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Challenges in sustainability are multilevel.
This diagram attempts to summarize levels of self reinforcing destructive dynamics, authors that deal with them, and point of leverage for change.

The base of the crisis is a mechanistic rather than ecological worldview. This mechanistic worldview is based on outdated science that assumed the universe to be a large machine. In a machine there is an inside and an outside. The health of the inside is important for the machine, the outside not. In an ecological view everything is interconnected, there is no clear separation in the future of self and other. All parts influence the health of other parts. To retain health sensitivity and democracy are inherent. The sense of separation from other that keeps the mechanistic worldview dominant is duality. Being cut off from spiritual traditions due to a mechanistic view of science people need access to inter-spirituality to reconnect with the human traditions and tools around connectedness, inner discovery, and compassion. Many books on modern physics and biology deal with the system view implications. "The coming interspiritual age" deals with the need to connect spiritual traditions and science.

At the bottom for the dynamic is an individual a sense of disconnectedness leads to a dependency on spending and having rather than connecting. The connecting has become too painful and dealing with it unpopular in our culture. Joanna Macy deals with this in Active Hope. 

This affluenza and disconnection is worsened by a market that floods one with advertisements aimed at creating needs and a sense of dissatisfaction with that one has.

National economies are structured around maximising GDP which means maximising consumption and financial capital movement. This is at the cost of local economies. These same local economies are needed for balanced happiness as well as for sustainability.

Generally institutions focus on maximising consumption rather than sustaining life support systems. David Korten covers this well.

Power and wealth is confused in this worldview. In striving for wealth only power is striven for in the form of money and monopoly.

Those at the head of large banks and corporations tend to be there because they exemplify this approach. They have few scruples about enforcing this approach onto everyone through wars and disaster capitalism. Naomi Klein and David Estulin documented this.

Power has become so centralized that we need this understanding to be widespread and include many of those in power. Progress of all of these levels are needed to show them and all that another way is possible.
Levels of transition needed to sustainability
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This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

Clone of Midterm - Hollings Type III Model
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wolf ~ exponential growth
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This is a basic BIDE (birth, immigration, death, emigration) model.  Not all parts are implemented, however Birth and Death are.

Clone of Bio 190: BIDE Model With Carrying Capacity
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This is a basic BIDE (birth, immigration, death, emigration) model.  Not all parts are implemented, however Birth and Death are.

Clone of Bio 190: BIDE Model With Carrying Capacity
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wolf ~ delayed logistic growth
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lynx v. snowshoe hare
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Modelo introductorio de Dinámica de Sistemas
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This is a basic model for use with our lab section.  The full BIDE options.

Cēsis līdz 2020
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This is a demonstration of how logistic growth can be modeled with either one or two stocks. However, the two-stock case shows how the implementation of the carrying capacity is somehow less arbitrary than in the one-stock case.
Logistic Growth: One and Two Stocks
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B
Predator-Prey Interactions (Wolves & Moose) QB
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This model has two main components. First is modelling the change in population composition as non-First Nations immigration increases with the opening of new mines in the region. The second is modelling the increasing income disparity between First Nations and non-First Nations as mining jobs are disproportionately gained by non-First Nations workers.

Northern Ontario Demographic and Income Trend Model
Insight diagram
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

Clone of Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
Insight diagram

This is a basic BIDE (birth, immigration, death, emigration) model.  Not all parts are implemented, however Birth and Death are.

Clone of Bio 190: BIDE Model With Carrying Capacity
Insight diagram

This is a basic BIDE (birth, immigration, death, emigration) model.  Not all parts are implemented, however Birth and Death are.

Clone of Bio 190: BIDE Model With Carrying Capacity
Insight diagram
This model explains the difference between Mountain bikes riding compared to logging in the Tasmanian forests.
Logging allows the activity in the forest with a negative demand for timber providing an income (with the price variable). The deforestation variable shows us that over time, the forest will run out if the logging keeps going on this way.
Alternatively, mountain biking allows a demand of visitors who want to see the scenary. They increase the regional tourism which is good for the community as it involves other businesses around too. The charges paid by visitors and tourists allow an income for the activity which makes it productive over time and great for TAS.
As we stimulate the model, we can see that it is better to have more visitors and more tourists rather than more logging as it will be better over time.
Maylis - Simulation of Derby Mountain bikes riding versus logging
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A simulation illustrating simple predator prey dynamics. You have two populations.

Clone of Predator Prey
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This is a basic BIDE (birth, immigration, death, emigration) model.  Not all parts are implemented, however Birth and Death are.

Clone of Bio 190: BIDE Model With Carrying Capacity
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This model is to be used with Mr. Roderick's AP biology activity on population growth. See steveroderick.net for a copy of the activity worksheet.

Use the sliders below to quickly change the initial values of components of the model.
wolf ~ boom and bust
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Clone of Clone of BirthRateDeathRateAndR
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This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. It was "cloned" from a model that InsightMaker provides to its users, at
https://insightmaker.com/insight/2068/Isle-Royale-Predator-Prey-Interactions
Thanks Scott Fortmann-Roe.

I've created a Mathematica file that replicates the model, at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker.nb

It allows one to experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

I used steepest descent in Mathematica to optimize the parameters, with my objective data being the ratio of wolves to moose. You can try my (admittedly) kludgy code, at
http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2018spring/mat375/mathematica/Moose-n-Wolf-InsightMaker-BestFit.nb

{WolfBirthRateFactorStart,
WolfDeathRateStart,
MooseBirthRateStart,
MooseDeathRateFactorStart,
moStart,
woStart} =
{0.000267409,
0.239821,
0.269755,
0.0113679,
591,
23.};

Clone of Isle Royale: Predator/Prey Model for Moose and Wolves
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Modeling forest succession in a northeast deciduous forest.
Lab1 Forestry Succession Model
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Cloned from Ash Moran's Insight 1256 Systems and Models (Hartmut Bossel) Figure 2.16. Notation matches the Appendix of Marten Scheffer's 2009 Book Critical Transitions in Nature and Society p329 

Logistic growth from Critical Transitions
5 months ago