-meeting in Toronto, the German Economics minister Herr Schaüble said that without restoring confidence it would not be possible to get consumer spending and business investment going. Similar remarks were made by David Cameron and Señor Zapatero of Spain. All maintain that confidence is a pre-requisite to get growth going and that, therefore, it was imperative to reduce fiscal deficits. Reducing the fiscal deficit will restore confidence at first. However, reducing the deficit very quickly will introduce a dynamic that may cause the economy to decline - and perhaps depress  consumers demand even further.  It will actually destroy confidence: few businesses are inclined to invest in a shrinking economy. Cutting the deficit too rapidly or too steeply can lead to a confidence trap.

NOTE: A big experiment is now taking place in the UK - the government has cut public spending severely! Will this lead to hardship and, perhaps, social unrest? 

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Summary WIP of Thomas Palley's 2012 Book

THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

not a mathematical model. just a general one

I have been asked re-model the diagram from question 1(ii) and describe in more depth of the current situation at Mansfield Crowd funds Town Centre

MODERN MONETARY THEORY SHOWS HOW FULL EMPLOYMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED!

POTENTIAL GDP is a level of overall spending - by the government and the non-government sector - at which there is full employment. If the economy is not operating at its potential, then the  private sector has failed to invested or spend enough to generate the necessary growth nor has income  from net exports contributed enough. This only leaves the government to close the spending gap. Conceptually, a government disposing of its own freely floating currency could act using two powerful tools -  spending in excess of tax revenue, and taxation - to ensure that the gap between the actual economic activity and potential GDP is quickly closed. Achieving the  full employment that prevailed for 30 years between 1945 and 1975 in western economies is definitely possible! 

Nobody seems to notice bubbles until they burst. One possible reason is that those caught up in a bubble are completely blinded by the grip, the overpowering logic and force excerted by the positive feedback loop that drives it. Financial bubbles occur time and time again - and nobody seems to learn. Another example on a different time scale is an argument that spins out of control and ends in violence. The participants seem to be blind to the consequences; the immediate and imperative logic of the feedback loop imposes itself. The vortex created by the feedback loop even seems to draw in outsiders, such as new investors. Is this the reason why we don't notice bubbles? This explanation is meant to stimulate discussion!

​Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Rating Matrix of S&P

Dynamic model for Tesla Motors for 10 years from 2017 up to 2027

THE NEW SCIENCE OF PLEASURE Daniel L. McFadden NBER Working Paper 18687

This model analyzes the interaction between climate change mitigation and adaptation in the land use sector using the concept of forest transition as a framework.