A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

WIP Summary of Lisa Rosenbaum's Feb 2019 NEJM 3 articles and audiocast . 

Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Components of behaviour organised into domains, from NIMH Research Domain Criteria website and BMC paper and 2013 series on current controversies in psychiatry.

A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models.

Additional of glucagon hormone action to control glucose homeostasis

A model of an infectious disease and control

An exploration of interactions among 'fuzzy' qualitative concepts that interact to produce either tolerance or violent conflict. ​Z509 p43-49 System Zoo 3 by Hartmut Bossel.

Based on Psychological Medicine Dec 2015 article Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder by A. K. Wittenborn, H. Rahmandad, J. Rick and N. Hosseinichimeh, mentioned here

Simplified Rich picture version of Tanner's Clinical Judgment Model, with the addition of clinical reasoning cycle concepts from T Levett-Jones et al Nurse Education Today 30 (2010) 515-520

DIabetes incidence inflow, Prevalence stock and deaths outflow

A simple glucose regulation causal loop diagram taken from Richard O. Foster, 1970: The Dynamics of blood sugar regulation, MSc thesis, MIT Dept of Electrical Engineering, available on the MIT System Dynamics Group Literature Collection and in the MIT Electronic Libraries. See IM-587 for Addition of Glucagon

From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.

WIP Stock Flow representation of Panarchy Adaptive Cycles

Model for Rehab 2139 Board Game by Mark Heffernan and Lynette Lee

Patients on Treatment represented as people in a swimming pool. Fast Switchers change costumes. Lapsed Users sit by the pool. Misdiagnosed people are in the wrong pool. Extended from IM-305

From Rudolph JW Morrison JB and Carroll JS (2009) The Dynamics of Action-Oriented Problem Solving: Linking Interpretation and Choice. Academy of Management Review 34 (4) p733-756 Available online . This paper won the Forrester Award for 2012 and the presentation talk video is available. The presentation  paper abstract is available in System Dynamics Review 2013 here

This is a systems model that allows groups of professionals to discuss 'prevention at scale' opportunities and the implications of numbers 'needed to treat' in any local population. In terms of public health interventions this equates to reach, compliance and efficacy, which are usually lower than one might suspect.

An overview of Thomas A Goudge's Book on The Thought of CS Peirce Dover NY 1950 and Thomas Knight's Book Charles Peirce NY 1965. See also causality insight

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Model combining system dynamics and agent based modeling. Based on Prochaska's Transtheoretical Model of Behaviour Change. See also preceding SD Version IM-574

From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.

Dynamic system underlying project life cycles From Roberts Edward B The Dynamics of Research and Development p5 Harper & Row NY 1964

Jack Homer's model via ithink and Mark Heffernan.  From Jack's  paper Worker burnout: a dynamic model with implications  for prevention and control System Dynamics Review 1985 1(1)42-62. See IM-641 for the Causal loop diagram