A framework exploring flood risk management in a developing city, under the old paradigm of control - characterised by narrowly defined goals and an over-reliance on hard-engineered structural solutions.

Relationships between conceptual dimensions of economic development, based on the International Economic Development Council’s definition for economic development which states:

This Model described the outbreak simulation under government policy and impacts on Economics.

Difficulties with formulae and links

Any activity  requires the use of energy. Economic activity is not possible without energy,  especially fossil fuels. An increase in economic activity necessarily leads to an increase in the use  fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there will   be a commensurate increase in waste products, pollution and heat. This is dictated by the laws of physics and unavoidable.  A problem arise when the cost of this degeneration caused by continual economic growth surpasses the benefit society derives from it. The ecological economist Professor Herman Daly (2014) explained that when the impact on the ecosystem is correctly measured, global growth has reached a point where the total private and social costs of economic growth outweigh the private and social benefits. In other words, more economic growth is making global society worse off overall - growth has become uneconomic! The model shows that eventually pressures will build up that counteract the perennial belief that all social ills can be solved with economic growth. 

This Model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Enposed, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationships between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its impact upon the economy as well as well-being of residents. 

Assumptions:

Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;

Government Policies affect the economy and the COV-19 infection negatively at the same time;

Government Policies can be divided as 4 categories, which are Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban, and Hygiene Level, and they represented strength of different aspects;

 

Parameters:

Policies like Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban all have different weights and caps, and they add up to 1 in total;

 

There are 4 cases on March 9th; 

Ro= 5.7  Ro is the reproduction number, here it means one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people;

Interesting Insights:

Economy will grow at the beginning few weeks then becoming stagnant for a very long time;

Exposed people are significant, which requires early policies intervention such as social distancing.

This model demonstrates the intertwining relationship between the economic contribution of industrial logging and that of adventure tourism (dominated by mountain biking).

In terms of the revenue from industrial logging at Derby, it is driven by demand of timber and the timber price. However, the forest resources are limited, which will put constraints on the expansion of industrial logging due to regrowth rate and existing forestation.

The tourism can bring economic benefits to Derby from hospitality and selling tickets to local adventure activities. The hospitality income can be determined by the average length of holidaying at Derby and average local pricing for accommodation, food and beverages and related essentials. Tickets sales are largely affected by the similar factors such as average expense per activity and average number of activities that tourists usually choose. Having explained the streams of possible income from the tourism, the key driver for tourism income is the desire or demand to travel. Unlikely logging, tourism is renewable and perpetual. However, logging can be conceived as a major constraint on attracting as many tourists as the economy so desires.

This is because deforestation caused by logging will diminish the natural scenery at Derby and in turn, the tourist operations and attractions based upon natural scenery. Loss of forest resources is likely to make Derby less attractive to visitors.

In short, the tourism and logging both provides economic benefits to Derby but in a competing relationship. However, the sustainability possessed by tourism cannot be rivaled by industrial logging in long term. Logging revenue reveals its advantage at inception of observed time period. Such advantage wears out over the time due to reduction in resources and sluggish regrowth. Eventually. the tourism income turns into the major player. To understand how they co-exist, please simulate the model. 

From Walrave ISDC2014 paper Counteracting the success trap in publically owned corporations. Similar to the ordinary (efficiency focussed) and dynamic capabilities (explore) insight described by David Teece

Explanation of the Model

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

first draft with forked supply demand example intact

This model illustrates the current practice and consequences of government spending. Following the direction of the arrows from right to left the model shows the following sequence based on current practice:

Government Spending at a certain point leads to spending in excess of tax receipts. This will automatically lead to the issue of treasuries in the belief that the excess spending must be financed by borrowing (although the government has the capacity to create  money). This in turn will increase the national debt.

 Consequences that follow from this practice:

1) That national debt increases whenever the government spends in excess of tax receipts.

2) That the government must pay interest on the debt issued, which in turn increases and reinforces the need for government spending.

3) That the interest paid on treasuries will increase private sector income.

There is an alternative view, supported by Modern Monetary Theory, of how government spending can proceed. Please see this  Insight: 

https://insightmaker.com/insight/19954

Michael Marmot's Eur J Epidemiol Essay 2017 See also IM-62760  Social determinants of health from Michael Marmot's  ABC 2016 Boyer Lectures on Social Justice and the Health Gap

A base level model to outline the impact of a mesh network on a community