I propose we grow this sim model (or similar) over time to help ourselves better understand the opposing investment and austerity strategies now being advocated for the U.S. government. The hope is to build as simple a model as possible that subsumes the major underlying feedback loops that probably exist in the mental models of proponents of each of these positions. Starting this model was inspired by this Investment vs. Austerity discussion http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Investment-vs-Austerity-How-can-4582801.S.157876413

The Logistic Map is a polynomial mapping (equivalently, recurrence relation) of degree 2, often cited as an archetypal example of how complex, chaotic behaviour can arise from very simple non-linear dynamical equations. The map was popularized in a seminal 1976 paper by the biologist Robert May, in part as a discrete-time demographic model analogous to the logistic equation first created by Pierre François Verhulst. 

Mathematically, the logistic map is written

where:

 is a number between zero and one, and represents the ratio of existing population to the maximum possible population at year n, and hence x0 represents the initial ratio of population to max. population (at year 0)r is a positive number, and represents a combined rate for reproduction and starvation.
For approximate Continuous Behavior set 'R Base' to a small number like 0.125To generate a bifurcation diagram, set 'r base' to 2 and 'r ramp' to 1
To demonstrate sensitivity to initial conditions, try two runs with 'r base' set to 3 and 'Initial X' of 0.5 and 0.501, then look at first ~20 time steps

​BACKGROUND:

Description for Each Simulation Tag:

Projeto  de investimentos , custos   e viabilidade econômico de LCC

A planta foi dimensionada para produzir 9.000 Ton/ano da Resina usando o matéria prima

LCC , operando 24h/dia, durante os três turnos por 300 dias/anuais. O preço do produto de projeto de lcc 

veja  o prova html aula passados 

1. Calcule o investimento em planta (If) usando o método rápido e investimento em

equipamento (Ie) baseado no método de lang. Admita valor de N e f1 de acordo com o fluxograma do processo.

Dados fornecidos: Entrada (alimentação)-sólido; Saída-líquido;

Equipamentos principais da produção: Destilador e fermentador.

2. Calcule o investimento fixo total pelo método chilton através das estimativas dos investimentos fixos diretos: Tubulação, instrumentação, estrutura física, planta de serviço e conexões entre unidades; e investimentos fixos indiretos. Tome como base o investimento em equipamentos.

             veja dados na prova html   simulados sobre fator chiltons , modelos  de lang , decico , chiltons e dados na prova html 

3. Calcule o custo de mão-de- obra direta e indireta baseando-se no fluxograma de processo , atualizando  o valor salário mínimo e nos salários:

Valor do salário mínimo = R$180,00

Engenheiro químico = 10 salários mínimos

Operador industrial = 3 salários mínimos

Administração:

Gerente = 8 salários mínimos

Auxiliar de escritório = 3 salários mínimos

Secretária = 2 salários mínimos

Dados fornecidos: Considere os encargos sociais de 65% sobre o salário base. Mão-de- obra

indireta seja 20% da mão-de- obra direta. O custo de mão-de- obra indireta engloba

manutenção.

4. Calcule os custos fixos abaixo, baseando-se pelo método Sebrae:

Dados 

4.1 Depreciação = 10%If

4.2 Manutenção = 3%If

4.3 Seguro = 1%If

4.4 Imposto = 2%If

5. Calcule o custo de consumo anual de matéria-prima de acordo com os dados  , veja prova html a seguir 

5.2 Calcule o custo unitário de matéria prima sendo 80% do valor do custo total anual da

matéria-prima. , dados  , veja na link enunciados  e prova html 

6. Calcule os custos totais:

6.1 Encargos anuais

6.2 Administração = 0.6 (mão-de- obra direta + mão-de- obra indireta + encargos anuais)

6.3 Suprimentos = 0.15 (Manutenção)

6.4 Calcule os custos fixos

6.5 Calcule os custos variáveis

6.6 Calcule os custos variáveis

* Os custos fixos englobam administração

Custo variável = custo de matéria – prima + custo de utilitários + custo de suprimentos.

Custo de suprimentos é 10% da mão-de- obra direta.

Depreciação = 10% do investimento fixo.

7. Estimar o ponto de equilíbrio em quantidade e em porcentagem baseado em dados obtidos de custo variável unitário) e Custo fixo do problema 06.

8. Estime os itens da análise de investimento:

– Taxa de retorno de engenharia simples

– Tempo de retorno

– % de lucro em relação ao preço de venda

– Lucro após o imposto de renda

– Lucratividade

– Rentabilidade

– Fluxo de caixa

9. Estimar potencial econômico de projeto de perdas devido ao baixo rendimento de operação em nível de 90% de rendimento máximo em vez de 98%.

 

 Dados de  consumos de  materiais e energia obtidos  via uso de calculadora usando    quiz html de modelos já apresentados aula passos

This model simulates the economics of buying a home. It was created to compare buying a home against using investment returns to pay for rent.

Description

Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions

The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.

Parameters

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.

Covid-19 outbreak's parameter

Fixed parameters: Infection rate, Background disease, recovery rate.

Adjusted parameter: Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters

Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters

Fixed parameter: Tourism

Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.

A framework exploring flood risk management in a developing city, under the old paradigm of control - characterised by narrowly defined goals and an over-reliance on hard-engineered structural solutions.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

This model indicate indicates the modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government policies with the effect on the local economy. Model was occurred at Burnie, Tasmania. The model mainly contains three parts: COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, four differences government policies and what the impact on economy from those policies.

 

Assumptions:

(1) Various variables influence the model, which can result in varied outcomes. The following values are based on an estimate and may differ from actual values. Government initiatives are focused at reducing Covid-19 infections and, as a result, affecting (both positive and negative) economic growth.

 

(2) 42% of infected people will recovery. 10% of people who are infected will die and the rate relatively higher due to the much old people living in Burnie, Tasmania.

78% of cases get tested.

 

(3) Government policy will only be implemented when there are ten or more recorded cases. Four government policies have had influences on infection.  

 

(4) The rising number of instances will have a negative impact on Burnie's economic growth.

 

Insights:

1. As a result of the government's covid 19 rules, fewer people will be vulnerable. Less people going to be susceptible.

 

2. After the government policy intervention, there is a effectively reduce of infected people.

 

3. Overall, there is no big differences of economic performance from the graph, might due to the positive and negative effect of economy. And after two weeks, the economy maintained a level of development without much decline.

First Basic Macro economic model

WIP Based on Steve Keen's Inaugural Kingston Lecture Youtube video slides models and data all at his blog