Simpler view  IM-70351  combined with Economic View IM-69774  in preparation for integrating with Prevention Investment Framework  (private) IM  Reworked at  Multiscale simpler view IM
Simpler view IM-70351 combined with Economic ViewIM-69774 in preparation for integrating with Prevention Investment Framework (private) IM
 
 
 A Tragedy of the Commons situation exists whenever two or more activities, each, which in order to produce results, rely on a shared limited resource. Results for these activities continue to develop as long as their use of the limited resource doesn't exceed the resource limit. Once this limit

A Tragedy of the Commons situation exists whenever two or more activities, each, which in order to produce results, rely on a shared limited resource. Results for these activities continue to develop as long as their use of the limited resource doesn't exceed the resource limit. Once this limit is reached the results produced by each activity are limited to the level at which the resource is replenished. As an example, consider multiple departments with an organization using IT resources, until they've exhausted IT capacity.

​Farmers use intensive pesticides to harvest cotton, which is harmful to not only the health of the farmers using them, but also our environment as it pollutes rivers and groundwater that negatively interfere with the ecosystem. Even though these farmers know of the health and environmental risks, t
​Farmers use intensive pesticides to harvest cotton, which is harmful to not only the health of the farmers using them, but also our environment as it pollutes rivers and groundwater that negatively interfere with the ecosystem. Even though these farmers know of the health and environmental risks, they still use harmful pesticides to produce cotton, but why is this so. This stock and flow map should explain what impacts farmers to use pesticides to grow cotton despite the risks and explain the cause and effect relationship their use has on the cotton industry and the environment.
According to Clevo Wilson and Clem Tisdell article, "Why farmer continue to use pesticides despite environmental, health and sustainable costs,"

Pesticide use by farmers:
  • "used to reduce yield losses to pests"
  • "avoid economic losses to ensure economical survival"
  • "increase supply market and reduce market prices"
  • "ignorance of sustainable use"
  • "integral part of commercially grow high yielding varieties so without use, high yields may not be sustained"
  • "damage to agriculture land from the use occurs over long period of time so costs may not look serious short term, but reduces economic welfare in long term"
  • "environmental damage: pollutes rivers and groundwater, destroys beneficial predators and interferes with ecosystem overall"
  • "health risks underestimated"
  • "chemical companies selling it have incentive to push their use by advertising and promotion" (1,9).
Structure of model in Nathan Forrester's 1983 MIT Thesis comprising 4 models
Structure of model in Nathan Forrester's 1983 MIT Thesis comprising 4 models
 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a compon
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

Solow model without external factors.
Solow model without external factors.
4 10 months ago
Simple model of the global economy, the global carbon cycle, and planetary energy balance.    The planetary energy balance model is a two-box model, with shallow and deep ocean heat reservoirs. The carbon cycle model is a 4-box model, with the atmosphere, shallow ocean, deep ocean, and terrestrial c
Simple model of the global economy, the global carbon cycle, and planetary energy balance.

The planetary energy balance model is a two-box model, with shallow and deep ocean heat reservoirs. The carbon cycle model is a 4-box model, with the atmosphere, shallow ocean, deep ocean, and terrestrial carbon. 

The economic model is based on the Kaya identity, which decomposes CO2 emissions into population, GDP/capita, energy intensity of GDP, and carbon intensity of energy. It allows for temperature-related climate damages to both GDP and the growth rate of GDP.

This model was originally created by Bob Kopp - https://insightmaker.com/user/16029 (Rutgers University) in support of the SESYNC Climate Learning Project.

Steve Conrad (Simon Fraser University) modified the model to include emission/development/and carbon targets for the use by ENV 221.
 Modern industrial civilisation has created massive
interdependencies which define it and without which it could not function. We all
depend on industrial farming to produce the food we eat, we depend on gasoline
being available at the gas station,  on the
availability of electricity and even on the

Modern industrial civilisation has created massive interdependencies which define it and without which it could not function. We all depend on industrial farming to produce the food we eat, we depend on gasoline being available at the gas station,  on the availability of electricity and even on the bread supplied by the local baker. Naturally, we tend to support the institutions that supply the amenities and goods to which we have become accustomed: if we get our food from the local supermarket, it is likely that we would be opposed to it’s closure. This means that the economic system that relies on continuous growth enjoys implicit societal support and that nothing short of environmental disaster or a shortage of essential raw materials will impede it’s growing indefinitely. It is not hard to work out the consequences of this situation!

This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse the fractional rate of saving.)  In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the l
This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse the fractional rate of saving.)

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the long-run.
Summary of Ch 27 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see  IM-164967  for book overview See  IM-169093  for added dynamic evolutionary economics history
Summary of Ch 27 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview See IM-169093 for added dynamic evolutionary economics history
Simple tragedy ​of the commons behavior model.
Simple tragedy ​of the commons behavior model.