Modeling water saving potential with urban planning, demand management practice, and alternative technologies

Water Use Urban Water Demand Population Housing

This is model of compounded interest.

Population

UDB101 Assignment 1D

Koala Population Case Study

Sian Phillips

Koala Population Increase Decrease

This simulates population growth, culture, energy, and land use. Parameters are somewhat arbitrary, and can be tailored to a specific urban system using real data.

Population Energy Urban

FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION 
 BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth BIFURCATIONS MTBF Strategy Weather

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

Influence of migration on the number of working-age population.

Population Employment Migration

A simple and easy to follow model of how fertility and mortality affect a population, using ferns as an example.

Ecology Biology Ecosystem Population Ferns

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

Koala Population

Initial attempt to reduce confusion about risk and odds ratios.

Health Care Population Public Health Epidemiology Prevention Risk

This model explores how birth and death rates influence population growth.

Population

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

Modelagem do estado psicológico de uma população. Inicialmente, todos os indivíduos estão no estado "Calmo". Com o passar do tempo e com as interações mútuas, há o surgimento e progressivo aumento do total de indivíduos com raiva (estado "Raivoso"). Deste estado e, com o passar do tempo, os indivíduos podem evoluir mentalmente e atingirem o estado "Indiferente", nos quais eles se tornam indiferentes à qualquer interação. Outra possibilidade é o indivíduo se enriquecer e, assim, atingir a felicidade (estado "Feliz").

Population Psychological States Of Mind Interactions

Simple one stock model of population increase with actual years using a converter

Health Care Population

A detailed insight map into the current population trends surrounding koalas and the different variables involved which will influence these trends in years to come.

Koala Population UBD101

Population Stabilizing Feedback

The simulation integrates or sums (INTEG) the Nj population, with a change of Delta N in each generation, starting with an initial value of 5.The equation for DeltaN is a version of Nj+1 = Nj  + mu (1- Nj / Nmax ) Nj
the maximum population is set to be one million, and the growth rate constant mu = 3. Nj: is the “number of items” in our current generation.
Delta Nj: is the “change in number of items” as we go from the present generation into the next generation. This is just the number of items born minus the number of items who have died.

mu: is the growth or birth rate parameter, similar to that in the exponential growth and decay model. However, as we extend our model it will no longer be the actual growth rate, but rather just a constant that tends to control the actual growth rate without being directly proportional to it.

F(Nj) = mu(1‐Nj/Nmax): is our model for the effective “growth rate”, a rate that decreases as the number of items approaches the maximum allowed by external factors such as food supply, disease or predation. (You can think of mu as the growth or birth rate in the absence of population pressure from other items.) We write this rate as F(Nj), which is a mathematical way of saying F is affected by the number of items, i.e., “F is a function of Nj”. It combines both growth and all the various environmental constraints on growth into a single function. This is a good approach to modeling; start with something that works (exponential growth) and then modify it incrementally, while still incorporating the working model.

Nj+1 = Nj + Delta Nj : This is a mathematical way to say, “The new number of items equals the old number of items plus the change in number of items”.

Nj/Nmax: is what fraction a population has reached of the maximum "carrying capacity" allowed by the external environment. We use this fraction to change the overall growth rate of the population. In the real world, as well as in our model, it is possible for a population to be greater than the maximum population (which is usually an average of many years), at least for a short period of time. This means that we can expect fluctuations in which Nj/Nmax is greater than 1.

This equation is a form of what is known as the logistic map or equation. It is a map because it "maps'' the population in one year into the population of the next year. It is "logistic'' in the military sense of supplying a population with its needs. It a nonlinear equation because it contains a term proportional to Nj^2 and not just Nj. The logistic map equation is also an example of discrete mathematics. It is discrete because the time variable j assumes just integer values, and consequently the variables Nj+1 and Nj do not change continuously into each other, as would a function N(t). In addition to the variables Nj and j, the equation also contains the two parameters mu, the growth rate, and Nmax, the maximum population. You can think of these as "constants'' whose values are determined from external sources and remain fixed as one year of items gets mapped into the next year. However, as part of viewing the computer as a laboratory in which to experiment, and as part of the scientific process, you should vary the parameters in order to explore how the model reacts to changes in them.

Environment MATHS Mathematics Chaos Fractals BIFURCATION Model Economics Finance TURBULENCE Population Growth DECAY STABILITY SUSTAINABLE Engineering Science Demographics Strategy

The simulation integrates or sums (INTEG) the Nj population, with a change of Delta N in each generation, starting with an initial value of 5.The equation for DeltaN is a version of Nj+1 = Nj  + mu (1- Nj / Nmax ) Nj
the maximum population is set to be one million, and the growth rate constant mu = 3. Nj: is the “number of items” in our current generation.
Delta Nj: is the “change in number of items” as we go from the present generation into the next generation. This is just the number of items born minus the number of items who have died.

mu: is the growth or birth rate parameter, similar to that in the exponential growth and decay model. However, as we extend our model it will no longer be the actual growth rate, but rather just a constant that tends to control the actual growth rate without being directly proportional to it.

F(Nj) = mu(1‐Nj/Nmax): is our model for the effective “growth rate”, a rate that decreases as the number of items approaches the maximum allowed by external factors such as food supply, disease or predation. (You can think of mu as the growth or birth rate in the absence of population pressure from other items.) We write this rate as F(Nj), which is a mathematical way of saying F is affected by the number of items, i.e., “F is a function of Nj”. It combines both growth and all the various environmental constraints on growth into a single function. This is a good approach to modeling; start with something that works (exponential growth) and then modify it incrementally, while still incorporating the working model.

Nj+1 = Nj + Delta Nj : This is a mathematical way to say, “The new number of items equals the old number of items plus the change in number of items”.

Nj/Nmax: is what fraction a population has reached of the maximum "carrying capacity" allowed by the external environment. We use this fraction to change the overall growth rate of the population. In the real world, as well as in our model, it is possible for a population to be greater than the maximum population (which is usually an average of many years), at least for a short period of time. This means that we can expect fluctuations in which Nj/Nmax is greater than 1.

This equation is a form of what is known as the logistic map or equation. It is a map because it "maps'' the population in one year into the population of the next year. It is "logistic'' in the military sense of supplying a population with its needs. It a nonlinear equation because it contains a term proportional to Nj^2 and not just Nj. The logistic map equation is also an example of discrete mathematics. It is discrete because the time variable j assumes just integer values, and consequently the variables Nj+1 and Nj do not change continuously into each other, as would a function N(t). In addition to the variables Nj and j, the equation also contains the two parameters mu, the growth rate, and Nmax, the maximum population. You can think of these as "constants'' whose values are determined from external sources and remain fixed as one year of items gets mapped into the next year. However, as part of viewing the computer as a laboratory in which to experiment, and as part of the scientific process, you should vary the parameters in order to explore how the model reacts to changes in them.

Environment MATHS Mathematics Chaos Fractals BIFURCATION Model Economics Finance TURBULENCE Population Growth DECAY STABILITY SUSTAINABLE Engineering Science Demographics Strategy

Acest model este adaptat după reprezentarea lui Harmut Bossel, în lucrarea  "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."Utilizarea modelului ne poate ajuta pentru a vizualiza evolutia populatiei pe grupe de varsta sau pentru a gestiona probleme cum ar fi ocuparea forței de muncă.

System Zoo Z602 Population Society Economics

A simple simulation used to observe the California Yellowtail population in San Diego

Fish Yellowtail Population

Population

Verkoppelung der drei Teilmodelle zu einem Gesamtmodell, der "Miniwelt" im Umfang von Bossel.Eine Modifikation besteht darin, dass ein hohes Konsumniveau wieder zu einer Absenkung der Geburten führt.

Environment World Population Limits Growth Consumption

Can World3 be simplified? This is a model of the global human ecology. Closed systems are defined for carbon and land. An open system is defined for non-renewable non-fossil fuels in which the sink is external.  Energy is modeled as an open system with inflow from converters and outflow to various energy-driven human activities.--------Model is in template form. Units are Tonnes (carbon or mineral (copper) ), Tonnes per Year, Hectares, Hectares per Year. Ready for input of real world values.  --CB 24Feb16--------We have started putting real world data into the model.  Fill in stocks and flows by March 11. Be sure to cite the source of the data in the Notes section. --CB 5mar2016--------Here is the land portion filled out to the best of our extent. All data has been acquired from the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO, http://faostat3.fao.org) and Science (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622814002793). Values for degraded and unusable land were calculated from total land. Agricultural land values were also calculated using calories produced globally over calories per hectare, and the values were consistent.  J.N., T.R., L.B., Land group

Population