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On the occasion of th G20-meeting in Toronto, the German Economics minister Herr Schaüble said that without restoring confidence it would not be possible to get consumer spending and business investment going. Similar remarks were made by David Cameron and Señor Zapatero of Spain. All maintain that confidence is a pre-requisite to get growth going and that, therefore, it was imperative to reduce fiscal deficits. Reducing the fiscal deficit will restore confidence at first. However, reducing the deficit very quickly will introduce a dynamic that may cause the economy to decline - and perhaps depress consumers demand even further. It will actually destroy confidence: few businesses are inclined to invest in a shrinking economy. Cutting the deficit too rapidly or too steeply can lead to a confidence trap.

NOTE: A big experiment is now taking place in the UK - the government has cut public spending severely! Will this lead to hardship and, perhaps, social unrest?

Confidence Trap and Growth

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

This is a first attempt to illustrate the interconnected nature of the economic assets of Roswell - Chaves County

RCC economic model

Jens Deichmann

Shows the development of wealth if betting is according to the Kelly criterion.

Test - Kelly criterion

Karoly

9 3 months ago

SSM Lionfish Management PT2 revised with Storytelling

RRamos

7 months ago

Economics model

Arkadiy Simonov

Primitive Directory/Guide

Wastewater Treatment Plant is a stock that refers to the primary treatment process in WWTPs. (Units are in millions of suspected microplastics). While WWTP are efficient and effective at retaining MPs, WWTPs are a significant source of MPs in aquatic environments because so much wastewater is filtered.

Biologically Active Filter, BAF is a stock that refers to the secondary treatment process in WWTPs (and acts as a simplification for all the other elaborate processes going on during this step). This traps further MPs.

Population of Island Communities is a stock that refers to the amount of people in island communities in the Pacific.

Coral Reefs is a stock that refers to the abundance of coral reefs in the Pacific Ocean. This is an estimation of the value as there is no value on this based in literature.

Plastic in Coral Reef Islands refers to the amount of suspected microplastics/plastic units in coral reef habitats (regardless if the reef dies or not)

Clean-Up refers to increased initiatives to reduce plastic in the Pacific Ocean and by Coral Reef Islands. These values were based off of current cleanup values multiplied by 10 to indicate a more environmentally focused world.

Reduce Demand for Plastic Straws refers to the variable in which we approximate that 10 people will use straws per year. While this may seem low, we are optimistic that demand will be reduced in future years!

2018W ISCI 360 Project Part 2

Stephen Juwono

3

WIP concepts from Rachel Turner's Book Neo-liberal Ideology

Neoliberal concepts

Geoff McDonnell

This seeks to model increasing improvements in long run economic growth potential as the education level increases.

LR Economic Growth

Coby Joseph

Adapted from Fig 12.1 p.476 of the Book James A. Forte ( 2007), Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice; Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-9

Economic Theory Map

Geoff McDonnell

Introduction:

This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. It shows how the government policy tries to reduce the spread of COVID-19 whilst also impacting the local economy.

Assumptions:

This model has four variables that influence the number of COVID-19 cases: infection rate, immunity loss rate, recovery rate and death rate.

In order to reduce the pandemic spread, in this model, assume the government released six policies when Burnie COVID-19 cases are equal or over 10 cases. Policies are vaccination promotion, travel restriction to Burnie, quarantine, social distance, lockdown and testing rate.

Government policies would reduce the pandemic. However, it decreases economic growth at the same time. In this model, only list three variable that influence local economic activities.

Travel restrictions and quarantine will reduce Burnie tourism and decrease the local economy. On the other hand, quarantine, social distance, lockdown allow people to stay at home, increasing E-commerce business.

As a result, policies that cause fewer COVID-19 cases also cause more considerable negative damage to the economy.

Interesting insights:

One of the interesting findings is that the government policy would reduce the COVID-19 spread significantly if I adjust the total government policies are over 20% (vaccine promotion, travel restriction, quarantine, social distance, lockdown), 3560 people will die, then no more people get COVID-19.

However, if I change the total government policy to less than 5%, the whole Burnie people will die according to the model. Therefore, we need to follow the polices, which saves our lives.

BMA708 assignment3 - Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie

Zhiyuan Wang

Investment with depreciation (good/bad economy)

Karoly

6 3 months ago

A model of the ebb and flow of agricultural societies, like China's history. From Khalil Saeed and Oleg Pavlov's WPI 2006 paper See also the Generic structure Insight Map

Dynastic Cycles Model

Geoff McDonnell

5 months ago

There are many reasons why reality does not alter doctrines. Some of the factors and their dynamics are shown in the CLD.

However, an unchanging doctrine may prompt actions that influence and change reality. Do ill-adapted doctrinal reactions not increase the complexity in the world, potentially making everything worse? Some Neoliberal economic remedies come to mind.

THE INALTERABILITY OF DOCTRINES TENDS TO INCREASE COMPLEXITY

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Olympic Money Pit. Economic Impact Model

Anthony Bathiche

Revised version of S&F diagram, with Renewable energy investment as an auxiliary variable.

Revised Stock & Flow of Energy Infrastructure Development, Climate Change Impacts, and Economic Activity

Victoria Yanco

Clone of Pesticide Use in Central America for Lab work

This model is an attempt to simulate what is commonly referred to as the “pesticide treadmill” in agriculture and how it played out in the cotton industry in Central America after the Second World War until around the 1990s.

The cotton industry expanded dramatically in Central America after WW2, increasing from 20,000 hectares to 463,000 in the late 1970s. This expansion was accompanied by a huge increase in industrial pesticide application which would eventually become the downfall of the industry.

The primary pest for cotton production, bol weevil, became increasingly resistant to chemical pesticides as they were applied each year. The application of pesticides also caused new pests to appear, such as leafworms, cotton aphids and whitefly, which in turn further fuelled increased application of pesticides.

The treadmill resulted in massive increases in pesticide applications: in the early years they were only applied a few times per season, but this application rose to up to 40 applications per season by the 1970s; accounting for over 50% of the costs of production in some regions.

The skyrocketing costs associated with increasing pesticide use were one of the key factors that led to the dramatic decline of the cotton industry in Central America: decreasing from its peak in the 1970s to less than 100,000 hectares in the 1990s. “In its wake, economic ruin and environmental devastation were left” as once thriving towns became ghost towns, and once fertile soils were wasted, eroded and abandoned (Lappe, 1998).

Sources: Douglas L. Murray (1994), Cultivating Crisis: The Human Cost of Pesticides in Latin America, pp35-41; Francis Moore Lappe et al (1998), World Hunger: 12 Myths, 2nd Edition, pp54-55.

REM 221 - Causal Loop diagramming

Steve Conrad

419

This paper aims at describing a case where system dynamics modeling was used to evaluate the effects of information and material supply lead-time variation on sales contributions margins and operating cash conversion cycle of a commodity export business. An empirical dynamic model, loaded with econometric theory of price effect on competitive demand, was used to describe the input data. The model simulation outputs proved themselves relevant in analyzing the complex interconnections of multiple variables affecting the profitability in a commercial routine, supporting the decision process among sales managers.

SDR Case study System dynamic modelling

Marcos Fraiha

6

Clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery. Includes Forrester quotes on statistical vs SD methods and the Modeller's dilemma. Simplified version of IM-14982 combined with IM-17598 and IM-9773

Complex Decision Technologies

Geoff McDonnell

34

Marine tourism and snorkeling in the maldives

Anna

5

Attempt at viewing the interactions better burning of fossil fuels and trying to see the shift towards cleaner energy

Equations are only tested on Desmos and not based on real data

Fossil Fuel and Clean Energy

Ang Ee Xien

Community Economic Impact

Matthew Owen Deters

Nobody seems to notice bubbles until they burst. One possible reason is that those caught up in a bubble are completely blinded by the grip, the overpowering logic and force excerted by the positive feedback loop that drives it. Financial bubbles occur time and time again - and nobody seems to learn. Another example on a different time scale is an argument that spins out of control and ends in violence. The participants seem to be blind to the consequences; the immediate and imperative logic of the feedback loop imposes itself. The vortex created by the feedback loop even seems to draw in outsiders, such as new investors. Is this the reason why we don't notice bubbles? This explanation is meant to stimulate discussion!

Bubbles and Feedback Loops

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

3

I made this model to simulate how a companies revenue will change depending on the lifetime of the appliances it manufactures, in combination with the ratio of repair costs and price. It also shows the accumulation of e-waste.

Simulatie apparaten

Henny van Dongen

This model is made to illustrate the components that impact profitability on a basic level.

Profit maximizing

Henny van Dongen