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INTRODUCTION

This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID 19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure) affect the local economy. This model has 13 positive loops and seven negative loops. Government response is dependent on the number of reported COVID-19 cases which in turn thought to be dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered from COVID 19 and dead. Economic activity is dependent on the economic growth rate, increased in online shopping, increased in unemployment, number of people who do not obey the rules, COVID 19 cases and health policies.

ASSUMPTIONS

· Both infection and economic growth is reduced by enforcing government policies

· However, the negative effect of government policies is reduced by the number of people who do not obey government health policies

· Govt policies are enforced when the reported COVID-19 case are 10 or greater.

· Number of COVID cases reported is dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered and dead.

· The higher number of COVID-19 cases have a negative effect on local economy. This phenomena is known as negative signalling.

· Government policies have a negative effect on economic activity because health policies limit both social and economic activities which directly or indirectly affect the economy in Burnie .

· This negative effect is somewhat reduced by the increase in online shopping and the number of people who do not obey heath rules.

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

The test ratings seem to play a vital role in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. Higher Rates of COVID testings decrease the number of COVID 19 deaths and number of infected. This is because higher rates of testing accelerate the government involvement (as the government intervention is triggered earlier, 10 COVID cases mark is reached earlier). Delaying the government intervention by reducing the COVID testing rates increases the death rates and number of infected.

Increased testing rates allow the figures (deaths, susceptible, infected) to reach a plateau quickly.

BMA708- Shakila Bethmage- 548351 - COVID 19 Outbreak in Burnie

Shakila Piyumi Perera Bethmage

Investment with depreciation (simple)

Karoly

yesterday

Enunciado do ploblema do projeto:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-QIzc4nqMvKdWJLdEZXSzJMTzA/edit?usp=sharing

Perquentas e problemas

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-e5AFCR_wXCamHt_JJt_j045YCKeQ-woegZT7y3Fe80/edit

simulador economico

https://projetobiomassa.slack.com/messages/C02FPF8GF/files/F59249AKT/

NOME E DESCRIÇÃO

LINK

TAMANHO

Prova1.Investimento Fixo e Tomada de Decisões Rápidas

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184101

33 KB

Prova.2.Investimento método Lang

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184144

32 KB

Prova 3 Investimento Fixo método Chilton

ihttps://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184169

33 KB

Prova4:Custo Fixo

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184189

32 KB

Prova 5:Custo de mao de obra

customaohtm custo de mao de obra

33 KB

Prova 6 Custo de mat,comb e enegia

CustoMat prima , energia

34 KB

Prova 7 Custo total

custo de operacional de producao

33 KB

Prova 8 Ponto deEquilibrio

ponto de eqilibrioibrio

32 KB

Prova 9:Analise de lucro e beneficios

Fluxo de caixa

33 KB

Simulacao e otimizacao economica Miniemporesa

Pagandai V Pannir Selvam

40

Book summary of Albert O Hirschman's 1982 book, explaining cycles of collective public action.

Shifting involvements

Geoff McDonnell

3

About the Model

This model is a dynamic model which explains the relationship between the police of the government and the economy situation in Burnie Tasmania after the outbreak of Corona Virus.

This model is based on SIR model, which explains the dynamic reflection between the people who were susceptible, infected,deaths and recovered.

Assumptions

This model assumes that when the Covid-19 positive is equal or bigger than 10, the government policy can be triggered. This model assumes that the shopping rate in retail shops and the dining rates in the restaurants can only be influenced by the government policy.

Interesting Insights

The government police can have negative influence on the infection process, as it reduced the possibility of people get infected in the public environments. The government policy has a negative effect on shopping rate in retail shops and the dining rate in the restaurants.

However, the government policy would cause negative influence on economy. As people can not shopping as normal they did, and they can not dinning in the restaurants. The retail selling growth rate and restaurant revenue growth rate would be reduced, and the economic situation would go worse.

Corona virus outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Xuexiao Zhang 538712)

Xuexiao Zhang

A simple budget planning system. What additional complexities can you add?

ISD Savings Plan

Kevin Collins

126

SFR23 Scenario 1

Cristian Matti

4

this model shows the relationship between economic growth and government debt (just the bailout debt) and the mortgage default burden. At the current rates, the debt will never be paid off.

bailout debt, mortgage defaults and economic growth

James Fitzsimons

Stephen P Dunn 2010 Book summary including Technostructure MMT PCT critical realist and managing perceptions links

The Economics of JK Galbraith

Geoff McDonnell

The upper diagram shows the principal factors that have an influence on the budget deficit and indicates what needs to be done to correct it. But this is not the full story. The diagram below shows that cutting public expenditure reduces aggregate demand and increases unemployment. The reduction of aggregate demand reduces economic activity which has the effect of reducing tax revenue. In addition, the state has to pay out funds as there is a need for more unemployment benefit payments. The result of these austerity measures is often the opposite of their intended purpose: they can increase rather than decrease the budget deficit.

There is plenty of empiric evidence to show that this has happened time and time again. For instance, a report from UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) found that between 1990 and 2000 in all the cases examined where cutbacks in public spending and tax increases were used, the fiscal situation did not only not improve but worsened. Despite such repeated evidence, unfortunately calls for austerity measures continue to be heard.

Fallacy of Spending Cuts

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Graph representation of Ch3 of their 2007 Monetary Economics book, based on Alvarez and Ehnts 2015 paper The roads not taken. Also see more complex WIP to successively split sectors at IM-185550 . See also essence of MMT IM for simpler intro

Godley and Lavoie Simple Growth Model

Geoff McDonnell

Marine tourism and snorkeling in the maldives

Anna

5

Whitney_6550_Covid-19_GlobalCrisis

Nora Whitney

Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen's illustration of Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis "stability begets instability". This can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.

Minsky Financial Instability Model

Geoff McDonnell

29

A system dynamics model to CBA of smart grid project

STATIC_Model_System dynamics approach to Isernia CBA Case

Jose Angel L V

10

Model description:

This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania, death cases, the governmental responses and Burnie local economy.

More importantly, the impact of governmental responses to both Covid-19 infection and to local economy, the impact of death cases to local economy are illustrated.

The model is based on SIR (Susceptible, Infected and recovered) model.

Variables:

The simulation takes into account the following variables:

Variables related to Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): Death rate. (4): Immunity loss rate.

Variables related to Governmental policies: (1): Vaccination mandate. (2): Travel restriction to Burnie. (3): Economic support. (4): Gathering restriction.

Variables related to economic growth: Economic growth rate.

Adjustable variables are listed in the part below, together with the adjusting range.

Assumptions:

(1): Governmental policies are aimed to control(reduce) Covid-19 infections and affect (both reduce and increase) economic growth accordingly.

(2) Governmental policy will only be applied when reported cases are 10 or more.

(3) The increasing cases will negatively influence Burnie economic growth.

Enlightening insights:

(1) Vaccination mandate, when changing from 80% to 100%, doesn't seem to affect the number of death cases.

(2) Governmental policies are effectively control the growing death cases and limit it to 195.

Burnie Tasmania Covid - 19 outbreak simulation Model by Yankang Huang 541 277

Yankang Huang

From Jay Forrester 1988 killian lectures youtube video describing system dynamics at MIT. For Concepts See IM-185226. For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial webpage For MIT HIstory see IM-184930

System Dynamics Applications

Geoff McDonnell

ESI6550 Group 6

Trevor Case

Based on 2023 framework from Australian Treasury mapped into the Salutogenesis framework via social wellbeing

Measuring What Matters Framework

Geoff McDonnell

The model is built to demonstrates how Burnie Tasmania can deal with a new COVID-19 outbreaks, taking government policies and economic effects into account.

The susceptible people are the local Burnie residents. If residents were infected, they would either recovered or dead. However, even they do recover, there is a chance that they will get infected again if immunity loss occurs.

From the simulation result we can see that with the implementation of local government policies including travel ban and social distancing, the number of infected people will decrease. The number of recovered people will increase in the first 5 weeks but then experience a decrease.

In addition, with the implementation of local government policy, the economic environment in Burnie will be relatively stable when the number of COVID-19 cases is stable.

How Burnie, Tasmania can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19

Jie Sun

3

WIP concepts from Rachel Turner's Book Neo-liberal Ideology

Neoliberal concepts

Geoff McDonnell

System Thinking and Modelling of Brgy. Irawan, PPC (Biophysical, Cultural and Economic Component)

Pia Mae Palay

周末作业

Jingyi Pei

I made this stock flow diagram from a text in the Regenerative Economics textbook (https://www.regenerativeeconomics.earth/regenerative-economics-textbook/1-introduction-to-the-economy/1-1-what-is-the-economy/1-1-1-the-economy-and-you).

Leave cutter ants

Henny van Dongen