A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.
YellowstoneEcoClassModel
THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED
Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
2018 OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO POLLUTION based on Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Woodland caribou is a species at risk because of northward expansion of resource development activity. Some herds are in dire condition and well below self-sustainability, while others are only moderately below self-sustaining levels. Given limited conservation dollars, what are the most effective conservation actions, and how much money needs to be spent? Which herds should be a priority for conservation efforts? The purpose of this model to provide insight into these difficult conservation questions.
This model was developed by Rob Rempel and Jen Shuter at the Centre for Northern Forest Ecosystem Research, and was based in part on input from attendees of a modelling workshop ("Modelling the Caribou Questions") held at the 16th North American Caribou Workshop in Thunder Bay, Ontario, May 2016.
Caribou Conservation Triage-V2
Adding change over time to relative risk, odds ratio and population attributable fraction epidemiology concepts see
wikipedia and
examples .
Could also add deaths and competing risks
Relative Risk dynamics
Lake Sturgeon Population Model
国連が公表している人口の将来推計とOECDが公表している各種経済統計を参考にして、2000年から2100年までの人口・経済見通しを作成するためのダイナミクスモデル。
①人口：年少(0-14歳)・再生産年齢人口(15-49歳)・後期生産年齢人口(50-64歳)・老年人口(65歳以上)にグループ分けし、出生数(再生産年齢人口×出生率)と死亡数(年代別死亡率×年代別人口の合計)を算出して総人口を推計
②経済：2000年のGDPをストックとして、コブ＝ダグラス型関数に基づき労働力人口(15歳以上人口×労働参加率)と資本ストック(総固定資本形成)および全要素生産性の成長率をフローとし、購買力平価レートの変化率も加味して将来のGDP(購買力平価換算)を算出
現状投影シナリオ：2000年から2100年までに制度や前提条件の極端な変更はなく、現状のトレンドが続くと想定される場合
World, Population, Economy, Projection Model 2000-2100
Modelagem do estado psicológico de uma população. Inicialmente, todos os indivíduos estão no estado "Calmo". Com o passar do tempo e com as interações mútuas, há o surgimento e progressivo aumento do total de indivíduos com raiva (estado "Raivoso"). Deste estado e, com o passar do tempo, os indivíduos podem evoluir mentalmente e atingirem o estado "Indiferente", nos quais eles se tornam indiferentes à qualquer interação. Outra possibilidade é o indivíduo se enriquecer e, assim, atingir a felicidade (estado "Feliz").
Estado psicológico de uma população (MBA)
Shows the ecological impact of population.
Population Ecological Impact-Argentina
This is a basic BIDE (birth, immigration, death, emigration) model. Not all parts are implemented, however Birth and Death are.
Clone of Bio 190: BIDE Model With Carrying Capacity
A simple simulation used to observe the California Yellowtail population in San Diego
Clone of Yellowtail Population - San Diego
Verkoppelung der drei Teilmodelle zu einem Gesamtmodell, der "Miniwelt" im Umfang von Bossel.
Eine Modifikation besteht darin, dass ein hohes Konsumniveau wieder zu einer Absenkung der Geburten führt.
Miniwelt nach Bossel, Reiche kriegen weniger Kinder
This is a basic BIDE (birth, immigration, death, emigration) model. Not all parts are implemented, however Birth and Death are.
Clone of Bio 190: BIDE Model With Carrying Capacity
age demographics using Delay function
lecture4.3
Koala populations in South East Queensland have been plummeting for decades and is only speeding up. Here is a Systems Dynamics model of key factors that increase and decrease the Koala population in SEQ.
Throughout the model it is clear that if SEQ continues to grow with urbanisation and are not proactive with community awareness, Koala numbers will plummet.
David De Marco
David De Marco's Koala insight
A simplified population model with three age groups
Clone of Simple Population
To keep control on wildlife
deer populations two means are available; killing by hunters or sterilization
and castration. This model allows investigating the best possible method and … actual risk on extinction caused by proposed
solutions!
Note 1) Data used in this
model are fictitious.
Note 2) Govenrments preferred
solution are hunters because this will generate income from licences,
sterilization and castration only will generate costs; forester, transport,
vet, medical. govenrments should make a stand up for the animals.
Note 3) Other solutions do
exist and detail could be added to this analysis model that could result in
even better solutions.
Kind regards, J.B. van Doesburg
Deer_Population_01
Simulation of how tiger population and anti poaching efforts effect the black market value of tiger organs.
Clone of Tiger Population and Black Market Value
This is a simulation of growth rate
New York's Population Growth with different functions
A simple simulation used to observe the California Yellowtail population in San Diego
Clone of Yellowtail Population - San Diego
Adapted from Hartmut Bossel's "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."
Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for the elderly, pensions dynamics, etc.
Clone of Clone of Z602 Population with four age groups
Simulation of how tiger population and anti poaching efforts effect the black market value of tiger organs.
Clone of Tiger Population and Black Market Value
Shows the ecological impact of population.
Population Ecological Impact - Denmark
Exponential growth model for humans, based on birth rate and death rate, both a function of consumption.
Global ecosystem model with self-regenerating ecological capital, and ecological Impact (ecological footprint)
Nature and People, separate
This is a basic BIDE (birth, immigration, death, emigration) model. Not all parts are implemented, however Birth and Death are.
Clone of Bio 190: BIDE Model With Carrying Capacity
