Diabetes Progression Published Model
Jones AP, Homer JB, Murphy DL, Essien JDK, Milstein B, Seville DA.
Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling
and experimentation. American Journal of Public Health 2006;96(3):488-494.
Multiscale modeling process
Social Theory Metaphors
A Launchpad for Applied Social Work Theory Metaphors and Connections.Adapted from Table 14.3 p563 and Table 14.4 p564 of the Book: James A. Forte ( 2007), Human Behavior and The Social Environment: Models, Metaphors and Maps for Applying Theoretical Perspectives to Practice Thomson Brooks/Cole Belmont ISBN 0-495-00659-94
End Stage Kidney Disease CLD
Scratchpad of Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman
Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman
This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.
Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases
SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus
The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people
This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions
SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping
MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them
updated 16/3/2020 from 5 years ago
Realistic and Other Evaluation Methods
Problem knowledge coupler
Regional Health Services
ED Crowding Hospitals and Beyond Linked Concepts
A work in progress conceptual model based on Using system dynamics principles for conceptual modelling of publicly funded hospitals by HJ Wong et al Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication, 27 April 2011 doi:10.1057/jors.2010.164. Linked concepts with annotated definitions.
Thinking like a nurse rich pic
SEIR Model of SARS
Quarantine is when someone exposed to infected people, whether infected or not, and advised to stay at home.
Isolation is when someone exposed to infected people, get infected, detected, and send to hospital.
Assumption:- No births- Dead only caused by SARS- Contact between susceptible and infected are constant. Contact does not affected by population density- Quarantine factor for susceptible and exposed is same.- Quarantine and isolation is fully efective. Someone who quarantined or isolated cannot transmit or exposed to SARS- Someone who has already recovered from SARS gained fully effective immunity, thus cannot re-infected
Cyclical Scientific Process
Kidney Disease Dialysis and Transplant Stock Flow and CLD
Renal Care Services Supply and Demand
Vaccine Attitudes and Cultural Theory
Replaced by IM-752 Causal Loop Rich Picture unfolding from Repenning, N. and J. Sterman (2002). Capability Traps and Self-Confirming Attribution Errors in the Dynamics of Process Improvement. Administrative Science Quarterly, 47: 265 - 295. http://jsterman.scripts.mit.edu/docs/Repenning-2002-CapabilityTraps.pdf