Economics | Insight Maker

WIP Based on Steve Keen's Inaugural Kingston Lecture Youtube video slides models and data all at his blog

Nobody seems to notice bubbles until they burst. One possible reason is that those caught up in a bubble are completely blinded by the grip, the overpowering logic and force excerted by the positive feedback loop that drives it. Financial bubbles occur time and time again - and nobody seems to learn. Another example on a different time scale is an argument that spins out of control and ends in violence. The participants seem to be blind to the consequences; the immediate and imperative logic of the feedback loop imposes itself. The vortex created by the feedback loop even seems to draw in outsiders, such as new investors. Is this the reason why we don't notice bubbles? This explanation is meant to stimulate discussion!

Clone of Bubbles and Feedback Loops

Greg

From Walrave ISDC2014 paper Counteracting the success trap in publically owned corporations

Explore or Exploit

Geoff McDonnell

4 3 weeks ago

WIP of Rammelt's 2019 System Dynamics Review Article which has STELLA and Minsky software versions as supplements. Compare with the older IM-2011 version

Simplified Keen Goodwin Minsky Financial Instability model

Geoff McDonnell

3

Map of Geoffrey M Hodgson's 2015 Conceptualizing Capitalism book summary pdf with other ideologies added sept 2021 from new politics website

Capitalism and Ideologies

Geoff McDonnell

3

Clone of Wagdy Samir Macroeconomics work in progress IM-901 Additions and deletions based on Robert Skidelsky's description of Keynes general THeory from his Biography Vol2 p 549 -571

Keynes General Theory

Geoff McDonnell

THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2018 OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO POLLUTION based on Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

11

This model also shows the operation of a simple economy. It differs from Model 1 primarily in the representation of all goods in the economy by units of measure of a higher level of abstraction. Thus, the same model can represent economies at different levels.

The simulation demonstrates how differing rates of consumption affect Savings.

Simple Economy: Model 2

Jim Berger

3

Causal loop representation of Keynesian macroeconomics taken from the System Dynamics literature, specifically Henize 1972 MIT D-memo D-1717. See also Nathan Forrester's SF CLD Diagram from his PhD IM-165714

Keynes theory of employment and inflation

Geoff McDonnell

This is to support a discussion on money flows and growth. Money as a lubricant for the flow of embodied energy in human systems.
See also A Prosperous Way Down website

Odum Money and Energy Flows

Geoff McDonnell

State Goverment Fiscal Policy model

Eli Levine

WIP based on Bill mitchell's blogs.

Sectoral balances are relationships among money flows during an accounting period. Where we perceive accumulations of past imbalances to be accrued is another matter....

MMT Fiscal position

Geoff McDonnell

Implementation of a DSGE Model solved in a Macroeconomics class by Harald Uhlig (link), using Rational Expectations, in this case, the Hansens Real Business Cycle Model.

It shows the capacity of implementing Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Analysis using System Dynamics.

Real Business Cycle Model (DSGE)

Fernando Fernandes Neto

$This model shows the operation of a simple economy with two modifications made to Model 2 -- 1) feedback from production rate to consumption rate and 2) the use of a fractional rate input for calculating consumption rate. In summary, lower fractional rates of consumption (based on production) resu$

This model shows the operation of a simple economy with two modifications made to Model 2 -- 1) feedback from production rate to consumption rate and 2) the use of a fractional rate input for calculating consumption rate.

In summary, lower fractional rates of consumption (based on production) result in higher levels of Savings.

Simple Economy: Model 3

Jim Berger

WIP based on right care series in Lancet and OECD Tackling wasteful spending on health book

See also Medicines pipelineIM-640

Health care waste and overuse

Geoff McDonnell

A model of the ebb and flow of agricultural societies, like China's history. From Khalil Saeed and Oleg Pavlov's WPI 2006 paper See also the Generic structure Insight Map

Dynastic Cycles Model

Geoff McDonnell

AKL Ouput Model

Enrique

I have tried to capture the unemployment benefits budget in a causal loop diagram. You can make this as extensive as you want, but I have tried to focus on how unemployment benefits are financed and on the main determinants of expenditures and income. I was not (yet) able to 'close te loop' - to build the diagram up from feedback cycles.
The diagram is in Dutch.

Causal loop diagram of unemployment benefits

Henny van Dongen

Addition to Program Evaluation Insight based on Health System Efficiency WHO Europe 2016 publication includes vital signs

Health System Efficiency

Geoff McDonnell

WIP Social determinants of health from Michael Marmot's ABC 2016 Boyer Lectures on Social Justice and the Health Gap See US Data website for data and AIHW website for concepts. See also IM-83417 Marmot Essay 2017

Social Justice and the Health Gap

Geoff McDonnell

Challenge p.212 Business Dynamics, Sterman

Oil Shortage 1979 Iran Revolution

Roland Kofler

3

Scott Page's Aggregation diagram from Complexity and Sociology 2015 article see also IM-9115 and SA IM-1163

Macro micro dynamics

Geoff McDonnell

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Climate, Weather, Ecology, Economics, Population, Welfare, Energy, Policy, CO2, Carbon Cycle, GHG (green house gasses, combined effects)

As general population is composed of 85% with an education level of a 12 grader or less (a 17 year old), a simple block of components concerning the health of the planet needs to be broken down into simple blocks.

Perhaps this picture will show the basics on which to vote for a sustained healthy future

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram of Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

3

WIP replication of Khalid Saeed's draft paper presented by the Economics chapter of the SD Society in Sept 2019 youtube video

Unlinking public finance and taxation in fiat currency

Geoff McDonnell

Economics Models