Insight diagram
Primer ensayo de simulación, modelo sencillo de población de zorros y conejos. Mi modelo consiste en un modelo sencillo de la población de Zorros y conejos, donde la población de conejos se ve afectada  por la muerte de conejos, la cual es el producto  de la  tasa de muerte de los conejos  multiplicado por la población de conejos, más  la población de zorros  multiplicada  por los conejos que se come cada zorro. También se tiene en cuenta que si no hay conejos suficientes  aumenta la  tasa de mortalidad de zorros.
Zorros y Conejos
Insight diagram
This is a basic population estimator. Default values approximate recent data for the United States, except for the birth rate.
Clone of Population Projection (USA)
Insight diagram
Influence of migration on the number of working-age population.
Clone of Radno sposobno stanovništvo
Insight diagram
Woodland caribou is a species at risk because of northward expansion of resource development activity.  Some herds are in dire condition and well below self-sustainability, while others are only moderately below self-sustaining levels.  Given limited conservation dollars, what are the most effective conservation actions, and how much money needs to be spent?  Which herds should be a priority for conservation efforts? The purpose of this model to provide insight into these difficult conservation questions.  

This model was developed by Rob Rempel and Jen Shuter at the Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research, and was based in part on input from attendees of a modelling workshop ("Modelling the Caribou Questions") held at the 16th North American Caribou Workshop in Thunder Bay, Ontario, May 2016.
Caribou Conservation Triage-V2
5 months ago
Insight diagram
Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt 
Where  
• F(t) is the probability of failure  
• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) 
• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  

Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period. 
BATHTUB MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURE (MTBF) RISK
Insight diagram
Influence of migration on the number of working-age population.
Clone of Radno sposobno stanovništvo
Insight diagram
Influence of migration on the number of working-age population.
Radno sposobno stanovništvo
Insight diagram
Influence of migration on the number of working-age population.
Clone of Radno sposobno stanovništvo
Insight diagram
FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION 
 BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

FORCED GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE
Insight diagram
Influence of migration on the number of working-age population.
Clone of Clone of Clone of Radno sposobno stanovništvo
Insight diagram
A simple simulation used to observe the California Yellowtail population in San Diego
Clone of Yellowtail Population - San Diego
Insight diagram
Influence of migration on the number of working-age population.
Clone of Clone of Radno sposobno stanovništvo
Insight diagram
Influence of migration on the number of working-age population.
Clone of Clone of Radno sposobno stanovništvo
Insight diagram
WIP Clone of IM-9085 for multiscale frameworks based on ecography article. Vital Signs From NAP Toward Quality Measures for Population Health and the Leading Health Indicators Report  WHO NCD Framework picture and IHI Whole system measures 2.0 (Added Nov 2016)
Multiscale Health Processes and Patterns
Insight diagram
Show relation of birth and death rate over time, creating the elements of the demographic transition. This one is for Australia. You can clone this insight for other nations, just plug in the new crude birth and death rates and find the starting population in 1960.
Population Projection- Australia 2045
Insight diagram
Shows projection of birth and death rate over time.. This one is for Australia.
Australia Population Projection 2045
Insight diagram
Simulation of how tiger population and anti poaching efforts effect the black market value of tiger organs.
Clone of Tiger Population and Black Market Value
Insight diagram
Influence of migration on the number of working-age population.
Clone of Clone of Clone of Clone of Radno sposobno stanovništvo
Insight diagram

This is a basic model for use with our lab section.  The full BIDE options.

Cēsis līdz 2020
Insight diagram

Flows between acute hospital and aged care for older people. See IM-1012 for a simpler version

Aged Care and Hospital Flows
Insight diagram
Adding change over time to relative risk, odds ratio and population attributable fraction epidemiology concepts see wikipedia and examples .
Could also add deaths and competing risks
Relative Risk dynamics
Insight diagram
Influence of migration on the number of working-age population.
Radno sposobno stanovništvo
Insight diagram
Adapted from Hartmut Bossel's "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."

​Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for the elderly, pensions dynamics, etc.
Clone of Z602 Population with four age groups