Sistema de intervenção do Banco Central para regular a cotação do dólar. O sistema tem um loop que conduz naturalmente ao equilíbrio, isto é, a COTAÇÃO ATUAL tende, com o tempo, à COTAÇÃO DESEJADA pelo BC.  Entretanto devido ao TEMPO DE REAÇÃO DO MERCADO, o sistema OSCILA mas ainda assim tende ao e
Sistema de intervenção do Banco Central para regular a cotação do dólar. O sistema tem um loop que conduz naturalmente ao equilíbrio, isto é, a COTAÇÃO ATUAL tende, com o tempo, à COTAÇÃO DESEJADA pelo BC.  Entretanto devido ao TEMPO DE REAÇÃO DO MERCADO, o sistema OSCILA mas ainda assim tende ao equilíbrio.  Na verdade, o que faz a COTAÇÃO ATUAL oscilar, é a relação entre o TEMPO DE REAÇÃO DO MERCADO e o TEMPO DE AJUSTE da intervenção do BC. A frequência de oscilação é tanto maior quanto maior for a relação entre o TEMPO DE REAÇÃO DO MERCADO e o TEMPO DE AJUSTE do BC.
Escape behavior often results in more stress than one escapes from. @ LinkedIn ,  Twitter ,  YouTube
Escape behavior often results in more stress than one escapes from.
11 months ago
 Ejemplo Básico de Retrasos de Material   Universidad del Cauca.  Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano  curso:  Enlace Curso en Moodle   Videos ejemplos:  Enlace a la lista de videos del curso youtube
Ejemplo Básico de Retrasos de Material
Universidad del Cauca. 
Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano
 Ejemplo Básico de Retrasos de Material Nivel 3 - Cosechas   Universidad del Cauca.  Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano  curso:  Enlace Curso en Moodle   Videos ejemplos:  Enlace a la lista de videos del curso youtube
Ejemplo Básico de Retrasos de Material Nivel 3 - Cosechas
Universidad del Cauca. 
Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano
Model of positive and negative behaviour within the classroom
Model of positive and negative behaviour within the classroom
 Ejemplo de Carbono 14 con un bucle de realimentación negativa  Universidad del Cauca.  Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano  curso:  Enlace Curso en Moodle   Videos ejemplos:  Enlace a la lista de videos del curso youtube
Ejemplo de Carbono 14 con un bucle de realimentación negativa
Universidad del Cauca. 
Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano
This shows the effect of course prerequisites on graduation rates.
This shows the effect of course prerequisites on graduation rates.
This is a simple population model designed to illustrate some of the concepts of stock and flow diagrams and simulation modelling.    We replaced the variable "Life Expectancy" with a converter that allows us to indicate how life expectancy declines over time with an increasing population (due to sc
This is a simple population model designed to illustrate some of the concepts of stock and flow diagrams and simulation modelling.

We replaced the variable "Life Expectancy" with a converter that allows us to indicate how life expectancy declines over time with an increasing population (due to scarcity of resources, urban crowding, disease, etc) assuming no further technological or medical advancements.
           This version 8B of the   CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION   model. A net Benefit ROI has been added. The Compare results feature allows comparison of alternative intervention portfolios.  Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified forma
This version 8B of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model. A net Benefit ROI has been added. The Compare results feature allows comparison of alternative intervention portfolios.  Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format.  Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs.  This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics.  Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature.
Provided further interest and funding, this  basic capability model may further developed and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.
Шөнийн цагт төрөлт бага, үхэл их байхаар LookUp оруулж өгсөн тоо толгойн загвар юм.
Шөнийн цагт төрөлт бага, үхэл их байхаар LookUp оруулж өгсөн тоо толгойн загвар юм.
Crea un Bucle de Realimentación Negativa, modelando el llenado de un vaso con agua. Esta versión incluye el concepto de manejo de tabla o no liberalidad. Universidad del Cauca.  Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano  curso:  Enlace Curso en Moodle   Videos ejemplos:  Enlace a la lista de videos del c
Crea un Bucle de Realimentación Negativa, modelando el llenado de un vaso con agua. Esta versión incluye el concepto de manejo de tabla o no liberalidad.
Universidad del Cauca. 
Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano
Crea un Bucle de Realimentación Negativa, modelando el llenado de un vaso con agua. Universidad del Cauca.  Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano  curso:  Enlace Curso en Moodle   Videos ejemplos:  Enlace a la lista de videos del curso youtube
Crea un Bucle de Realimentación Negativa, modelando el llenado de un vaso con agua.
Universidad del Cauca. 
Profesor: Miguel Angel Niño Zambrano
    Clone of Bio103 Predator-Prey Model ("Lotka'Volterra")  Tags:  Education ,  Chaos ,  Ecology ,  Biology ,  Population   Thanks to Insight Author:  John Petersen       Edits by Andy Long     Everything that follows the dashes was created by John Petersen (or at least came from his Insight model).

Clone of Bio103 Predator-Prey Model ("Lotka'Volterra")
Thanks to Insight Author: John Petersen

Edits by Andy Long

Everything that follows the dashes was created by John Petersen (or at least came from his Insight model). I just wanted to make a few comments.

We are looking at Hare and Lynx, of course. Clone this insight, and change the names.

Then read the text below, to get acquainted with one of the most important and well-known examples of a simple system of differential equations in all of mathematics.

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/mat375/mathematica/Lotka-Volterra.nb
------------------------------------------------------------

Dynamic simulation modelers are particularly interested in understanding and being able to distinguish between the behavior of stocks and flows that result from internal interactions and those that result from external forces acting on a system. 

For some time modelers have been particularly interested in internal interactions that result in stable oscillations in the absence of any external forces acting on a system. 

The model in this last scenario was independently developed by Alfred Lotka (1924) and Vito Volterra (1926).  Lotka was interested in understanding internal dynamics that might explain oscillations in moth and butterfly populations and the parasitoids that attack them.  Volterra was interested in explaining an increase in coastal populations of predatory fish and a decrease in their prey that was observed during World War I when human fishing pressures on the predator species declined. 

Both discovered that a relatively simple model is capable of producing the cyclical behaviors they observed. 

Since that time, several researchers have been able to reproduce the modeling dynamics in simple experimental systems consisting of only predators and prey.  It is now generally recognized that the model world that Lotka and Volterra produced is too simple to explain the complexity of most predator-prey dynamics in nature.  And yet, the model significantly advanced our understanding of the critical role of feedback in predator-prey interactions and in feeding relationships that result in community dynamics.

The Lotka–Volterra model makes a number of assumptions about the environment and evolution of the predator and prey populations:

1. The prey population finds ample food at all times.
2. The food supply of the predator population depends entirely on the size of the prey population.
3. The rate of change of population is proportional to its size.
4. During the process, the environment does not change in favour of one species and genetic adaptation is inconsequential.
5. Predators have limitless appetite.

As differential equations are used, the solution is deterministic and continuous. This, in turn, implies that the generations of both the predator and prey are continually overlapping.[23]

Prey
When multiplied out, the prey equation becomes
dx/dtαx - βxy
 The prey are assumed to have an unlimited food supply, and to reproduce exponentially unless subject to predation; this exponential growth is represented in the equation above by the term αx. The rate of predation upon the prey is assumed to be proportional to the rate at which the predators and the prey meet; this is represented above by βxy. If either x or y is zero then there can be no predation.

With these two terms the equation above can be interpreted as: the change in the prey's numbers is given by its own growth minus the rate at which it is preyed upon.

Predators

The predator equation becomes

dy/dt =  - 

In this equation, {\displaystyle \displaystyle \delta xy} represents the growth of the predator population. (Note the similarity to the predation rate; however, a different constant is used as the rate at which the predator population grows is not necessarily equal to the rate at which it consumes the prey). {\displaystyle \displaystyle \gamma y} represents the loss rate of the predators due to either natural death or emigration; it leads to an exponential decay in the absence of prey.

Hence the equation expresses the change in the predator population as growth fueled by the food supply, minus natural death.


Exemplo de Laço de Alimentação Negativo
Exemplo de Laço de Alimentação Negativo
This is an example of a story line that ends with a running simulation.
This is an example of a story line that ends with a running simulation.
Summary of Thorstein Veblen's 1916 Book The Higher Learning in America  pdf
Summary of Thorstein Veblen's 1916 Book The Higher Learning in America pdf
  ​Predator-prey
models are the building masses of the bio-and environments as bio
masses are become out of their asset masses. Species contend, advance and
scatter essentially to look for assets to support their battle for their very
presence. Contingent upon their particular settings of uses, they

​Predator-prey models are the building masses of the bio-and environments as bio masses are become out of their asset masses. Species contend, advance and scatter essentially to look for assets to support their battle for their very presence. Contingent upon their particular settings of uses, they can take the types of asset resource-consumer, plant-herbivore, parasite-have, tumor cells- immune structure, vulnerable irresistible collaborations, and so on. They manage the general misfortune win connections and thus may have applications outside of biological systems. At the point when focused connections are painstakingly inspected, they are regularly in actuality a few types of predator-prey communication in simulation. 

 Looking at Lotka-Volterra Model:

The well known Italian mathematician Vito Volterra proposed a differential condition model to clarify the watched increment in predator fish in the Adriatic Sea during World War I. Simultaneously in the United States, the conditions contemplated by Volterra were determined freely by Alfred Lotka (1925) to portray a theoretical synthetic response wherein the concoction fixations waver. The Lotka-Volterra model is the least complex model of predator-prey communications. It depends on direct per capita development rates, which are composed as f=b−py and g=rx−d. 

A detailed explanation of the parameters:

  • The parameter b is the development rate of species x (the prey) without communication with species y (the predators). Prey numbers are reduced by these collaborations: The per capita development rate diminishes (here directly) with expanding y, conceivably getting to be negative. 
  • The parameter p estimates the effect of predation on x˙/x. 
  • The parameter d is the death rate of species y without connection with species x. 
  • The term rx means the net rate of development of the predator population in light of the size of the prey population.

Reference:

http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Predator-prey_model

 

           Despite a mature field of inquiry, frustrated educational policy makers face a crisis characterized by little to no clear research-based guidance and significant budget limitations --  in the face of too often marginal or unexpectedly deleterious achievement impacts. As such, education pe
Despite a mature field of inquiry, frustrated educational policy makers face a crisis characterized by little to no clear research-based guidance and significant budget limitations --  in the face of too often marginal or unexpectedly deleterious achievement impacts. As such, education performance has been acknowledged as a complex system and a general call in the literature for causal models has been sounded. This modeling effort represents a strident first step in the development of an evidence-based causal hypothesis: an hypothesis that captures the widely acknowledged complex interactions and multitude of cited influencing factors. This non-piecemeal, causal, reflection of extant knowledge engages a neuro-cognitive definition of students.  Through capture of complex dynamics, it enables comparison of different mixes of interventions to estimate net academic achievement impact for the lifetime of a single cohort of students. Results nominally capture counter-intuitive unintended consequences: consequences that too often render policy interventions effete. Results are indexed on Hattie Effect Sizes, but rely on research identified causal mechanisms for effect propagation. Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format.  Relative magnitudes of impact have been  roughly adjusted to Hattie Ranking Standards (calibration): a non-causal evidence source. This is a demonstration model and seeks to exemplify content that would be engaged in a full or sufficient model development effort.  Budget & time constraints required significant simplifying assumptions. These assumptions mitigate both the completeness & accuracy of the outputs. Features serve to symbolize & illustrate the value and benefits of causal modeling as a performance tool.
Focus on verbal/linguistic and logical/mathematical intelligences robs us of the wealth untapped in the remaining six intelligences: interpersonal, intrapersonal, spacial, musical, naturalistic, and kinesthetic.    Howard Gardner's Theory of Multiple Intelligences (MI) proposes that cognition isn't
Focus on verbal/linguistic and logical/mathematical intelligences robs us of the wealth untapped in the remaining six intelligences: interpersonal, intrapersonal, spacial, musical, naturalistic, and kinesthetic.

Howard Gardner's Theory of Multiple Intelligences (MI) proposes that cognition isn't unitary and that individuals cannot be described as having a single, quantifiable intelligence.  Published in 1983, his theory stipulated seven of which one more was added a year later.

Note: Intelligence is defined as the ability to solve problems, the ability to create problems to be solved, and the ability to create a product or a service that is of value to one's culture.