Extension of IM-7981 with dynamics of daily ward discharges and did not waits. For an adjusted bed capacity stock see IM-14144.For backlog and services see IM-8382

WIP ​Based on TAble 1 Jackson 2014 article

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

A model of an infectious disease and control

Based on a book chapter by Rosemarie Sadsad based on her PhD Thesis. See also other Insights tagged Multiscale and Realist ( IM-3546 and IM-3834 are embedded here)

BUilt on IM-12140 to illustrate Strategic (blue) Tactical (orange) and Operational (yellow) time scales of decisions affecting Regional Renal Services Performance, including Workforce. Also informed by IM-318 and IM-1003

From Tarek KA Hamid's Book Thinking in Circles About Obesity Springer 2009

FBE WIP

Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

The current Causal loop diagram

Causal loop diagram patient centric version of Insight 691, unfolding the complexity of medication management.

This is the Concept map at IM-735  modified to reflect the learning after system dynamics modeling at IM-393, 

Test Sensitivity and Specificity see ROC wikipedia and Tom Fawcett's 2006 article introduction to ROC Analysis, Can be linked to Brunswik Lens IM-1401

WIP Summary of Miller 2015 PCD article for the Compelling Case for Prevention Project Scoping Study.

Interacting nested fast and slow adaptive cycles from Panarchy Book  ,Resilience thinking Book Brian Walker and David Salt Island Press 2006 and the http://www.resalliance.org/ Website, See also What is Panarchy at http://bit.ly/H9RFkL

WIP based on Cultural Theory M Thompson, R Ellis and A Wildavsky 1982 Book p 137-140 Chapter 7 on Durkheim

Aim: To gain insight into what map and model representations in applied systems methods in IM-1267 can assist identifying and explaining the improvement strategies (leverage points) described by Donella Meadows Places to Intervene Article. The context is social learning for collective action to improve real world events. Information Sources are adapted from IM-920

Simple Bass diffusion modified from Sterman Business Dynamics Ch9. Compare with the SI infectious disease model Insight 584.

Or the self-fulfilling prophecy