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HANDY Model of Societal Collapse from Ecological Economics Paper 
see also D Cunha's model at IM-15085 (Spanish)
Human and Nature Dynamics of Societal Inequality
19 10 months ago
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A simple fund flow simulation
Funds Flow
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I propose we grow this sim model (or similar) over time to help ourselves better understand the opposing investment and austerity strategies now being advocated for the U.S. government. The hope is to build as simple a model as possible that subsumes the major underlying feedback loops that probably exist in the mental models of proponents of each of these positions. Starting this model was inspired by this Investment vs. Austerity discussion http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Investment-vs-Austerity-How-can-4582801.S.157876413

20120908a_InvestmentVsAusterity
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This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Rick Perry's economic policy based on the information at: https://rickperry.org/issues/​ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
DRAFT IPA of Rick Perry economic policy
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Economic BPA/BPS Model
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Pathways Causal Loop - Health
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Biodiversity-Habitat Loss
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Economic model
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ESI6550 Group 6 (Model 2)
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This version of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available).  Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format.  Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs.  This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics.  Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature.
Provided further interest and funding, this  basic capability model may further de-abstracted and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.
Version 6A: Calibrated Student-Home-Teachers-Classroom
3 4 months ago
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INTRODUCTION

This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID 19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure) affect the local economy.  This model has 13 positive loops and seven negative loops.  Government response is dependent on the number of reported COVID-19 cases which in turn thought to be dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered from COVID 19 and dead. Economic activity is dependent on the economic growth rate, increased in online shopping, increased in unemployment, number of people who do not obey the rules, COVID 19 cases and health policies.

 ASSUMPTIONS

 · Both infection and economic growth is reduced by enforcing government policies

 · However, the negative effect of government policies is reduced by the number of people who do not obey government health policies

 · Govt policies are enforced when the reported COVID-19 case are 10 or greater.

 ·     Number of COVID cases reported is dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered and dead.

 ·   The higher number of COVID-19 cases have a negative effect on local economy. This phenomena is known as negative signalling. 

 ·   Government policies have a negative effect on economic activity because health policies limit both social and economic activities which directly or indirectly affect the economy in Burnie .  

 ·  This negative effect is somewhat reduced by the increase in online shopping and the number of people who do not obey heath rules.

 INTERESTING INSIGHTS

The test ratings seem to play a vital role in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. Higher Rates of COVID testings decrease the number of COVID 19 deaths and number of infected. This is because higher rates of testing accelerate the government involvement (as the government intervention is triggered earlier, 10 COVID cases mark is reached earlier). Delaying the government intervention by reducing the COVID testing rates increases the death rates and number of infected. 

Increased testing rates allow the figures (deaths, susceptible, infected) to reach a plateau quickly. 





BMA708- Shakila Bethmage- 548351 - COVID 19 Outbreak in Burnie
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Rich Picture Supply Chain
11 months ago
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Overview of Part G Ch 27 to 30 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview
History of Macroeconomic Thought
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This is an evolving attempt to illustrate the interconnected nature of the economic assets of Roswell - Chaves County
RCC economic model 1.1
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Economic Capital
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Economic Systems
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Based on G.P. Cimellaro et al. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 3639–3649 paper

Facilities Disaster Resilience
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I made this model to simulate how a companies revenue will change depending on the lifetime of the appliances it manufactures, in combination with the ratio of repair costs and price. It also shows the accumulation of e-waste.
Simulatie apparaten
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From Neil WIlson and Steve Keen's double entry accounting view of the money circuit model

Bank money flows
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This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Marco Rubio's economic policy based on the information at: https://marcorubio.com/issues/debt/   The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: ​ http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf
DRAFT IPA of Marco Rubio economic policy
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Regulation of resource allocation to production in response to inventory adequacy and delivery delay. A non-price-mediated resource allocation system. From Sterman JD Business Dynamics p172 Fig 5-27

Availability Balancing Loops
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Map of SD work on Samuelson's 1939 model of the business cycle. See also D-memo D-2311-2 Gilbert Low 1976 and IM-165713. An alernative to the Ch 26 Macroeconomics textbook exposition.  From Gil Low's Multiplier Accelerator Model of Business Cycles, Ch 4 of Elements of the System Dynamics Method Book edited by Jorgen Randers 1976 (MIT Press) and 1980 (Productivity Press)
Samuelson multiplier accelerator model
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3. PROBLEMAS e  PERGUNTAS SOBRE  projetos de SISTEMA INTEGRADO DE GESTÃO CUSTOS , INVESTIMENTOS BASEADO MODELOS MATEMÁTICOS: veja  https://docs.google.com/document/d/1oGmItBcErhVF0PWuI37AnpP3n8Up3Zu45W7QB1MMbcY/edit?usp=sharing

Projeto  de investimentos , custos   e viabilidade econômico de LCC

A planta foi dimensionada para produzir 9.000 Ton/ano da Resina usando o matéria prima

LCC , operando 24h/dia, durante os três turnos por 300 dias/anuais. O preço do produto de projeto de lcc 

veja  o prova html aula passados 


1. Calcule o investimento em planta (If) usando o método rápido e investimento em

equipamento (Ie) baseado no método de lang. Admita valor de N e f1 de acordo com o fluxograma do processo.

Dados fornecidos: Entrada (alimentação)-sólido; Saída-líquido;

Equipamentos principais da produção: Destilador e fermentador.

2. Calcule o investimento fixo total pelo método chilton através das estimativas dos investimentos fixos diretos: Tubulação, instrumentação, estrutura física, planta de serviço e conexões entre unidades; e investimentos fixos indiretos. Tome como base o investimento em equipamentos.

             veja dados na prova html   simulados sobre fator chiltons , modelos  de lang , decico , chiltons e dados na prova html 


3. Calcule o custo de mão-de- obra direta e indireta baseando-se no fluxograma de processo , atualizando  o valor salário mínimo e nos salários:

Valor do salário mínimo = R$180,00

Engenheiro químico = 10 salários mínimos

Operador industrial = 3 salários mínimos

Administração:

Gerente = 8 salários mínimos

Auxiliar de escritório = 3 salários mínimos

Secretária = 2 salários mínimos

Dados fornecidos: Considere os encargos sociais de 65% sobre o salário base. Mão-de- obra

indireta seja 20% da mão-de- obra direta. O custo de mão-de- obra indireta engloba

manutenção.

4. Calcule os custos fixos abaixo, baseando-se pelo método Sebrae:

Dados 

4.1 Depreciação = 10%If

4.2 Manutenção = 3%If

4.3 Seguro = 1%If

4.4 Imposto = 2%If

5. Calcule o custo de consumo anual de matéria-prima de acordo com os dados  , veja prova html a seguir 

5.2 Calcule o custo unitário de matéria prima sendo 80% do valor do custo total anual da

matéria-prima. , dados  , veja na link enunciados  e prova html 

6. Calcule os custos totais:

6.1 Encargos anuais

6.2 Administração = 0.6 (mão-de- obra direta + mão-de- obra indireta + encargos anuais)

6.3 Suprimentos = 0.15 (Manutenção)

6.4 Calcule os custos fixos

6.5 Calcule os custos variáveis

6.6 Calcule os custos variáveis

* Os custos fixos englobam administração

Custo variável = custo de matéria – prima + custo de utilitários + custo de suprimentos.

Custo de suprimentos é 10% da mão-de- obra direta.

Depreciação = 10% do investimento fixo.

7. Estimar o ponto de equilíbrio em quantidade e em porcentagem baseado em dados obtidos de custo variável unitário) e Custo fixo do problema 06.


8. Estime os itens da análise de investimento:

– Taxa de retorno de engenharia simples

– Tempo de retorno

– % de lucro em relação ao preço de venda

– Lucro após o imposto de renda

– Lucratividade

– Rentabilidade

– Fluxo de caixa

9. Estimar potencial econômico de projeto de perdas devido ao baixo rendimento de operação em nível de 90% de rendimento máximo em vez de 98%.

 

 Dados de  consumos de  materiais e energia obtidos  via uso de calculadora usando    quiz html de modelos já apresentados aula passos





NOME E DESCRIÇÃO

LINK

TAMANHO

Prova1validacao.:Investimento Fixo e Tomada de Decisões Rápidas

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184101

33 KB

Prova.2 Validacao .Investimento fixo método Lang

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184144

32 KB

Prova 3 :Investimento Fixo método Chilton

ihttps://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184169


33 KB

Prova4:Custo Fixo

https://canvas.instructure.com/courses/780776/files/folder/provahtml?preview=51184189

32 KB

Prova 5::Custo de mao de obra

customaohtm custo de mao de obra

33 KB

Prova 6 Validao : Custo de mat,comb e enegia

CustoMat prima , energia

34 KB

Prova 7 Custo total

custo de operacional  de  producao

33 KB

Prova 8 Ponto deEquilibrio 

ponto de eqilibrioibrio

32 KB

Prova 9:Analise de lucro e beneficios

Fluxo de caixa

33 KB




gestao economical planta resina fenolicas lcc .Modelos e resultados validados validado via planilhas
Insight diagram
Laying out and testing before coupling to main model (which is Final Project)
Socio-Economic Factors