A model of the monthly change in prevalence of smokers and ex-smokers in the population

The number of doping cases at the Olympic Games has soared in the last 10 years. We feel that a systems thinking approach is necessary because it is a complex social and political problem with many underlying factors feeding into the system making it hard to find concrete one-off solutions. A systems approach will enable us to find leverage points by breaking down the core problem thus making it easier to address the issue.

Simulate drug amount and drug concentration in blood plasma based on intake amount, intake frequency, drug absorption, drug half life, and body weight

This is the base stock and flow diagram I will use to develop a larger system of influencing factors, from health, agri-food systems, and environmental models. Data was taken from UNICEF and UNFPA. Time = 0 starts at 1987.

How to "infect" a surf spot

This connection loop demonstrates the negative effects of the consumption of energy drinks containing caffeine and/or taurine.

How do drugs affect us on individual and popular levels? Let's take a look at drug addiction as a system and pick it apart based on its biological, financial, mental, and communal effects.

Several scientific studies have shown that a regime of regular exercise can help drug addicts in fighting their addiction. This simple CLD tries to illustrate  the positive social and physical dynamic that sports activity can generate that may be beneficial in this process. There are also other positive effects of physical exercise that I have not shown. Sports activity  can help increase dopamine levels, which may improve the mood of those fighting drug addiction and  prompt them to stick to their regime of exercises.  

This insight is about infection propagation and population migration influence on this propagation.

For this, we defined a world population size and a percentage of it who’s infected. Then, we created an agent where we simulated possible states of an individual.

So, he can be healthy, infected (with an infection rate) or immunized ( with a certain rate of immunization). If the individual is infected, he can be alive or dead. Then, we simulated different continents (North-America, Asia and Europe) with a migration between theses with a certain rate of migration (we tried to approach reality).

Then, thanks to our our move action which represent a circular permutation between the different continents with a random probability the agent will be applied to every individual of the world population.

How the program works ?

In order to use this insight needs to define a size of world population and a probability of every individual to reproduce himself.

Every individual of this population can have three different state (healthy, infected or immunized) and infected people can be alive or dead.

We need to define a percentage of infection to healthy people and a percentage of death for infected people and also a percentage of immunization.

Finally there is le migration part of the program, in this one we need to define three different continents, states or whatever you want. We also need to define a migration probability between each continent to move these person.

With this moving people we can study the influence of migration on the propagation of a disease.

OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

Living Case Masterplan Insel-Spital

This systems model will help students understand the different systems that make up our body and how choices we make can impact how those systems work.
Factors are based on daily choices.

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

This systems model will help students understand the different systems that make up our body and how choices we make can impact how those systems work.
Factors are based on daily choices.

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model for Rage

Simulation of MTBF with controls


The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
Useful Life

Wearout

Simulation of MTBF with controls


The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
Useful Life

Wearout

FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION 
 BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

Simulation of MTBF with controls


The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
Useful Life

Wearout