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Health Care

Social Theory Metaphors

Geoff McDonnell

A Launchpad for Applied Social Work Theory Metaphors and Connections.Adapted from Table 14.3 p563 and Table 14.4 p564 of the Book: James A. Forte ( 2007), Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice  Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-94

Health Care Social

  • 7 years 1 month ago

Scratchpad of Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

updated 16/3/2020 from 5 years ago

Health Care Infection Ebola Epidemic SARS MERS COVID Pandemic

  • 1 year 2 months ago

SEIR Model of SARS

Aldo Arya Saka Mukti
A SEIR Model of SARS Pandemic With Isolation and Quarantine, based on Introduction to Computational Science by Shiflet and Shiflet
Quarantine is when someone exposed to infected people, whether infected or not, and advised to stay at home.
Isolation is when someone exposed to infected people, get infected, detected, and send to hospital.
Assumption:- No births- Dead only caused by SARS- Contact between susceptible and infected are constant. Contact does not affected by population density- Quarantine factor for susceptible and exposed is same.- Quarantine and isolation is fully efective. Someone who quarantined or isolated cannot transmit or exposed to SARS- Someone who has already recovered from SARS gained fully effective immunity, thus cannot re-infected

Health Care Pandemic SARS

  • 6 months 2 weeks ago

Capability Traps

Geoff McDonnell

Replaced by IM-752 Causal Loop Rich Picture unfolding from Repenning, N. and J. Sterman (2002). Capability Traps and Self-Confirming Attribution Errors in the Dynamics of Process Improvement. Administrative Science Quarterly, 47: 265 - 295.

Health Care Performance Capability Quality

  • 6 years 6 months ago