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Based on Emery Roe's Nov 2024 Pastoralists presentation slides posted on his mess and reliability blog When Complex is as Simple as it gets..

Reliability Professionals and Critical Infrastructures

Geoff McDonnell

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions

The government has reduced both the epidemic and economic development by controlling immigration.

Yuhao c, BMA708_Marketing insights into Big Data.

Yuhao Chen

Model-SIM from Chapter 3 of Wynn Godley and Marc Lavoie's Monetary Economics, adapted for an open economy. The model is stock-flow consistent with only government money--no bills or bonds. No central bank and interest rates do not change. Government spends buying output from the production sector. The production sector is passive turning over all revenue over to households. Households save out of income and spend partially spend out of wealth. Imports and exports pass through the production sector illustrating the idea that consumer households buy from domestic businesses that which they have imported. The model also tracks the sectoral balance flows and changes in equity. Sectoral flows and equity balances match each other dollar for dollar to satisfy the sectoral balances accounting identity (Household Saving - Consumption) + (Business Saving - Expenditure) + (Taxes - Government Spending) - (Exports - Imports) = 0. Since business investment occurs internally to the Business Sector,

SFC_Model-SIM_open_economy

Aaron Medlin

3 weeks ago

Introduction:

This model aims to show that how the Tasmania government's COVID-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policies can damage the economy.

Assumption:

Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actual situation.

The government will implement stricter travel bans and social distant policies as there are more cases.

Government policies reduce infection and limit economic growth at the same time.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.

Interesting insights:

A higher testing rate will make the infection increase and the infection rate will slightly increase as well.

Government policies are effective to lower the infection, however, they will damage the local economy. While the higher number of COVID-19 cases also influences economic activities.

Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie_Guoyu Shen

Guoyu Shen

Pathways Causal Loop - Health

Mandy Ableidinger

9

I propose we grow this sim model (or similar) over time to help ourselves better understand the opposing investment and austerity strategies now being advocated for the U.S. government. The hope is to build as simple a model as possible that subsumes the major underlying feedback loops that probably exist in the mental models of proponents of each of these positions. Starting this model was inspired by this Investment vs. Austerity discussion http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Investment-vs-Austerity-How-can-4582801.S.157876413

20120908a_InvestmentVsAusterity

Paul Newton

Decarbonization Stories

Dean M

12

Clone of IM-91683 from jacqui and vincy Summary of paper map produced by participants at the compelling case for prevention workshop 6 june 2017.

Current premier version containing Story Steps and text for vincy to update.

This is clone of 97129 via Vincy.

FINAL Clone of Concept Map produced by CCP Workshop 1

Jacqueline Davison

3

there is a distributed net of independent carriers interacting geographically to build continuous supply chain. We model the dynamics of the system, assuming scarcity of available agents, under the condition that the total path must be no longer then X defined economically.

interaction between members of logistic chain

Olga Konoval

4

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Real Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.02

Elliott Hansing

Farming_small vs large

Paul

Urbanisation insight

Arshiya Sharma

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Clone of Clone of Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.02

Julia Barbian

OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

OVERSHOOT GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE

Guy Lakeman

7

ISCI 360 Project - Stage 2

Our model examines the relationship between two straw types (plastic straws and biodegradable straws) and their impact on the environment and economics. Specifically, we are interested in figuring out whether biodegradable straws are a viable solution to plastic straws.

Our model is broken down into three aspects: Social, Environmental and Economic. Color coding is used to differentiate between the different aspects and is explained below:

Turquoise represents the social aspect.

Purple represents the economic aspects.

Green represents the environmental aspects.

Blue represents other crucial stocks and flows in the model that do not necessarily fit into the three aspects above.

In our model, the Canadian population is assumed to increase steadily until a carrying capacity is reached. This can be seen in the graph as the line increases linearly before plateauing indefinitely. We assumed that we will be able to maintain the population at our carrying capacity due to technological advances.

Social Aspect:

The social aspect refers to the impact that awareness of the detrimental costs of straws can have on the usage of straws. The two flows that contribute to awareness are word of mouth (i.e. your friends and family informing you about the effects of straws and influencing you to stop using them) and media coverage (i.e. the media highlights the effects of straws). Both of these flows are dependent on the Canadian population such that 25% of the Canadian population at any time will be impacted by word of mouth or media coverage. (Side note: since word of mouth and media coverage are dependent on the Canadian population, they will plateau when the population does.) This is an arbitrary number but was chosen to show what a change in perspectives of the Canadian population can do. These flows input into an 'awareness of detrimental effects of using plastic straws' stock that reduces the number of plastic straws being used.

Plastic Straws

According to data from the United States individuals usually use 1.6 straws everyday and thus, we have assumed that to be true in Canada as well. Plastic straws start at a base value (due to the previous straw usage) and grow with the Canadian population while subtracting the awareness component of the model.

Environmental Aspect

Since the decomposition of plastic versus paper is significantly different, the amounts that accumulate in the ocean and landfills can be monitored. In addition, the impact on the environment can be monitored. Since plastic straws take longer to decompose, they have a larger impact on wildlife in the ocean than biodegradable straws. Thus, as the plastic straw usage decreases, the amount of habitat loss occurring plateaus. We have also included the aspect of clean-up in which the plastic from the ocean can be moved to the landfill. You will notice that the habitat loss plateaus but does not decrease. This is because we cannot reverse the damage we have done (without additional rigorous clean-up) but can mitigate additional damage. (Please note that clean-up affects only the stock 'Plastic Straws in the ocean' and thus, does not affect the stock 'habitat loss.' Therefore, clean-up will reduce the number of plastic straws in the ocean and indirectly affect the stock 'habitat loss.' However, it will not clean up the plastic straws already impacting 'habitat loss.')

Economic Aspect

The economic aspect monitors the amount of money it takes to make plastic straws versus biodegradable straws and the amount of money the government needs to fund ocean clean-ups. It can be seen that a the usage of plastic straws decreases, the need for clean-up money from the government decreases. However, there is a base level of damage that has already been done by us and thus, larger scale clean-ups will be needed to reverse that. In other words, smaller clean-ups will mitigate the damage we are currently doing but not reverse the damage we have already done. We can also track the cost of making each straw; it can be seen that biodegradable straws are more expensive to make.

However, the energy required to make the straws is less for biodegradable straws than plastic straws. Thus, there are trade-offs for using biodegradable straws.

Although, biodegradable straws are more expensive, they require less energy to make, decompose faster, require less funding for clean-up and impact the wildlife in the ocean to a lesser degree.

Project Stage 2

Eisha Sharda

Model based on chapter 10 (opportunity cost) of the book Modeling Dynamic Economic Systems

Opportunity cost II

Martín López Ramírez

3

Economic BPA/BPS Model

john johnson

Biodiversity-Habitat Loss

Bryan Sencaki

This high-level simulation model presented by Jay Forrester in his book World Dynamics, simulates socio-economic-environmental world system. The world Model was created in a time where pollution and other negative effects of industrialization and economic growth started to become recognized in 1970. For this exam purpose, we have rebuilt the model to do some experiments and analyze the results.

World Model1

Ali Akhlaqi

5

GSGS4610_FastFashion_FinalModel

Lanier Ellison

2 months ago

Overview:

The COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania shows the process of COVID-19 outbreak, the impacts of government policy on both the COVID-19 outbreak and the GDP growth in Burnie.

Assumptions:

We set some variables at fix rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death rate, infection rate and case impact rate, as they usually depend on the individual health conditions and social activities.

It should be noticed that we set the rate of recovery, which is 0.7, is higher than that of immunity loss rate, which is 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be reduced over time.

Adjustments: (please compare the numbers at week 52)

Step 1: Set all the variables at minimum values and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 135; Recovered – 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.

Step 2: Increase the variables of Health Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the same as step 1, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 166 (up); Recovered – 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).

So, the increase of health policy, quarantine and travel restriction will help increase recovery, decrease confirmed cases, decrease death, but also decrease GDP.

Step 3: Increase the variables of Testing Rate to 0.4, others keep the same as step 2, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 152 (down); Recovered – 243 (down); Cases – 1022 (up); Death – 17,625 (down); GDP – 824 (same).

So, the increase of testing rate will help to increase the confirmed cases.

Step 4: Change GDP Growth Rate to 0.14, Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 152 (same); Recovered – 243 (same); Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); GDP – 6,632 (up).

So, the increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will helps to improve the GDP in Burnie.

COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania - Lin Ling 523592

Lin Ling

3

Introduction:

This simulation model demonstrates the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie, Tasmania and how the corresponding government’s responses affect the spreading of Covid-19. Meanwhile, this model also shows how the economy in Burnie is influenced by the impacts of both Covid-19 and government policies.

Variables:

This simulation contains some relevant variables as follow:

Variables in Covid-19 outbreaks: (1) Infection rate, (2) Recovery rate, (3) Death rate, (4) Immunity loss rate

Variables in Government policies: (1) Vaccination rate, (2) Lockdown, (3) Travel ban, (4)Quarantine

Variables in Economy: (1) E-commerce business, (2) Unemployment rate, (3) Economic growth rate.

Assumption:

Government responses would be triggered when reported Covid-19 cases are at least 10.

The government policies reduce the spreading of Covid-19, but they would also limit economic development at the same time due to the negative impact of the policies on the economy is greater than the positive impact.

The increase in reported Covid-19 cases would negatively affect economic growth.

Interesting Insights:

The first finding is that the death number would keep increasing even though the infection rate has decreased, but with stronger government policies (such as implementing a coefficient over 25%), no more death numbers will occur caused by Covid-19.

The second finding is that as government policies limit business activities, with the increasing number of reported Covid-19 cases, economic growth will suffer a severe blow even if e-commerce grows, it can’t make up for this economic loss.

BMA 708 assignment 3 - simulation model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

Xuanze Liang

Overview:

The model shows the industry competition and relationship between Forrestry and Mountain Bike Trip in Derby, Tasmania. The aim of the simulation is to find a balance between the co-existence of these two industry.

How Does the Model Work?

Both industries will generate incomes. Firstly, income is generated from the sale of timber through logging. In addition, income is also generated from the consumption of mountain bike riders. Regarding to the Forrestry industry, people cut down trees because there is a market demand for timber. The timber is sold for profits. However, the experience of mountain biking tourism is largely affected by the low regeneration rate of trees and the degradation of the environment and landscape due to tree felling. People have better riding experiences when trees are abundant and the scenery is beautiful. People's satisfaction and expectations depend on the scenery and experience. Recommendations of past riders will also impact the tourists amount.

Interesting Insights

The income generated by logging can provide a significant economic contribution to Tasmania, but excessive logging can lead to environmental problems and a reduction in visitors. Excessive logging can lead to a decline in tourism in the mountains, which will affect tourism. Despite the importance of forestry, tourism can also provide a significant economic contribution to Tasmania. The government should find a balance between the two industries while maintaining the number of tourists.

Simulation of Derby Mountain bikes versus logging

nicole

This page provides a structural analysis of POTUS Candidate Rick Perry's economic policy based on the information at: https://rickperry.org/issues/ The method used is Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) available: http://scipolicy.org/uploads/3/4/6/9/3469675/wallis_white_paper_-_the_ipa_answer_2014.12.11.pdf

DRAFT IPA of Rick Perry economic policy

Steve Wallis