Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

Interacting nested fast and slow adaptive cycles from Panarchy Book  ,Resilience thinking Book Brian Walker and David Salt Island Press 2006 and the http://www.resalliance.org/ Website, See also What is Panarchy at http://bit.ly/H9RFkL

Work in progress based on PA Sorokin's Reconstruction of Humanity, moving from egoistic to altruistic personalities, social institutions and an idealistic cultural supersystem

From Michael Hiete, Mirjam Merz and Frank Schultmann (2011) Scenario-based impact analysis of a power outage on healthcare facilities in Germany IJDRBE 2,3 p222-244

WIP based on Choice modelling and Mark Paich's Book and NZ work focus on Pre-ED Presentation choices, with ED and Post-ED care. Extended based on IM-998 4 hour rule context. Can be replicated to add interventions, as in IM-6167. See IM-9178 for Addition of After hours 'as is' and 'to be' flow models for Medicare Locals

A simple generic rich picture view of interactions among concerned people with needs services and resources and abilities (including learning), which can be used as a pattern for many individual health care insights.

This model shows the dynamics of use of a new medical technology based on its scope of use and perceived relative benefit. The technology needs cumulative usage to fix its glitches, and the benefits will be diluted  as the scope of use widens.

Created in James Madison University's ISAT 341 Simulation and Modeling course by Joseph Straub and Andrew Funkhouser. Based on Mark Heffernan's Glucose-Insulin Insight Maker

Glucose Insulin Model Info:

Translated from Hormone.stm in Dynamic Modeling in the Health Sciences James L hargrove, Springer 1998, Ch 24 p255-261, by Mark Heffernan.

Jones AP, Homer JB, Murphy DL, Essien JDK, Milstein B, Seville DA.

Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling

and experimentation. American Journal of Public Health 2006;96(3):488-494.

http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/96/3/488

Based on Nate Osgood's CLD in his video on causal loop diagramming  26:09

A work in progress model for ED daily average flows based on reported statistics by triage category with all triage categories aggregated. Based on a hospital performance report from  http://www.bhi.nsw.gov.au/publications/hospital_quarterly_3 

Fig 4.1 p 86 of Beyond Pleasure and Pain: How Motivation Works Book by E Tory Higgins OUP (2011).

Illustration of the relations among variables that contribute to the value experience. See also Effectiveness IM-2806

Extension of IM-7981 with dynamics of daily ward discharges and did not waits. For an adjusted bed capacity stock see IM-14144.For backlog and services see IM-8382

WIP Conceptual map of initial scope of the effects of the ED 4 hour rule based on June WA Teleconference. See also the addition of unintended consequences at IM-7775 and the potential wider context map in IM-6167. For a simulation see IM-8237

A general model of flows between hospital and the community with workshop elements. See also IM-3200 for focus on frequent presenters with mental health issues

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj  and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1974 p 195.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

Diagrams from Greene 2017 nejm article Putting the patient back together Social Medicine, Network Medicine, and the Limits of Reductionism

Prochaska's transtheoretical model (TTM) of behavior change. See also Agent Based VersionIM-11578

Based on Psychological Medicine Dec 2015 article Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder by A. K. Wittenborn, H. Rahmandad, J. Rick and N. Hosseinichimeh, mentioned here

This is the Concept map at IM-735  modified to reflect the learning after system dynamics modeling at IM-393, 

A causal loop diagram of thermostat action  including conversions between heat and temperature and outside temperature. (Insight 394) extended to include fiddling with the thermostat controls based on differential house and outside temperatures. The simulation model is at Insightmaker 393.

Created in James Madison University's ISAT 341 Simulation and Modeling course by Joseph Straub and Andrew Funkhouser. Based on Mark Heffernan's Glucose-Insulin Insight Maker

Glucose Insulin Model Info:

Translated from Hormone.stm in Dynamic Modeling in the Health Sciences James L hargrove, Springer 1998, Ch 24 p255-261, by Mark Heffernan.

Main Page for Resilience

Created in James Madison University's ISAT 341 Simulation and Modeling course by Joseph Straub and Andrew Funkhouser. Based on Mark Heffernan's Glucose-Insulin Insight Maker

Glucose Insulin Model Info:

Translated from Hormone.stm in Dynamic Modeling in the Health Sciences James L hargrove, Springer 1998, Ch 24 p255-261, by Mark Heffernan.