The statement that there can be no economic activity
without  energy and that fossil fuels are
finite contrasts with the fact that money is not finite and can be created by governments
via their central banks at zero marginal cost whenever needed.

 An important fact about COAL, GAS and OIL (even
wh
The statement that there can be no economic activity without  energy and that fossil fuels are finite contrasts with the fact that money is not finite and can be created by governments via their central banks at zero marginal cost whenever needed.

An important fact about COAL, GAS and OIL (even when produced via fracking) is that their net energy ratios are falling rapidly. In other words the energy needed to extract a given quantity of fossil fuels is constantly increasing. This ratio (Energy Invested on Energy Returned - EIOER) provides yet another warning that we can no longer rely on fossil fuels to power our economies. We cannot wait until the ratio falls to 1/1 before we invest seriously in alternative sources of energy, because by then industrial society as we know it doday will have ceased to exist. 

PS: A link between growth in energy consumption and GDP growth is clearly illustrated on slide 13 of Gail Tverberg's presentaion entitled ''Oops! The world economy depends on an energy-related bubble''. In fact, the slide shows that growth in energy consumption usually precedes GDP growth.

https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/oops-debt-bubble-10_30_15.pdf

  Overview  A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.     How the model works.   Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.  Wit
Overview
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

How the model works.
Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.
With mountain bkie visits.  This depends on past experience and recommendations.  Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users.  Park capacity limits the number of users.  
Interesting insights
It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking.  By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved.  A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers.  Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking
 Model supporting research of investment vs. austerity implications. Please refer to  Modern Money & Public Purpose Video .

Model supporting research of investment vs. austerity implications. Please refer to Modern Money & Public Purpose Video.

You've probably heard the comment "It's the economy stupid!" Well I've finally concluded that when it comes to the economy "It's stupidity stupid!" might be a more appropriate phrase. @ LinkedIn ,  Twitter ,  YouTube
You've probably heard the comment "It's the economy stupid!" Well I've finally concluded that when it comes to the economy "It's stupidity stupid!" might be a more appropriate phrase.
'Efficiencyism’  can be described as a blind belief in the effectiveness
of efficiency measures without taking into account circumstances and the wider context.   The
graph on the left shows how the frequent use of the term 'efficiency' at the level of local interactons can lead to the emergence of
'Efficiencyism’  can be described as a blind belief in the effectiveness of efficiency measures without taking into account circumstances and the wider context.   The graph on the left shows how the frequent use of the term 'efficiency' at the level of local interactons can lead to the emergence of  'efficiencyism' through upward causation, denoted by the arrows pointing upwards.  However, there is also downward causation from the global level depicted by the red arrows which can increase the blind application of efficiency measures at the local level. In other words, efficiency for the sake of efficiency becomes a dominant idea.  The tyrannical influence of 'eficiencyism' affects all of us to varying degrees and unfortunately can often have very negative side effects, such as an increase in unemployment, social injustice and even increase inequality.  Of  course, well thought out efficiency improvements can also bring great  benefits.   I recommend reading an excellent article by Dr. Charles Chandler, who explains the term 'efficiencyism' with some excellent examples and also points to some  of its undesirable effects.

http://www.ageofoe.com/010-efficiencyism-holds-us-back/

A simple model of economic growth where a government taxes the economy, and spends it on capital and revenue goods.
A simple model of economic growth where a government taxes the economy, and spends it on capital and revenue goods.
The statement that there can be no economic activity
without  energy and that fossil fuels are
finite contrasts with the fact that money is not finite and can be created by governments
via their central banks at zero marginal cost whenever needed.

 An important fact about COAL, GAS and OIL (even
wh
The statement that there can be no economic activity without  energy and that fossil fuels are finite contrasts with the fact that money is not finite and can be created by governments via their central banks at zero marginal cost whenever needed.

An important fact about COAL, GAS and OIL (even when produced via fracking) is that their net energy ratios are falling rapidly. In other words the energy needed to extract a given quantity of fossil fuels is constantly increasing. This ratio (Energy Invested on Energy Returned - EIOER) provides yet another warning that we can no longer rely on fossil fuels to power our economies. We cannot wait until the ratio falls to 1/1 before we invest seriously in alternative sources of energy, because by then industrial society as we know it doday will have ceased to exist. 

PS: A link between growth in energy consumption and GDP growth is clearly illustrated on slide 13 of Gail Tverberg's presentaion entitled ''Oops! The world economy depends on an energy-related bubble''. In fact, the slide shows that growth in energy consumption usually precedes GDP growth.

https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/oops-debt-bubble-10_30_15.pdf

    INTRODUCTION   

 This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID
19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health
policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure)
affect the local economy.  This model has 13 positive loo

INTRODUCTION

This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID 19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure) affect the local economy.  This model has 13 positive loops and seven negative loops.  Government response is dependent on the number of reported COVID-19 cases which in turn thought to be dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered from COVID 19 and dead. Economic activity is dependent on the economic growth rate, increased in online shopping, increased in unemployment, number of people who do not obey the rules, COVID 19 cases and health policies.

 ASSUMPTIONS

 · Both infection and economic growth is reduced by enforcing government policies

 · However, the negative effect of government policies is reduced by the number of people who do not obey government health policies

 · Govt policies are enforced when the reported COVID-19 case are 10 or greater.

 ·     Number of COVID cases reported is dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered and dead.

 ·   The higher number of COVID-19 cases have a negative effect on local economy. This phenomena is known as negative signalling. 

 ·   Government policies have a negative effect on economic activity because health policies limit both social and economic activities which directly or indirectly affect the economy in Burnie .  

 ·  This negative effect is somewhat reduced by the increase in online shopping and the number of people who do not obey heath rules.

 INTERESTING INSIGHTS

The test ratings seem to play a vital role in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. Higher Rates of COVID testings decrease the number of COVID 19 deaths and number of infected. This is because higher rates of testing accelerate the government involvement (as the government intervention is triggered earlier, 10 COVID cases mark is reached earlier). Delaying the government intervention by reducing the COVID testing rates increases the death rates and number of infected. 

Increased testing rates allow the figures (deaths, susceptible, infected) to reach a plateau quickly. 





Scratch build of a stock-flow consistent model of a closed economy, based on a current transactions matrix
Scratch build of a stock-flow consistent model of a closed economy, based on a current transactions matrix
Microeconomic measures can produce counterintuitive
'emergent' effects at the macro or systemic level. The commendable act of
saving money by individuals during uncertain economic times has the perverse macroeconomic
effect of making a recession  worse: in aggregate there will be less money availabl
Microeconomic measures can produce counterintuitive 'emergent' effects at the macro or systemic level. The commendable act of saving money by individuals during uncertain economic times has the perverse macroeconomic effect of making a recession  worse: in aggregate there will be less money available for spending, suppressing demand for goods and services. Economists call this effect 'the paradox of thrift'. Similarly, logical efforts by companies in such conditions to reduce their wage bill or their postponement of investment decisions will reduce spending in the economy  and deepen the economic downturn.

What can be done to counteract this harmful dynamic? The missing spending can be replaced by government spending: governments have it within their power to effectively counter economic downturns!

Model showing the effect of bank lending of deposited money as a multiplier in the creation of new money. Multiplier effect is shown as related to the bank reserve requirement on deposited funds.
Model showing the effect of bank lending of deposited money as a multiplier in the creation of new money. Multiplier effect is shown as related to the bank reserve requirement on deposited funds.
Scratch build of a stock-flow consistent model of a closed economy, based on a current transactions matrix
Scratch build of a stock-flow consistent model of a closed economy, based on a current transactions matrix
 Simulates total money mass over time. An aggregate of all demurrage free buffers is used to calculate demurrage fees. The total amount of demurrage free money in the system can never exceed the number of users multiplied with the size of the demurrage free buffer.    Model based on the  Sustainable
Simulates total money mass over time. An aggregate of all demurrage free buffers is used to calculate demurrage fees. The total amount of demurrage free money in the system can never exceed the number of users multiplied with the size of the demurrage free buffer.

Model based on the Sustainable Money System.
For a short introduction, read this short article of watch the TEDx talk.
'Efficiencyism’  can be described as a blind belief in the effectiveness
of efficiency measures without taking into account circumstances and the wider context.   The
graph on the left shows how the frequent use of the term 'efficiency' at the level of local interactons can lead to the emergence of
'Efficiencyism’  can be described as a blind belief in the effectiveness of efficiency measures without taking into account circumstances and the wider context.   The graph on the left shows how the frequent use of the term 'efficiency' at the level of local interactons can lead to the emergence of  'efficiencyism' through upward causation, denoted by the arrows pointing upwards.  However, there is also downward causation from the global level depicted by the red arrows which can increase the blind application of efficiency measures at the local level. In other words, efficiency for the sake of efficiency becomes a dominant idea.  The tyrannical influence of 'eficiencyism' affects all of us to varying degrees and unfortunately can often have very negative side effects, such as an increase in unemployment, social injustice and even increase inequality.  Of  course, well thought out efficiency improvements can also bring great  benefits.   I recommend reading an excellent article by Dr. Charles Chandler, who explains the term 'efficiencyism' with some excellent examples and also points to some  of its undesirable effects.

http://www.ageofoe.com/010-efficiencyism-holds-us-back/

The statement that there can be no economic activity
without  energy and that fossil fuels are
finite contrasts with the fact that money is not finite and can be created by governments
via their central banks at zero marginal cost whenever needed.

 An important fact about COAL, GAS and OIL (even
wh
The statement that there can be no economic activity without  energy and that fossil fuels are finite contrasts with the fact that money is not finite and can be created by governments via their central banks at zero marginal cost whenever needed.

An important fact about COAL, GAS and OIL (even when produced via fracking) is that their net energy ratios are falling rapidly. In other words the energy needed to extract a given quantity of fossil fuels is constantly increasing. This ratio (Energy Invested on Energy Returned - EIOER) provides yet another warning that we can no longer rely on fossil fuels to power our economies. We cannot wait until the ratio falls to 1/1 before we invest seriously in alternative sources of energy, because by then industrial society as we know it doday will have ceased to exist. 

PS: A link between growth in energy consumption and GDP growth is clearly illustrated on slide 13 of Gail Tverberg's presentaion entitled ''Oops! The world economy depends on an energy-related bubble''. In fact, the slide shows that growth in energy consumption usually precedes GDP growth.

https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/oops-debt-bubble-10_30_15.pdf

  Simulates personal accounts over time.    Model based on: http://circularmoney.org
Simulates personal accounts over time.

Model based on:
http://circularmoney.org
The following is a start to modeling the investment funds and work flow cycle for a company. This simulates how a fixed resource gets distributed among 3 investors and how the investors can lose those funds back to the investment system. The model assumes at this stage that the amount of money avail
The following is a start to modeling the investment funds and work flow cycle for a company. This simulates how a fixed resource gets distributed among 3 investors and how the investors can lose those funds back to the investment system. The model assumes at this stage that the amount of money available for investment is fixed over the time period in which the dynamics is unfolding. This can be adjusted as the model is further developed.
 The model simulates the comparison between mountain biking industry and forestry/logging in Derby Tasmania.     How the model works  On the left-hand side, Derby Mountain biking, tourists visit the mountain according to reviews and recommendation of mountain scenery and entertainment activities. Th
The model simulates the comparison between mountain biking industry and forestry/logging in Derby Tasmania.

How the model works
On the left-hand side, Derby Mountain biking, tourists visit the mountain according to reviews and recommendation of mountain scenery and entertainment activities. The number of people who hire bikes and who choose to dine on the mountain are limited by bike availability. Both bike hiring and biker dining contribute to tourist revenue in Derby. On the right-hand side, forest trees grow at certain rates, but are negatively affected by timber demand. Timber logging generate revenue, which depends on sale price and associated cost.

Interesting insights
Although forestry contributes more revenue in a certain time, it seems that Derby Mountain bike generate more tourist revenue from dining services and bike hiring in a long term.

 This model is an attempt to understand the interactions within an economy in an attempt to determine where the leverage points are to stimulate an economy.  @ LinkedIn ,  Twitter ,  YouTube

This model is an attempt to understand the interactions within an economy in an attempt to determine where the leverage points are to stimulate an economy.

@LinkedInTwitterYouTube

To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power
lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity,
since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning
of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of
To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity, since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. So whilst economic activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a break on economic growth and wealth.  As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'

'Efficiencyism’  can be described as a blind belief in the effectiveness
of efficiency measures without taking into account circumstances and the wider context.   The
graph on the left shows how the frequent use of the term 'efficiency' at the level of local interactons can lead to the emergence of
'Efficiencyism’  can be described as a blind belief in the effectiveness of efficiency measures without taking into account circumstances and the wider context.   The graph on the left shows how the frequent use of the term 'efficiency' at the level of local interactons can lead to the emergence of  'efficiencyism' through upward causation, denoted by the arrows pointing upwards.  However, there is also downward causation from the global level depicted by the red arrows which can increase the blind application of efficiency measures at the local level. In other words, efficiency for the sake of efficiency becomes a dominant idea.  The tyrannical influence of 'eficiencyism' affects all of us to varying degrees and unfortunately can often have very negative side effects, such as an increase in unemployment, social injustice and even increase inequality.  Of  course, well-thought-out efficiency improvements can also bring great  benefits.   I recommend reading an excellent article by Dr. Charles Chandler, who explains the term 'efficiencyism' with some excellent examples and also points to some  of its undesirable effects.

http://www.ageofoe.com/010-efficiencyism-holds-us-back/

   Introduction    This model simulates the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie, the government reactions, as well as the economic impact. The government's strategy is based on the number of COVID-19 cases reported and testing rates and recovered.       Assumptions    In the same trend that government poli
Introduction
This model simulates the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie, the government reactions, as well as the economic impact. The government's strategy is based on the number of COVID-19 cases reported and testing rates and recovered.

Assumptions
In the same trend that government policy decreases infection, it also reduces economic growth.
When there are ten or fewer COVID-19 cases reported, government policy is triggered.
The economy suffers as a result of an increase in COVID-19 cases.

Interesting insights
The higher testing rates appear to result in a more quick government response, resulting in fewer infectious cases. However, it has a negative influence on the economy.
Model showing the effect of bank lending of deposited money as a multiplier in the creation of new money. Multiplier effect is shown as related to the bank reserve requirement on deposited funds.
Model showing the effect of bank lending of deposited money as a multiplier in the creation of new money. Multiplier effect is shown as related to the bank reserve requirement on deposited funds.