Book summary of Albert O Hirschman's 1982 book, explaining cycles of collective public action.
Shifting involvements
Causal loop representation of Keynesian macroeconomics taken from the System Dynamics literature, specifically Henize 1972 MIT D-memo D-1717. See also Nathan Forrester's SF CLD Diagram from his PhD IM-165714
Keynes theory of employment and inflation
This model compares direct exchange prices to money prices. It demonstrates the distortion that monetary expansion or contraction has on the information contained in monetary pricing.
Clone of Pricing Model
From Bill Mitchell and Warren Mosler December2018 billy blog entry and mosler's MMT white paper (google docs) 2019. Some highly aggregated stocks and flows and boundaries introduced.
Clone of The essence of MMT
UBI diagram from Insight 1 linked to salutogenesis, life course trajectory and more detail on Child Development WIP
Employment and Welfare Interventions Effect on the first 1000 days 2
WIP Book summary of Frank Stilwell's 2019 Book, The Political Economy of Inequality, Polity Press podcast and slides
Political Economy of Inequality
During the 'big recession' many governments have
deliberately repressed salaries, usually via structural reforms, in order to
gain competitivity. However, repression of salaries increases inequality,
social discontent and often has counterintuitive effects. Salaries are a cost
for companies, but they are also the basis for the demand for the goods and services
they offer: people with little income cannot afford them. Scientific studies
have shown repeatedly that economic growth generated via salary increases does
not endanger the creation of employment, but rather reinforces
it. In most countries, the 'positive effect of salary increases' eclipses any
possible negative effects on export competitivity and even any detrimental
effect on investment. A good example of such a study is the work of ONARAN and OBST
on Wage-led Growth in the EU15 Member States (2016). This positive dynamic has been highlighted in the
model by prominent arrows. The policy implications for governments are clear!
Dynamik Linking Wage Increases to Higher Growth and Profits
HANDY Model of Societal Collapse from Ecological Economics
Paper see also D Cunha's model at IM-15085
Clone of Clone of Human and Nature Dynamics of Societal Inequality
Simple causal loop diagram of a simple interest savings account.
Causal loop diagram of savings account - simple interest
From Walrave
ISDC2014 paper Counteracting the success trap in publically owned corporations. Similar to the ordinary (efficiency focussed) and dynamic capabilities (explore)
insight described by David Teece
See also evolution and brain control insight
Explore or Exploit
This model shows the operation of a simple economy with two modifications made to Model 2 -- 1) feedback from production rate to consumption rate and 2) the use of a fractional rate input for calculating consumption rate.
In summary, lower fractional rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher levels of Savings.
Simple Economy: Model 3
WIP Ideas from Science Special Issue May 2014
Clone of The Science of Inequality
WIP of Rammelt's 2019 System Dynamics Review Article which has STELLA and Minsky software versions as supplements. Compare with the older IM-2011 version
Clone of Simplified Keen Goodwin Minsky Financial Instability model
Here I've translated the macoreconomic rule 'SPENDING = INCOME = OUTPUT, WHICH DRIVES EMPLOYMENT' into a negative feedback loop by adding an explicit goal of Output and Employment. As shown in 'Investment and Output 1', all the income earned has to be spent to maintain output and employment. Any shorfall in spending can be made up by any of the three sectors that contribute to total output. However, when spending/investment by the private sector is too small to maintain the required level of overall spending and the exports do not contribute enough to compensate for this shortfall then only the government can save the day through Net Spending, i.e. spending more than it collects in tax revenue. Taxation at any rate, according to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) does not serve the purpose of financing spending but can be used legitimately to slow down an overheating economy. I have not taken into account 'structural reforms', which are often subject to the 'Fallacy of Composition' and of dubious value, at least in a recessive climate, according to MMT.
Investment and Output 2
Very basic stock-flow diagram of simple interest with table and graph output in interest, bank account and savings development per year. Initial deposit, interest rate, yearly deposit and withdrawal, and initial balance bank account can all be modified.
Clone of Stock-Flow diagram of savings account - simple interest
Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.
Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.
Clone of Why Nations Fail
Fig.5 Generic resource allocation structure from Khalil Saeed and Oleg Pavlov's Dynastic Cycles SD model paper See also the SD Simulation Model Insight
Dynastic Cycles Structure
Adapted from Hartmut Bossel's "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."
Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for the elderly, pensions dynamics, etc.
Clone of Clone of Z602 Population with four age groups
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION
The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed
Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)
The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks
See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)
Clone of THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES CHAOTIC TURBULENCE (+controls)
From Schluter et al 2017 article A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems COMSeS2017 video. See also Balke and Gilbert 2014 JASSS article How do agents make decisions? (recommended by Kurt Kreuger U of S)
Modelling human behaviour (MoHuB)
See extension Goodwin02 at IM-172145
Clone of Goodwin Minsky Simulation Keen Economic Dynamics Aug2019
HANDY Model of Societal Collapse from Ecological Economics
Paper see also D Cunha's model at IM-15085
Clone of Human and Nature Dynamics of Societal Inequality
Based on the Market and Price simulation model in System Zoo 3, Z504. In this model the profit calculations were not realistic. They were based on the per unit profit, which does not take items not sold into account. Also the model was not very clear on profit since it was included in the total production costs and consequently in the unit costs and subsequently profit was calculated by subtracting unit costs of the market price. Thus profit had a double layer which does not make the model better accessible. I have tried to remedy both in this simplified version.
Simplified and changed Z504 Market and Price - System Zoo 3