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Health Determinants
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Description for Each Simulation Tag:

CRISIS:
- Price increasing dramatically, surpasses average detached home price of 3 million in 3 years if left unaddressed
- Housing Demand by potential buyer population will increase due to unmet financial means (Interest rate and price too high). To secure housing, the outflow is linked to price that is affected by supply and demand.
- Total occupied homes will decrease as empty homes purchased by foreign investors for "house flipping" increase and doubles within 5 years.

DEMAND:
-  Demand for housing in Vancouver will increase, but the amount of people motivated to buy with financial means "buyer population", will decrease in correlation.

SUPPLY:
- Prices do not follow traditional supply and demand concepts. Supply of houses on the market is increasing but, as shown, unable to sell because of unaffordability.

SYSTEMS MODEL LOGISTICS:
- Split into demand and supply with interlinked links
- Supply is a feedback system with sold houses branching off into empty housing or occupied housing
- All flows and stocks are linked with the intention that as market price changes, so will various system dynamics
- Used various functions to simulate a more diverse and accurate system

Sustainability: Economic (prices, housing market), Social (motivation to buy and sell)
Crisis Model - Vancouver Housing Crisis
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I propose we grow this sim model (or similar) over time to help ourselves better understand the opposing investment and austerity strategies now being advocated for the U.S. government. The hope is to build as simple a model as possible that subsumes the major underlying feedback loops that probably exist in the mental models of proponents of each of these positions. Starting this model was inspired by this Investment vs. Austerity discussion http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Investment-vs-Austerity-How-can-4582801.S.157876413

20120908a_InvestmentVsAusterity
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Peak oil will occur when it is too expensive to bring oil to the surface and not when reserves reach their limit. Companies must make a profit to be able to extract oil and stay in the oil business.  However, that endeavour is becoming more and more difficult because of diminishing returns. They have to dig ever deeper to get to the oil  at ever increasing costs, and the oil they find deep down is of a lesser quality.  We have now reached a point where the price needed by oil companies to make a profit and stay in business is far higher than the price  the market can bear. That price is probably about $ 100 per barrel - and rising every year! A market price o $ 100 will almost certainly cause a sharp recession and cause the price of oil to fall back beyond the point of profitability. For example, the combined profit of ExxonMobile, Chevron and Conocophillips fell from 80.4 billion in 2011 to only 3.7 billon in 2016 - see URL below. What the market can bear depends on the spending power of the mass of non-elite workers. The CLD shows the negative feedback loops that prevent oil prices to rise above the level of  affordability. If non-elite workers cannot afford the goods and services offered,  then there will be no demand for them and by extension for oil.  In this situation the market price will not the cover the cost that oil companies need to extract oil. Oil supplies will decline and so will economic activity!

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-blood-bath-continues-in-the-u-s-major-oil-industry/

THE PRICE TRAP AND PEAK OIL
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Socio-economic factors (kaya)
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SSM Lionfish Management PT2 revised with Storytelling
last month
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Social determinants of health are economic and social conditions that influence the health of people and communities. These conditions are shaped by the amount of money, power, and resources that people have, all of which are influenced by policy choices. Social determinants of health affect factors that are related to health outcomes. Factors related to health outcomes include:
  • How a person develops during the first few years of life (early childhood development)
  • How much education a persons obtains
  • Being able to get and keep a job
  • What kind of work a person does
  • Having food or being able to get food (food security)
  • Having access to health services and the quality of those services
  • Housing status
  • How much money a person earns
  • Discrimination and social support
Determinates of a healthy population
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An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.
K Collins Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.02
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An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.
Claire - Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.02
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A framework exploring flood risk management in a developing city, under the old paradigm of control - characterised by narrowly defined goals and an over-reliance on hard-engineered structural solutions.
Urban flood risk (control paradigm)
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​BACKGROUND:

The following simulation model demonstrates the relationship between supply, demand and pricing within the real estate and housing world. I have based the model on a small city with a population of 100,000 residents as of 2015. 

AXIS:

X-Axis
The X-Axis shows the time. It begins in 2015 in the month of October and continues for 36 consecutive years. 

Y-Axis
There are 2 Y-Axis on this model. The left hand side relates to the price, demand, and supply, while the right hand side solely lists the population.

As you could see, this town has a population of 100,000 residents to-date. The bottom of the model shows a population loop that produces an exponential growth rate of 2.5%. This dynamic and growing city populates approximately 240,000 residents after 36 years.

MODEL

The model consists of 2 folders named: Buyers/Consumers & Suppliers/Producers. This first folder represents the 'Demand'. It includes a buyers growth rate, buyers interest increase and decrease, a price demand and the demand price. The formulas form an exponential rise in demand due to the rapid and continuous increase in population in this new city. As population increases, so does the demand from buyers. 

The second folder conveys the supply of houses. It includes a sophisticated loop of real estate. Residents who own houses in the market decide to sell the home. This becomes the Houses for sale, also known as the 'supply'. Those houses are sold and the sold houses re-enter the market and the loop continues. 

The supply has an inverse relationship with the price. When prices drop, supplies drop because the demand goes up. And when the price goes up, so does the supply. This will represent the growth of new houses in the market. 

PRICE

Note: The price is based on monthly rent rates.

The price is dependant on many variables. Most importantly, the supply and demand. It also includes factors such as expectations & the economic value of the house. I have included a stable, 'good' economic value for all homes as this fictional town is in a stable and growing area.

Price fluctuates throughout the entire simulation, however it also goes up in price. Over the years houses continue to rise in price while they regularly fluctuate. For example, in 2018 (3 years later), the max price for a home was: $4254.7 and min price was: $852.98. On the other hand, in October 2051 (36 years later), the max price was: $14906 and the min price was: $7661. (This is based on the following data: Houses for Sale: 500, Houses that have sold: 100, Houses in the Market: 730).

SLIDERS

There are 3 sliders on the bottom that could be altered. The simulation would react accordingly. The 3 sliders include changeable data on:
- Houses for Sale.
- Houses that have Sold.
- Houses in the Market.


Real Estate Simulation Assignment - Mitchell Bassil 43290264
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3. PROBLEMAS e  PERGUNTAS SOBRE  projetos de SISTEMA INTEGRADO DE GESTÃO CUSTOS , INVESTIMENTOS BASEADO MODELOS MATEMÁTICOS: veja  https://docs.google.com/document/d/1oGmItBcErhVF0PWuI37AnpP3n8Up3Zu45W7QB1MMbcY/edit?usp=sharing

Projeto  de investimentos , custos   e viabilidade econômico de LCC

A planta foi dimensionada para produzir 9.000 Ton/ano da Resina usando o matéria prima

LCC , operando 24h/dia, durante os três turnos por 300 dias/anuais. O preço do produto de projeto de lcc 

veja  o prova html aula passados 


1. Calcule o investimento em planta (If) usando o método rápido e investimento em

equipamento (Ie) baseado no método de lang. Admita valor de N e f1 de acordo com o fluxograma do processo.

Dados fornecidos: Entrada (alimentação)-sólido; Saída-líquido;

Equipamentos principais da produção: Destilador e fermentador.

2. Calcule o investimento fixo total pelo método chilton através das estimativas dos investimentos fixos diretos: Tubulação, instrumentação, estrutura física, planta de serviço e conexões entre unidades; e investimentos fixos indiretos. Tome como base o investimento em equipamentos.

             veja dados na prova html   simulados sobre fator chiltons , modelos  de lang , decico , chiltons e dados na prova html 


3. Calcule o custo de mão-de- obra direta e indireta baseando-se no fluxograma de processo , atualizando  o valor salário mínimo e nos salários:

Valor do salário mínimo = R$180,00

Engenheiro químico = 10 salários mínimos

Operador industrial = 3 salários mínimos

Administração:

Gerente = 8 salários mínimos

Auxiliar de escritório = 3 salários mínimos

Secretária = 2 salários mínimos

Dados fornecidos: Considere os encargos sociais de 65% sobre o salário base. Mão-de- obra

indireta seja 20% da mão-de- obra direta. O custo de mão-de- obra indireta engloba

manutenção.

4. Calcule os custos fixos abaixo, baseando-se pelo método Sebrae:

Dados 

4.1 Depreciação = 10%If

4.2 Manutenção = 3%If

4.3 Seguro = 1%If

4.4 Imposto = 2%If

5. Calcule o custo de consumo anual de matéria-prima de acordo com os dados  , veja prova html a seguir 

5.2 Calcule o custo unitário de matéria prima sendo 80% do valor do custo total anual da

matéria-prima. , dados  , veja na link enunciados  e prova html 

6. Calcule os custos totais:

6.1 Encargos anuais

6.2 Administração = 0.6 (mão-de- obra direta + mão-de- obra indireta + encargos anuais)

6.3 Suprimentos = 0.15 (Manutenção)

6.4 Calcule os custos fixos

6.5 Calcule os custos variáveis

6.6 Calcule os custos variáveis

* Os custos fixos englobam administração

Custo variável = custo de matéria – prima + custo de utilitários + custo de suprimentos.

Custo de suprimentos é 10% da mão-de- obra direta.

Depreciação = 10% do investimento fixo.

7. Estimar o ponto de equilíbrio em quantidade e em porcentagem baseado em dados obtidos de custo variável unitário) e Custo fixo do problema 06.


8. Estime os itens da análise de investimento:

– Taxa de retorno de engenharia simples

– Tempo de retorno

– % de lucro em relação ao preço de venda

– Lucro após o imposto de renda

– Lucratividade

– Rentabilidade

– Fluxo de caixa

9. Estimar potencial econômico de projeto de perdas devido ao baixo rendimento de operação em nível de 90% de rendimento máximo em vez de 98%.

 

 Dados de  consumos de  materiais e energia obtidos  via uso de calculadora usando    quiz html de modelos já apresentados aula passos





NOME E DESCRIÇÃO

LINK

TAMANHO

Prova1validacao.:Investimento Fixo e Tomada de Decisões Rápidas

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184101

33 KB

Prova.2 Validacao .Investimento fixo método Lang

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184144

32 KB

Prova 3 :Investimento Fixo método Chilton

ihttps://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184169


33 KB

Prova4:Custo Fixo

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184189

32 KB

Prova 5::Custo de mao de obra

customaohtm custo de mao de obra

33 KB

Prova 6 Validao : Custo de mat,comb e enegia

CustoMat prima , energia

34 KB

Prova 7 Custo total

custo de operacional  de  producao

33 KB

Prova 8 Ponto deEquilibrio 

ponto de eqilibrioibrio

32 KB

Prova 9:Analise de lucro e beneficios

Fluxo de caixa

33 KB




gestao economical planta resina fenolicas lcc .Modelos e resultados validados validado via planilhas
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This insight includes a Limits to Success archetype. (Bubbles colored with a darker blue)
Economical Factor
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Decarbonization Stories
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GSGS_GREECE_GERMANY_MIGRATION_DRAFT
29 2 months ago
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Economical Factors of Science: C8
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Week 13.1 Lab Economic Model
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Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.
Utopia!!!!!!!
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Format: Given pre-conditions when independent variables(s) then dependent variable

Given Earnings Decline (0.25), Spending Variance (55), Initial Investment (500) and Rate of Return (RandNormal(0.06, 0.12)) when one of these independent variables change then how sensitive is Investment (22) over a 30 year time period (-1,000)

H1: if you Earn more then Investment will last much longer => rejected

H2: if you Spend less then Investment will last much longer => accepted

H3: if your Initial Investment is higher then Investment will last much longer => accepted

H4: if you reduce your Spend when Investments are declining then Investment will last much longer => accepted

Given Earnings Decline (0.25), Spending Variance (55), Initial Investment (500) and Rate of Return (RandNormal(0.06, 0.12)) when one of these independent variables are optimised then Investment will last exactly 30 years by minimising the absolute investment gap

H1: if you set an appropriate Spending Base then remaining Investment is 0 => rejected

H2: if you set an appropriate Spending Reduction then remaining Investment is 0 => rejected

Source for investment returns: https://seekingalpha.com/article/3896226-90-year-history-of-capital-market-returns-and-risks
OrangeFortune | Wealth Management when Retiring
4 3 months ago
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Verano, Mary Ann -Economic Data
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CHANGE - Angela's version
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An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.
Real Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.02
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Two households with PV systems and Electric Vehicles, sharing a battery and connected to the grid. What are the advantages?


Vehicle to Grid Simulation