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# COVID-19

#### Clone of Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death

Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.
Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure
With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.
Resources:
• 1 year 2 months ago

#### Clone of Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death

Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.
Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure
With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.
Resources:
• 1 year 2 months ago

#### Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
AssumptionsGovt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.

• 7 months 3 weeks ago

#### Clone of شگفتی سازهای تاثیر گذار بر محورمقاومت در جهان پساکرونا

لطفا برای بزرگنمایی و مشاهده مدل بر روی دکمه
[Explore The Model]کلیک کنید

شگفتی سازهای تاثیر گذار بر محورمقاومت در جهان پساکرونا چه خواهند بود؟
لطفا نظرات خود را با من در میان بگذارید:motealle@gmail.com
• 8 months 1 week ago

#### Clone of SARS-CoV-19 Modell von Lucia Vega Resto

Ausbreitung von SARS-CoV-19 in verschiedenen Ländern
- bitte passen Sie die Variablen über die Schieberegler weiter unten entsprechend an

Italien

ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,228
Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 4-11
Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 60 000 000
hoher Blutdruck: 0,32 (gbe-bund)
Herzkrankheit: 0,04 (statista)
kostenlose Intensivstationen: 3 100

Deutschland

ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,195 (bpb)
geschätzte unentdeckte Fälle Faktor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 83 000 000
hoher Blutdruck: 0,26 (gbe-bund)
Herzkrankheit: 0,2-0,28 (Herzstiftung)
kostenlose Intensivstationen: 5 880

Frankreich

ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,183 (statista)
Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 3-5
Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 67 000 000
Bluthochdruck: 0,3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
Herzkrankheit: 0,1-0,2 (oecd)
kostenlose Intensivstationen: 3 000

Je nach Bedarf:

Anzahl der Begegnungen/Tag: 1 = Quarantäne, 2-3 = soziale Distanzierung , 4-6 = erschwertes soziales Leben, 7-9 = überhaupt keine Einschränkungen // Vorgabe 2
Praktizierte Präventivmassnahmen (d.h. sich regelmässig die Hände waschen, das Gesicht nicht berühren usw.): 0.1 (niemand tut etwas) - 1 (sehr gründlich) // Vorgabe 0.8
Aufklärung durch die Regierung: 0,1 (sehr schlecht) - 1 (sehr transparent und aufklärend) // Vorgabe 0,9
Immunitätsrate (aufgrund fehlender Daten): 0 (man kann nicht immun werden) - 1 (wenn man es einmal hatte, wird man es nie wieder bekommen) // Vorgabe 0,4

Schlüssel

Anfällige: Menschen sind nicht mit SARS-CoV-19 infiziert, könnten aber infiziert werden
Infizierte: Menschen sind infiziert worden und haben die Krankheit COVID-19
Geheilte: Die Menschen haben sich gerade von COVID-19 erholt und können es in diesem Stadium nicht mehr bekommen
Tote: Menschen starben wegen COVID-19
Immunisierte: Menschen wurden immun und können die Krankheit nicht mehr bekommen
Kritischer Prozentsatz der Wiederherstellung: Überlebenschance ohne spezielle medizinische Behandlung

• 1 year 2 weeks ago

#### Clone of Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This Model was first developed from the SIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationship between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its influences on the economy as well as well-being of local residents.

Assumptions:

Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;

Government policies reduces the infection and economic growth at the same time.

Interesting Insights:

In the first two weeks, the infected people showed an exponential growth, in another word, that’s the most important period to control the number of people who got affected.

• 7 months 3 weeks ago

#### Clone of Clone of Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This Model was first developed from the SIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationship between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its influences on the economy as well as well-being of local residents.

Assumptions:

Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;

Government policies reduces the infection and economic growth at the same time.

Interesting Insights:

In the first two weeks, the infected people showed an exponential growth, in another word, that’s the most important period to control the number of people who got affected.

• 7 months 3 weeks ago