INTRODUCTION
This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID
19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health
policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure)
affect the local economy. This model has 13 positive loops and seven negative loops. Government response
is dependent on the number of reported COVID-19 cases which in turn thought to be dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered from COVID 19 and
dead. Economic activity is dependent on the economic growth rate, increased in online shopping, increased in unemployment, number of people who do not obey the rules, COVID 19 cases and health policies.
ASSUMPTIONS
· Both infection and economic growth is reduced by
enforcing government policies
· However, the negative effect of government policies is reduced
by the number of people who do not obey government health policies
· Govt policies are enforced when the reported
COVID-19 case are 10 or greater.
· Number of COVID cases reported is dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered and dead.
· The higher number of COVID-19 cases have a
negative effect on local economy. This phenomena is known as negative signalling.
· Government policies have a negative effect on economic activity because health policies limit both social and economic activities which directly or indirectly affect the economy in Burnie .
· This negative effect is somewhat reduced by the
increase in online shopping and the number of people who do not obey heath
rules.
INTERESTING INSIGHTS
The test ratings seem to play a vital role in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. Higher Rates of COVID testings decrease the number of COVID 19 deaths and number of infected. This is because higher rates of testing accelerate the
government involvement (as the government intervention is triggered earlier, 10 COVID cases mark is reached earlier). Delaying the government intervention by reducing the COVID testing rates increases the death rates and number of infected.
Increased testing rates allow the figures (deaths, susceptible, infected) to reach a plateau quickly.
