Health | Insight Maker

Overview:

Overall, this analysis showed a COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, the government policies to curtail that, and some of the impacts it is having on the Burnie economy.

Variables

The simulation made use of the variables such as; Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): Death rate. (4): Immunity loss rate etc.

Assumptions:

From the model, it is apparent that government health policies directly affect the economic output of Burnie. A better health policy has proven to have a better economic condition for Burnie and verse versa.

In the COVID-19 model, some variables are set at fixed rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death rate, infection rate, and case impact rate, as this is normally influenced by the individual health conditions and social activities.

Moving forward, we decided to set the recovery rate to 0.7, which is a rate above the immunity loss rate of 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be diminished over time.

Step 1: Try to set all value variables at their lowest point and then stimulate.

Outcome: the number of those Infected are– 135; Recovered – 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.

Step 2: Try to increase the variables of Health Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the same as step 1, and simulate

Outcome: The number of those Infected – 166 (up); Recovered – 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).

With this analysis, it is obvious that the increase of health policy, quarantine, and travel restriction will assist in increase recovery rate, a decrease in confirmed cases, a reduction in death cases or fatality rate, but a decrease in Burnie GDP.

Step 3: Enlarge the Testing Rate to 0.4, variable, others, maintain the same as step 2, and simulate

Outcome: It can be seen that the number of Infected is down to – 152; those recovered down to – 243; overall cases up to – 1022; those that died down to–17,625; while the GDP remains – 824.

In this step, it is apparent that the increase of testing rate will assist to increase the confirmed cases.

Step 4: Try to change the GDP Growth Rate to 0.14, then Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and then simulate the model

Outcome: what happens is that the Infected number – 152 remains the same; Recovered rate– 243 the same; Number of Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); but the GDP goes up to– 6,632.

This final step made it obvious that the increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will help to improve the overall GDP performance of Burnie's economy.

The Recent COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania - Buchi Okafor 546792

Buchi Okafor

Disease dynamics simulation ABM

Disease Dynamics (ABM)

Artur Rossi

The number of doping cases at the Olympic Games has soared in the last 10 years. We feel that a systems thinking approach is necessary because it is a complex social and political problem with many underlying factors feeding into the system making it hard to find concrete one-off solutions. A systems approach will enable us to find leverage points by breaking down the core problem thus making it easier to address the issue.

Doping in sport

LEFEBVRE

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Florian Grote

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity and isolation policies.

Clone of SIR model with herd immunity and isolation

BillSun

Energy Insight Model

Yuan Feng

Clone of Obesity in America

Thom Lv

Ocular Rosacea is a systemic disease related to the faulty functioning of the immune system. This means that there will be repeated flare-ups and frequent recurrences of the 'pink eye' condition it triggers. Systemic illnesses are best treated with systemic means such as antibiotics. Because facial rosacea (red nose and cheeks) does not correlate with manifestations of ocular rosacea, such as pink eye or blepharitis (red eye lids) it is often underdiagnosed. This is particularly so because nonspecific conjunctivitis (pink eye) is indistinguishable from conjunctivitis triggered by ocular rosacea. This underdiagnosis has been confirmed by various scientific studies and can, unfortunately, lead to suboptimal treatment of the red eye condition. Please also have a look at Insight 74712 Ocular Rosacea 2

Systemic Treament: Ocular Rosacea 1

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

SARS Modelling with SEIR Model.

Author: Aulia Nur Fajriyah & Lutfi Andriyanto

Clone of SEIR

pemsim kelompok 3

This three loop goal-seeking structure identifies the three key influences on managing blood glucose for people with diabetes - insulin injections reduce blood glucose levels, exercise reduces blood glucose levels, and food increases blood glucose levels. The balance of all three is necessary to manage diabetes.

Clone of Diabetes Management (3 loops)

Mariane Kfoury

THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

Clone of Clone of Clone of Clone of Clone of Clone of THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES CHAOTIC TURBULENCE (+controls)

Yanhui Su

POPULATION CONTROL BASED ON THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

This expanded World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

POPULATION CONTROL

Guy Lakeman

Clone of IM-91683 from jacqui and vincy Summary of paper map produced by participants at the compelling case for prevention workshop 6 june 2017.

Current premier version containing Story Steps and text for vincy to update.

This is clone of 97129 via Vincy.

Clone of FINAL Clone of Concept Map produced by CCP Workshop 1

Jeb Eddy

Modelling CVD Prevention

CVD Prevention Model

Hadley Nanayakkara

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Nils Hermes

3

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

TBMOM Agency

Risk behaviours points of intervention

Jacqueline Davison

THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of 2018 OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO POLLUTION based on Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Robert Steve DeLorey

Ocular Rosacea is a systemic disease related to the faulty functioning of the immune system. This means that there will be repeated flare-ups and frequent recurrences of the 'pink eye' condition it triggers. Systemic illnesses are best treated with systemic means such as antibiotics. Because facial rosacea (red nose and cheeks) does not correlate with manifestations of ocular rosacea, such a pink eye or blepharitis (red eye lids), it is often underdiagnosed. The fundamental approach using specifically doxycycline at only 40mg permits maintaining the treatment over long periods to prevent frequent recurrence. This could be particulary important for patients suffering repeated bouts of blepharits / conjuntivits. Its effectiveness at a low sub-antibiotic level has been shown in a study by Ines Pfeffer et al. (2011). Please also have a look at Insight 74700 Ocular Rosacea 1

Systemic Treatment: Ocular Rosacea 2

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Example of Configurable Conveyor Pattern (vectorized conveyor with multiple 'conveyor speeds')

See Taking The Pill

https://getsatisfaction.com/insightmaker/topics/delay-in-taking-the-pill for the problem statement

Clone of Configurable Conveyor Pattern

simulator

This systems model will help students understand the different systems that make up our body and how choices we make can impact how those systems work.
Factors are based on daily choices.

Clone of Human Body Systems Efficiency

Naviyn Prabhu Balakrishnan

The hepatitis B virus is a silent killer.

The incubation period is 60 to 90 days. After this period, the acute phase occurs.

During this period 90% of people infected with HBV will get rid of the virus, however 5% may die during this acute phase. The others, about 5%, will go to the chronic phase which will cause liver damage and lead to cirrhosis of the liver and liver cancer.

Esther MIEKU REBIENO

Charles Alarich

Hepatitis B Virus HBV

MIEKU REBIENO Esther

Dosage per day, Doses per day, Every ? hours, Medicine in Intestines, Drug absorption, Plasma level, Blood volume, Plasma concentration, Toxic level, Medicinal level, Drug excretion, Excretion rate, Half-Life

Clone of Pharmacokinetics

Miftahul Jannah

Hipertiroid merupakan penyakit berlebihnya hormon Tiroid yang diproduksi tubuh. Faktor penyebabnya bisa karena bawaan lahir ataupun karena tubuh salah menerjemahkan zat tertentu (bisa dicari di literatur kesehatan terkait).

Pada contoh ini, dimisalkan seseorang memiliki level hormon sebanyak 14 dengan pertumbuhannya 0.2 per hari. Padahal, di sini kondisi manusia normal memiliki level hormon antara 3.4 hingga 7.9.

Untuk mengurangi level hormonnya, maka dia perlu mengonsumsi penurun hormon Tiroid yaitu Thyrozol. Berdasarkan pengalaman, seorang penderita penyakit ini tetap harus mengonsumsi ~10 mg Thyrozol tiap hari untuk menjaga agar hormonnya tidak naik. Maka dari itu, persamaan-persamaan yang dipakai di sini adalah:

[Thyroid Level] = [Thyrozol Dose]*0.2 - [Grow Rate]

Normal_Condition = ([Max Normal Level]+[Min Normal Level])/2

[Thyrozol Dose] = ([Thyroid Level]/Normal_Condition)*10

Thyroid Hormon Model on Hyperthyroidsm Patient Therapy

Harry Krisna

Health Models