Solow model without external factors.

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

The term 'work' has been  used in this model in the sense of economic activity to include not only work done by people but also by machines. The model shows 8 positive feedback loops that reinforce work and the need to work. From the perspective of physics, civilisation can be described as a MECHANISM FOR USING ENERGY AND DOING WORK.  

Work, however, has some unavoidable consequences. The second law of thermodynamics tells us that any ‘work’ requires the use of energy and that DOING WORK entails the generation of WASTE HEAT. The laws of physics also tell us that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels will cause global warming. These unintended and unavoidable consequences are highlighted in the model by prominent arrows.

Can the structure of this system be changed to avoid a foreseeable collapse of civilisation?

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Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Peak oil will occur when it is too expensive to bring oil to the surface and not when reserves reach their limit. Companies must make a profit to be able to extract oil and stay in the oil business.  However, that endeavour is becoming more and more difficult because of diminishing returns. They have to dig ever deeper to get to the oil  at ever increasing costs, and the oil they find deep down is of a lesser quality.  We have now reached a point where the price needed by oil companies to make a profit and stay in business is far higher than the price  the market can bear. That price is probably about $ 100 per barrel - and rising every year! A market price o $ 100 will almost certainly cause a sharp recession and cause the price of oil to fall back beyond the point of profitability. For example, the combined profit of ExxonMobile, Chevron and Conocophillips fell from 80.4 billion in 2011 to only 3.7 billon in 2016 - see URL below. What the market can bear depends on the spending power of the mass of non-elite workers. The CLD shows the negative feedback loops that prevent oil prices to rise above the level of  affordability. If non-elite workers cannot afford the goods and services offered,  then there will be no demand for them and by extension for oil.  In this situation the market price will not the cover the cost that oil companies need to extract oil. Oil supplies will decline and so will economic activity!

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-blood-bath-continues-in-the-u-s-major-oil-industry/

I made this as an illustration of a piece of text I read in Regenerative Economics, household economics.

Simple model of the global economy, the global carbon cycle, and planetary energy balance.

WIP Overview model structures of Khalid Saeed's 2014 WPI paper Jay Forrester’s Disruptive Models of Economic Behavior  See also General SD and Macroeconomics CLDs IM-168865

This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.

WIP based mostly on Jan Toporowski 2013 vol 1 and 2018 vol 2 books on Michal Kalecki: An Intellectual Biography  

Explanation of the Model

From Walrave ISDC2014 paper Counteracting the success trap in publically owned corporations. Similar to the ordinary (efficiency focussed) and dynamic capabilities (explore) insight described by David Teece

Overview 

This model not only reveals the conflict between proposed logging of adjacent coups and Mountain bike in Derby but also simulates competition between them. The simulation model aims to investigate the potential coexistence opportunities between the mountain biking and forestry and find out the optimal point for coexistence to help improve Tasmania’s economy. 

 

How the model works 

It is recognized that the mountain biking and forestry industries can help support the Tasmanian community and strengthen the Tasmanian economy. The logging and forest sector in Derby can help the local community generate wealth and create more employment opportunities. The sector main source of income come from selling timber such as domestic and export sales. Nevertheless, the sector’s profit has decreased over the past few years on account of the weaker demand and reduced output. Accordingly, the profitability and output of the sector have fluctuated in response to the availability of timber, the timber price movements as well as the impact of changing demand conditions in downstream timber processing sectors. The slow growth rate for a timber has a negative impact on the profitability of the forestry industry and the economic contribution of this industry is set to grow slower, as there is a positive correlation between these variables. In addition, the mountain biking industry in Derby can bring a huge significant economic contribution to the local community. The revenue streams of the industry come from bike rental, accommodation, retail purchase and meals and beverages. These variables also influence the past experience which is positive correlation between reviews and satisfaction that can impact the demand for the mountain biking trails. More importantly, the low regeneration rate for a timber can have a negative impact on the landscape of the mountain biking and the tourist’s past experience that led to a decrease in the demand of tourists for the mountain biking, as the reviews and satisfaction are dependent on the landscape and past experience. It is evident that the industry not only helps the local community generate wealth through industry value addition but also creates a lot of employment opportunities. Therefore, the Mountain Bike Trails can be regarded as sustainable tourism that can help increase employment opportunities and economic contribution that can be of main economic significance to the Tasmania’s economy. Therefore, both industries can co-exist that can maximise the economic contribution to the local community and the Tasmanian economy.

Interesting Insights

It is interesting to note that the activity of cutting down trees does not influence the development of Mountain Biking industry. By lowering the prices of accommodation, food, bike rental and souvenirs, it can help increase the reviews and recommendations of Mountain Biking that will enhance the number of tourists. In this case, the Mountain Biking industry can achieve sustainable economic growth in the long-term while the economic growth rate of forestry industry will continue to decrease. 

Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.

Barangay IRAWAN Systems Model

This model also shows the operation of a simple economy. It differs from Model 1 primarily in the representation of all goods in the economy by units of measure of a higher level of abstraction. Thus, the same model can represent economies at different levels.

The simulation demonstrates how differing rates of consumption affect Savings.

This Insight Maker model illustrates the complex relationships involved in the destruction of rainforests. The reinforcing loop emphasizes the destructive cycle where economic development leads to increased deforestation, while the balancing loop highlights the negative consequences on biodiversity, climate, and economic activities, attempting to counteract the destructive forces. The model serves as a simplified representation to better understand the interconnected factors contributing to rainforest destruction and the importance of considering feedback loops in addressing environmental issues.

This model was proposed in a regulatory framework in Brazil. Its main idea is the obtainment of a dynamic control model to avoid the related parties issues on regulated public services over contract extensions. As the terminal condition of these contract extensions is NPV=0, the firms would have an incentive to contract related parties to inflate costs, and diminish their profits, in order to request a larger time extension. So, this system creates a stable "shadow" based on the 5 years before these extensions, where the company did not have such incentives.

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

Overview of Part F Ch 25 and 26 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview

The causal loops are presented to transfer values from Economic values in Capitalism to Community values in the new economy