Introduction:

The SEIRS(D) model for the purpose of experimenting with the phenomena of viral spread. I use it for COVID-19 simulation.

Overview:

Overall, this analysis showed a COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, the government policies to curtail that, and some of the impacts it is having on the Burnie economy.

Variables

The simulation made use of the variables such as; Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): Death rate. (4): Immunity loss rate etc. 

Assumptions:

From the model, it is apparent that government health policies directly affect the economic output of Burnie. A better health policy has proven to have a better economic condition for Burnie and verse versa.

In the COVID-19 model, some variables are set at fixed rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death rate, infection rate, and case impact rate, as this is normally influenced by the individual health conditions and social activities.

Moving forward, we decided to set the recovery rate to 0.7, which is a rate above the immunity loss rate of 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be diminished over time.

Step 1: Try to set all value variables at their lowest point and then stimulate. 

 

Outcome: the number of those Infected are– 135; Recovered – 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.

Step 2: Try to increase the variables of Health Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the same as step 1, and simulate

Outcome: The number of those Infected – 166 (up); Recovered – 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).

With this analysis, it is obvious that the increase of health policy, quarantine, and travel restriction will assist in increase recovery rate, a decrease in confirmed cases, a reduction in death cases or fatality rate, but a decrease in Burnie GDP.

Step 3: Enlarge the Testing Rate to 0.4, variable, others, maintain the same as step 2, and simulate

Outcome: It can be seen that the number of Infected is down to – 152; those recovered down to – 243; overall cases up to – 1022; those that died down to–17,625; while the GDP remains – 824.

In this step, it is apparent that the increase of testing rate will assist to increase the confirmed cases.

Step 4: Try to change the GDP Growth Rate to 0.14, then Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and then simulate the model

Outcome: what happens is that the Infected number – 152 remains the same; Recovered rate– 243 the same; Number of Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); but the GDP goes up to– 6,632. 

This final step made it obvious that the increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will help to improve the overall GDP performance of Burnie's economy.

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

This model is comparing healthy and sick residents in Burnie, Tasmania after the Covid-19 Outbreak in 2020. It will also show how the Burnie economy is effected by the disease, how the Government Health Policies are implemented and how they are enforced.

This model is based on the SIR, Susceptible, Infection, Recovery (or Removed) These are the three possible states related to the members of the Burnie population when a contagious decease spreads.

The Government/Government Health Policy, played a big part in the successful decrease in Covid-19 infections. The Government enforced the following.
- No travel (interstate or international)
- Isolation within the residents homes
- Social distancing by 1.5m
- Quarantine
- Non essential companies to be temporarily closed
- Limitations on public gatherings
- And limits on time and kilometers aloud to travel from ones home within a local community

This resulted in lower reported infection rates of Covid-19 and higher recovery rates.

In my opinion: When the first case was reported the Government could have been even faster to enforce these rules to decrease the fatality rates further for the Burnie, population.  

Assumption: Government policies were only triggered when 10 cases were recorded.
Also, more cases that had been recorded effected the economic growth during this time.

Interesting Findings: In the simulation it shows as the death rates increases towards the end of the week, the rate of testing goes down. You would think that the government would have enforced a higher testing rate over the duration of this time to decrease the number of infections, exposed which would increase the recovery rates faster and more efficiently.  

Figures have been determined by the population of Burnie being 19,380 at the time of assignment.

Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

Overview:

The COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania shows the process of COVID-19 outbreak, the impacts of government policy on both the COVID-19 outbreak and the GDP growth in Burnie.

Assumptions:

We set some variables at fix rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death rate, infection rate and case impact rate, as they usually depend on the individual health conditions and social activities.

It should be noticed that we set the rate of recovery, which is 0.7, is higher than that of immunity loss rate, which is 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be reduced over time.

Adjustments: (please compare the numbers at week 52)

Step 1: Set all the variables at minimum values and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 135; Recovered – 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.

Step 2: Increase the variables of Health Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the same as step 1, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 166 (up); Recovered – 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).

So, the increase of health policy, quarantine and travel restriction will help increase recovery, decrease confirmed cases, decrease death, but also decrease GDP.

Step 3: Increase the variables of Testing Rate to 0.4, others keep the same as step 2, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 152 (down); Recovered – 243 (down); Cases – 1022 (up); Death – 17,625 (down); GDP – 824 (same).

So, the increase of testing rate will help to increase the confirmed cases.

Step 4: Change GDP Growth Rate to 0.14, Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 152 (same); Recovered – 243 (same); Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); GDP – 6,632 (up).

So, the increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will helps to improve the GDP in Burnie.

This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.

Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  

This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.