This is a launchpad for patient flow insights for flows through the emergency department and hospital, including the broader community context. It also includes links to other insights relevant to ED flow improvement.

Adapted from Fig.4, from Ana V Diez Roux (2011) Complex Systems Thinking May Help Us Transcend Current Impasses in Health Disparities Research Am J Public Health 2011;101 1627-1634  http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/101/9/1627?etoc

Downstream and upstream responses, from Jack Homer , Gary HIrsch and Bobby Milstein. Chronic Illness in a Complex Health Economy  Syst. Dyn. Rev. 23, 313-343 (2007). Conference paper available at  http://bit.ly/JCO68V

WIP Thyroid HPA axis dynamics based on Kohanin 2022 article and Ch3.5 of Uri Alon's System Medicine book. A series of secrete and grow physiological circuits 

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

Simple Bass diffusion modified from Sterman Business Dynamics Ch9. Compare with the SI infectious disease model Insight 584.

A general model of flows between hospital and the community with workshop elements. See also IM-3200 for focus on frequent presenters with mental health issues

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

Causal loop diagram patient centric version of Insight 691, unfolding the complexity of medication management.

From blog entry understandingsociety

Meaning and Causation. Expanded from IM-1163