Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

 Learning THread for hybrid models including Grimm's ODD and Nate Osgood's ABM Modeling Process and Courses

Black and white Unfolding Stock and flow map version of IM 1498

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

Love affairs and Differential equations. From Michael J Radzicki (1993) Dyadic processes,tempestuous relationships, and system dynamics Syst. Dyn. Rev. 9 (1) :79-94 

This model shows the Pharmaceutical New Drug Pipeline based on drug release, approval and patent expiry. This pipeline is then linked to patients switching from older drugs to newer drugs based on proven indications and marketing (indication creep). Based on work by Mark Heffernan on the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme for drug subsidy.Conference paper and Larger ithink model

Adapted from Fig.5, from Ana V Diez Roux (2011) Complex Systems Thinking May Help Us Transcend Current Impasses in Health Disparities Research Am J Public Health 2011;101 1627-1634  http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/101/9/1627?etoc

The effects of subsidies and incentives for private health insurance on the mix of public and private hospital use. The central role of adverse selection/moral hazard on private health insurance sustainability. See also updated version around 2017

The Dynamics of Human Service Delivery General Theory from the Book by Levin, Roberts, Hirsch et al. Ballinger 1975 ISBN 0-88410-132-0 See IM-621 for rich picture version

A work in progress model for ED hourly arrival flows based on reported statistics by triage category with individual triage categories dis-aggregated using vectors. Based on a hospital performance report from  http://www.bhi.nsw.gov.au/publications/hospital_quarterly_3 

Split of IM-2166

Simple rich picture causal loop diagram of single and double loop learning (DLL). See Individual Learning IM-616  See also DLL simulation insight

From Margaret Stringfellow's PhD thesis from Nancy Leveson's Engineering a Safer World

WIP for Continuity of care ISO From Wikipedia Initial Insight Representation from ContSys