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Theory of Structural Change for IAMO Research Group

The part-whole paradigm

Examples of research issues addressed here include the path dependence of farm structures, regime shifts in land-system change, as well as transitional processes in the evolution of farm structures and innovation systems. All these issues feature counter-intuitive systemic properties that could not have been predicted using standard agricultural economics tools. The key strength of the research group in regard to the part-whole paradigm is the internationally renowned expertise in the agent-based modelling of agricultural policy. (More on what happened here until now / is happening now)

The system-environment paradigm

This paradigm is represented by conceptual research drawing inspiration from Niklas Luhmann’s theory of “complexity-reducing” and “operationally closed” social systems. The attributes of complexity reduction and operational closure are shown to generate sustainability problems, conflicts, social dilemmas, ethical issues, and divergent mental models. The organizing idea explaining these phenomena is the complexity-sustainability trade-off, i.e., the tendency of the operationally closed systems to develop excessive internal complexity that overstrains the carrying capacity of the environment. Until now, the conceptual work along these lines has focused on developing the systems-theoretic principles of ecological degradation and highlighted the sustainability-enhancing role of nonprofit organizations and corporate social responsibility. Another overarching topic has been the analysis of connections between Luhmann’s social systems theory and the evolutionary economics approaches, such as those of Thorstein Veblen and Kenneth Boulding.

Structure Change Model - IAMO

Steve Wallis

Description for Each Simulation Tag:

CRISIS:

- Price increasing dramatically, surpasses average detached home price of 3 million in 3 years if left unaddressed

- Housing Demand by potential buyer population will increase due to unmet financial means (Interest rate and price too high). To secure housing, the outflow is linked to price that is affected by supply and demand.

- Total occupied homes will decrease as empty homes purchased by foreign investors for "house flipping" increase and doubles within 5 years.

DEMAND:

- Demand for housing in Vancouver will increase, but the amount of people motivated to buy with financial means "buyer population", will decrease in correlation.

SUPPLY:

- Prices do not follow traditional supply and demand concepts. Supply of houses on the market is increasing but, as shown, unable to sell because of unaffordability.

SYSTEMS MODEL LOGISTICS:

- Split into demand and supply with interlinked links

- Supply is a feedback system with sold houses branching off into empty housing or occupied housing

- All flows and stocks are linked with the intention that as market price changes, so will various system dynamics

- Used various functions to simulate a more diverse and accurate system

Sustainability: Economic (prices, housing market), Social (motivation to buy and sell)

Crisis Model - Vancouver Housing Crisis

Ray C

Initial Stock & Flow of Energy Infrastructure Development, Climate Change Impacts, and Economic Activity

Victoria Yanco

3

Shared Team Narrative Diagram

Justin

12 9 months ago

Simple mock-up model of how prioritizing various push-pull factors impacts the size of the immigrant population over time as well as economic benefits to the U.S. economy.

Immigrant Populations and Policy Implications

Kelsi Caywood

Economic Cost-Benefit Analysis- Roadkill Mitigation

Lindsey Ohlin

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Lindsey Graham's economic policy based on the information at: http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/restore-fiscal-discipline/ http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/ease-tax-and-regulatory-burdens/ http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/achieve-energy-independence/ http://www.lindseygraham.com/issue/reform-entitlements/ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

DRAFT IPA of Lindsey Graham Economic Policy

Steve Wallis

State Goverment Fiscal Policy model

Eli Levine

Modern industrial civilisation has created massive interdependencies which define it and without which it could not function. We all depend on industrial farming to produce the food we eat, we depend on gasoline being available at the gas station, on the availability of electricity and even on the bread supplied by the local baker. Naturally, we tend to support the institutions that supply the amenities and goods to which we have become accustomed: if we get our food from the local supermarket, it is likely that we would be opposed to it’s closure. This means that the economic system that relies on continuous growth enjoys implicit societal support and that nothing short of environmental disaster or a shortage of essential raw materials will impede it’s growing indefinitely. It is not hard to work out the consequences of this situation!

Clone of The Inescapable Dynamic of Economic Growth (Version 2)

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Circular equations WIP for Runy.

Added several versions of the model. Added a flow to make C increase. Added a factor to be able to change the value 0.5. Older version cloned at IM-46280

Clone of Circularity in Economic models

Runy Calmera

Socio-Economic Factors

Jenya Bogopolskiy

Economic Model

Stella Mosher

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Coffee Pods ISD Humanities - Anouk D 10.4

Anouk de Jong

COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania Simulation Model

Introduction:

This model simulates the COVID-19 outbreak situation in Burnie and how the government responses impact local economy. The COVID-19 pandemic spread is influenced by several factors including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate and government's intervention policies.Government's policies reduce the infection spread and also impact economic activities in Burnie, especially its tourism and local businesses.

Assumptions:

- This model was built based on different rates, including infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, testing rate and economic growth rate. There can be difference between

this model and reality.

- This model considers tourism and local business are the main industries influencing local economy in Burnie.

- Government's intervention policies will positive influence on local COVID-19 spread but also negative impact on local economic activity.

- When there are more than 10 COVID-19 cases confirmed, the government policies will be triggered, which will brings effects both restricting the virus spread and reducing local economic growth.

- Greater COVID-19 cases will negatively influence local economic activities.

Interesting Insights:

Government's vaccination policy will make a important difference on restricting the infection spread. When vaccination rate increase, the number of deaths, infected people and susceptible people all decrease. This may show the importance of the role of government's vaccination policy.

When confirmed cases is more than 10, government's intervention policies are effective on reducing the infections, meanwhile local economic activities will be reduced.

BMA708-Tian Liang-586868-Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

Tian Liang

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.01

Kevin Collins

372

Case 1

April Rose Alpha

Food Waste Problem

Hanna Schenkel

The Logistic Map is a polynomial mapping (equivalently, recurrence relation) of degree 2, often cited as an archetypal example of how complex, chaotic behaviour can arise from very simple non-linear dynamical equations. The map was popularized in a seminal 1976 paper by the biologist Robert May, in part as a discrete-time demographic model analogous to the logistic equation first created by Pierre François Verhulst.

Mathematically, the logistic map is written

where:

is a number between zero and one, and represents the ratio of existing population to the maximum possible population at year n, and hence x0 represents the initial ratio of population to max. population (at year 0)r is a positive number, and represents a combined rate for reproduction and starvation.
For approximate Continuous Behavior set 'R Base' to a small number like 0.125To generate a bifurcation diagram, set 'r base' to 2 and 'r ramp' to 1
To demonstrate sensitivity to initial conditions, try two runs with 'r base' set to 3 and 'Initial X' of 0.5 and 0.501, then look at first ~20 time steps

The Logistic Map

Guy Lakeman

26

Socio-economic

Taylor Gariepy

Regulation of resource allocation to production in response to inventory adequacy and delivery delay. A non-price-mediated resource allocation system. From Sterman JD Business Dynamics p172 Fig 5-27

Availability Balancing Loops

Geoff McDonnell

From Neil WIlson and Steve Keen's double entry accounting view of the money circuit model

Bank money flows

Geoff McDonnell

Economic capital growth in a system constrained by a non-renewable resource, Figure 37 from Thinking in Systems by Donella H. Meadows

Economic Capital Growth - Resource Constrained

Paradox Consulting

20

Archetype: Success to the successful

The more pioneer seed being sold, the more corn is grown. As more corn is grown, the more pioneer seeds are needed for the next harvest. More people began using the pioneer seeds, less people used the Ghanaian seeds. However, the pioneer seed is expensive, so not everyone could buy the pioneer seed. The more people using Ghanaian corn seeds, less people were using pioneer seeds.

Way out:

The best way out of this would probably be to lower the price of the pioneer seed. The pioneer seed produces more corn that is sweeter. People prefer this corn over the corn from the Ghanaian seeds. More people are using the pioneer seeds, so gradually Ghanaian seeds will no longer be used. Lowering the price of pioneer seeds will make it available to more farmers. This way, less farmers will go out of business from trying to compete with more sweeter corn.

Sources:

Randall, R. (2014, December 15). Are African farmers in danger of becoming slaves to patented seeds? | Genetic Literacy Project. Retrieved January 18, 2016, from https://www.geneticliteracyproject.org/2014/12/15/are-african-farmers-in-danger-of-becoming-slaves-to-patented-seeds/

Is 4-H trying to hook African farmers on costly seeds? (2014, November 17). Retrieved January 18, 2016, from http://grist.org/food/is-4-h-trying-to-hook-african-farmers-on-costly-seeds/

Butler, K. (n.d.). How America's favorite baby-goat club is helping Big Ag take over farming in Africa. Retrieved January 18, 2016, from http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/11/4h-africa-farming-dupont-hybrid-seeds

4-H Club in Africa - Economical

Scarlet Benoit Kesley

This model simulates the economics of buying a home. It was created to compare buying a home against using investment returns to pay for rent.

Try cloning this insight, setting the parameter values for real-world scenarios, and then running sensitivity analysis (see tools) to determine the likely wealth outcomes. Compare buying a home to renting. Note that each run will keep the parameters the same while simulating market volatility.

version 1.8

Home buying simulation 1.8

Larry Lee

5