Simple model of the global economy, the global carbon cycle, and planetary energy balance.

The term 'work' has been  used in this model in the sense of economic activity to include not only work done by people but also by machines. The model shows 8 positive feedback loops that reinforce work and the need to work. From the perspective of physics, civilisation can be described as a MECHANISM FOR USING ENERGY AND DOING WORK.  

Work, however, has some unavoidable consequences. The second law of thermodynamics tells us that any ‘work’ requires the use of energy and that DOING WORK entails the generation of WASTE HEAT. The laws of physics also tell us that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels will cause global warming. These unintended and unavoidable consequences are highlighted in the model by prominent arrows.

Can the structure of this system be changed to avoid a foreseeable collapse of civilisation?

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Barangay IRAWAN Systems Model

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

This model shows the structure and operation of a simple economy. It can represent economic systems at different levels of abstraction (e.g. a single good, a group of goods, multiple groups, & an "economy.")

This model has one significant difference from Model 4. The fractional consumption rate table serves the purpose of demonstrating the effects of changes in the fractional consumption rate (or the converse the fractional rate of saving) from 100% to less-than 100% to more-than 100%.

It demonstrates dramatically the effects of significant changes in consumption rates.

Wealth can be seen as the factories, infrastructure, goods and services the population of a nation dispose of. According to Tim Garrett,  a scientist who looks at the economy from the perspective of physics, it is existing wealth that generates economic activity and growth. This growth demands the use of energy as no activity can take place without its use. He also points out that the use of this energy unavoidably  leads to concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere.  All this, Tim Garrett says,  follows from the second law of thermodynamics.  If wealth decreases then so does economic activity and growth. The CLD tries to illustrate how wealth, ironically, now generates the conditions and feedback loops  that  may cause it to decline. The consequences are  inevitably economic  stagnation (or secular recession?). 

You can read about the connection Tim Garrett makes between 'Wealth, Economic Growth, Energy and CO2  Emissions' simply by Googling 'Tim Garrett and Economy'.

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Explanation of the Model

Modern industrial civilisation has created massive interdependencies which define it and without which it could not function. We all depend on industrial farming to produce the food we eat, we depend on gasoline being available at the gas station,  on the availability of electricity and even on the bread supplied by the local baker. Naturally, we tend to support the institutions that supply the amenities and goods to which we have become accustomed: if we get our food from the local supermarket, it is likely that we would be opposed to it’s closure. This means that the economic system that relies on continuous growth enjoys implicit societal support and that nothing short of environmental disaster or a shortage of essential raw materials will impede it’s growing indefinitely. It is not hard to work out the consequences of this situation!

WIP based mostly on Jan Toporowski 2013 vol 1 and 2018 vol 2 books on Michal Kalecki: An Intellectual Biography  

Peak oil will occur when it is too expensive to bring oil to the surface and not when reserves reach their limit. Companies must make a profit to be able to extract oil and stay in the oil business.  However, that endeavour is becoming more and more difficult because of diminishing returns. They have to dig ever deeper to get to the oil  at ever increasing costs, and the oil they find deep down is of a lesser quality.  We have now reached a point where the price needed by oil companies to make a profit and stay in business is far higher than the price  the market can bear. That price is probably about $ 100 per barrel - and rising every year! A market price o $ 100 will almost certainly cause a sharp recession and cause the price of oil to fall back beyond the point of profitability. For example, the combined profit of ExxonMobile, Chevron and Conocophillips fell from 80.4 billion in 2011 to only 3.7 billon in 2016 - see URL below. What the market can bear depends on the spending power of the mass of non-elite workers. The CLD shows the negative feedback loops that prevent oil prices to rise above the level of  affordability. If non-elite workers cannot afford the goods and services offered,  then there will be no demand for them and by extension for oil.  In this situation the market price will not the cover the cost that oil companies need to extract oil. Oil supplies will decline and so will economic activity!

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-blood-bath-continues-in-the-u-s-major-oil-industry/

Simplification of Prevention Investment Framework (private) IM See WIP integrating with economic view insight (private) and multiscale version IM private

The causal loops are presented to transfer values from Economic values in Capitalism to Community values in the new economy

Ocean/atmosphere/biosphere model tuned for interactive economics-based simulations from Y2k on.

This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.

Summary of Ch 27 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview See IM-169093 for added dynamic evolutionary economics history