​S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution      Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers     This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model      The  Erlang distribution  is a two parameter family of continuous  probability dis
​S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution

Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers

This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model

The Erlang distribution is a two parameter family of continuous probability distributions with support . The two parameters are:

  • a positive integer 'shape' 
  • a positive real 'rate' ; sometimes the scale , the inverse of the rate is used.

 Z209 from Hartmut Bossel's System Zoo 1 p112-118. Compare with PCT Example  IM-9010

Z209 from Hartmut Bossel's System Zoo 1 p112-118. Compare with PCT Example IM-9010

Crea un Bucle de Realimentación Negativa, modelando el llenado de un vaso con agua. Universidad del Cauca.  Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano  curso:  Enlace Curso en Moodle   Videos ejemplos:  Enlace a la lista de videos del curso youtube
Crea un Bucle de Realimentación Negativa, modelando el llenado de un vaso con agua.
Universidad del Cauca. 
Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano
From HBR study, 2014; combined with Solow Growth Model, explains why business seeks technological solutions.  Yet this is not sustainable, as there is a limit to the number of STEM-trained individuals to create technological solutions.
From HBR study, 2014; combined with Solow Growth Model, explains why business seeks technological solutions.  Yet this is not sustainable, as there is a limit to the number of STEM-trained individuals to create technological solutions.
    Dynamic simulation modelers are particularly interested in understanding and being able to distinguish between the behavior of stocks and flows that result from internal interactions and those that result from external forces acting on a system.  For some time modelers have been particularly int

Dynamic simulation modelers are particularly interested in understanding and being able to distinguish between the behavior of stocks and flows that result from internal interactions and those that result from external forces acting on a system.  For some time modelers have been particularly interested in internal interactions that result in stable oscillations in the absence of any external forces acting on a system.  The model in this last scenario was independently developed by Alfred Lotka (1924) and Vito Volterra (1926).  Lotka was interested in understanding internal dynamics that might explain oscillations in moth and butterfly populations and the parasitoids that attack them.  Volterra was interested in explaining an increase in coastal populations of predatory fish and a decrease in their prey that was observed during World War I when human fishing pressures on the predator species declined.  Both discovered that a relatively simple model is capable of producing the cyclical behaviors they observed.  Since that time, several researchers have been able to reproduce the modeling dynamics in simple experimental systems consisting of only predators and prey.  It is now generally recognized that the model world that Lotka and Volterra produced is too simple to explain the complexity of most and predator-prey dynamics in nature.  And yet, the model significantly advanced our understanding of the critical role of feedback in predator-prey interactions and in feeding relationships that result in community dynamics.The Lotka–Volterra model makes a number of assumptions about the environment and evolution of the predator and prey populations:

1. The prey population finds ample food at all times.
2. The food supply of the predator population depends entirely on the size of the prey population.
3. The rate of change of population is proportional to its size.
4. During the process, the environment does not change in favour of one species and genetic adaptation is inconsequential.
5. Predators have limitless appetite.
As differential equations are used, the solution is deterministic and continuous. This, in turn, implies that the generations of both the predator and prey are continually overlapping.[23]

Prey
When multiplied out, the prey equation becomes
dx/dtαx - βxy
 The prey are assumed to have an unlimited food supply, and to reproduce exponentially unless subject to predation; this exponential growth is represented in the equation above by the term αx. The rate of predation upon the prey is assumed to be proportional to the rate at which the predators and the prey meet; this is represented above by βxy. If either x or y is zero then there can be no predation.

With these two terms the equation above can be interpreted as: the change in the prey's numbers is given by its own growth minus the rate at which it is preyed upon.

Predators

The predator equation becomes

dy/dt =  - 

In this equation, {\displaystyle \displaystyle \delta xy} represents the growth of the predator population. (Note the similarity to the predation rate; however, a different constant is used as the rate at which the predator population grows is not necessarily equal to the rate at which it consumes the prey). {\displaystyle \displaystyle \gamma y} represents the loss rate of the predators due to either natural death or emigration; it leads to an exponential decay in the absence of prey.

Hence the equation expresses the change in the predator population as growth fueled by the food supply, minus natural death.


This is a simple population model designed to illustrate some of the concepts of stock and flow diagrams and simulation modelling.    Adjust the population, birth fraction and life expectancy below based on real data for Singapore
This is a simple population model designed to illustrate some of the concepts of stock and flow diagrams and simulation modelling.

Adjust the population, birth fraction and life expectancy below based on real data for Singapore
 WIP based on Geoffrey Brennan's Selection and the Currency of Reward chapter expanded from  IM-396  

WIP based on Geoffrey Brennan's Selection and the Currency of Reward chapter expanded from IM-396 

This is to help understand the way a modern university system works.
This is to help understand the way a modern university system works.
  The lack of recognition of efforts is a plague of society, an immense amount of effort goes unrecognized. Meaning there is constant input on behalf of an individual with a varying degree of output. This is a highly concerning situation for the system as a whole. For a positive feedback loop to tak
 The lack of recognition of efforts is a plague of society, an immense amount of effort goes unrecognized. Meaning there is constant input on behalf of an individual with a varying degree of output. This is a highly concerning situation for the system as a whole. For a positive feedback loop to take place, inputs must balance with outputs, respectively. 

In this model, inputs balance with outputs creating a dynamic contribution.

Crea un modelo de propagación de una epidemia en una población constante. Acople de Bucles Universidad del Cauca.  Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano  curso:  Enlace Curso en Moodle   Videos ejemplos:  Enlace a la lista de videos del curso youtube
Crea un modelo de propagación de una epidemia en una población constante. Acople de Bucles
Universidad del Cauca. 
Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano
 Perceptual Control Theory Model of Balancing an Inverted Pendulum. See  Kennaway's slides  on Robotics. as well as PCT example WIP notes. Compare with  IM-1831  from Z209 from Hartmut Bossel's System Zoo 1 p112-118

Perceptual Control Theory Model of Balancing an Inverted Pendulum. See Kennaway's slides on Robotics. as well as PCT example WIP notes. Compare with IM-1831 from Z209 from Hartmut Bossel's System Zoo 1 p112-118

Model presented by Jeff Klemens at GC3 conference, Cincinnati,  OH on May 15th 2018 as part of keynote address "Active learning spaces as a catalyst for institution-wide change in teaching and learning"    Feel free to clone and modify this model, but please share your modifications and discoveries
Model presented by Jeff Klemens at GC3 conference, Cincinnati,  OH on May 15th 2018 as part of keynote address "Active learning spaces as a catalyst for institution-wide change in teaching and learning"

Feel free to clone and modify this model, but please share your modifications and discoveries with me! I can be contacted via my university homepage: https://sites.philau.edu/KlemensJ/  
 Effect of rewards on the selection promotion and retirement of scholars in universities. Based on Geoffrey Brennan's Selection and the Currency of Reward chapter10 in The Theory of Institutional Design ed. RG Goodwin Cambridge University Press 1996 See also  IM-2016

Effect of rewards on the selection promotion and retirement of scholars in universities. Based on Geoffrey Brennan's Selection and the Currency of Reward chapter10 in The Theory of Institutional Design ed. RG Goodwin Cambridge University Press 1996 See also IM-2016

looking at the problem of teaching multi curriculum
looking at the problem of teaching multi curriculum
 This map is only of use to me, while I'm trying to gain more insights and playing with this tool: InsightMaker

This map is only of use to me, while I'm trying to gain more insights and playing with this tool: InsightMaker

 
 
 
 
 This paints a broad picture for my non-profit of how tutoring helps disadvantaged youth and, with the right jump-start from a caring individual (R1 point), how learning can get learning and skill begets further skill. I appreciate any feedback to modifications because they might shape progr

This paints a broad picture for my non-profit of how tutoring helps disadvantaged youth and, with the right jump-start from a caring individual (R1 point), how learning can get learning and skill begets further skill. I appreciate any feedback to modifications because they might shape program direction.

Future iterations will show the low skilled isolated individual gets stuck in a cycle of "no-growth." I would also like to explore the dynamics of how the learner reduces dependence on the tutor.

Model of positive and negative behaviour within the classroom
Model of positive and negative behaviour within the classroom
A model of ideal affects of classroom reward system.
A model of ideal affects of classroom reward system.
           This version of the   CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION   model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available).  Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format.  Re
This version of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available).  Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format.  Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs.  This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics.  Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature.
Provided further interest and funding, this  basic capability model may further de-abstracted and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.
Simple population dynamics examples based on ​Lotka-Volterra equations.
Simple population dynamics examples based on ​Lotka-Volterra equations.
Escape behavior often results in more stress than one escapes from. @ LinkedIn ,  Twitter ,  YouTube
Escape behavior often results in more stress than one escapes from.