Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

We add simple containment meassures that affect two paramenters, the Susceptible population and the rate to become infected.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.

The validation process hence becomes critical, and allows to estimate the different parameters of the model from the data we obtain. This simulation approach allows to obtain somethings that is crucial to make decisions, the causality. We can infer this from the assumptions that are implicit on the model, and from it we can make decisions to improve the system behavior.

Yes, simulation works with causality and Flows diagrams is one of the techniques we have to draw it graphically, but is not the only one. On https://sdlps.com/projects/documentation/1009 you can review soon the same model but represented in Specification and Description Language.

Click +View Story on Bottom Left to unfold his wide view of Emergency care patient flows IM-6072 used as context to add confounders and potential indirect effects. See also IM-1010 for hospital fixes that fail, wiki for general Systems Archetypes and wiki for Leverage Points (There is also a health leverage points WIP wiki page)

An exploration of interactions among 'fuzzy' qualitative concepts that interact to produce either tolerance or violent conflict. ​Z509 p43-49 System Zoo 3 by Hartmut Bossel.

A simple generic rich picture view of interactions among concerned people with needs services and resources and abilities (including learning), which can be used as a pattern for many individual health care insights.

A model of an infectious disease and control

version of Suicide 4 insight  focussed on PTSD in Veterans

Based on Psychological Medicine Dec 2015 article Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder by A. K. Wittenborn, H. Rahmandad, J. Rick and N. Hosseinichimeh, mentioned here

Clone of IM-91683 from jacqui and vincy Summary of paper map produced by participants at the compelling case for prevention workshop 6 june 2017. 

From Rudolph JW Morrison JB and Carroll JS (2009) The Dynamics of Action-Oriented Problem Solving: Linking Interpretation and Choice. Academy of Management Review 34 (4) p733-756 Available online . This paper won the Forrester Award for 2012 and the presentation talk video is available. The presentation  paper abstract is available in System Dynamics Review 2013 here

Additional of glucagon hormone action to control glucose homeostasis

An exploration of interactions among 'fuzzy' qualitative concepts that interact to produce either tolerance or violent conflict. ​Z509 p43-49 System Zoo 3 by Hartmut Bossel.

A model of thermostat action including conversions between heat and temperature and outside temperature. See also, after this model, how the concept map of a thermostat at IM-735 changed to the concept map at IM-736

Work in progress with Jim Rogers

WIP Stock flow representation of the first 1000 days from conception to age 2

A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models.

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

This is a first attempt at identifying the actors that may need to be involved in the development of the model - at one stage or other.

Based on G.P. Cimellaro et al. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 3639–3649 paper

Multilevel context mechanisms and outcomes for hospital infection control

Based on Chris Argyris 2010 Book Organizational Traps Oxford University Press, built around single and double loop learning picture insight 

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.

WIP based on Geoffrey Brennan's Selection and the Currency of Reward chapter expanded from IM-396