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Temperature Stress Mortality Simulator: for the older (70+ years) population of Dorset, Bournemouth and Poole, UK, using the UKCP09 SRES A1B Emission Scenario.

Temperature Stress Mortality Simulator V2.1

Chris Skelly

4

Green lines: positive relationships

Red lines: negative relationships

Spill

Julian Blanc

11 months ago

From Oatley 2014 p214++

Balance-of-Payments Adjustment

Even though the current and capital accounts must balance each other, there is no assurancethat the millions of international transactions that individu- als, businesses, and governments conduct every year will necessarily produce this balance. When they don’t, the country faces an imbalance of payments. A country might have a current-accountdeficit that it cannotfully finance throughcapital imports, for example, or it might have a current-accountsur- plus thatis not fully offset by capital outflows. When an imbalancearises, the country must bring its payments back into balance. The process by which a country doessois called balance-of-payments adjustment. Fixed and floating exchange-rate systems adjust imbalances indifferent ways.

In a fixed exchange-rate system, balance-of-payments adjustment occurs through changes in domestic prices. We can most readily understand this ad- justmentprocess through a simple example. Suppose there are only two coun- tries in the world—the United States and Japan—and supposefurther that they maintain a fixed exchange rate according to which $1 equals 100 yen. The United States has purchased 800 billion yen worth of goods, services, and financial assets from Japan, and Japanhas purchased $4 billion of items from the United States. Thus, the United States has a deficit, and Japan a surplus, of $4billion.

This payments imbalance creates an imbalance between the supply of and the demandfor the dollar and yen in the foreign exchange market. American residents need 800 billion yen to pay for their imports from Japan. They can acquirethis 800 billion yen by selling $8 billion. Japanese residents need only $4 billion to pay for their imports from the United States. They can acquire the $4 billion by selling 400billion yen. Thus, Americanresidentsareselling $4 billion more than Japanese residents want to buy, and the dollar depreci- ates againstthe yen.

Because the exchangerateis fixed, the United States and Japan must prevent this depreciation. Thus, both governmentsintervenein the foreign exchange market, buying dollars in exchange for yen. Intervention has two consequences.First, it eliminates the imbalance in the foreign exchange mar- ket as the governments provide the 400billion yen that American residents need in exchange forthe $4 billion that Japanese residents do not want. With the supply of each currency equalto the demandin the foreign exchange mar- ket, the fixed exchangerate is sustained. Second, intervention changes each country’s money supply. The American moneysupply falls by $4 billion, and Japan’s moneysupplyincreases by 400billion yen.

The change in the money supplies alters prices in both countries. The reduc- tion of the U.S. money supply causes Americanpricesto fall. The expansion of the money supply in Japan causes Japanese prices to rise. As American prices fall and Japanese prices rise, American goods becomerelatively less expensive than Japanese goods. Consequently, American and Japaneseresidents shift their purchases away from Japanese products and toward American goods. American imports (and hence Japanese exports) fall, and American exports (and hence Japanese imports) rise. As American imports (and Japanese exports) fall and American exports (and Japanese imports) rise, the payments imbalanceis elimi- nated. Adjustment underfixed exchange rates thus occurs through changesin the relative price of American and Japanese goods brought about by the changes in moneysupplies caused by intervention in the foreign exchange market.

In floating exchange-rate systems, balance-of-payments adjustment oc- curs through exchange-rate movements. Let’s go back to our U.S.—Japan sce- nario, keeping everything the same, exceptthis time allowing the currencies to float rather than requiring the governments to maintain a fixed exchangerate. Again,the $4 billion payments imbalance generates an imbalancein the for- eign exchange market: Americansare selling more dollars than Japanese resi- dents want to buy. Consequently, the dollar begins to depreciate against the yen. Because the currencies are floating, however, neither governmentinter- venesin the foreign exchange market. Instead, the dollar depreciates until the marketclears. In essence, as Americans seek the yen they need, they are forced to accept fewer yen for each dollar. Eventually, however, they will acquire all of the yen they need, but will have paid more than $4 billion for them.

The dollar’s depreciation lowers the price in yen of American goods and services in the Japanese market andraises the price in dollars of Japanese goodsandservices in the American market. A 10 percent devaluation of the dollar against the yen, for example, reduces the price that Japanese residents pay for American goods by 10 percentandraises the price that Americans pay for Japanese goods by 10 percent. By making American products cheaper and Japanese goods more expensive, depreciation causes American imports from Japan to fall and American exports to Japan to rise. As American exports expand and importsfall, the payments imbalanceis corrected.

In both systems, therefore, a balance-of-payments adjustment occurs as prices fall in the country with the deficit and rise in the country with the surplus. Consumers in both countries respond to these price changes by purchasing fewer of the now-more-expensive goods in the country with the surplus and more of the now-cheaper goodsin the country with the deficit. These shifts in consumption alter imports and exports in both countries, mov- ing each of their payments back into balance. The mechanism that causes these price changes is different in each system, however. In fixed exchange- rate systems, the exchange rate remains stable and price changes are achieved by changing the moneysupplyin orderto alter prices inside the country. In floating exchange-rate systems, internal prices remain stable, while the change in relative prices is brought about through exchange-rate movements.

Contrasting the balance of payments adjustment process under fixed and floating exchangerates highlights the trade off that governments face between

exchangerate stability and domestic price stability: Governments can have a stable fixed exchangerate or they can stabilize domestic prices, but they cannotachieve both goals simultaneously. If a government wants to maintain a fixed exchangerate, it must accept the occasional deflation and inflation caused by balance-of-payments adjustment. If a governmentis unwilling to accept such price movements,it cannot maintain a fixed exchangerate. This trade-off has been the central factor driving the international monetary system toward floating exchange rates during the last 100 years. We turn now to examine howthis trade-off first led governmentsto create innovativeinter- national monetary arrangements following World WarII and then caused the system to collapse into a floating exchange-rate system in the early 1970s.

Oatley's balance of payments

Jan Baykara

A systems model of the relationships amongst economic situation, health situations and Covid-19 in Burnie, Tasmania.

Health situation

According to exposed and go out population decreases, the population of infected decreases after a stable high cases period.

Economic situation

When the infected population decreases, the population economic recovery increases over time, then become stable after a period of time.

BMA708 Assessment 3 Complex system

Jingyi Qiu

Classical Blockchain Economics

Peter Vermette

5 months ago

Very basic stock-flow diagram of compound interest with table and graph output in interest and savings development per year. Initial deposit, interest rate, yearly deposit and withdrawal can all be modified in Dutch.

Voorraad-stroom diagram - sparen - samengestelde interest

Henny van Dongen

This simple model describes wealth accumulation. The value in income is described by the following simple equation:

simple wealth accumulation model 1.1

Larry Lee

20 9 months ago

This is a toy model of fractional reserve banking.

In the first period, there is foreign spending using domestic currency. This spending creates offshore banking reserves. The offshore bank then lends to the domestic bank. In consequence, the banking sector captures all of yield on government debt.

Banking Leverage

Neil Lancastle

Main drivers of extreme land degradation in the form of desertification in the Sahel region of Africa and major socio-economic and environmental impacts.

Sahelian Desertification

Jessica Slevin

THE NEW SCIENCE OF PLEASURE Daniel L. McFadden NBER Working Paper 18687

From Extended Neoclassical to Behavioral Choice Models

Geoff McDonnell

3

A model of the relationship among covid-19 outbreak and government policy and economic impacts.

More susceptible people results in more infected people, and then more cases. A greater number of covid-19 cases triggers unemployment and financial crisis.

COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania

ke chang

Introduction:

This model aims to show that how the Tasmania government's COVID-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policies can damage the economy.

Assumption:

Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actual situation.

The government will implement stricter travel bans and social distant policies as there are more cases.

Government policies reduce infection and limit economic growth at the same time.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.

Interesting insights:

A higher testing rate will make the infection increase and the infection rate will slightly increase as well.

Government policies are effective to lower the infection, however, they will damage the local economy. While the higher number of COVID-19 cases also influences economic activities.

Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie_Guoyu Shen

Guoyu Shen

Map of SD work on Samuelson's 1939 model of the business cycle. See also D-memo D-2311-2 Gilbert Low 1976 and IM-165713. An alernative to the Ch 26 Macroeconomics textbook exposition. From Gil Low's Multiplier Accelerator Model of Business Cycles, Ch 4 of Elements of the System Dynamics Method Book edited by Jorgen Randers 1976 (MIT Press) and 1980 (Productivity Press)

Samuelson multiplier accelerator model

Geoff McDonnell

CLD Linked to CTST

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

not a mathematical model. just a general one

impact of globalization

Venkatesan S

GSGS_GREECE_GERMANY_MIGRATION_DRAFT

Dennis Hadjimichael

7 3 weeks ago

Deforestation and Economic Development in an Underdeveloped County

Chanaphorn Silaphorn

Economic capital growth in a system constrained by a non-renewable resource, Figure 37 from Thinking in Systems by Donella H. Meadows

Clone of REM 221 Figure 37. Economic capital

Pascale Younes

Economic capital growth in a system constrained by a non-renewable resource, Figure 37 from Thinking in Systems by Donella H. Meadows

Clone of REM 221 Figure 37. Economic capital

scarlettchoueiri

The economy is a self-organizing system that needs continuous growth and a constant inflow of energy and materials in order to maintain itself. Absence of growth will make the system fragile, and economic contraction could lead very quickly to its collapse. These are characteristics of dissipative systems that apply to the free market economy. Another characteristic is that economic activity will unavoidably lead to the generation of waste heat, greenhouse gases and waste materials that the system must expel into its environment, making the system unviable in the present context of global warming and increasing oil prices.

The simplified graphic representation of the economy shows how it is basically profits that generate the funds for the resources needed to guarantee that the system can continue to grow. Loans do not fulfil this function, since loans must be repaid from profit and credit institutions will be reluctant to extend loans if they fear their profits are endangered by the inability of creditors to generate enough income to meet interest payments. So the system depends on private companies and blind market forces. However, society can no longer rely on a system that is blindly guided by the profit motive and that is to a large degree responsible for much of the environmental problems that now afflict us. The system cannot continue in its present self-reinforcing growth mode. Governments can and must step in to fulfil their responsibility and fundamentally reform a system that has become harmful and that is driven exclusively by profit.

The profit motive leads to an unsustainable situation and government intervention.

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

WIP Summary of Davies 2017 article from special Theory Culture and Society issue on Elites and Power after Financialization

Elite Power under Advanced Neoliberalism

Geoff McDonnell

Introduction:

This simulation model demonstrates the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie, Tasmania and how the corresponding government’s responses affect the spreading of Covid-19. Meanwhile, this model also shows how the economy in Burnie is influenced by the impacts of both Covid-19 and government policies.

Variables:

This simulation contains some relevant variables as follow:

Variables in Covid-19 outbreaks: (1) Infection rate, (2) Recovery rate, (3) Death rate, (4) Immunity loss rate

Variables in Government policies: (1) Vaccination rate, (2) Lockdown, (3) Travel ban, (4)Quarantine

Variables in Economy: (1) E-commerce business, (2) Unemployment rate, (3) Economic growth rate.

Assumption:

Government responses would be triggered when reported Covid-19 cases are at least 10.

The government policies reduce the spreading of Covid-19, but they would also limit economic development at the same time due to the negative impact of the policies on the economy is greater than the positive impact.

The increase in reported Covid-19 cases would negatively affect economic growth.

Interesting Insights:

The first finding is that the death number would keep increasing even though the infection rate has decreased, but with stronger government policies (such as implementing a coefficient over 25%), no more death numbers will occur caused by Covid-19.

The second finding is that as government policies limit business activities, with the increasing number of reported Covid-19 cases, economic growth will suffer a severe blow even if e-commerce grows, it can’t make up for this economic loss.

BMA 708 assignment 3 - simulation model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

Xuanze Liang

Assignment 3 – Complex Systems

Ryan Salvaggio - 43668070

The Model

This model conceptualizes the effects on a real-estate market-model utilizing agent based modelling. This model utilizes basic economic principles of supply and demand.

The model bases itself on two Agents - one being ‘Customers’ of the real estate market model, whilst the other being the Real estate itself, coined 'Houses'.

Consumers (Demand)

The Agent population, ‘Consumers’ specifies the total amount of people whom can potentially become buyers within the market. This is limited to 30 for conceptual purposes. The Agent ‘Consumer’ exists in two states, either being an ‘Active Customer’ (Active) or an ‘Inactive Customer’ (Inactive). The transition from Inactive to Active occurs upon the basis that the ‘Budget’ of the Consumer meets the desired price of the marketplace, this is specified through the variable ‘Budget’ defining the probability that this transition will occur – this is adjustable by the user indicating a highly resistive or by accepting the market. ‘Budget’s probability in a real life scenario would be based upon numerous factors however conceptually utilizing the slider can present many of these various situations.

Upon transitioning into an active state an ‘Active consumer’ will attempt to find the closest ‘For sale household’, this is represented and carried out through the ‘Enter’ action. Upon finding a household the consumer and house will both return to their respected inactive state thus repeating the process.

Demand – ‘Count of active customers – demand’ is then calculated by a count of Consumers transitioned and currently in the Active state. A high demand would be indicative through a high ‘Budget’ responsiveness whilst a low demand would be indicative of a low ‘Budget’ responsiveness. The increase in Price and hence supply of household thus reduces demand and vise versa.

House (Supply)

The Agent population, ‘Houses’ specifies the total amount of households that can potentially become for sale within the market. This is limited to 112 for conceptual purposes. The Agent ‘House’ exists in two states, either being ‘For Sale’ (Active) or ‘Not for Sale’ (Inactive). The transition from Inactive to Active occurs upon the basis that the ‘Motivation to Sell’ of the House is satisfied, this satisfaction is specified by a set probability that this transition will occur – this is adjustable by the user indicating a highly responsive or restricted house market. ‘Motivation to sell’ probability in a real life scenario would be based upon numerous factors however conceptually utilizing the slider can present many of these various situations.

Upon transitioning into an active state a ‘For Sale’ house will wait for an ‘Active Customer’ ‘this is represented and carried out through the ‘Search’ action. Upon completion of the action both states become inactive and the process continues.

Supply – ‘Count of houses for sale –supply’ is then calculated by a count of Houses ‘For Sale’ that are currently in the active state. Ultimately a high Motivation to sell would sharply increase supply, whilst a low motivation would have the adverse effects.

Movement Speed

Movement speed – describes the base movement rate of Consumers. This variable describes the transition into the ‘Inactive’ state of a consumer, ultimately when a household is found and purchased. Movement speed affects both demand and supply in the sense that the transitioning of stages is quickened and more responsive. (Indicated by a more rigid demand and supply curve).

Market Price

In economics Price is a linear function (straight line) of the proportion of houses for sale (positive slope), and also a linear function of the proportion of buyers (negative slope).Therefore , the variable ‘Market Price’ is calculated by 10 * the portion of ‘House’ in the active state (which is the supply) over the portion of ‘Consumers’ in the active state (which is the demand) Ultimately this presents the economic principles that as Supply is directly related to Price and demand is inversely related to Price.

Note

Each simulation (with the same settings) will present a different and unique simulation. I have set a Random Boolean to the active component that randomizes the amount of Customers or houses that begin in their active state. The probability is only 0.008 but is useful in describing the effects on the market from various position’s and seeing unique models.

References

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynuoZQbqeUg - Your First ABM/Part II

https://insightmaker.com/insight/35714/Foraging-Model

Assignment 3 - Ryan Salvaggio 43668070

Ryan Salvaggio

4

Economic capital growth in a system constrained by a non-renewable resource, Figure 37 from Thinking in Systems by Donella H. Meadows

Clone of REM 221 Figure 37. Economic capital

scarlettchoueiri