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COVID-19

Clone of Infectious Disease Model (Covid)

Doan Thi Nhat Minh
Modelling of the SARS-Cov-2 viral outbreak using an SEIR model plus specific extensions to model demand for health and care resources.
The model includes biths and deaths, and migration to accommodate import and export of infected individuals from other areas.
Healthcare resources identifies need for hospital beds and critical care.
The model is uses arrays to reflect the different impacts of modelled parameters by age and sex.

Health And Social Care Infectious Disease COVID-19 SARS-Cov-2 Coronavirus

  • 2 weeks 2 days ago

Clone of Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2

Lin Ling
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
AssumptionsGovt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative. 




COVID-19 Burnie Tasmania BMA708 Economy

  • 7 months 3 weeks ago

Clone of Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania (Yue Xiang 512994)

Lin Ling
Simple epidemiological model for Burnie, TasmaniaSIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts  

Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected. So the government's policy is to reduce infections by increasing the number of people tested and starting early. At the same time, it has slowed the economic growth (which, according to the model,  will stop for next 52 weeks).

COVID-19 Coronavirus SIR Model Government Economy Burnie Tasmania UTAS BMA708

  • 7 months 3 weeks ago

Clone of SARS-CoV-19 Modell von Lucia Vega Resto

USEK20FALL agri
Ausbreitung von SARS-CoV-19 in verschiedenen Ländern
- bitte passen Sie die Variablen über die Schieberegler weiter unten entsprechend an

Italien

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,228
    Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 0,6
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 60 000 000
    hoher Blutdruck: 0,32 (gbe-bund)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,04 (statista)
    Anzahl der Intensivbetten: 3 100


Deutschland

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,195 (bpb)
    geschätzte unentdeckte Fälle Faktor: 0,2 (deutschlandfunk)
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 83 000 000
    hoher Blutdruck: 0,26 (gbe-bund)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,2-0,28 (Herzstiftung)
   
Anzahl der Intensivbetten: 5 880


Frankreich

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,183 (statista)
    Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 0,4
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 67 000 000
    Bluthochdruck: 0,3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,1-0,2 (oecd)
   
Anzahl der Intensivbetten: 3 000


Je nach Bedarf:

    Anzahl der Begegnungen/Tag: 1 = Quarantäne, 2-3 = soziale Distanzierung , 4-6 = erschwertes soziales Leben, 7-9 = überhaupt keine Einschränkungen // Vorgabe 2
    Praktizierte Präventivmassnahmen (d.h. sich regelmässig die Hände waschen, das Gesicht nicht berühren usw.): 0.1 (niemand tut etwas) - 1 (sehr gründlich) // Vorgabe 0.8
    Aufklärung durch die Regierung: 0,1 (sehr schlecht) - 1 (sehr transparent und aufklärend) // Vorgabe 0,9
    Immunitätsrate (aufgrund fehlender Daten): 0 (man kann nicht immun werden) - 1 (wenn man es einmal hatte, wird man es nie wieder bekommen) // Vorgabe 0,4


Schlüssel

    Anfällige: Menschen sind nicht mit SARS-CoV-19 infiziert, könnten aber infiziert werden
    Infizierte: Menschen sind infiziert worden und haben die Krankheit COVID-19
    Geheilte: Die Menschen haben sich gerade von COVID-19 erholt und können es in diesem Stadium nicht mehr bekommen
    Tote: Menschen starben wegen COVID-19
    Immunisierte: Menschen wurden immun und können die Krankheit nicht mehr bekommen
    Kritischer Prozentsatz der Wiederherstellung: Überlebenschance ohne spezielle medizinische Behandlung



SARS-CoV-19 COVID-19 Corona Coronavirus Virus Disease Infection Pandemic

  • 1 month 1 day ago

Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2

Lin Ling
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
AssumptionsGovt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative. 




COVID-19 Burnie Tasmania BMA708 Economy

  • 7 months 3 weeks ago

Clone of SARS-CoV-19 model

Jingyi Qiu
SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries- please adjust variables accordingly

Italy
  • elderly population (>65): 0.228
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11
  • starting population size: 60 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.04 (statista)
  • free intensive care units: 3 100

Germany
  • elderly population (>65): 0.195 (bpb)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
  • starting population size: 83 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.26 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.2-0.28 (herzstiftung)
  • free intensive care units: 5 880

France
  • elderly population (>65): 0.183 (statista)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 3-5
  • starting population size: 67 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
  • heart disease: 0.1-0.2 (oecd)
  • free intensive care units: 3 000

As you wish
  • numbers of encounters/day: 1 = quarantine, 2-3 = practicing social distancing, 4-6 = heavy social life, 7-9 = not caring at all // default 2
  • practicing preventive measures (ie. washing hands regularly, not touching your face etc.): 0.1 (nobody does anything) - 1 (very strictly) // default 0.8
  • government elucidation: 0.1 (very bad) - 1 (highly transparent and educating) // default 0.9
  • Immunity rate (due to lacking data): 0 (you can't get immune) - 1 (once you had it you'll never get it again) // default 0.4

Key
  • Healthy: People are not infected with SARS-CoV-19 but could still get it
  • Infected: People have been infected and developed the disease COVID-19
  • Recovered: People just have recovered from COVID-19 and can't get it again in this stage
  • Dead: People died because of COVID-19
  • Immune: People got immune and can't get the disease again
  • Critical recovery percentage: Chance of survival with no special medical treatment

SARS-CoV-19 COVID-19 Corona Coronavirus Virus Disease Infection Pandemic

  • 7 months 3 weeks ago

Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2

Zilin Huang
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
AssumptionsGovt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative. 




COVID-19 Burnie Tasmania BMA708 Economy

  • 7 months 3 weeks ago

Clone of Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2

Lin Ling
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
AssumptionsGovt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative. 




COVID-19 Burnie Tasmania BMA708 Economy

  • 7 months 3 weeks ago

Clone of Complex Systems - How Burnie Tasmania dealt with Covid-19 Outbreak

Zilin Huang
This model is comparing healthy and sick residents in Burnie, Tasmania after the Covid-19 Outbreak in 2020. It will also show how the Burnie economy is effected by the disease, how the Government Health Policies are implemented and how they are enforced ASAP after the first case of Covid-19 is reported.

This model is based on the SIR, Susceptible, Infection, Recovery (or Removed) These are the three possible states related to the members of the Burnie population when a contagious decease spreads.

The Government/Government Health Policy, played a big part in the successful decrease in Covid-19 infections. The Government enforced
- No travel
- Isolation within the residents homes
- Social distancing by 1.5m
- Quarantine
- Non essential companies to be temporarily closed
- Limitations on public gatherings
- And limits on time and kilometers aloud to travel from ones home

This resulted in lower reported infection rates of Covid-19 and higher recovery rates.
* When the first case was reported the Government could have been even faster to enforce these rules to decrease the fatality rates further for the Burnie, population.  



Environment Healthcare COVID-19

  • 7 months 3 weeks ago

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