Find Insights | Insight Maker

MKT563 | Ashleigh Summers

Student ID: 11719557

Assignment Four | Big Data & Marketing Analytics

Introduction

The town of Bourke is located approximately north-west of New South Wales in Australia, set on the banks of the Darling River.

According to the 2016 Census QuickStats report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), there were 2,634 people in the local government area (LGA) of Bourke. This including, 49.5% were male, and 50.5% female. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people made up 31.5% of the population.

The LGA of Bourke provides many schools for preschool children, primary and high school students. According to the (ABS) education report, 46.9% of children are educated, and 53.1% are uneducated. The Bourke–Walgett school of distance education offers exemplary education programs which allows preschool to year 12 children to be schooled from home.

Labelled the ‘most dangerous in world’ the town of Bourke has built a horrific reputation when it comes to crime and youth related crime. According to The Sydney Morning Herald, since 2013 the town of Bourke have been focused on improving the incarceration rates and improve prospects of their Aboriginal inhabitants.

Aboriginal leaders including, Indigenous leader Alistair Ferguson, in 2013 partnered with an independent group, Just Rienvest NSW, who advocates for the reallocation of public funds from prisons to early intervention programs to prevent youth crime.

A report assessment by KPMG in 2018 found the new approach had saved $3.1million in 2017 alone. From here, Police began involved in employment strategies for youth to prevent idleness that leads to crime.

This focus has since moved from law and order of youth behaviour to the social and economic decisions that motivate these children to begin with. Since this change and extra support from the Aboriginal community, the crime rate in Bourke began to drop.

The Model

The model is designed to identify the key indicators of crime in Bourke town and how it is linked with the Youth education/Drop outs. The model is further developed to identify the crime rate from school dropouts with a break up of repeated crime history details. Later, the model is strengthened by identifying the development areas to reduce the crime numbers. The major programs considered are Back to school and employment opportunities which are backed up by community funds. Finally, the result is indicated of reduction in crime rate by providing the opportunities to youth at all stages.

Assumptions

Bourke town population 1000
Youth population is assumed at 30% out of total population.
Youth are either employed or unemployed.
Further the population is divided into 2 main categories: Adult and Youth population.
The model is represented by taking stocks, variables and flows/transitions to connect.
The list of stocks and variables are represented as follows:

Stocks

Bourke Population
Adult Population
Youth population
Educated population in youth segment
Dropouts in youth segment
Unemployed in educated segment
Crime population from Dropout segment
Crime population from Offender segment
Convicted
Repeat crime from the convicted
New crime
Released youth from detained
Community programs for youth
Employment (opportunities program)
Educated (Back to school program)

Variables

The Crime and Community Funds support are the variables created to show the impact on the stocks

Crime commits
Crime Rate
Community funds

Conclusion

The model is created to show the importance of the Community fund support to Bourke youth by providing the employment opportunities and back to school program to reduce the crime and help the youth to build the better future.

References

ABS, A. B. (2016). Bourke, NSW. Retrieved from Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS: https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

Alexander, H. (2019, May 29). How NSW town labelled 'most dangerous in world' changed its destiny. Retrieved from The Sydney Morning Herald : https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-nsw-town-labelled-most-dangerous-in-world-changed-its-destiny-20190527-p51ri6.html

Bourke, V. (2020). Visit Bourke. Retrieved from Visit Bourke : http://www.visitbourke.com.au/

Education, N. D. (2020). Learning from home. Retrieved from Bourke-Walgett School of Distance Education: https://bourkewalg-d.schools.nsw.gov.au/learning-at-our-school/learning-from-home.html

KPMG. (2016). Unlocking the Future, Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project in Bourke, Preliminary Assessment. NSW: KPMG.

KPMG. (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project, Impact Assessment. NSW: KMPG; Just Reinvet NSW, Maranguka Community Hub. Retrieved from https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf

NSW, J. R. (2020). KPMG Report shows changes in Bourke had economic impact of $3.1m in 2017 & estimates $7m additional over 5 years. Retrieved from Just Reinvest NSW: https://www.justreinvest.org.au/landmark-report-demonstrates-economic-impact-of-3-1-million-in-2017-and-estimates-additional-impact-of-7-million-over-five-years-through-justice-reinvestment-in-bourke/

Conceptual model of youth alienation, police and community development in the Town of Bourke, NSW | Assignment Four | MKT563

Ashleigh Summers

Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen. THis can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.

Minsky Financial Instability Model

John Vorhauer

3

The upper diagram shows the principal factors that have an influence on the budget deficit and indicates what needs to be done to correct it. But this is not the full story. The diagram below shows that cutting public expenditure reduces aggregate demand and increases unemployment. The reduction of aggregate demand reduces economic activity which has the effect of reducing tax revenue. In addition, the state has to pay out funds as there is a need for more unemployment benefit payments. The result of these austerity measures is often the opposite of their intended purpose: they can increase rather than decrease the budget deficit.

There is plenty of empiric evidence to show that this has happened time and time again. For instance, a report from UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) found that between 1990 and 2000 in all the cases examined where cutbacks in public spending and tax increases were used, the fiscal situation did not only not improve but worsened. Despite such repeated evidence, unfortunately calls for austerity measures continue to be heard.

Fallacy of Spending Cuts

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Adapted from Fig 12.1 p.476 of the Book James A. Forte ( 2007), Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice; Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-9

Economic Theory Map

Geoff McDonnell

THE NEW SCIENCE OF PLEASURE Daniel L. McFadden NBER Working Paper 18687

From Extended Neoclassical to Behavioral Choice Models

Geoff McDonnell

3

The model here shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie Tasmania, which has impacted in the local economy. the relationship between COVID-19 and economic situation has been shown in the graph. Based on the susceptible analysis, people who usual go out are might have chance to meet susceptible people and have a high rate to be infected. The period of spreading can be controlled by keeping social distance and Government lockdown policy.

Susceptible can be exposed by go out. resident has a possibility to infect and be infected by others. people who might be die due to the lack of immunity. and others would recover and get the immune.

Beside, the economy situation is proportionate to the recovery rate. If there are more recovery rate from the pandemic, the employment rate will be increased and the economy situation will recover as well.

BMA708 Assignment 3

Yifei MAO

This causal loop diagram illustrates the interconnected factors affecting the economic empowerment of Congolese refugee women in Rwanda, with economic dependency as the central problem reinforced by limited access to vocational training, employment opportunities, and financial services. The diagram shows two key reinforcing loops: one where vocational training leads to employment and income generation, which reduces dependency and improves access to further training (R1), and another where income generation builds self-confidence and skills recognition, leading to better employment opportunities (R2), while language barriers and cultural constraints act as inhibiting factors throughout the system.

Causal Loop Diagram: Economic Empowerment of Congolese refugee women in Rwanda.

Christine

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Lab 13 Start

Gabe Bowen

232

WIP Elements from macroeconomics, neoliberalism and commercial determinants of health frameworks to provide a background to the effects of the universal basic income on health and wellbeing for the first 1000 days. UBI diagram modified from Johnson2021 article Expanded in Insight 2

Employment and Welfare Interventions Effect on the first 1000 days 1

Geoff McDonnell

EcoCinco_Deforestation_Land Changes

FU CHUANBAO _

9 months ago

Correlation of National Electrification with Internal and External Influence Factors

Manik Mahajan

วช

meng

This initial version of the model began with a look at identifying through research the base level components of the proposed model. This was done with an eye toward development of a 'Big Map' of the general territory of potential addi-ins and elements.

Big Map

Robert L. Brown

32

WIP Summary of Davies 2017 article from special Theory Culture and Society issue on Elites and Power after Financialization

Elite Power under Advanced Neoliberalism

Geoff McDonnell

This is a first attempt to illustrate the interconnected nature of the economic assets of Roswell - Chaves County

RCC economic model

Jens Deichmann

Fig 4. The Casual Loop Diagram of the Socio-Political and Economic Subsystems

Rony Zhu

Fons

M. Koot

State Goverment Fiscal Policy model

Eli Levine

Introduction:

This simulation model demonstrates the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie, Tasmania and how the corresponding government’s responses affect the spreading of Covid-19. Meanwhile, this model also shows how the economy in Burnie is influenced by the impacts of both Covid-19 and government policies.

Variables:

This simulation contains some relevant variables as follow:

Variables in Covid-19 outbreaks: (1) Infection rate, (2) Recovery rate, (3) Death rate, (4) Immunity loss rate

Variables in Government policies: (1) Vaccination rate, (2) Lockdown, (3) Travel ban, (4)Quarantine

Variables in Economy: (1) E-commerce business, (2) Unemployment rate, (3) Economic growth rate.

Assumption:

Government responses would be triggered when reported Covid-19 cases are at least 10.

The government policies reduce the spreading of Covid-19, but they would also limit economic development at the same time due to the negative impact of the policies on the economy is greater than the positive impact.

The increase in reported Covid-19 cases would negatively affect economic growth.

Interesting Insights:

The first finding is that the death number would keep increasing even though the infection rate has decreased, but with stronger government policies (such as implementing a coefficient over 25%), no more death numbers will occur caused by Covid-19.

The second finding is that as government policies limit business activities, with the increasing number of reported Covid-19 cases, economic growth will suffer a severe blow even if e-commerce grows, it can’t make up for this economic loss.

BMA 708 assignment 3 - simulation model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania