Economics | Insight Maker

Cutbacks can have a counterintuitive effect. The government knows precisely how much it custs in spending. However, it cannot know the extent to which tax revenues shrink in a non-linear complex economic system as the economy contracts. In addition, the treasury has to spend more as automatic stabilizers activate and payments are made to an increasing number of unemployed workers. The effect of this is that initially the deficit shrinks, but later it rises as tax revenues fall short of expectations and more spending takes place. The ironic part is that often the very indicator that promted austerity measurs, the defcit to GDP ratio, becomes worse than it was at the outset. We could observe this in Spain and Portugal where planned deficits have been repeatedly missed, as austerity measures (fiscal cutbacks) were introduced to deal with the effects of the 2008 financial crisis.

CUTBACKS OFTEN MAKE FISCAL DEFICITS WORSE

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Simple causal loop diagram of a compound interest savings account in Dutch.

Causaal verband diagram sparen - samengestelde interest

Henny van Dongen

THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

Clone of THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES CHAOTIC TURBULENCE (+controls)

Sugiharto

Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen's illustration of Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis "stability begets instability". This can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.

Clone of Minsky Financial Instability Model

Luis Fernando Barros

Simple causal loop diagram of a simple interest savings account in Dutch.

Causaal verband diagram van een spaarrekening - enkelvoudige interest

Henny van Dongen

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Climate, Weather, Ecology, Economics, Population, Welfare, Energy, Policy, CO2, Carbon Cycle, GHG (green house gasses, combined effects)

As general population is composed of 85% with an education level of a 12 grader or less (a 17 year old), a simple block of components concerning the health of the planet needs to be broken down into simple blocks.

Perhaps this picture will show the basics on which to vote for a sustained healthy future

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Clone of Climate Sector Boundary Diagram of Guy Lakeman

Taylor Nicole Koontz

Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.

Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.

Clone of Why Nations Fail

Nate Veldkamp

Overview

The model simulates how logging in with tourism(mountain biking) in Derby Tasmania.

How the model works.

Trees grow, loggers cut them in order to sell them because of demand for Timber.

Mountain cyclist depends on satisfaction and expectation. Satisfaction and Expectation depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users. Local Business is influenced by the timber and number of Mountain Cyclist. Employment is influenced by the number of mountain cyclist and logging activity.

Simulation of Mountain Cyclist vs logging

Shu Wang

WIP Dynamic map from Steve Keen's Minsky at 100 Lecture video and slides and later Emergent Macroeconomics papers

Minsky Instability from Macrodefinitions Keen

Geoff McDonnell

Very basic stock-flow diagram of compound interest with table and graph output in interest and savings development per year. Initial deposit, interest rate, yearly deposit and withdrawal can all be modified in Dutch.

Voorraad-stroom diagram - sparen - samengestelde interest

Henny van Dongen

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Clone of Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.02

Vera Makarova

$This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse the fractional rate of saving.) In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the l$

This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse the fractional rate of saving.)

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the long-run.

Simple Economy: Model 8 Alternative

Jim Berger

Unfortunately, this model only produces the illusion of functioning, but I did manage to get it to give me the graph. However, because of the use of flows, if you change the time step to and the simulation length to anything other than the same numbers, you'll find the graph showing something that looks more exponential. This is due to the function referencing itself in regards to time, so inevitably each time consumption grows it changes the outcome on the other side of the equation. Still, this is a convincing mock up. I added a "45 degree" line so that one could conceivably see (and also change) the difference made by altering the level of autonomous consumption.

Clone of Keynesian Macroeconomics

Runy Calmera

Extremely basic stock-flow diagram of compound interest with table and graph output in interest and savings development per year. Initial deposit, interest rate, yearly deposit and withdrawal can all be modified in Dutch.

Stock-Flow diagram of savings account - compound interest

Henny van Dongen

$This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse the fractional rate of saving.) In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the l$

This model shows the operation of a simple economy. It demonstrates the effect of changes in the fractional rate of consumption (or the converse the fractional rate of saving.)

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the long-run.

Clone of Clone of Simple Economy: Model 8

Enrique

Map of SD work on Samuelson's 1939 model of the business cycle. See also D-memo D-2311-2 Gilbert Low 1976 and IM-165713. An alernative to the Ch 26 Macroeconomics textbook exposition. From Gil Low's Multiplier Accelerator Model of Business Cycles, Ch 4 of Elements of the System Dynamics Method Book edited by Jorgen Randers 1976 (MIT Press) and 1980 (Productivity Press)

Samuelson multiplier accelerator model

Geoff McDonnell

THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

WORLD2020 to PLANET2020

Guy Lakeman

11

Se realiza un diagnóstico de los modelos de gestión de conocimiento que realiza las empresas de desarrollo de software en la ciudad de Medellin, Colombia.

¿Qué importancia tiene la GC en los procesos de desarrollo de software?

La ingeniería de software es un área en constante evolución, que se basa en la generación de conocimiento, la investigación, la experiencia teórica y práctica obtenida de las organizaciones, las comunidades y de las personas que brindan sus aportes a este proceso evolutivo.

La Gestion de Conocimiento en Empresas de Desarrollo de Software en Medellin

Douglas Urrea Ocampo

This model compares direct exchange prices to money prices. It demonstrates the distortion that monetary expansion or contraction has on the information contained in monetary pricing.

Clone of Pricing Model

Randa

WIP Clone of Conceptualizing Capitalism Insight to summarise Thorstein Veblen's writings on the Nature of Capital and other Institutional economics concepts

Veblen Nature of Capital

Geoff McDonnell

4

This model tries to replicate the economy as is considered in LTG "Limits to Growth" by Meadows et al.

Clone of Simple Economy: Model 5

Egidio Bernini

Clone of NATIONAL DEBT MODEL

Nilo Guimaraes

Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.

Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.

Clone of Why Nations Fail

Luzi Schucan

On the occasion of th G20-meeting in Toronto, the German Economics minister Herr Schaüble said that without restoring confidence it would not be possible to get consumer spending and business investment going. Similar remarks were made by David Cameron and Señor Zapatero of Spain. All maintain that confidence is a pre-requisite to get growth going and that, therefore, it was imperative to reduce fiscal deficits. Reducing the fiscal deficit will restore confidence at first. However, reducing the deficit very quickly will introduce a dynamic that may cause the economy to decline - and perhaps depress consumers demand even further. It will actually destroy confidence: few businesses are inclined to invest in a shrinking economy. Cutting the deficit too rapidly or too steeply can lead to a confidence trap.

NOTE: A big experiment is now taking place in the UK - the government has cut public spending severely! Will this lead to hardship and, perhaps, social unrest?

Confidence Trap and Growth

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Economics Models