WIP ideas for group model building representation See later Australian Version Hybrid  Insight

See reference in diagram notes. WIP for Environment part of primary care regional model

Rich picture version of Tanner's Clinical Judgment Model, with the addition of clinical reasoning cycle concepts from T Levett-Jones et al Nurse Education Today 30 (2010) 515-520

Clone of PPCOO IM Concept map for Concept map for the CCP Workshop 1 National Model for the Dynamic Simulation part of the Compelling Case Project

Dynamics of Emergency Department Crowding Initial View from the waiting room. Follows from IM-369 Sim and IM-340 CLD. Proceed to IM-349 

A RIch Picture unfolding representation of ED overcrowding based on Using system dynamics principles for conceptual modelling of publicly funded hospitals by HJWong et al Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication, 27 April 2011 doi:10.1057/jors.2010.164. 

A work in progress conceptual model based on Using system dynamics principles for conceptual modelling of publicly funded hospitals by HJ Wong et al Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication, 27 April 2011 doi:10.1057/jors.2010.164. Linked concepts with annotated definitions.

DIabetes incidence from population inflow, with undiagnosed and diagnosed stocks

This is a stock flow map representation From Evans RG and Stoddardt GL  1990 paper Soc Sci Med 31(12)1347-63 , also published in a book by Evans, Barer and Marmor, Why are some people healthy and others not?: The determinants of population health See IM-425 for a simulation.

Downstream and upstream responses, from Jack Homer , Gary HIrsch and Bobby Milstein. Chronic Illness in a Complex Health Economy  Syst. Dyn. Rev. 23, 313-343 (2007). Conference paper available at  http://bit.ly/JCO68V

WIP Stock Flow representation of Panarchy Adaptive Cycles

The current Causal loop diagram

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj  and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1974 p 195.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

A simple generic rich picture view of interactions among concerned people with needs services and resources and abilities (including learning), which can be used as a pattern for many individual health care insights.

FBE WIP

Hourly arrival pattern added to IM-663 A work in progress model for ED daily average flows based on reported statistics by triage category with all triage categories aggregated. Based on a hospital performance report from  http://www.bhi.nsw.gov.au/publications/hospital_quarterly_3 

See IM-8221 for Triage splits WIP

Festinger's theory of cognitive dissonance represented in feedback loops, relevant to defensive behaviours, goal conflict in PCT and mental health  From p256 Fig 4.23 of George Richardson (1991) Book Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory,. Book reviewed here 

WIP representation of thinking feeling acting and interacting

WIP based on Cultural Theory M Thompson, R Ellis and A Wildavsky 1982 Book p 137-140 Chapter 7 on Durkheim

Prochaska's transtheoretical model (TTM) of behavior change. See also Agent Based VersionIM-11578

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

updated 16/3/2020 from 5 years ago

This is a systems model that allows groups of professionals to discuss 'prevention at scale' opportunities and the implications of numbers 'needed to treat' in any local population. In terms of public health interventions this equates to reach, compliance and efficacy, which are usually lower than one might suspect.

From Powers et al 2011 paper and Mansell's video