MKT563 | Ashleigh Summers

Student ID: 11719557

Assignment Four | Big Data & Marketing Analytics 

Introduction 

The town of Bourke is located approximately north-west of New South Wales in Australia, set on the banks of the Darling River.

According to the 2016 Census QuickStats report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), there were 2,634 people in the local government area (LGA) of Bourke. This including, 49.5% were male, and 50.5% female. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people made up 31.5% of the population.

The LGA of Bourke provides many schools for preschool children, primary and high school students. According to the (ABS) education report, 46.9% of children are educated, and 53.1% are uneducated.  The Bourke–Walgett school of distance education offers exemplary education programs which allows preschool to year 12 children to be schooled from home.

Labelled the ‘most dangerous in world’ the town of Bourke has built a horrific reputation when it comes to crime and youth related crime. According to The Sydney Morning Herald, since 2013 the town of Bourke have been focused on improving the incarceration rates and improve prospects of their Aboriginal inhabitants.

Aboriginal leaders including, Indigenous leader Alistair Ferguson, in 2013 partnered with an independent group, Just Rienvest NSW, who advocates for the reallocation of public funds from prisons to early intervention programs to prevent youth crime.

A report assessment by KPMG in 2018 found the new approach had saved $3.1million in 2017 alone. From here, Police began involved in employment strategies for youth to prevent idleness that leads to crime.

This focus has since moved from law and order of youth behaviour to the social and economic decisions that motivate these children to begin with. Since this change and extra support from the Aboriginal community, the crime rate in Bourke began to drop.

The Model

The model is designed to identify the key indicators of crime in Bourke town and how it is linked with the Youth education/Drop outs. The model is further developed to identify the crime rate from school dropouts with a break up of repeated crime history details. Later, the model is strengthened by identifying the development areas to reduce the crime numbers. The major programs considered are Back to school and employment opportunities which are backed up by community funds. Finally, the result is indicated of reduction in crime rate by providing the opportunities to youth at all stages.

Assumptions

1. Bourke town population 1000
2. Youth population is assumed at 30% out of total population.  
3. Youth are either employed or unemployed. 
4. Further the population is divided into 2 main categories: Adult and Youth population. 
5. The model is represented by taking stocks, variables and flows/transitions to connect. 
6. The list of stocks and variables are represented as follows:

 Stocks

1. Bourke Population
2. Adult Population
3. Youth population
4. Educated population in youth segment
5. Dropouts in youth segment
6. Unemployed in educated segment
7. Crime population from Dropout segment
8. Crime population from Offender segment
9. Convicted
10. Repeat crime from the convicted
11. New crime
12. Released youth from detained
13. Community programs for youth
14. Employment (opportunities program)
15. Educated (Back to school program)

Variables

The Crime and Community Funds support are the variables created to show the impact on the stocks

1. Crime commits
2. Crime Rate
3. Community funds

Conclusion

The model is created to show the importance of the Community fund support to Bourke youth by providing the employment opportunities and back to school program to reduce the crime and help the youth to build the better future.

 

References

ABS, A. B. (2016). Bourke, NSW. Retrieved from Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS: https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

Alexander, H. (2019, May 29). How NSW town labelled 'most dangerous in world' changed its destiny. Retrieved from The Sydney Morning Herald : https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-nsw-town-labelled-most-dangerous-in-world-changed-its-destiny-20190527-p51ri6.html

Bourke, V. (2020). Visit Bourke. Retrieved from Visit Bourke : http://www.visitbourke.com.au/

Education, N. D. (2020). Learning from home. Retrieved from Bourke-Walgett School of Distance Education: https://bourkewalg-d.schools.nsw.gov.au/learning-at-our-school/learning-from-home.html

KPMG. (2016). Unlocking the Future, Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project in Bourke, Preliminary Assessment. NSW: KPMG.

KPMG. (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project, Impact Assessment. NSW: KMPG; Just Reinvet NSW, Maranguka Community Hub. Retrieved from https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf

NSW, J. R. (2020). KPMG Report shows changes in Bourke had economic impact of $3.1m in 2017 & estimates $7m additional over 5 years. Retrieved from Just Reinvest NSW: https://www.justreinvest.org.au/landmark-report-demonstrates-economic-impact-of-3-1-million-in-2017-and-estimates-additional-impact-of-7-million-over-five-years-through-justice-reinvestment-in-bourke/

Overview of Part E Ch 20 to 24 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Model-SIM from Chapter 3 of Wynn Godley and Marc Lavoie's Monetary Economics, adapted for an open economy. The model is stock-flow consistent with only government money--no bills or bonds. No central bank and interest rates do not change. Government spends buying output from the production sector. The production sector is passive turning over all revenue over to households. Households save out of income and spend partially spend out of wealth. Imports and exports pass through the production sector illustrating the idea that consumer households buy from domestic businesses that which they have imported. The model also tracks the sectoral balance flows and changes in equity. Sectoral flows and equity balances match each other dollar for dollar to satisfy the sectoral balances accounting identity (Household Saving - Consumption) + (Business Saving - Expenditure) + (Taxes - Government Spending) - (Exports - Imports) = 0. Since business investment occurs internally to the Business Sector, 

Barangay IRAWAN Systems Model

System Zoo Z409 Fishery dynamics from Hartmut Bossel (2007) System Zoo 2 Simulation Models. Climate, Ecosystems, Resources

Based on oid 2016 report to be compared with the Just Justice Framework WIP insight

From Walrave ISDC2014 paper Counteracting the success trap in publically owned corporations. Similar to the ordinary (efficiency focussed) and dynamic capabilities (explore) insight described by David Teece

This initial version of the model began with a look at identifying through research the base level components of the proposed model.  This was done with an eye toward development of a 'Big Map' of the general territory of potential addi-ins and elements.

A causal loop diagram illustrating solutions for the homelessness problem

In this Insight I focus on the demand site of the Market and Price model, leaving the supply side out.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

This is a first attempt to illustrate the interconnected nature of the economic assets of Roswell - Chaves County