Projeto  de investimentos , custos   e viabilidade econômico de LCC

A planta foi dimensionada para produzir 9.000 Ton/ano da Resina usando o matéria prima

LCC , operando 24h/dia, durante os três turnos por 300 dias/anuais. O preço do produto de projeto de lcc 

veja  o prova html aula passados 

1. Calcule o investimento em planta (If) usando o método rápido e investimento em

equipamento (Ie) baseado no método de lang. Admita valor de N e f1 de acordo com o fluxograma do processo.

Dados fornecidos: Entrada (alimentação)-sólido; Saída-líquido;

Equipamentos principais da produção: Destilador e fermentador.

2. Calcule o investimento fixo total pelo método chilton através das estimativas dos investimentos fixos diretos: Tubulação, instrumentação, estrutura física, planta de serviço e conexões entre unidades; e investimentos fixos indiretos. Tome como base o investimento em equipamentos.

             veja dados na prova html   simulados sobre fator chiltons , modelos  de lang , decico , chiltons e dados na prova html 

3. Calcule o custo de mão-de- obra direta e indireta baseando-se no fluxograma de processo , atualizando  o valor salário mínimo e nos salários:

Valor do salário mínimo = R$180,00

Engenheiro químico = 10 salários mínimos

Operador industrial = 3 salários mínimos

Administração:

Gerente = 8 salários mínimos

Auxiliar de escritório = 3 salários mínimos

Secretária = 2 salários mínimos

Dados fornecidos: Considere os encargos sociais de 65% sobre o salário base. Mão-de- obra

indireta seja 20% da mão-de- obra direta. O custo de mão-de- obra indireta engloba

manutenção.

4. Calcule os custos fixos abaixo, baseando-se pelo método Sebrae:

Dados 

4.1 Depreciação = 10%If

4.2 Manutenção = 3%If

4.3 Seguro = 1%If

4.4 Imposto = 2%If

5. Calcule o custo de consumo anual de matéria-prima de acordo com os dados  , veja prova html a seguir 

5.2 Calcule o custo unitário de matéria prima sendo 80% do valor do custo total anual da

matéria-prima. , dados  , veja na link enunciados  e prova html 

6. Calcule os custos totais:

6.1 Encargos anuais

6.2 Administração = 0.6 (mão-de- obra direta + mão-de- obra indireta + encargos anuais)

6.3 Suprimentos = 0.15 (Manutenção)

6.4 Calcule os custos fixos

6.5 Calcule os custos variáveis

6.6 Calcule os custos variáveis

* Os custos fixos englobam administração

Custo variável = custo de matéria – prima + custo de utilitários + custo de suprimentos.

Custo de suprimentos é 10% da mão-de- obra direta.

Depreciação = 10% do investimento fixo.

7. Estimar o ponto de equilíbrio em quantidade e em porcentagem baseado em dados obtidos de custo variável unitário) e Custo fixo do problema 06.

8. Estime os itens da análise de investimento:

– Taxa de retorno de engenharia simples

– Tempo de retorno

– % de lucro em relação ao preço de venda

– Lucro após o imposto de renda

– Lucratividade

– Rentabilidade

– Fluxo de caixa

9. Estimar potencial econômico de projeto de perdas devido ao baixo rendimento de operação em nível de 90% de rendimento máximo em vez de 98%.

 Dados de  consumos de  materiais e energia obtidos  via uso de calculadora usando    quiz html de modelos já apresentados aula passos

Assignment 3 – Complex Systems

 Ryan Salvaggio - 43668070

The Model

This model conceptualizes the effects on a real-estate market-model utilizing agent based modelling. This model utilizes basic economic principles of supply and demand.

The model bases itself on two Agents - one being ‘Customers’ of the real estate market model, whilst the other being the Real estate itself, coined 'Houses'.

Consumers (Demand)

The Agent population, ‘Consumers’ specifies the total amount of people whom can potentially become buyers within the market. This is limited to 30 for conceptual purposes. The Agent ‘Consumer’ exists in two states, either being an ‘Active Customer’ (Active) or an ‘Inactive Customer’ (Inactive).  The transition from Inactive to Active occurs upon the basis that the ‘Budget’ of the Consumer meets the desired price of the marketplace, this is specified through the variable ‘Budget’ defining the probability that this transition will occur – this is adjustable by the user indicating a highly resistive or by accepting the market. ‘Budget’s probability in a real life scenario would be based upon numerous factors however conceptually utilizing the slider can present many of these various situations.

Upon transitioning into an active state an ‘Active consumer’ will attempt to find the closest ‘For sale household’, this is represented and carried out through the ‘Enter’ action.  Upon finding a household the consumer and house will both return to their respected inactive state thus repeating the process.

Demand – ‘Count of active customers – demand’ is then calculated by a count of Consumers transitioned and currently in the Active state. A high demand would be indicative through a high ‘Budget’ responsiveness whilst a low demand would be indicative of a low ‘Budget’ responsiveness. The increase in Price and hence supply of household thus reduces demand and vise versa.  

House (Supply)

The Agent population, ‘Houses’ specifies the total amount of households that can potentially become for sale within the market. This is limited to 112 for conceptual purposes. The Agent ‘House’ exists in two states, either being ‘For Sale’ (Active) or ‘Not for Sale’ (Inactive).  The transition from Inactive to Active occurs upon the basis that the ‘Motivation to Sell’ of the House is satisfied, this satisfaction is specified by a set probability that this transition will occur – this is adjustable by the user indicating a highly responsive or restricted house market. ‘Motivation to sell’ probability in a real life scenario would be based upon numerous factors however conceptually utilizing the slider can present many of these various situations.

Upon transitioning into an active state a ‘For Sale’ house will wait for an ‘Active Customer’ ‘this is represented and carried out through the ‘Search’ action. Upon completion of the action both states become inactive and the process continues.

Supply – ‘Count of houses for sale –supply’ is then calculated by a count of Houses ‘For Sale’ that are currently in the active state. Ultimately a high Motivation to sell would sharply increase supply, whilst a low motivation would have the adverse effects.  

Movement Speed

Movement speed – describes the base movement rate of Consumers. This variable describes the transition into the ‘Inactive’ state of a consumer, ultimately when a household is found and purchased. Movement speed affects both demand and supply in the sense that the transitioning of stages is quickened and more responsive. (Indicated by a more rigid demand and supply curve).

Market Price

In economics Price is a linear function (straight line) of the proportion of houses for sale (positive slope), and also a linear function of the proportion of buyers (negative slope).Therefore , the variable ‘Market Price’ is calculated by 10 * the portion of ‘House’ in the active state (which is the supply) over the portion of ‘Consumers’ in the active state (which is the demand) Ultimately this presents the economic principles  that as Supply is directly related to Price and demand is inversely related to Price.

Note

Each simulation (with the same settings) will present a different and unique simulation. I have set a Random Boolean to the active component that randomizes the amount of Customers or houses that begin in their active state. The probability is only 0.008 but is useful in describing the effects on the market from various position’s and seeing unique models.  

References

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynuoZQbqeUg - Your First ABM/Part II

https://insightmaker.com/insight/35714/Foraging-Model

Economic capital growth in a system constrained by a non-renewable resource, Figure 37 from Thinking in Systems by Donella H. Meadows

There is plenty of empiric evidence to show that this has happened time and time again. For instance, a report from UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) found that between 1990 and 2000 in all the  cases examined where cutbacks in public spending and tax increases were used, the fiscal situation did not only not improve but worsened. Despite such repeated evidence, unfortunately calls for  austerity measures continue to be heard.