Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.
The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.
SEIRD 01: COVID-19 spread
Cardiovascular disease dynamics
Proceso de contagios en COVID19
Addition of glucagon hormone action to control glucose homeostasis extended from IM-586
Clone of Glucose regulation CLD 2
Sources of Policy Resistance. From article Sterman, John D. Learning from Evidence in a Complex World Am J Public Health 2006 96: 505-514. See also fighting complexity IM-1955
Policy Resistance
The Dynamics of Human Service Delivery General Theory from the Book by Levin, Roberts, Hirsch et al. Ballinger 1975 ISBN 0-88410-132-0 See IM-621 for rich picture version
Human Service Delivery Dynamics
The model starts in 1900. In the year 2000 you get the chance to set a new emission target and nominal time to reach it. Your aim is to have atmospheric CO2 stabilise at about 400 ppmv in 2100. From Sterman, John D. (2008) Risk Communication on Climate: Mental Models and Mass Balance. Science 322 (24 October): 532-533. Older version of IM-9283.
Climate Stabilization Task - Older
Revisesuicide_prevention
intermediate version according to Mark heffernan's ithink model Aug 2017 focussed on regional mental health services Note private WIP version of this is at
IM-77395 (private)See also Suicide dynamics 4 WIP insight
Clone of Suicide Dynamics 3
Revised unfolding story of stock-flow feedback map of suicide prevention
intermediate version focussed on regional mental health services ( according to Mark heffernan's ithink /STELLA simulation model Aug 2017 Note private WIP version of this is at
IM-77395 (private)See also Suicide dynamics 4 WIP insight
Suicide Dynamics 3
Unfolding story on social effects of stress and abuse, based on integrating cycles of alienation, emotional regulation in brain development, addiction, and violence/abuse, inspired by Harry Burns IHI London 2015 keynote video on Glasgow alienation due to housing estates. Also Peggy Thoits 2010 Stress and Health article
Stress Emotion and Control
WIP for regional integration based on NHPA and IHPA activities in Australia
National Health Performance and Pricing
Clone of Clone 4of IM 27348, of JPS IM-27150 of original JPS IM-14117 See reference in diagram notes. WIP for Environment part of primary care regional model
Clone 5 The Ecology of Medical Care
Major stocks and flows of Erythropoiesis and Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agents (ESA) Dosing in Anemia due to Renal Failure from Jim Rogers. See Simulation Insight
ESA Dosing in Renal Anemia
Simplified version of IM-852 Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agents (ESA) Dosing in Anemia due to Renal Failure from Jim Rogers See Stock Flow Map Insight 810
Clone of ESA Dosing in Renal Anemia Simple Simulation
Fig 4.1 p 86 of Beyond Pleasure and Pain: How Motivation Works Book by E Tory Higgins OUP (2011).
Illustration of the relations among variables that contribute to the value experience. See also Effectiveness IM-2806
The Value Experience
WIP for Continuity of care ISO From Wikipedia Initial Insight Representation from ContSys
IM-4008 with split off
patient and professional statecharts See
IM-2846 for Agent with infectious disease and
IM-6913 for ED Physician INteraction
Clinical Process with Patient and Professional States
OASIS SOA Reference Architecture represents views from the perspectives of using, building, owning and managing the means for exchanging value, particpants claims of ownership and the rules of engagement. From http://bit.ly/wpI1yo
SOA Reference Architecture
BEACH Report 41 A decade of Australian general
practice activity 2006–07 to 2015–16 book University of Sydney 2016
Primary Care GP Activity Australia
Critical Systems Heuristics Boundary critique from Ulrich See also Critical Systems Thinking Insight
Critical Systems Heuristics
WIP for Effects of Senior Staff Weekend Rostering on ED Flows. Two areas Map simplified later to no specific areas Simulation in IM-11079
ED Weekend Flows Senior Roster
This is the Concept map at IM-735 modified to reflect the learning after system dynamics modeling at IM-393,
Thermostat Concept Map 2
WIP based on Choice modelling and Mark Paich's Book and NZ work focus on Pre-ED Presentation choices, with ED and Post-ED care. Extended based on IM-998 4 hour rule context. Can be replicated to add interventions, as in IM-6167. See IM-9178 for Addition of After hours 'as is' and 'to be' flow models for Medicare Locals
ED Presentation Choices Context
Clone of IM-24317 for adding other funding insights Im-633 and 636 and contrasting economic drivers of mental health with other health care based on JHPPL David Mechanic 2016 issue articles, esp Glied article (paywalled) Backed up generic version at IM-59166
Political Economy of Mental Health Services
WIP Stock flow representation of the first 1000 days from conception to age 2
The first 1000 days
