Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.    Modified by Rio dan Pras
Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.

Modified by Rio dan Pras
  Overview:   Overall, this analysis showed a COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, the government policies to curtail that, and some of the impacts it is having on the Burnie economy.      Variables   The simulation made use of the variables such as; Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): D

Overview:

Overall, this analysis showed a COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, the government policies to curtail that, and some of the impacts it is having on the Burnie economy.


Variables

The simulation made use of the variables such as; Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): Death rate. (4): Immunity loss rate etc. 


Assumptions:

From the model, it is apparent that government health policies directly affect the economic output of Burnie. A better health policy has proven to have a better economic condition for Burnie and verse versa.


In the COVID-19 model, some variables are set at fixed rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death rate, infection rate, and case impact rate, as this is normally influenced by the individual health conditions and social activities.

Moving forward, we decided to set the recovery rate to 0.7, which is a rate above the immunity loss rate of 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be diminished over time.


Step 1: Try to set all value variables at their lowest point and then stimulate. 

 

Outcome: the number of those Infected are– 135; Recovered – 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.


Step 2: Try to increase the variables of Health Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the same as step 1, and simulate


Outcome: The number of those Infected – 166 (up); Recovered – 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).


With this analysis, it is obvious that the increase of health policy, quarantine, and travel restriction will assist in increase recovery rate, a decrease in confirmed cases, a reduction in death cases or fatality rate, but a decrease in Burnie GDP.


Step 3: Enlarge the Testing Rate to 0.4, variable, others, maintain the same as step 2, and simulate


Outcome: It can be seen that the number of Infected is down to – 152; those recovered down to – 243; overall cases up to – 1022; those that died down to–17,625; while the GDP remains – 824.


In this step, it is apparent that the increase of testing rate will assist to increase the confirmed cases.


Step 4: Try to change the GDP Growth Rate to 0.14, then Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and then simulate the model


Outcome: what happens is that the Infected number – 152 remains the same; Recovered rate– 243 the same; Number of Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); but the GDP goes up to– 6,632. 


This final step made it obvious that the increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will help to improve the overall GDP performance of Burnie's economy.

This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.    It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.      Government interventi
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.

It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10. 

Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.
On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.
 Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.      With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.     We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:
 This is the first in a series of models that explore the dynamics of and policy impacts on infectious diseases. This basic  model divides the population into three categories -- Susceptible (S), Infectious (I) and Recovered (R).       Press the simulate button to run the model and see what happens
This is the first in a series of models that explore the dynamics of and policy impacts on infectious diseases. This basic  model divides the population into three categories -- Susceptible (S), Infectious (I) and Recovered (R).  

Press the simulate button to run the model and see what happens at different values of the Reproduction Number (R0).

The second model that includes a simple test and isolate policy can be found here.
 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

Model ini dirancang untuk membuat model tentang penyebaran Covid-19 dan vaksinasi di Kabupaten Sleman pada November 2022     Model ini dibuat untuk memenuhi tugas kelompok dari matakuliah Metode Penyelesaian Masalah dan Pemodelan, atas nama :   Sabilla Halimatus Mahmud   Nurul Widyastuti Muhammad Na
Model ini dirancang untuk membuat model tentang penyebaran Covid-19 dan vaksinasi di Kabupaten Sleman pada November 2022

Model ini dibuat untuk memenuhi tugas kelompok dari matakuliah Metode Penyelesaian Masalah dan Pemodelan, atas nama :
Sabilla Halimatus Mahmud
Nurul Widyastuti
Muhammad Najib



 This Model was first developed from the SIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationship between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its influences on the economy as well as well-being of local residents.       Assumptions:   Government policies w

This Model was first developed from the SIR model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationship between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its influences on the economy as well as well-being of local residents. 

 

Assumptions:

Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;

Government policies reduces the infection and economic growth at the same time.

 


Interesting Insights:

In the first two weeks, the infected people showed an exponential growth, in another word, that’s the most important period to control the number of people who got affected. 

 

 Modelo epidemiológico simples   SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados         Clique aqui  para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo.  É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.          Dados iniciais de  infec
Modelo epidemiológico simples
SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados

Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo.  É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.


Dados iniciais de infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.
 Modelo epidemiológico simples   SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados         Clique aqui  para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo.  É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.          Dados iniciais de  infec
Modelo epidemiológico simples
SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados

Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo.  É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.


Dados iniciais de infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.
Model ini dirancang untuk membuat model tentang penyebaran Covid-19 dan vaksinasi di Kabupaten Sleman pada November 2022     Model ini dibuat untuk memenuhi tugas kelompok dari matakuliah Metode Penyelesaian Masalah dan Pemodelan, atas nama :   Sabilla Halimatus Mahmud   Nurul Widyastuti Muhammad Na
Model ini dirancang untuk membuat model tentang penyebaran Covid-19 dan vaksinasi di Kabupaten Sleman pada November 2022

Model ini dibuat untuk memenuhi tugas kelompok dari matakuliah Metode Penyelesaian Masalah dan Pemodelan, atas nama :
Sabilla Halimatus Mahmud
Nurul Widyastuti
Muhammad Najib



Economic
collapse, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a   free cash flow   (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an
Economic collapse, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover       Assumptions   Govt policy reduces infection and
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.

Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights

Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative. 




 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover       Assumptions   Govt policy reduces infection and
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.

Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights

Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative. 




 Modelo epidemiológico simples   SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados        Dados iniciais do Brasil em 04 Abr 2020    Fonte:   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/
Modelo epidemiológico simples
SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados

Dados iniciais do Brasil em 04 Abr 2020
 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

 Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a   free cash flow   (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but th
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  
Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.    Modified by Rio dan Pras
Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.

Modified by Rio dan Pras
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a   free cash flow   (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but th
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  
 Modelo epidemiológico simples   SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados         Clique aqui  para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo.  É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.          Dados iniciais de  infec
Modelo epidemiológico simples
SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados

Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo.  É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.


Dados iniciais de infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.
 Modelling of the SARS-Cov-2 viral outbreak using an SEIR model plus specific extensions to model demand for health and care resources.     The model includes biths and deaths, and migration to accommodate import and export of infected individuals from other areas.     Healthcare resources identifie
Modelling of the SARS-Cov-2 viral outbreak using an SEIR model plus specific extensions to model demand for health and care resources.

The model includes biths and deaths, and migration to accommodate import and export of infected individuals from other areas.

Healthcare resources identifies need for hospital beds and critical care.

The model is uses arrays to reflect the different impacts of modelled parameters by age and sex.