An infinite number of mathematicians walk into a bar. The first one tells the bartender he wants a beer. The second one says he wants half a beer. The third one says he wants a fourth of a beer. The bartender puts two beers on the bar and says “You guys need to learn your limits.” From Wild About Math

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

Simple rich picture causal loop diagram of single and double loop learning including experiential learning concepts. Launchpad for Learning

WIP based on Choice modelling and Mark Paich's Book and NZ work focus on Pre-ED Presentation choices, with ED and Post-ED care. Extended based on IM-998 4 hour rule context. Can be replicated to add interventions, as in IM-6167. See IM-9178 for Addition of After hours 'as is' and 'to be' flow models for Medicare Locals

WIP Clone of IM-94482 Early Childhood Intervention with added Women's Health and Violence frorm Montesanti2015 mapping article

Grimm's ODD and Nate Osgood's ABM Modeling Process and Courses See also Pattern Oriented Modelling IM-3834

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

WIP based on conversations with Jim Rogers

WIP ideas for group model building representation See later Australian Version Hybrid  Insight

WIP for Continuity of care ISO Old Version From Wikipedia Replaced by IM-4008

A restatement of the ISDC Nijmegen 2006 paper Exploring the Political and Economic Dimensions of Health Policy This may benefit from simplification and using cultural theory. See IM-57161 for extension

Dieses konzeptionelle Model ohne Simulation gibt einen stark vereinfachten Überblick über wichtige Bestandteile der endokrinen Stressreaktion.

Broad and detailed Linked concept version of Tanner's Clinical Judgment Model, with the addition of clinical reasoning cycle concepts from T Levett-Jones et al Nurse Education Today 30 (2010) 515-520 and Kathie Lasater (2007) Clinical Judgment Development: Using Simulation to Create an Assessment Rubric. Journal of Nursing Education 46(11)p 496-503

From Powers et al 2011 paper and Mansell's video

A SEIR Model of SARS Pandemic With Isolation and Quarantine, based on Introduction to Computational Science by Shiflet and Shiflet

A work in progress model for ED daily average flows based on reported statistics by triage category with all triage categories aggregated. Based on a hospital performance report from  http://www.bhi.nsw.gov.au/publications/hospital_quarterly_3 

A simple generic rich picture view of interactions among concerned people with needs services and resources and abilities (including learning), which can be used as a pattern for many individual health care insights.

WHO FBE WIP Hospitals Safe from Disasters

Modelling prevention and treatments to mitigate mortality from cardiovascular disease.

Rich picture version of causal loop diagram for medication errors, showing the importance of reporting, analyzing and fixing knowledge and process errors. Medication errors will tend to grow due to the use of more medications in more complex patients. This is exacerbated by the loss of staff knowledge by turnover and goal erosion in places with harmful errors.

Version of Suicide 3 insight   with known and unknown splits

WIP Ideas from Science Special Issue May 2014

Hypertension Generic Patient Flow Causal Loop Diagram version of Insight 305