This model is a classic simulation of the production cycle in the ocean, including the effects of the thermocline in switching off advection of dissolved nutrients and detritus to the surface layer.
It illustrates a number of interesting features including the coupling of three state variables in a closed cycle, the use of time to control the duration of advection, and the modulus function for cycling annual temperature data over multiple years.
The model state variables are expressed in nitrogen units (mg N m-3), and the calibration is based on:
Baliño, B.M. 1996. Eutrophication of the North Sea, 1980-1990: An evaluation of anthropogenic nutrient inputs using a 2D phytoplankton production model. Dr. scient. thesis, University of Bergen.
Fransz, H.G. & Verhagen, J.H.G. 1985. Modelling Research on the Production Cycle of Phytoplankton in the Southern Bight of the Northn Sea in Relation to Riverborne Nutrient Loads. Netherlands Journal of Sea Research 19 (3/4): 241-250.
This model was first implemented in PowerSim some years ago by one of my M.Sc. students, who then went on to become a Buddhist monk. Although this is a very Zen model, as far as I'm aware, the two facts are unrelated.
Clone of NPD model (Nutrients, Phytoplankton, Detritus)
Westley, F. R., O. Tjornbo, L. Schultz, P. Olsson, C. Folke, B. Crona and Ö. Bodin. 2013. A theory of transformative agency in linked social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society 18(3): 27. link
Clone of Transformative Agency in Social-Ecological System
This model is a classic simulation of the production cycle in the ocean, including the effects of the thermocline in switching off advection of dissolved nutrients and detritus to the surface layer.
It illustrates a number of interesting features including the coupling of three state variables in a closed cycle, the use of time to control the duration of advection, and the modulus function for cycling annual temperature data over multiple years.
The model state variables are expressed in nitrogen units (mg N m-3), and the calibration is based on:
Baliño, B.M. 1996. Eutrophication of the North Sea, 1980-1990: An evaluation of anthropogenic nutrient inputs using a 2D phytoplankton production model. Dr. scient. thesis, University of Bergen.
Fransz, H.G. & Verhagen, J.H.G. 1985. Modelling Research on the Production Cycle of Phytoplankton in the Southern Bight of the Northn Sea in Relation to Riverborne Nutrient Loads. Netherlands Journal of Sea Research 19 (3/4): 241-250.
This model was first implemented in PowerSim some years ago by one of my M.Sc. students, who then went on to become a Buddhist monk. Although this is a very Zen model, as far as I'm aware, the two facts are unrelated.
Clone of NPD model (Nutrients, Phytoplankton, Detritus)
Food Security and Climate Change in East Africa
Clone of Clone of MLP Bathtub Insight with outflow depending on water level
Simple mass balance model for lakes based on the Vollenweider equation:
dMw/dt = Min - sMw + pMs - Mout
The model was first used in the 1960s to determine the phosphorus concentration in lakes and reservoirs for eutrophication assessment.
This version considers mercury, and adds diagenesis, using an extra state variable (mercury in the sediment), and incorporates desorption processes that release mercury trapped in the sediment back to the water column.
The temporal dynamics of the model simulate the typical development of pollution in time.
1. Low loading, low Hg concentration in lake
2. High loading, increasing Hg concentration in lake
3. Desorption rate is low, Hg in sediment increases
4. Measures implemented for source control, loading reduces
5. Hg in lake gradually decreases, but below a certain point, desorption increases, and lake Hg concentration does not improve
6. Recovery only occurs when the secondary load in the sediment is strongly reduced.
Clone of Mercury pollution model with diagenesis
From Schluter et al 2017 article A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems COMSeS2017 video. See also Balke and Gilbert 2014 JASSS article How do agents make decisions? (recommended by Kurt Kreuger U of S)
Modelling human behaviour (MoHuB)
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.
Experiment with adjusting the moose birth-rate to simulate Over-shoot followed by environmental recovery
Royal Island- Resilience
Fluxograma da produção de biodiesel a partir de microalgas
•Average
(Status Quo) Case
–Last
30 years of historical EAA data
–Used
the past to predict the future
–Represents
the status quo case
–Includes
the dry portion and wet portion of AMO
cycle
Clone of EA model trying scenario of water demand (Status quo scenario)
How the 4-H club became a marketing thingy for DuPont
4-H impact on African Farming
Killed People by Made-up virus
Combining electromobility and renewable energies since 2014.
http://www.amsterdamvehicle2grid.nl/
Clone of Amsterdam V2G simulation 2.0
Simple model to illustrate oyster growth based on primary production of Phytoplankton as a state variable, forced by light and nutrients, running for a yearly period.
Phytoplankton growth based on on Steele's and Michaelis-Menten equations), where:
Primary Production=(([Pmax]*[I]/[Iopt]*exp(1-[I]/[Iopt])*[S])/([Ks]+[S]))
Pmax: Maximum production (d-1)
I: Light energy at depth of interest (uE m-2 s-1)
Iopt: Light energy at which Pmax occurs (uE m-2 s-1)
S: Nutrient concentration (umol N L-1)
Ks: Half saturation constant for nutrient (umol N L-1).
Further developments:
- Nutrients as state variable in cycle with detritus from phytoplankton and oyster biomass.
- Light limited by the concentration of phytoplankton.
- Temperature effect on phytoplankton and Oyster growth.
Clone of Clone3f micro algae , biogas , bioelectrcidades
In Chile,
60% of its population are exposed to levels of Particulate Matter (PM) above international standards. Air Pollution is causing
4,000 premature deaths per year, including health costs over US$8 billion.
The System Dynamics Causal Loop Diagram developed herein shows an initial study of the dynamics among the variables that influences the accumulation of PM in the air, in particular the case of Temuco, in the South of Chile. In Temuco, 97% of the PM inventories comes from the combustion of low quality firewood, which in turns is being burned due to its low price and cultural habits/tradition.
Clone of Air Pollution Dynamics - Firewood Combustion
•Average
(Status Quo) Case
–Last
30 years of historical EAA data
–Used
the past to predict the future
–Represents
the status quo case
–Includes
the dry portion and wet portion of AMO
cycle
EA model trying scenario of water demand (Status quo scenario)
A simulation illustrating simple predator prey dynamics. You have two populations.
L&I4: Predator Prooi
Factors Affecting the Koala Mortality Incline
In Chile,
60% of its population are exposed to levels of Particulate Matter (PM) above international standards. Air Pollution is causing
4,000 premature deaths per year, including health costs over US$8 billion.
The System Dynamics Causal Loop Diagram developed herein shows an initial study of the dynamics among the variables that influences the accumulation of PM in the air, in particular the case of Temuco, in the South of Chile. In Temuco, 97% of the PM inventories comes from the combustion of low quality firewood, which in turns is being burned due to its low price and cultural habits/tradition.
Clone of Air Pollution Dynamics - Firewood Combustion
The time-variable solution to a step-function change in inflow concentration for an ideal, completely mixed lake.
Clone of Clone of ENVE 431 - HW5 - PROBLEM 7
Interplay between wolves eating sheep and farmers killing wolves who kill deer that eat crops that feed sheep.
Clone of Complex Sheep, Wolves, Deer, Crops
THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
THE MODEL IS ZONE SPECIFIC AS GLOBAL WEATHER IS NOT HOMOGENEOUS BUT A COLLECTION OF HEAT BUMBPS DEPENDENT ON POPULATION SIZE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND MASSED CONURBATIONS AND AGGLOMERATIONS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED
Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Primitives for Watershed modeling project. Click Clone Insight at the top right to make a copy that you can edit.
The converter in this file contains precipitation for Phoenix only.
Clone of Clone of Clone of Primitives for Rainwater Harvesting -Phoenix ENVS 270 F21
THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED
Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
2018 OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO POLLUTION based on Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster