Adapted from Hartmut Bossel's "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."  ​Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for
Adapted from Hartmut Bossel's "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."

​Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for the elderly, pensions dynamics, etc.
WIP based on Bill mitchell's blogs Sectoral balances are relationships among money flows during an accounting period. Where we perceive accumulations of past imbalances to be accrued is another matter....
WIP based on Bill mitchell's blogs
Sectoral balances are relationships among money flows during an accounting period. Where we perceive accumulations of past imbalances to be accrued is another matter....
Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a gre
Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.

Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.
 FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION     BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!    (governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  The chaotic turbulence is the result of th
FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION 
 BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

 The L ogistic Map  is a polynomial mapping (equivalently,  recurrence relation ) of  degree 2 , often cited as an archetypal example of how complex,  chaotic  behaviour can arise from very simple  non-linear  dynamical equations. The map was popularized in a seminal 1976 paper by the biologist  Rob

The Logistic Map is a polynomial mapping (equivalently, recurrence relation) of degree 2, often cited as an archetypal example of how complex, chaotic behaviour can arise from very simple non-linear dynamical equations. The map was popularized in a seminal 1976 paper by the biologist Robert May, in part as a discrete-time demographic model analogous to the logistic equation first created by Pierre François Verhulst

Mathematically, the logistic map is written

where:

 is a number between zero and one, and represents the ratio of existing population to the maximum possible population at year n, and hence x0 represents the initial ratio of population to max. population (at year 0)r is a positive number, and represents a combined rate for reproduction and starvation. To generate a bifurcation diagram, set 'r base' to 2 and 'r ramp' to 1
To demonstrate sensitivity to initial conditions, try two runs with 'r base' set to 3 and 'Initial X' of 0.5 and 0.501, then look at first ~20 time steps

   THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.  WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER R

THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

WIP Book summary of Frank Stilwell's 2019 Book, The Political Economy of Inequality, Polity Press  podcast and slides
WIP Book summary of Frank Stilwell's 2019 Book, The Political Economy of Inequality, Polity Press podcast and slides
HANDY Model of Societal Collapse from Ecological Economics  Paper   see also D Cunha's model at  IM-15085
HANDY Model of Societal Collapse from Ecological Economics Paper 
see also D Cunha's model at IM-15085
Adapted from Hartmut Bossel's "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."  ​Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for
Adapted from Hartmut Bossel's "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."

​Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for the elderly, pensions dynamics, etc.
In a Dasgupta review lecture I heard 'welfare is stock, therefore it cannot be measured by GDP, since GDP is a flow'. This fascinated me. Therefore I am trying to make a stock-flow diagram of this.
In a Dasgupta review lecture I heard 'welfare is stock, therefore it cannot be measured by GDP, since GDP is a flow'. This fascinated me. Therefore I am trying to make a stock-flow diagram of this.
 Goodwin cycle  IM-2010  with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen's illustration of Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis "stability begets instability". This can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.

Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen's illustration of Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis "stability begets instability". This can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.

WIP of several books of Karl Polanyi's thoughts and papers around social science economic history and capitalism. . See also Summary of the Great Transformation  IM-10640
WIP of several books of Karl Polanyi's thoughts and papers around social science economic history and capitalism. . See also Summary of the Great Transformation IM-10640
WIP based mostly on Jan
Toporowski  2013 vol 1  and  2018 vol 2  books on Michal Kalecki: An Intellectual Biography   Layout Consistent with  David Wheat MacroEconomic model CLD Insight  by Gene Bellinger  
WIP based mostly on Jan Toporowski 2013 vol 1 and 2018 vol 2 books on Michal Kalecki: An Intellectual Biography  
Layout Consistent with David Wheat MacroEconomic model CLD Insight by Gene Bellinger  
 The L ogistic Map  is a polynomial mapping (equivalently,  recurrence relation ) of  degree 2 , often cited as an archetypal example of how complex,  chaotic  behaviour can arise from very simple  non-linear  dynamical equations. The map was popularized in a seminal 1976 paper by the biologist  Rob

The Logistic Map is a polynomial mapping (equivalently, recurrence relation) of degree 2, often cited as an archetypal example of how complex, chaotic behaviour can arise from very simple non-linear dynamical equations. The map was popularized in a seminal 1976 paper by the biologist Robert May, in part as a discrete-time demographic model analogous to the logistic equation first created by Pierre François Verhulst

Mathematically, the logistic map is written

where:

 is a number between zero and one, and represents the ratio of existing population to the maximum possible population at year n, and hence x0 represents the initial ratio of population to max. population (at year 0)r is a positive number, and represents a combined rate for reproduction and starvation. To generate a bifurcation diagram, set 'r base' to 2 and 'r ramp' to 1
To demonstrate sensitivity to initial conditions, try two runs with 'r base' set to 3 and 'Initial X' of 0.5 and 0.501, then look at first ~20 time steps

Adapted from Hartmut Bossel's "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."  ​Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for
Adapted from Hartmut Bossel's "System Zoo 3 Simulation Models, Economy, Society, Development."

​Population model where the population is summarized in four age groups (children, parents, older people, old people). Used as a base population model for dealing with issues such as employment, care for the elderly, pensions dynamics, etc.
Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a gre
Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.
 FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION     BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!    (governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  The chaotic turbulence is the result of th
FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION 
 BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a compon
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)