Solow model without external factors.

Simplification of Prevention Investment Framework (private) IM See WIP integrating with economic view insight (private) and multiscale version IM private

Description

 

The model shows Covid-19 situations in Burnie, Tasmania. Under such circumstances, how the state government deals with the pandemic and how economy changes will be illustrated. The relationship between government policy and economic activities under Covid-19 outbreaks will be explained through different variables.

Assumptions

 

Government policy negatively affects Covid-19 outbreaks and economic activities.

Covid-19 outbreaks also has negative effects on economic growth.

 

Parameters

 

There are several fixed and adjusted variables.

 

1.     COVID-19 Outbreaks

Fixed variables: infection rate, recovery rate

Adjusted variables: immunity loss rate

 

2.     Government Policy

Adjusted variables: lockdown, social distancing, testing, vaccination

3.     Economic impact

Fixed variables: tourism

Adjusted variables: economic growth rate

 

Interesting Insights

 

Tourism seems to be the most effective way to bring back economic growth in Tasmania, and it takes time to recover from Covid-19.

 

Government policies tend to have negative influences on economic growth.

tbd

The term 'work' has been  used in this model in the sense of economic activity to include not only work done by people but also by machines. The model shows 8 positive feedback loops that reinforce work and the need to work. From the perspective of physics, civilisation can be described as a MECHANISM FOR USING ENERGY AND DOING WORK.  

Work, however, has some unavoidable consequences. The second law of thermodynamics tells us that any ‘work’ requires the use of energy and that DOING WORK entails the generation of WASTE HEAT. The laws of physics also tell us that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels will cause global warming. These unintended and unavoidable consequences are highlighted in the model by prominent arrows.

Can the structure of this system be changed to avoid a foreseeable collapse of civilisation?

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WIP Overview model structures of Khalid Saeed's 2014 WPI paper Jay Forrester’s Disruptive Models of Economic Behavior  See also General SD and Macroeconomics CLDs IM-168865

Assignment 1- Part 2 Energy Economics and Fossil Fuels

This model indicate indicates the modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government policies with the effect on the local economy. Model was occurred at Burnie, Tasmania. The model mainly contains three parts: COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, four differences government policies and what the impact on economy from those policies.

 

Assumptions:

(1) Various variables influence the model, which can result in varied outcomes. The following values are based on an estimate and may differ from actual values. Government initiatives are focused at reducing Covid-19 infections and, as a result, affecting (both positive and negative) economic growth.

 

(2) 42% of infected people will recovery. 10% of people who are infected will die and the rate relatively higher due to the much old people living in Burnie, Tasmania.

78% of cases get tested.

 

(3) Government policy will only be implemented when there are ten or more recorded cases. Four government policies have had influences on infection.  

 

(4) The rising number of instances will have a negative impact on Burnie's economic growth.

 

Insights:

1. As a result of the government's covid 19 rules, fewer people will be vulnerable. Less people going to be susceptible.

 

2. After the government policy intervention, there is a effectively reduce of infected people.

 

3. Overall, there is no big differences of economic performance from the graph, might due to the positive and negative effect of economy. And after two weeks, the economy maintained a level of development without much decline.

WIP based mostly on Jan Toporowski 2013 vol 1 and 2018 vol 2 books on Michal Kalecki: An Intellectual Biography  

Circular equations WIP for Runy.

This model also shows the operation of a simple economy. It differs from Model 1 primarily in the representation of all goods in the economy by units of measure of a higher level of abstraction. Thus, the same model can represent economies at different levels.

The simulation demonstrates how differing rates of consumption affect Savings.

This Insight Maker model illustrates the complex relationships involved in the destruction of rainforests. The reinforcing loop emphasizes the destructive cycle where economic development leads to increased deforestation, while the balancing loop highlights the negative consequences on biodiversity, climate, and economic activities, attempting to counteract the destructive forces. The model serves as a simplified representation to better understand the interconnected factors contributing to rainforest destruction and the importance of considering feedback loops in addressing environmental issues.

Overview of Part F Ch 25 and 26 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview

Barangay IRAWAN Systems Model

The recent moratorium on deep-sea drilling will reduce the supply of oil. But the world-wide trend is an ever increasing demand for it. This simple CLD  tries to illustrate the dampening effect on demand and on economic activity of diminishing oil supplies and of rising prices: oil prices  affect virtually all products and especially agricultural production. As it becomes more and more difficult to extract oil, prices must rise. At the moment the global recession counteracts this effect, but the recession will not last forever. Is it too early to speak of Peak Oil?