Insight diagram

This stock and flow diagram is an updated working draft of a conceptual model of a dune-lake system in the Northland region of New Zealand.

Clone of Stock and flow diagram of nitrogen in a lake
Insight diagram
Deforestation
Insight diagram
HANDY Model of Societal Collapse from Ecological Economics Paper 
see also D Cunha's model at IM-15085
Clone of Human and Nature Dynamics of Societal Inequality
Insight diagram

From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

Model of World Dynamics
32 9 months ago
Insight diagram
This model shows the growth of one type of organism as a function of the carrying capacity (i.e., logistic growth).
Clone of Daisy Growth
Insight diagram
Concepts are designed for Universatility and local variables without forcing a one size fits all model. 

Measurements in the course are designed to maintain a system perspective in all planning and measurement systems. 

Students will acquire hands on modeling skills using either video learning offered by System Thinking World host and easily viewed through the right hand side of the page conveniently located are links to the video series.  

A facilitator may offer traditional instruction or ideally students from the graduating students are teaching the next group of students and improving the way the materials is presented.

Modelling Social Physics - System Dynamics Projects
Insight diagram
Description:

A simple model for breeding plants from generation to generation in 3 different locations, with one "yield" variable (e.g. height) and 4 combinations of plants from the parents. Simulation tracks the frequencies of each combination in each generation as well as the overall average height by generation.

The slider will select from 1 of 5 presets that changes the characteristics of each location's plants.

The graph of A1A2 Proportion represents both A1A2 and A2A1 since they are interchangeable.

Clone of Plant Breeding Simulation
Insight diagram
B
Predator-Prey Interactions (Wolves & Moose) QB
Insight diagram
Sustainability Toamasina
Insight diagram
To calculate emission amount from mobile sources in particular from road traffic by vehicle age-cohort in DKI Jakarta - Indonesia
Vehicle Emission Amount using Age-Cohort
Insight diagram
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

Clone of Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
Insight diagram
This model is a classic simulation of the production cycle in the ocean, including the effects of the thermocline in switching off advection of dissolved nutrients and detritus to the surface layer.

It illustrates a number of interesting features including the coupling of three state variables in a closed cycle, the use of time to control the duration of advection, and the modulus function for cycling annual temperature data over multiple years.

The model state variables are expressed in nitrogen units (mg N m-3), and the calibration is based on:

Baliño, B.M. 1996. Eutrophication of the North Sea, 1980-1990: An evaluation of anthropogenic nutrient inputs using a 2D phytoplankton production model. Dr. scient. thesis, University of Bergen.
 
Fransz, H.G. & Verhagen, J.H.G. 1985. Modelling Research on the Production Cycle of Phytoplankton in the Southern Bight of the Northn Sea in Relation to Riverborne Nutrient Loads. Netherlands Journal of Sea Research 19 (3/4): 241-250.

This model was first implemented in PowerSim some years ago by one of my M.Sc. students, who then went on to become a Buddhist monk. Although this is a very Zen model, as far as I'm aware, the two facts are unrelated.
Clone of NPD model (Nutrients, Phytoplankton, Detritus)
Insight diagram
HANDY Model of Societal Collapse from Ecological Economics Paper 
see also D Cunha's model at IM-15085
Clone of Human and Nature Dynamics of Societal Inequality
Insight diagram
Simple mass balance model for lakes, based on the Vollenweider equation:

dMw/dt = Min - sMw - Mout

The model was first used in the 1960s to determine the phosphorus concentration in lakes and reservoirs, for eutrophication assessment.
Clone of Clone of Vollenweider model
Insight diagram

THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

THE MODEL IS ZONE SPECIFIC AS GLOBAL WEATHER IS NOT HOMOGENEOUS BUT A COLLECTION OF HEAT BUMBPS DEPENDENT ON POPULATION SIZE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND MASSED CONURBATIONS AND AGGLOMERATIONS 

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Insight diagram

A simulation illustrating simple predator prey dynamics. You have two populations.

Clone of Predator Prey
Insight diagram
Here is the Covid 19 Statistics model based on the Philippines.
Ph_Covid19SDM_Jaspher Balcueba (FINAL)
Insight diagram
HANDY Model of Societal Collapse from Ecological Economics Paper 
see also D Cunha's model at IM-15085
Clone of Human and Nature Dynamics of Societal Inequality
Insight diagram
Simple model to illustrate oyster growth based on primary production of Phytoplankton as a state variable, forced by light and nutrients, running for a yearly period.

Phytoplankton growth based on on Steele's and Michaelis-Menten equations), where: 

Primary Production=(([Pmax]*[I]/[Iopt]*exp(1-[I]/[Iopt])*[S])/([Ks]+[S]))

Pmax: Maximum production (d-1)
I: Light energy at depth of interest (uE m-2 s-1)
Iopt: Light energy at which Pmax occurs (uE m-2 s-1)
S: Nutrient concentration (umol N L-1)
Ks: Half saturation constant for nutrient (umol N L-1).

Further developments:
- Nutrients as state variable in cycle with detritus from phytoplankton and oyster biomass.
- Light limited by the concentration of phytoplankton.
- Temperature effect on phytoplankton and Oyster growth.


Clone of Clone3f micro algae , biogas , bioelectrcidades
Insight diagram
This model uses simple functions (converters, cosine) to simulate the water balance inside a reservoir.
Clone of Water balance in a reservoir
Insight diagram
A system dynamics model of a predator-prey lifecycle relationship




Clone of Predator-Prey relationship
Insight diagram
•Wet Period Case
–30 years of historical wet period on record (1974-2004)-including wettest years on record 1974-1983.
–Represents the wet period case
–Corresponds to wet cycle of AMO
Clone of EA wet conditions 1974-2004
Insight diagram
Primary production model with phytoplankton as a state variable, force by light and nutrients. Model expanded to include bivalves.
PhytOster 3
Insight diagram
A system dynamics model of a predator-prey lifecycle relationship




Clone of Predator-Prey relationship