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GSGS_GREECE_GERMANY_MIGRATION_DRAFT

Dennis Hadjimichael

29 3 months ago

Study of the self-and all the rest society

Economic Insight

Bala Subramanian

This model simulates a COVID outbreak occurring at Burnie, Tasmania. It links the extent to the pandemic with governments intervention policies aiming to limit the spread of the virus. The other part of the model illustrates how will the COVID statistics and the government enforcement jointly influence the economic environment in the community. A number of variables are taken into account, indicating positive or negative relationship in the infection and the economy model respectively.

Assumptions

· Government takes responsive actions when the number of acquired cases exceeds 10.

· Government’s prompt actions, involving closure of the state border, lockdown within the city, plans on mandatory vaccination and testing, effectively control the infection status.

· Economic activities are reduced due to stagnation in statewide tourism, closure of brick-and-mortar businesses, and increased unemployment rate, as results of government restrictions.

Insights

Government’s rapid intervention can effectively reduce the infected cases. The national vaccination rollout campaign raises vaccination rate in Australians, and particularly influence the death rate in the infection model. Please drag the slider of vaccination to a higher rate and run the model to compare the outcomes.

Although local economy is negatively affected by government restriction policies, consumer demand in online shopping and government support payments neutralize the negative impact on economy and maintain the level of economic activities when infections get controlled.

Simulation model of COVID outbreak in Burnie Tasmania_Yuchen Zhang_574644

Yuchen Zhang

Marine Tourism Task III - Great Blue Hole

Emma Malte Larsen

From Oatley 2014 p214++

Balance-of-Payments Adjustment

Even though the current and capital accounts must balance each other, there is no assurancethat the millions of international transactions that individu- als, businesses, and governments conduct every year will necessarily produce this balance. When they don’t, the country faces an imbalance of payments. A country might have a current-accountdeficit that it cannotfully finance throughcapital imports, for example, or it might have a current-accountsur- plus thatis not fully offset by capital outflows. When an imbalancearises, the country must bring its payments back into balance. The process by which a country doessois called balance-of-payments adjustment. Fixed and floating exchange-rate systems adjust imbalances indifferent ways.

In a fixed exchange-rate system, balance-of-payments adjustment occurs through changes in domestic prices. We can most readily understand this ad- justmentprocess through a simple example. Suppose there are only two coun- tries in the world—the United States and Japan—and supposefurther that they maintain a fixed exchange rate according to which $1 equals 100 yen. The United States has purchased 800 billion yen worth of goods, services, and financial assets from Japan, and Japanhas purchased $4 billion of items from the United States. Thus, the United States has a deficit, and Japan a surplus, of $4billion.

This payments imbalance creates an imbalance between the supply of and the demandfor the dollar and yen in the foreign exchange market. American residents need 800 billion yen to pay for their imports from Japan. They can acquirethis 800 billion yen by selling $8 billion. Japanese residents need only $4 billion to pay for their imports from the United States. They can acquire the $4 billion by selling 400billion yen. Thus, Americanresidentsareselling $4 billion more than Japanese residents want to buy, and the dollar depreci- ates againstthe yen.

Because the exchangerateis fixed, the United States and Japan must prevent this depreciation. Thus, both governmentsintervenein the foreign exchange market, buying dollars in exchange for yen. Intervention has two consequences.First, it eliminates the imbalance in the foreign exchange mar- ket as the governments provide the 400billion yen that American residents need in exchange forthe $4 billion that Japanese residents do not want. With the supply of each currency equalto the demandin the foreign exchange mar- ket, the fixed exchangerate is sustained. Second, intervention changes each country’s money supply. The American moneysupply falls by $4 billion, and Japan’s moneysupplyincreases by 400billion yen.

The change in the money supplies alters prices in both countries. The reduc- tion of the U.S. money supply causes Americanpricesto fall. The expansion of the money supply in Japan causes Japanese prices to rise. As American prices fall and Japanese prices rise, American goods becomerelatively less expensive than Japanese goods. Consequently, American and Japaneseresidents shift their purchases away from Japanese products and toward American goods. American imports (and hence Japanese exports) fall, and American exports (and hence Japanese imports) rise. As American imports (and Japanese exports) fall and American exports (and Japanese imports) rise, the payments imbalanceis elimi- nated. Adjustment underfixed exchange rates thus occurs through changesin the relative price of American and Japanese goods brought about by the changes in moneysupplies caused by intervention in the foreign exchange market.

In floating exchange-rate systems, balance-of-payments adjustment oc- curs through exchange-rate movements. Let’s go back to our U.S.—Japan sce- nario, keeping everything the same, exceptthis time allowing the currencies to float rather than requiring the governments to maintain a fixed exchangerate. Again,the $4 billion payments imbalance generates an imbalancein the for- eign exchange market: Americansare selling more dollars than Japanese resi- dents want to buy. Consequently, the dollar begins to depreciate against the yen. Because the currencies are floating, however, neither governmentinter- venesin the foreign exchange market. Instead, the dollar depreciates until the marketclears. In essence, as Americans seek the yen they need, they are forced to accept fewer yen for each dollar. Eventually, however, they will acquire all of the yen they need, but will have paid more than $4 billion for them.

The dollar’s depreciation lowers the price in yen of American goods and services in the Japanese market andraises the price in dollars of Japanese goodsandservices in the American market. A 10 percent devaluation of the dollar against the yen, for example, reduces the price that Japanese residents pay for American goods by 10 percentandraises the price that Americans pay for Japanese goods by 10 percent. By making American products cheaper and Japanese goods more expensive, depreciation causes American imports from Japan to fall and American exports to Japan to rise. As American exports expand and importsfall, the payments imbalanceis corrected.

In both systems, therefore, a balance-of-payments adjustment occurs as prices fall in the country with the deficit and rise in the country with the surplus. Consumers in both countries respond to these price changes by purchasing fewer of the now-more-expensive goods in the country with the surplus and more of the now-cheaper goodsin the country with the deficit. These shifts in consumption alter imports and exports in both countries, mov- ing each of their payments back into balance. The mechanism that causes these price changes is different in each system, however. In fixed exchange- rate systems, the exchange rate remains stable and price changes are achieved by changing the moneysupplyin orderto alter prices inside the country. In floating exchange-rate systems, internal prices remain stable, while the change in relative prices is brought about through exchange-rate movements.

Contrasting the balance of payments adjustment process under fixed and floating exchangerates highlights the trade off that governments face between

exchangerate stability and domestic price stability: Governments can have a stable fixed exchangerate or they can stabilize domestic prices, but they cannotachieve both goals simultaneously. If a government wants to maintain a fixed exchangerate, it must accept the occasional deflation and inflation caused by balance-of-payments adjustment. If a governmentis unwilling to accept such price movements,it cannot maintain a fixed exchangerate. This trade-off has been the central factor driving the international monetary system toward floating exchange rates during the last 100 years. We turn now to examine howthis trade-off first led governmentsto create innovativeinter- national monetary arrangements following World WarII and then caused the system to collapse into a floating exchange-rate system in the early 1970s.

Oatley's balance of payments

Jan Baykara

Socio-Economic Factors

Jenya Bogopolskiy

Michael Marmot's Eur J Epidemiol Essay 2017 See also IM-62760 Social determinants of health from Michael Marmot's ABC 2016 Boyer Lectures on Social Justice and the Health Gap

Social Justice, Epidemiology and Health Inequalities

Geoff McDonnell

Social pressures create {Youth Alienation}, leading to youth developing bad behaviours and committing crimes. This attracts {Police Enforcement} who will, in turn, engage the {Community Leadership} where they introduce programs that are designed to assist youth to prevent re-offending through the development of {Community Clubs}, which then contributes to {Community Development}.

{Police Enforcement} collaborates with {Educational Institutions} to boost retention, which translates to socio-economic progress through {Community Development}. On the other hand, criminals are detained and put through the {Court} system, where the offenders are removed from the community through {Imprisonment}. This results in a stable and safe environment, which aid support for {Community Development).

The role of {Community Leadership} in the system, particularly at the grassroots will result is huge savings in the economy, aiding economic growth. The {Community Leadership} collaborates with the {Employment & Justice Agencies}, translating into socio-economic progress {Community Development}

The Community Development Model

This model provides an understanding into the relationships and links between a range of variable units and fixed units, and how {Community Development} is supported.

As {Youth Alienation} rate increases, the {Crime} rate increases (both variables) demands police enforcement. {Police Enforcement} is a fixed variable as increase in police force is fixed over a period of time.

To increase efficiency, engages or collaborate with:

•{Community Leadership} (fixed and variable) – is fixed for a certain period, and becomes variable as youth criminal activities increases

•{Court} (variable) – as youth criminal activities increase, the court resources reman fixed. It then removes some offenders from the community and imprison them, creating peace and stability in the community

•{Educational Institutions} (variables) – as student retention increases, more institutions are needed.

Variables that are linked to the {Community Leadership} which include;

•{Youth Sports Clubs}

•{Employment & Justice Agencies}

•{Economic Preservation; and}

•{Educational Institutions}

Contribute/support {Community Development}. These are variables, as more youths are referred or engaged.

The {Community Leadership} and {Police Enforcement} collaborate, support and design community programs to reduce youth criminal activities, which could potentially reduce the justice system expenditure.

The relationship between these fixed and variable units create a sustainable Community Development.

The Community Development Model

Marshiah Mupinyuri

Circular equations WIP for Runy.

Added several versions of the model. Added a flow to make C increase. Added a factor to be able to change the value 0.5. Older version cloned at IM-46280

Clone of Circularity in Economic models

Runy Calmera

Format: Given pre-conditions when independent variables(s) then dependent variable

Given Earnings Decline (0.25), Spending Variance (55), Initial Investment (500) and Rate of Return (RandNormal(0.06, 0.12)) when one of these independent variables change then how sensitive is Investment (22) over a 30 year time period (-1,000)

H1: if you Earn more then Investment will last much longer => rejected

H2: if you Spend less then Investment will last much longer => accepted

H3: if your Initial Investment is higher then Investment will last much longer => accepted

H4: if you reduce your Spend when Investments are declining then Investment will last much longer => accepted

Given Earnings Decline (0.25), Spending Variance (55), Initial Investment (500) and Rate of Return (RandNormal(0.06, 0.12)) when one of these independent variables are optimised then Investment will last exactly 30 years by minimising the absolute investment gap

H1: if you set an appropriate Spending Base then remaining Investment is 0 => rejected

H2: if you set an appropriate Spending Reduction then remaining Investment is 0 => rejected

Source for investment returns: https://seekingalpha.com/article/3896226-90-year-history-of-capital-market-returns-and-risks

OrangeFortune | Wealth Management when Retiring

Agile Chris

4 4 months ago

Causal loop representations of macroeconomics taken from the System Dynamics literature contrasted with Forrester's main analysis of social and business organization layers See also Saeed's Forrester Economics IM-183285

Macroeconomics causal loop diagrams

Geoff McDonnell

8 4 months ago

Model Explanation:

This system dynamics model visualises the impact on investment into policing and community engagement resources on the crime rates within the youth population of Bourke, NSW.
The model also adds in the variable of funding for safe houses. With a high rate of domestic violence, unfavorable home conditions and other socio-economic factors, many youth roam the streets with no safe place to go, which may lead to negative behaviour patterns.

Assumptions

Youth Population: 700
Total youth population in 2016 for Bourke LGA was 646 (ages 10-29). (Census, 2016) Figures rounded to 700 for purposes of this model simulation.

Constants:
70% registration and engagement rates for Community funded programs
30% attendance rate for Safe Houses
50% crime conviction rate

Variables

Positive and Negative Influences

The model shows a number of key variables that lead youth to become more vunerable to commit a crime (such as alienation, coming from households with domestic violence, boredom and socio-economic disadvantages such as low income), as well as the variables that enhance the youth's likelihood to be a contributing member of the community (developing trusted relationships and connections with others, and having a sense of self worth, purpose and pride in the community). These factors (positive and negative) are aggregated to a single rate of 50% each for the purposes of the simulation, however each individual situation would be unique.

Police Funding / Resources

Police funding and resources means the number of active police officers attending to criminal activities, as well as prevention tactics and education programs to reduce negative behaviour. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease policing levels to view the impact on conviction rates. Current policing levels are approx 40 police to a population of under 3000 in Bourke.

Crime Rate

Youth crime rates in Australia were 3.33% (2016). Acknowledging Bourke crime rates are much higher than average, a crime rate of 40% is set initially for this model, but can be varied using the sliders.

Community Program Funding / Resources

Community Program Funding and Resources means money, facilities and people to develop and support the running of programs such as enhancing employability through mentorship and training, recreational sports and clubs, and volunteering opportunities to give back to the community. As engagement levels in the community programs increase, the levels of crime decrease. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease funding levels to view the impact on youth registrations into the community programs.

Observations

Ideally the simulations should show that an increase in police funding reduces crime rates over time, allowing for more youth committing crimes to be convicted and subsequently rehabilitated, therefore decreasing the overall levels of youth at risk.

A portion of those youth still at risk will move to the youth not at risk category through increased funding of safe houses (allowing a space for them to get out of the negative behaviour loop and away), whom them may consider registering into the community engagement programs. An increase in funding in community engagement programs will see more youth become more constructive members of the community, and that may in turn encourage youth at risk to seek out these programs as well by way of social and sub-cultural influences.

Justice & Community Support Investment and the Impacts on Bourke Youth Population

Sarah Vassallo

5

This model is developed to simulate how Burnie can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19 considering health and economic outcomes. The time limit of the simulation is 100 days when a stable circumstance is reached.

Stocks

There are four stocks involved in this model. Susceptible represents the number of people that potentially could be infected. Infected refers to the number of people infected at the moment. Recovered means the number of people that has been cured, but it could turn into susceptible given a specific period of time since the immunity does not seem everlasting. Death case refers to the total number of death since the beginning of outbreak. The sum of these four stocks add up to the initial population of the town.

Variables

There are four variables in grey colour that indicate rates or factors of infection, recovery, death or economic outcomes. They usually cannot be accurately identified until it happen, therefore they can be modified by the user to adjust for a better simulation outcome.

Immunity loss rate seems to be less relevant in this case because it is usually unsure and varies for individuals, therefore it is fixed in this model.

The most interesting variable in green represents the government policy, which in this situation should be shifting the financial resources to medical resources to control infection rate, reduce death rate and increase recovery rate. It is limited from 0 to 0.8 since a government cannot shift all of the resources. Bigger scale means more resources are shifted. The change of government policy will be well reflected in the economic outcome, users are encouraged to adjust it to see the change.

The economic outcome is the variable that roughly reflects the daily income of the whole town, which cannot be accurate but it does indicate the trend.

Assumptions:

The recovery of the infected won't happen until 30 days later since it is usually a long process. And the start of death will be delayed for 14 days considering the characteristic of the virus.

Economic outcome will be affected by the number of infected since the infected cannot normally perform financial activities.

Immunity effect is fixed at 30 days after recovery.

Interesting Insights:

In this model it is not hard to find that extreme government policy does not result in the best economic outcome, but the values in-between around 0.5 seems to reach the best financial outcome while the health issues are not compromised. That is why usually the government need to balance health and economic according to the circumstance.

New outbreak of COVID-19 in Burnie

Hank

The World Socio-Economics model is computer model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the earth and human systems based on the World3 model by the work of Club of Rome, The Limits to Growth[1].

The World3 model builds by system dynamics theory that is has an approach to understanding the nonlinear behaviour of complex systems over time using stocks, flows, feedback loops, table functions and time delays.

The Limits to Growth concludes that, without substantial changes in resource consumption, "the most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity".

Since the World3 model was originally created, it has had minor tweaks to get to the World3-91 model used in the book Beyond the Limits[2], later improved to get the World3-03 model used in the book Limits to Growth: the 30 year update[3].

References;

[1] Meadows, Donella H., Meadows, Dennis L., Randers, Jørgen., Behrens III, William W (1972). The Limits to Growth.

[2] Meadows, Donella H., Dennis L. Meadows, Randers, Jørgen., (1992). Beyond the limits: global collapse or a sustainable future.

[3] Meadows, Dennis., Randers, Jørgen., (2004). The limits to growth: the 30-year update.

World Socio-Economics model 2000-2100

滑川英樹

48

Pathways Causal Loop - Health

Mandy Ableidinger

9

Case 1

April Rose Alpha

This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.

It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.

Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.

On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.

Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreaks and economic impacts_Pui Chu Daisy Cheung 524767

Lin Ling

This model is designed for the local government of Burnie, Tasmania, aiming to help with balancing COIVD-19 and economic impacts during a possible outbreak.

The model has been developed based upon the SIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model used in epidemiology.

It lists several possible actions that can be taken by the government during a COVID-19 outbreak and provide the economic impact simulation.

The model allow users to Change the government policies factors (Strength of Policies) and simulate the total economic impact.

Interestingly, the government plicies largely help with controlling the COVID outbreak. However, the stronger the policies are, the larger impact on local economy

Burnie Covid Model, Zilin Huang 533476

Zilin Huang

Model-SIM from Chapter 3 of Wynn Godley and Marc Lavoie's Monetary Economics, adapted for an open economy. The model is stock-flow consistent with only government money--no bills or bonds. No central bank and interest rates do not change. Government spends buying output from the production sector. The production sector is passive turning over all revenue over to households. Households save out of income and spend partially spend out of wealth. Imports and exports pass through the production sector illustrating the idea that consumer households buy from domestic businesses that which they have imported. The model also tracks the sectoral balance flows and changes in equity. Sectoral flows and equity balances match each other dollar for dollar to satisfy the sectoral balances accounting identity (Household Saving - Consumption) + (Business Saving - Expenditure) + (Taxes - Government Spending) - (Exports - Imports) = 0. Since business investment occurs internally to the Business Sector,

SFC_Model-SIM_open_economy

Aaron Medlin

3 weeks ago

Description for Each Simulation Tag:

CRISIS:

- Price increasing dramatically, surpasses average detached home price of 3 million in 3 years if left unaddressed

- Housing Demand by potential buyer population will increase due to unmet financial means (Interest rate and price too high). To secure housing, the outflow is linked to price that is affected by supply and demand.

- Total occupied homes will decrease as empty homes purchased by foreign investors for "house flipping" increase and doubles within 5 years.

DEMAND:

- Demand for housing in Vancouver will increase, but the amount of people motivated to buy with financial means "buyer population", will decrease in correlation.

SUPPLY:

- Prices do not follow traditional supply and demand concepts. Supply of houses on the market is increasing but, as shown, unable to sell because of unaffordability.

SYSTEMS MODEL LOGISTICS:

- Split into demand and supply with interlinked links

- Supply is a feedback system with sold houses branching off into empty housing or occupied housing

- All flows and stocks are linked with the intention that as market price changes, so will various system dynamics

- Used various functions to simulate a more diverse and accurate system

Sustainability: Economic (prices, housing market), Social (motivation to buy and sell)

Crisis Model - Vancouver Housing Crisis

Ray C

I propose we grow this sim model (or similar) over time to help ourselves better understand the opposing investment and austerity strategies now being advocated for the U.S. government. The hope is to build as simple a model as possible that subsumes the major underlying feedback loops that probably exist in the mental models of proponents of each of these positions. Starting this model was inspired by this Investment vs. Austerity discussion http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Investment-vs-Austerity-How-can-4582801.S.157876413

20120908a_InvestmentVsAusterity

Paul Newton

Simple model of the global economy, the global carbon cycle, and planetary energy balance.

The planetary energy balance model is a two-box model, with shallow and deep ocean heat reservoirs. The carbon cycle model is a 4-box model, with the atmosphere, shallow ocean, deep ocean, and terrestrial carbon.

The economic model is based on the Kaya identity, which decomposes CO2 emissions into population, GDP/capita, energy intensity of GDP, and carbon intensity of energy. It allows for temperature-related climate damages to both GDP and the growth rate of GDP.

This model was originally created by Bob Kopp (Rutgers University) in support of the SESYNC Climate Learning Project.

Clone of Simple Climate-Carbon-Economic Model

Ana Belén Ríos CArmona

SSM Lionfish Management PT2 revised with Storytelling

RRamos

3 months ago

Scott Page's Aggregation diagram from Complexity and Sociology 2015 article see also IM-9115 and SA IM-1163

Macro micro dynamics

Geoff McDonnell