Economics | Insight Maker

Book Summary of The Great Transformation by Karl Polanyi see Wikipedia . See also more Karl Polanyi ideas IM-181325

Cutbacks can have a counterintuitive effect. The government knows precisely how much it custs in spending. However, it cannot know the extent to which tax revenues shrink in a non-linear complex economic system as the economy contracts. In addition, the treasury has to spend more as automatic stabilizers activate and payments are made to an increasing number of unemployed workers. The effect of this is that initially the deficit shrinks, but later it rises as tax revenues fall short of expectations and more spending takes place. The ironic part is that often the very indicator that promted austerity measurs, the defcit to GDP ratio, becomes worse than it was at the outset. We could observe this in Spain and Portugal where planned deficits have been repeatedly missed, as austerity measures (fiscal cutbacks) were introduced to deal with the effects of the 2008 financial crisis.

CUTBACKS OFTEN MAKE FISCAL DEFICITS WORSE

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Format: Given pre-conditions when independent variables(s) then dependent variable

Given Earnings Decline (0.25), Spending Variance (55), Initial Investment (500) and Rate of Return (RandNormal(0.06, 0.12)) when one of these independent variables change then how sensitive is Investment (22) over a 30 year time period (-1,000)

H1: if you Earn more then Investment will last much longer => rejected

H2: if you Spend less then Investment will last much longer => accepted

H3: if your Initial Investment is higher then Investment will last much longer => accepted

H4: if you reduce your Spend when Investments are declining then Investment will last much longer => accepted

Given Earnings Decline (0.25), Spending Variance (55), Initial Investment (500) and Rate of Return (RandNormal(0.06, 0.12)) when one of these independent variables are optimised then Investment will last exactly 30 years by minimising the absolute investment gap

H1: if you set an appropriate Spending Base then remaining Investment is 0 => rejected

H2: if you set an appropriate Spending Reduction then remaining Investment is 0 => rejected

Source for investment returns: https://seekingalpha.com/article/3896226-90-year-history-of-capital-market-returns-and-risks

Wealth Management when Retiring

Chris Fortuin

3

Challenge p.212 Business Dynamics, Sterman

Clone of Oil Shortage 1979 Iran Revolution

Yannick Feder

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Climate, Weather, Ecology, Economics, Population, Welfare, Energy, Policy, CO2, Carbon Cycle, GHG (green house gasses, combined effects)

As general population is composed of 85% with an education level of a 12 grader or less (a 17 year old), a simple block of components concerning the health of the planet needs to be broken down into simple blocks.

Perhaps this picture will show the basics on which to vote for a sustained healthy future

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram of Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

3

THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

WORLD2020 to PLANET2020

Guy Lakeman

12

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Clone of Claire - Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.02

Claire Smith

Goodwin business cycle model, modified from Keen and Blatt

Clone of Goodwin Business Cycle

Joo Hee Lee

$This model shows the structure and operation of a simple economy. It can represent economic systems at different levels of abstraction (e.g. a single good, a group of goods, multiple groups, & an "economy.") This model has one significant difference from Model 4. The fractional consumption rat$

This model shows the structure and operation of a simple economy. It can represent economic systems at different levels of abstraction (e.g. a single good, a group of goods, multiple groups, & an "economy.")

This model has one significant difference from Model 4. The fractional consumption rate table serves the purpose of demonstrating the effects of changes in the fractional consumption rate (or the converse the fractional rate of saving) from 100% to less-than 100% to more-than 100%.

It demonstrates dramatically the effects of significant changes in consumption rates.

Clone of Simple Economy: Model 5

Nilo Guimaraes

Very basic stock-flow diagram of simple interest with table and graph output in interest, bank account and savings development per year. Initial deposit, interest rate, yearly deposit and withdrawal, and initial balance bank account can all be modified.

I have developed a lesson plan in which students work on both simple and compound interest across both IM and Excel. I also wrote an article about this. Both are in Dutch, which you can translate using for example Google Translate.

Clone of Stock-Flow diagram of savings account - simple interest

Zhong Xina

An initial study of the economics of single use coffee pods.

Clone of Clone of Coffee Pods ISD Humanities v 1.02

Isabella Mendez

$This model shows the structure and operation of a simple economy. It can represent economic systems at different levels of abstraction (e.g. a single good, a group of goods, multiple groups, & an "economy.") This model has one significant difference from Model 4. The fractional consumption rat$

This model shows the structure and operation of a simple economy. It can represent economic systems at different levels of abstraction (e.g. a single good, a group of goods, multiple groups, & an "economy.")

This model has one significant difference from Model 4. The fractional consumption rate table serves the purpose of demonstrating the effects of changes in the fractional consumption rate (or the converse the fractional rate of saving) from 100% to less-than 100% to more-than 100%.

It demonstrates dramatically the effects of significant changes in consumption rates.

Simple Economy: Model 5

Jim Berger

Very basic stock-flow diagram of simple interest with table and graph output in interest, bank account and savings development per year. Initial deposit, interest rate, yearly deposit and withdrawal, and initial balance bank account can all be modified in Dutch.

Voorraad-stroom diagram - sparen - enkelvoudige interest

Henny van Dongen

A simulation model that shows the relationship between the mountain biking trails in derby and the the effect it has on the tourism,

Simulation of Derby Mountain Bike Vs Logging

Adarsh Yamphu

Goodwin business cycle model, modified from Keen and Blatt

Clone of Goodwin Business Cycle

Nilo Guimaraes

This model shows the structure and operation of a simple economy. It can represent economic systems at different levels of abstraction (e.g. a single good, a group of goods, multiple groups, & an "economy.")

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the long-run. Rates of consumption over 100% of production will diminish the savings stock and eventually cause rates of production and consumption to fall.

Clone of Simple Economy: Model 6

Maikel Mardjan

This model shows the structure and operation of a simple economy. It can represent economic systems at different levels of abstraction (e.g. a single good, a group of goods, multiple groups, & an "economy.")

In summary, lower rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher rates of production and consumption in the long-run. Rates of consumption over 100% of production will diminish the savings stock and eventually cause rates of production and consumption to fall.

Clone of Simple Economy: Model 6

ILIAK CASTRO PENA

Based on the Market and Price simulation model in System Zoo 3.

Bossel: Z504 Market and Price

Alfred Aenishaenslin

Goodwin business cycle model, modified from Keen and Blatt

Clone of Goodwin Business Cycle

Victor Hernandez

Current and proposed Structure of CCP and related Models expanding on the details provided in the Project Completion plan IM-101760

Structure of the CCP Models

Geoff McDonnell

MODERN MONETARY THEORY SHOWS HOW FULL EMPLOYMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED!

POTENTIAL GDP is a level of overall spending - by the government and the non-government sector - at which there is full employment. If the economy is not operating at its potential, then the private sector has failed to invested or spend enough to generate the necessary growth nor has income from net exports contributed enough. This only leaves the government to close the spending gap. Conceptually, a government disposing of its own freely floating currency could act using two powerful tools - spending in excess of tax revenue, and taxation - to ensure that the gap between the actual economic activity and potential GDP is quickly closed. Achieving the full employment that prevailed for 30 years between 1945 and 1975 in western economies is definitely possible!

MANAGING FULL EMPLOYMENT

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Summary of Hermans Scale dynamics of grassroots innovations through parallel pathways of transformative change Ecological Economics 2016 article (paywalled) This is applied to health in a subsequent insight

Multiscale innovation dynamics

Geoff McDonnell